JoePa's CFB Week #6

[joepa66]

UPDATED YTD: 11 - 7 - 3
UNITS: +4.75
Last Week: 2 - 1 - 1

TENNESSEE -2.5 @ Georgia WINNA
CINCINNATI -6 vs. Akron PUSHA
OREGON +6 vs. Cal LOOZA
CENTRAL MICHIGAN +4 @ Toledo WINNA
LOUISIANA STATE -1 @ Florida LOOZA

WRITE-UPS BELOW......

OVEN MITT YTD: 2 - 1
Last Week: 1 - 0

TULSA -5 vs. Southern Miss WINNA
It's a: "Yes, Yes, Yes"!
WISCONSIN -20 vs. Northwestern WINNA
It's a "Definitely"!

[BoKnows]

:yeah: Jpa really like all three of those and will most likely be on all three come the weekend hopefully the later 2 which I have not played yet dont move to much while I cap em' but at first glance they look solid!!GL!

[TheBeholdah]

very solid joey, im goin big on tennessee :thumbs: road warrior style

[Pow]

next to NIU, the cincy pick is my pick of the week

[SDSurfn]

Oregon. Love Oregon. Freakin love Oregon.


Gimmme gimmme gimme Oregon, and gimme the points, and gimme Oregon on the moneyline!!!!!!


Giddy up!!!!

[joepa66]

Oregon @ Cal

Saturday's game should showcase plenty of offensive fireworks as the Ducks and Bears enter the game ranked at the top of the PAC-10 in multiple offensive categories. Cal is second in scoring at 38.4ppg while Oregon is first at 40.2ppg. The Golden Bears lead the league in passing with 298.4ypg and the Ducks are 2nd with 269.5ypg, while UO leads in total offense 497ypg-452ypg. However, the Ducks own a more solid D and have played a much better schedule, and lead the PAC-10 in passing D allowing just 145.2ypg (11th nationally), are 23rd in sacks per game with 3, hold opponents to 50% pass completions which is also 11th nationally. And their O can really cover some ground as well, ranked 8th with 227.5ypg rushing and are 2nd in yards per carry with 6.19yards. Plus QB Dennis Dixon is 89/137 for 1032 yards, 6TDs and just 2INTs. Soph receiver Jaison Williams lead the conference with 28 catches for 462yards or 115.5ypg. Cal's D has yet to stifle the pass yielding 227.6ypg which ranks 93rd overall. UO is 4-1ATS vs. Cal, covered in the last 4 meetings in a row, and have won the stats in all their games this season. Against common opponent Arizona State, UO won 48-13 outgaining ASU 574-175 and only gave up 33 yards passing to the Devils, while Cal won 49-21, and the Bears were outstatted 414-409, and gave up a comparison of 177 yards passing and were the beneficiaries of 3 Sun Devils turnovers. UO also had to travel to the valley of the Sun while Cal faced ASU in Berkeley. Bear QB Nate Longshore is 77-111 for 69%, 1136 yards, 14TDs and 3INTs in his last four games, BUT against Portland State, Oregon State, Arizona State and Minnesota. TB Marshawn Lynch also has 4 straight 100 yard games. On paper, Oregon appears to be much more efficient on offense, scoring on 21 of 23 red zone trips (91.3%), scoring all 7 trips vs. ASU and all 3 trips vs. Oklahoma. DE Dexter Manley II had 3 sacks for -15 yards last week while WR Williams seeks his 4th straight 100 yard receiving game. It's homecoming in Berkeley, a place where UO is 24-14-2, and have won 8 of the last 9 times.

