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MParris86
10-03-2006, 01:51 PM
Its been a rough two weeks after starting the season great. Back to the grind...

Northern Illinois -10.5 at Miami (Ohio)

I think the Huskies are starting to get on a roll here and this is a big game for them in the MAC title race. With two directional Michigan teams ahead of them, they can't afford to drop this one.

NIU has played much better in the past few weeks, riding a three game winning streak. They have torched their past three opponents (Buffalo, Indiana St, Ball State) putting up 39.7 ppg in the three wins. Last week, against Ball State, the scoreboard read 40-28, but Ball State put up two late scores on the 2nd stringers to make it look respectable. The bottom line is that NIU put up 610 yards of total offense. Garrett Wolfe is a flat-out beast and is becoming a legitimate Heisman contender after rushing for 353 yards last week. The dude is averaging 236 yards a game!

On the contrary, Miami is 0-5 and has one of the worst rushing offenses in the country, averaging 73ypg. Even that number is inflated, over the past two weeks combined the Redhawks have totaled 67 rushing yards and 1.3ypc. Miami has been held to 14 points or less in 4 of their 5 games.

Bottom line is that NIU has built up some momentum with a dangerous offense while Miami sits in the cellar unable to put points on the scoreboard. The Redhawks will fight, but I think NIU wins by two TDs.

Prediction: Northern Illinois 30 Miami 14


Tennessee -2.5 at Georgia

I watched Tennessee for the first time this year against Memphis and was impressed by their offense. Erik Ainge is a much improved QB and the Vols have some weapons in Meachem and Swain. Lamarcus Coker is a pretty good back that can churn out first downs. However, it is the big play potential for Tennessee that is winning them ball games.

The Tennessee defense has been getting better as of late and they made Memphis offense look like a big clusterfuck last Saturday, allowing only 121 yards of offense and 5 first downs.

Georgia's offense has been anemic, particularly in the past two weeks, a 14-13 win over Colorado and a 14-9 win over Ole Miss. The QB experiment with Matthew Stafford and Joe Cox is a mess, and neither is able to separate himself.

Reports are saying that normal starting QB Joe Tereshinski, who has been out since week two with a high ankle sprain, will be back this week as the starter against Tennessee. But lets be serious, its not like they've been missing their Heisman trophy QB. Tereshinski has 2 career TD passes. Plus, he is going to be rusty.

The 5-pt Ole Miss win was almost embarassing, as the Rebels had gotten blown out by 3 scores or more in each of their previous three games, all against unranked opponents.

Georgia's solid defense will slow down the Vols and homefield advantage will be a factor, but the skill players for Tennessee will make some plays. Georgia cant do the same.

Prediction: Tennessee 24 Georgia 14


South Carolina -6.5 at Kentucky

South Carolina found the formula for success last week against Auburn: Syvelle Newton. In his first game at QB since converting from WR, Newton threw for 240 yards, 2tds and ran for 44 yards. He literally picked apart the "vaunted" Auburn defense. SC's star WR, Sidney Rice was blanketed much of the game, so Newton used his other weapons, namely Kenny McKinley.

Yes, I know South Carolina still lost the game. But they outplayed the number two team in the country in many aspects of the game and most importantly established momentum and confidence.

Now they face a Kentucky defense that is allowing yards at an alarming rate. The Wildcats are allowing 461 yards of total offense per game, second worst in the country. That number actually looks alot worse if you take out Kentucky's win over I-AA Texas State....Against I-A competitiion they are allowing 524 yards of offense per game. OUCH.

If Newton and Co. can churn out yards against one of the nation's top defenses, I think they can do alot better against one of the worst. Probably quite a few points in this one, but SC is a better team looking to show they are for real.

Prediction: South Carolina 34 Kentucky 21


Alabama -29 vs. Duke

The Tide are coming in to this one riding a two game losing skid, a 1-pt loss at Arkansas and last week's 28-13 loss at the Swamp to Florida. Last week's 15-point loss to the Gators was a closely contested contest (14-13 in the 4Q) before Florida put up two late TDs to ice it.

Duke, meanwhile is 0-4 and have lost their past two games 36-0 and 37-0. Last week's loss to Virginia was against a team that hadn't put up more than 13 points in any of their previous 4 games. The Blue Devils have an atrocious offense that has been shut out three of their four games and has only put up one touchdown all season. They have the worst scoring offense in the entire country (3.3ppg).

The Tide are coming home after two tough road losses and will be taking their frustrations out on a bad opponent. They should put up at least 40 points here and Duke cant score double digits.