[joepa66]

Cincinnati vs. Akron

The Bearcats are 8-3SU in their last 11 HOME games, while the wrong way Zips are 2-4ATS in their last 6 ROAD games. After a great start @ Penn State and NCState, Akron has seemingly lost its way losing to Central Michigan even though winning the stats 436-291, beat NTexas St. 33-13 but losing the stats 287-278, and lost for the first time in 9 tries vs. arch rival Kent State 37-15 giving up a whopping 461 yards of total offense and 305 yards passing! That's by the most yardage they've relinquished on the season.....180 more than PSU and 170 more than the Wolfpack. Record setting QB Luke Getsy has only completed 52% of his passes but for 253ypg (23rd), and has been sacked 3.6x per game (111th), while the Zips have also struggled to find a running game to take the pressure off Getsy ranking 108th with 77ypg and just 2.4 yards per rush which ranks 111th! Now the Zips have to face a pretty good Cincy D that averages 3.2 sacks per game (16th) and which forces 2 turnovers per game (40th). UC is ranked 33rd nationally in run defense with 102ypg, 58th in totall defense (322ypg). The UC secondary has 6INTs this season (22nd) and lead the nation in fourth down efficiency a perfect 0-6. Cincy is also and unfriendly host allowing just 66 yards on the gound at HOME and 271 yards of total offense. The Bearcat losses have been to Pitt, #1 ranked Ohio State and 11th ranked VaTech. QB Dustin Grutza has completed 69% of his passes (37/53) over the last 3 games but didn't attempt a pass until the 2nd quarter vs. Miami, OH last week. UC has emphasized its newfound running game running for 121 yards vs. the Hokies and 253 yards vs. the Redhawks in a 24-10 win. Against VaTech, the Bearcats led deep into the 3rd quarter in Blacksburg, covered the +27.5 spread in a 29-13 loss, and lost the stats battle by just 53 yards, 333-280. In that two-game span the Bearcats have averaged 4.7 yards per carry. And watchout for UC return man Dominick Goodman, who has real Cattitude averaging 32.9 yards per kick return which is 7th in the nation. You have to wonder if the Zips are interested in a non-conference tussle right now as they try to right the ship which is 0-fer in the MAC, they were preseason consenus picks to win the East crown, and have dates with Miami,OH, Toledo, and BGSU up next!

[NittanyLions94]

Wow, that Tennessee orange is tough to read!

GL this week Joe :thumbs: :thumbs:

[CuseFan10]

Good stuff JoePa! BOL this upcoming weekend!

[joepa66]

Central Michigan @ Holy Toledo

The Chippewas are 6-1ATS in their last 7 ROAD games, and are on the brink of opening MAC conference play 3-0 for just the 8th time in 28 MAC seasons. CMU has beaten Akron 24-21 and Eastern Michigan 24-17, while Toledo's only MAC matchup of the season was a 31-10 loss at Western Michigan. Both teams are 2-3 on the season, CMU having lost too non-conference foes Boston College 31-24, @ Michigan 41-17, and @ Kentucky 46-36. The Rockets have non-league losses to Iowa State 45-43 and Pitt 45-3 (last week), with wins over McNeese State 41-7 and Kansas 37-31. In their last two games, the Chipps have rolled up 1040 yards of total offense, 687 of them via the pass. Frosh QB Dan Lefevour came off the bench and threw for 360 yards and 4TDs after CMU spotted Kentucky a 21-0 lead last Saturday. LeFevour tossed 8 passed to Frosh WR receiver Bryan Anderson for 137 yards, better than 17 yards per catch, and Anderson has 23 receptions for 357 yards in the last 3 weeks. CMU outgained KY 558-373 in that game! With the exception of the McNeese State game, UT's offensive production has waned severely since their opener vs. ISU. The steady decline is illustrated by the Rockets drop off in passing numbers from 367 yards to 218 yards vs. Western Michigan, 136 yards vs. Kansas, 186 vs. outmatched McNeese St., to 106 yards against Pitt. Total offensive produced has also declined from 412 yards vs. the Clones to 306 at WMU, 237 vs. KU in a game they were outstatted 391-237 but were recipients of 5 Jayhawk gifts, to 230 total yards vs. Pitt. UT is very unsettled at the QB slot as starter Clinton Cochran has missed the last 2 games with an injury and is listed as doubtfull this week. Toledo will need better execution than it displayed at Pitt, as the Rockets lost two fumbles and gave up two interceptions in the loss. True freshman Aaron Opelt went most of the way at quarterback and was 15-of-30 for 92 yards and led UT with 56 yards rushing. Untested Brandon Summers started the game but went 3 of 5 for 14 yards with an INT and a fumble. Seems CMU's frosh tandem had the better of it last week. This game could mark the first time since the '93 & '94 seasons that the Chipps defeated UT in consecutive years. CMU has covered the last 2 meetings in a row. The school with the ugliest helmets in the MAC are 22nd in passing with 256ypg and have done it with 411 yards vs. Kentucky, 276 vs. EMU, 188 vs. Mich, and 243 vs. BC. CMU Coach Brian Kelly said the MAC race was going to be determined by matchups with UT and NIU so this is a must win as they stand at 2-0 and UT at 0-1. CMU is in the final leg of the 3-game road swing before homecoming vs. Ball State and then hosting BGSU.

Def jumpin on the Oregon game...BOL

[Underdog88]

GL JoePa-like the card, hpefully it's profitable :gulp:

[joepa66]

Tennessee @ Georgia

On paper Georgia's stats look great and are better than UT's. The Dawgs have a better rushing average although the difference is miniscule 133.4ypg - 133ypg, their pass D is better 133.6ypg - 157.4 ypg, their run D is better 99.8ypg - 126.8ypg, and they only give up 6.8ppg compared to the Vols 16.6ppg. UT does have a better offensive scoring average with 32ppg and passing average with 296.2ypg vs. UGA's 25.6ppg and 163.6ypg passing. The real difference in the numbers resides in the strength of schedule as UT's opponents are a combined 13-8 with 3 teams fielding winning records (Fla 5-0, Cal 4-1, & Air Force 2-1), while UGA's opponents are 8-16 with only South Carolina having a winning record at 3-2. And the Dawgs did play 2-2 Div. IAA Western Kentucky. UT has outgained their schedule with 2146 yards of total offense to 1421 yards or a decided 429ypg - 284ypg average, while UGA hasn't been as overwhelming at 1485 yards of total offense to 1167 for the opposition for a slim 297ypg - 233ypg advantage. The Dawgs have certainly underachieved although they are 5-0 and were outstatted 313-284 in a hasty 14-13 comeback win over 0-5 Colorado as 26.5pt. favs, and only outgained 1-4 Ole Miss by 5 measly yards, 248-243 in a 14-9 win as 17.5pt. Favs. UT's ROAD warrior offense is averaging 361ypg (4th), their ROAD passing D is ranked 2nd nationally with just 79ypg, and they are 10th in ROAD rushing D allowing just 42ypg. Those stats don't help UGA's chances with the 94th ranked HOME rushing offense of 112ypg and HOME passing of 171ypg. UT is big play capable and rank 7th in the land per pass completion with 15ypc, and 3rd in pass completions at 71%! Not since 1997 (Peyton Manning's junior year), has UT relied so heavily on the pass averaging 163 more yards passing than rushing....296ypg - 133ypg. WRs Robert Meachem and Jayson Swain are the top receiving tandem in the country with 955 yards and 10TDs. Meachem leads the nation with with 577 yards, 5.4 catches per game, and is 3rd in passing yards per game at 115.4. QB Ainge leads SEC passers with 277.8ypg and is 5th in the nation in passing efficiency. Don't go to sleep on defense as UT is #2 in the nation on third down conversions 37-62 for 59%. Overall UT's is ranked 50th in pass D allowing 57% completions and 157ypg (22nd), and the Dawgs are not committed to just one QB and it has hurt them badly. The unbelievable stat is that the Vols D has allowed only 3 opposing rushers to get at least 100 yards in their last 29 games.....with the average top rusher gaining 71.9ypg. Unreal! They won last time in Athens 19-14 but have only won once since 2000. The Vols are the only SEC team with all their non-conference games out of the way, which at times can be a distraction from the conference race. Wake up or get out of the way Georgia!

[NCSUWolfpack2002]

GL Joepa! I am looking at serveral of those. My local book won't let me play until later in the week. Hope the lines don't move to much.

[shorts]

Looks good as always Joepa! Just might follow ya on a couple!
After all that work you deserve a Firebrewed!!

BOL to ya bro!!