Prediction: Alabama 45 Duke 7


Illinois -6.5 vs. Indiana (bought 1 pt)

The Illini pulled off the upset of Michigan State last week behind the play of freshman QB Juice Williams. He threw and ran for over 100 yards each and led the game winning drive. The Illini outgained Michigan State 390-259.

On the other hand, Indiana got absolutely dismantled by Wisconsin, losing 52-17. The Badgers were up 52-0 in the third quarter and probably could have won by 70 if they didnt call off the dogs. Indiana allowed 539 yards of offense, including 330 passing yards (79% completion rate).

Both teams come in with 2-3 records. However, there is a big difference. Indiana has lost to So. Illinois (I-AA), UConn (bad) and Wisconsin (blowout). Illinois has lost to Rutgers (ranked), Iowa (ranked) and Syracuse (decent team).

Juice Williams is getting more and more confident and Illinois established something to build off with their win last week on the road against MSU. Indiana can't say the same.

Prediction: Illinois 28 Indiana 17


Thats it for now....Good luck all.

birdsfan5
10-03-2006, 01:55 PM
GL MParris

Pow
10-03-2006, 01:58 PM
im with you on all except for bama and illinois (fading or havent capped them yet)...

NIU is my play of the week

joepa66
10-03-2006, 02:09 PM
Really gotta love The Vols this week Tightend:thumbs:
Was looking at the NIU game but afraid that Miami might rise to the occasion so I laid off that game. Afraid of the NIU defense that gave us 28 points to Ball State last week.....geeze, can the Redhawks really be that bad? Hope so for you bro....GL

MParris86
10-03-2006, 02:35 PM
JoePa-

I looked into that 28 points by Ball State last weekend against NIU. Ball State put up two early touchdowns (one on a short field following a fumble). They then proceeded to go: punt, punt, punt, turnover on downs, fumble on their next five drives. By that time the score was 40-14 and into the fourth quarter.

Ball State then put up 129 of their 395 total yards and 14 of their 28 points in the fourth quarter against NIU's backups. Thats why the game and stats look alot closer than indicated.

Ball State has a much better offense than Miami anyway, at least IMO. They are averaging over 28 ppg. If NIU can slow them down for most of the game, Im confident they can do the same to a stagnant Miami offense.

Waldo
10-03-2006, 03:19 PM
GL MParris,


I'm with you on most of it.

The War Dogs
10-03-2006, 03:21 PM
:yeah:

MParris86
10-03-2006, 04:26 PM
Thanks fellas. Good luck to you this weekend!

Gotta play this one...


Tulsa -4.5 vs. So. Miss. WON

I'm not going to bother with a huge writeup but I don't like So. Miss going on the road in back-to-back weeks and pulling out wins. Tulsa is a better team than UCF was last week with a much better offense. With the exception of the INT return for a touchdown, the So. Miss offense only managed 12 points.

I like Tulsa QB Paul Smith. Throwing for about 240 yards per game, 66% completion rate, 3-1 TD to INT ratio. Thats good enough for me. He leads an offense that is averaging over 30ppg and 417 yards per contest.

If this game was at So. Miss, I probably woulda laid off. But a nationally televised game at home for Tulsa, who has been off for about 10 days now and itching to play...against a team thats back on the road....I'll bite.

Prediction: Tulsa 28 So. Miss 20

TheBeholdah
10-03-2006, 04:37 PM
with you on tulsa and tennessee, uga getting qb back shouldnt matter too much,

JoshKnows46
10-03-2006, 05:41 PM
Gl MP:gulp:

MParris86
10-04-2006, 10:18 AM
Big win last night, I needed it. Congrats to those on Tulsa last night. That Paul Smith is a nice QB. :thumbs:

CuseFan10
10-04-2006, 10:57 AM
Nice hit on Tulsa! GL this weekend!

realitybias
10-04-2006, 11:04 AM
Yeah, Tulsa paid off well last night. Congrats dude.

Bucknut
10-04-2006, 12:18 PM
I like the NIU pick especially with that RB......I've seen more people in the stands at a Ed'S vs Iggy game than you will in Oxford.

NIU rolls

MParris86
10-04-2006, 12:27 PM
Thanks Cuse, Josh, Reality....good luck to you guys the rest of the week.

Thanks Bucknut....are you from Cleveland?

On a separate note, here is what Pat Forde of ESPN wrote in his latest article:

Most Overrated: Georgia Defense

The Dash isn't here to diss the Dawgs' D, but any unit that has played Colorado (114th nationally in scoring offense), Mississippi (111th), UAB (108th), South Carolina (80th) and I-AA Western Kentucky had better be No. 1 in the country in points allowed. If the offense doesn't improve quickly, Georgia will lose at least four games between now and season's end.