[birdsfan5]

GL Joepa

[joepa66]

LSU @ Florida

LSU's defense is ranked among the top three in the country in four defensive categories. The Tigers go into Saturday’s contest with fifth-ranked Florida ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense (193.4 yards per game) and pass efficiency defense (73.5 rating). The Bayou Bengals are No. 2 nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 7.4 points per game and they are No. 3 in pass defense, holding opponents to only 124.2 yards per contest. Through five games, the Tigers have surrendered just 37 points. In addition, the Tigers have yielded only 967 yards since the start of the season for a 193ypg averge. The Tigers are also ranked No. 5 in the nation in both interceptions and sacks. The Tigers have intercepted nine passes this year and they have also recorded 19 sacks. Offensively, the Tigers lead the SEC and rank 10th in the nation in scoring with 38ppg. Only LSU’s national championship team in 2003 scored more points (201) over the first five games of the season. LSU, behind the play of quarterback JaMarcus Russell, is ranked 5th in the nation in pass efficiency. The Tigers have completed 90 of 134 (67%) for 1,337 yards and 10 touchdowns. Russell continues to have the hot hand at quarterback as he has climbed all the way to 2nd in the nation in pass efficiency. Russell, was last week’s SEC Offensive Player of the Week, has connected on 81 of 115 passes (70%) for 1,246 yards, 10 touchdowns and just one interception. He has an efficiency rating of 188.4 Defensively, LSU safety Craig Steltz has intercepted a pass in four straight games. Tiger defensive end Tyson Jackson leads the SEC and ranks 9th in the nation in sacks with 5.5 to his credit. Jackson is averaging 1.1 sacks per contest. Not going to say much more about LSU…..now for Florida: QB Chris Leak has completed 84-130 passes for 1240 yards (248ypg), 14 TDs and 4 INTs. The glaring stat that stands out is that he has been sacked 8x this season through 5 games, the Gators allow an average of 1.6 sacks per game (47th) and average 2 TOs per game (68th) and make numerous mistakes getting penalized an average of 9x per contest (117th) for 60.8 yards (99th). They can ill afford to be overly cautious or careless this weekend! The Bengals average 2.2 takeaways per game (32nd), average 3.8 takeaways per game (5th), have a pretty stout run defense yielding on 69.2ypg (11th), just 2.3ypc (10th), are 3rd in pass completion defense at 45.5%, 3rd in pass yardage allowed (124.2ypg) and 1.8INTs per game (5th). It’s no surprise that the Gators have good numbers as well vs. the run because they have played pass-oriented offenses with the likes of Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, UCF and So. Miss. The numbers are skewed but Florida ranks 4th against the run giving up 50.2ypg and just 2.02ypc. The Gators aren’t even thinking about shutting down LSU’s offense and understand that the game hinges on their own offensive abilities vs. the Tigers D…Right from the UF web site...Chris Leak on the LSU game this weekend…“We can’t have early turnovers or miscues in this game. Obviously great teams like LSU will capitalize on them and put points on the board. We have to make sure we stay on schedule and make plays that need to be made. LSU is a great team defensively. They have a lot of veterans. They are a disciplined defense and do a great job running to the ball. We will have to play our best football to be successful.”

[TheBeholdah]

like em joey, i think this is ur breakout week :thumbs:

[JoshKnows46]

Best of luck Joepa....I already played three of those, and I am leaning to a cincinnati play:thumbs:

[joepa66]

The Mitt has spoken.....top of this thread! AND, he'll have another play on Thursday for Saturday! GL guys:thumbs:

Thanks guys....hopefully we'll all be at the pay window with wheel barrows after this week:yeah:

[FlyersFan]

JoeP- GL!...and what do you care if i am at the OSU/UM game...you never show up anyway....lmao.....pretty cool after the Iowa game we hung out and waited for the team to come out....shook hands with Fowler, but Corso wanted nothing to do with me after i shouted him down from about 10 feet away from about the 5 minute mark of the 4th quarter on. I hit your relative up for some of his KFC, but he wouldn't part with it.....man i could have used some chicken fingers at that point in the night to soak up some of the alcohol....lol....I promised BB i would wait by the PUR buses next year with him for a game...lol....GL!...:thumbs:

[Rammajamma32]

Loving your LSU and Oregon picks. I would be on Tennessee too if I had to make a play, but who knows which teams will show up in that one. Best of luck this week my friend!

[ming the merciless]

Here we go. MAC in effect! I played Kentucky last week vs. CMU.
Kentucky was up 28-0 before CMU came back for the bacdoor cover. I Like CMU. cover against some good teams. Boston college?

[ming the merciless]

Big play of the week Ball State-4 vs. buffalo.
Buffalo pretty good ATS this year, believe it or not. Last year, buffalo was among the ranks of Rice, Temple, Utah ST, Tulane. Just horrible teams,, Buff has new coach and they play with some desire this year, But Ball state takes em out this weekend.

[Pow]

Originally posted by ming the merciless
Big play of the week Ball State-4 vs. buffalo.
Buffalo pretty good ATS this year, believe it or not. Last year, buffalo was among the ranks of Rice, Temple, Utah ST, Tulane. Just horrible teams,, Buff has new coach and they play with some desire this year, But Ball state takes em out this weekend.

i think so too

[williwonka05]

Good Luck this weekend my friend .... Good Work so far this year too .. :yeah: :thumbs:

[lucky strike$]

J-O-E-P-A !!!!!.central mich is playing 3rd straight game on the road ,i think a shitty team like toledo mite explode on c.m this week.. just my opinion G-O-O-D- L-U-C-K JOE!!

C.M. played thier asses off last week against kentucky,i think thier asses are SPENT.

gl

[K-9 Buckeye]

Good luck with your picks Joepa.

In another thread I posted that I like Penn St. to cover the 2-3 pts. at Minnesota. You haven't that game so I'm wondering if perhaps you are a bit leary about that game. Are you?

[Q-Unit]

how much you asking for oven mitt.

i'll lease him from ya

[irishmike]

thanks for all the good info
good luck!

[joepa66]

Q-Lio
OVEN MITT is gonna start having a Red Phone that you can call right 15mins. before kickoff so you can get his picks. LOL....He'll bail ya out but ya gotta treat him right, know any cute hot pads? LMFAO

No Problem IrishMike...

K-9...no PSU picks for me....I do have a rule I follow....never bet on your favorite team cause they'll screw ya!

I'm staying away from BSU they tend to play to the level of their opponent, or have in the past!

GL Lucky, Josh, Pow, Beholdah and Wonk....this is the week we pad our wallets....:thumbs:

[joepa66]

Flyer.....WTF, he wouldn't give you any chicken? Was he missing some fingers? Ya know those boys can eat...sure he wasn't still dining on some Hawkeye? LMAO

You go to the Michigan game, it's Drew's last home game and I WILL BE THERE dammit!:thumbs:

Are you coming for any others?

[Rothko1000]

GL ass licker! :thumbs: How about less words and more winners!! Daddy needs a new pair of shoes, bitch!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL, coke-bottles.

Kill 'em this week, pal! :thumbs:

[joepa66]

I'll give ya less words when you get a comb for that nappy head of hair....:hair: LMFAO
And, I'm working on the winners, have you checked out The Mitt lately....3-1:thumbs:

Thanks....is that you Leaf....come closer so ol grandad can see ya boy! LMAO Now have a Triple X and let's cash 'em all this week:yeah: GL


OVEN MITT HAS POSTED A SATURDAY GAME AT THE TOP OF THIS THREAD.....He's gettin ballsy after starting 1-0 of so early in the week...
:cool:

[FlyersFan]

lmao...you being there i will believe when i see it....lol...yup...gonna be there for sure....think i will skip the 6 HS games in between, though. Really glad I was able to get out to Iowa and the PSU game this year. Couple of ass whoopings....

[NittanyLions94]

I like your rule about the favorite team Joe, my rule this year seems to be bet on my favorite teams every time they take the field, lol.

Fear the Mitt.


GL buddy :yeah: :yeah:

[livin tha life]

Joe i got one question......Navy or Air Force ?

[FlyersFan]

Navy had been treading water for quite some time until coach Paul Johnson arrived on the scene in 2002. The Midshipmen lost 20 of 21 games in 2000 and 2001 before Johnson manned the helm. After his first season at Annapolis, Johnson must have wondered if he had taken on a sinking ship.

Navy continued its downward spiral during Johnson's maiden voyage, losing 10 of 12. But since then the Middies put together three straight bowl worthy seasons and won 29 of 41 games.

Navy takes the field this weekend at Air Force looking for its fourth straight series victory, both straight up and against the spread. The Falcons had grown accustomed to sinking the Midshipmen after winning six straight and 19 of 21 series clashes from 1982 to 2002.

Air Force has come up short in the last three encounters by three points. The Falcons fell short at home last season at Navy as one-point dogs, 27-24. They bowed at home in 2004 as one-point favorites, 24-21, and suffered a stunning upset at Annapolis in 2003 as 14 1/2-point favorites, 28-25.

The Midshipmen have won and 'covered' seven of their last eight versus service academies. They have also posted a 12-3 mark as underdogs and a 22-8 ATS log as road short-enders.

Air Force has been grounded in October, failing to get the cheese in 14 of its last 19.


Going to the game......should be a good one....seems like the line is about right.....IMO

[BoKnows]

FF your going to be in the springs this weekend?

[AuTiger20]

GL JoePa

I love the Badgers. they aways seem to bring me the $$$ . I am even more confident that they are an oven mitt game! I am really liking the LSU too. Lets do it!

[FlyersFan]

Originally posted by BoKnows
FF your going to be in the springs this weekend?

yeah, leaving tonight...i get into Denver about 11PM...going to be in CSprings all weekend. My cousin and his family live there. Always wanted to see a serive academy game (between 2 of them) and this is a good one to see since both are good. You live nearby?

[MtXeer]

BOL Joepa

[livin tha life]

Do you think altitude will be a factor in the fourth quarter?

[bigbag12]

GL joepa. looks solid!!

[joepa66]

Livin.....the best I can tell ya is that Oven Mitt is non-committal on the AF/Navy matchup....I asked him and he said: "Outcome Uncertain"! Sorry, he's contrary sometimes....LOL
:thumbs:

[joepa66]

Flyer...make sure ya check out Tony Norman #37 the Falcons long snapper, that's OSU's long snappers brother #58, Drew Norman! And have fun and grad yourself a "wave" bro!:thumbs:

I have FREE tickets to the Kent vs. Toledo game at KSU next weekend.....you coming? LMFAO

[livin tha life]

That silly cranky mitt. Has he been getting any hot plate ass lately? lol GL2U Joe Pa :thumbs:

[joepa66]

UPDATED YTD: 13 - 9 - 4
Last Week: 2 - 2 - 1
UNITS: +4.25


OVEN MITT YTD: 4 - 1
Last Week: 2 - 0

[FlyersFan]

JoeP- #54 was longsnapping, at least that i could see, for Air Force. Never saw #37 when i remembered to look. Maybe he got benched...lol......

[joepa66]

Damn Flyer....maybe he lost his job?! He's still #37 and here he is...

http://goairforcefalcons.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/norman_tony00.html

[FlyersFan]

Originally posted by joepa66
Damn Flyer....maybe he lost his job?! He's still #37 and here he is...

http://goairforcefalcons.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/norman_tony00.html

JoeP- #37 never was the long snapper from what i can tell...he just got some minutes in a couple games last year. #54 started every game at long snapper last year and appears to be doing all the snapping as a senior this year. And to think i kept telling everyone around me at the game that i knew #37's relative and he was THE longsnapper.....man do i have egg on my face....lmao.......looks like #54 is a senior, though, so the door is wide open next year. Hope we don't go through this again at OSU with you telling me that the other brother is the long snapper...me telling everyone around me i know who he is, only to have some other kid do all the snapping someday. Man, i don't know about you....you never show up to games, you give me false information regarding players.........Oven Mitt is your only saving grace.....lmao........

[joepa66]

Well....I KNOW that Drew is the starting LS for the Bucks...and I do know that Tony made the trip to New Mexico with AF a couple of weeks ago.....maybe he got hurt or something
:dunno:

And you just be at the Kent/Toledo game this weekend...I'll be there and I happen to have 3 extra tickets....wanna go?! AND, I WILL BE AT THE OSU/michigan game for #58's last home game and there will be a Coors Light and a jerk chicken sandwich with your name on it at the Heiney Gate...count on it!
:thumbs: :prtytme: :bbang: :pud: :eek:
Wait til ya see the babe at the smokeless tobacco tent.....WHOA BOY!