Good piece of info for those on the Vols this weekend.
:thumbs:

VolinArizona
10-04-2006, 01:14 PM
Originally posted by MParris86

Most Overrated: Georgia Defense

The Dash isn't here to diss the Dawgs' D, but any unit that has played Colorado (114th nationally in scoring offense), Mississippi (111th), UAB (108th), South Carolina (80th) and I-AA Western Kentucky had better be No. 1 in the country in points allowed. If the offense doesn't improve quickly, Georgia will lose at least four games between now and season's end.

Good piece of info for those on the Vols this weekend.
:thumbs: [/B]

I'm glad someone from the national media finally wrote about what Vol fans have been screaming for a week!

Bucknut
10-04-2006, 01:41 PM
born and raised in C town.........went to St. Ed's

williwonka05
10-04-2006, 01:46 PM
Here's to getting back on track this weekend :thumbs:

MParris86
10-04-2006, 01:53 PM
Call me crazy for playing this HS level game....but I think it could be good:

Florida International -3.5 at North Texas (1 unit)

This is a small play for me, maybe just to "test" my capping skills.
Just to get it out of the way, FIU is 0-5 and North Texas is 1-4. Both teams are god-awful.

I think FIU sucks less, however, despite being winless on the year. I looked at FIU's game log from this year and I was actually surprised. They started out the season with two straight one point losses, and then lost their next two games by 4 and 5 points respectively. Needless to say, they have kept games close. Their opponents in those games were MTSU, BG, S. Florida, and Maryland. Not the cream of the crop by any means, but not complete bottom feeders or I-AA teams.

North Texas, on the other hand, has a 24-6 win over SMU on their resume, but the rest of it is BAD. Their other four games were losses by 49, 25, 20, and 35 points. Their 49pt loss to Texas in the first game is understandable, but the other ass whippings they suffered were to Tulsa, Akron, and MTSU. Those are about the same caliber of teams that FIU lost to less that a touchdown. Their only common opponent, MTSU, beat FIU by a 7-6 score, yet put a hurtin' on the Mean Green by the tune of 35-0.

Statistically speaking, North Texas has the WORST total offense in the country, averaging only 177 yards per game. On the other hand, Florida International isn't much higher up the ladder, but they are averaging 267 yards per game. Thats a difference of 90 yards. Scoring wise, FIU's average score thus far is 14-21, while North Texas is 9-31. So while FIU's average deficit is one touchdown, North Texas' is over 3 touchdowns.

Remember Jamario Thomas, the North Texas RB that ran for 1800 yards in 2004? Yeah, he still plays! Two years ago he was a superstar in the making: Thomas led the nation in rushing with an average of nearly 190 yards per game and posted five straight 200+ yard outings, which tied an NCAA record. He was one of just four freshmen in NCAA history to gain at least 1,600 yards in a season.

Well those days are LOOOONNNGGG gone. Thomas, now a redshirt sophomore, is averaging only 66 yards per game this season and has two rushing touchdowns. In two of NT's games, Thomas was held to 40 yards or less despite plenty of carries.

Now I don't know if my above dissertation will be accurate or not, but "hey, why not?" Its a small play for me, but I like the looks of it on paper. So go F-I-U-rself!

Prediction: FIU 23 North Texas 16

MParris86
10-04-2006, 01:57 PM
Originally posted by Bucknut
born and raised in C town.........went to St. Ed's

Sorry to hear that. :bag: :ohman:

brvannoy
10-04-2006, 02:16 PM
I like your picks. I'm thinking about throwing Illinois, NIU, and SC on a parlay. :yeah: :yeah: :yeah:

MParris86
10-04-2006, 03:44 PM
Thanks brvannoy....

I've been playing 3 team, 10-pt teasers the past few weeks and have been hitting them, so I'll play another this week:

Boise State -26 vs. La. Tech (Probably will win by 40+)
BYU -17.5 vs. SD State (Aztecs are hurting & too much Beck)
Houston -7 vs. UL-Lafayette (Cougars are a legit program)

All three teams are at home, which is nice. We'll see what happens...

MParris86
10-06-2006, 03:17 PM
I had 10 bucks sitting in my account so I'll roll the dice.

8 team progressive parlay. 75-1 to hit 8/8; 10-1 to hit 7/8; 2-1 to hit 6/8.

Alabama -29 vs. Duke
Illinois -7.5 vs. Indiana
Boise State -36 vs. La. Tech
Northern Illinois -11 vs. Miami Ohio
BYU -27.5 vs. SDSU
Tennessee -2.5 vs. Georgia
Houston-17 vs. UL Lafayette
Washington +20..5 vs. USC

Just for fun. Maybe I'll get lucky. :dunno: