Waldo
10-02-2006, 12:33 PM
Week 5 record 2-5
Season Record 38-24
These picks are all Monday AM picks.
Boise St -35 vs. La Tech - Boise on the blue turf against the 107th scoring offense and 117th scoring defense in the nation. This might be covered by halftime, and my hope is that the La Tech offense is bad enough not to be able to backdoor the cover. It may be hard to get up for this game, but Boise is playing for a BCS bowl and needs big wins to separate themselves from the rest of the mid-majors.
Oregon +5.5 @ California - The #6 scoring offense faces the #8 scoring offense. Both teams allow 20 ppg (#54 and #55 scoring defenses). The are two differences that make me like the underdog in this one. First, the mobility of Dennis Dixon should give Oregon an offensive edge. Second, the Oregon pass defense ranks #11 in the nation to Cal's #93. If you prefer pass efficiency defense for your stat, Oregon is #14 while Cal is #73. Both teams should be able to run it fairly effectively, but the arms of Dixon and Longshore will decide the game, IMO. In this scenario, I love getting the 5.5 points which more than offsets the homefield.
Tennessee -2.5 @ UGA - 80, 108, 114, and 111. Those are the offensive scoring ranks of the D1 teams that Georgia has faced this season. Tennessee has big play ability in Robert Meachem and a very respectable scoring defense (#35) vs. superior competition. My feeling is that this one could be a UT route or a very close ball game. The QB issues that continue to plague Georgia should make the Dawgs one-dimensional against the Vols Defense, so I'm leaning towards a UT victory in double-digits.
Michigan St +17.5 @ Michigan - I'm already wishing I hadn't made this play. I might even play the other side and just lose the vig.
Oklahoma +5 vs. Texas (@ Cotton Bowl) - Statistics are hard to compare here. UT has blown out the weak teams on their schedule and got a lot of help from ISU to make that one worse than it should've been. OU should be undefeated and their defense seems to have come around. I also love the fact that the Sooners dominated Oregon in the second half (until the refs got involved), running at will on a good Ducks defense.
Bama -29 vs. Duke - Alabama has only scored more than 29 points against one opponent. And, Duke's defense isn't all that bad. However, Duke has been shut out in 3 of 4 contests, and Bama is coming back home after two road losses. Look for a Tide rebound to the tune of 37-3.
TCU -2 @ Utah - Utah was supposed to take out Boise last week. Instead, the broncs straight jacked them up at home. TCU lost a tough Friday night game to a BYU team that is two plays from being undefeated themselves. TCU will rebound this week, taking it to the Utes. By the way, Utah's 3 wins have come against powerhouses Utah State, SDSU, and N. Arizona.
Season Record 38-24
These picks are all Monday AM picks.
Boise St -35 vs. La Tech - Boise on the blue turf against the 107th scoring offense and 117th scoring defense in the nation. This might be covered by halftime, and my hope is that the La Tech offense is bad enough not to be able to backdoor the cover. It may be hard to get up for this game, but Boise is playing for a BCS bowl and needs big wins to separate themselves from the rest of the mid-majors.
Oregon +5.5 @ California - The #6 scoring offense faces the #8 scoring offense. Both teams allow 20 ppg (#54 and #55 scoring defenses). The are two differences that make me like the underdog in this one. First, the mobility of Dennis Dixon should give Oregon an offensive edge. Second, the Oregon pass defense ranks #11 in the nation to Cal's #93. If you prefer pass efficiency defense for your stat, Oregon is #14 while Cal is #73. Both teams should be able to run it fairly effectively, but the arms of Dixon and Longshore will decide the game, IMO. In this scenario, I love getting the 5.5 points which more than offsets the homefield.
Tennessee -2.5 @ UGA - 80, 108, 114, and 111. Those are the offensive scoring ranks of the D1 teams that Georgia has faced this season. Tennessee has big play ability in Robert Meachem and a very respectable scoring defense (#35) vs. superior competition. My feeling is that this one could be a UT route or a very close ball game. The QB issues that continue to plague Georgia should make the Dawgs one-dimensional against the Vols Defense, so I'm leaning towards a UT victory in double-digits.
Michigan St +17.5 @ Michigan - I'm already wishing I hadn't made this play. I might even play the other side and just lose the vig.
Oklahoma +5 vs. Texas (@ Cotton Bowl) - Statistics are hard to compare here. UT has blown out the weak teams on their schedule and got a lot of help from ISU to make that one worse than it should've been. OU should be undefeated and their defense seems to have come around. I also love the fact that the Sooners dominated Oregon in the second half (until the refs got involved), running at will on a good Ducks defense.
Bama -29 vs. Duke - Alabama has only scored more than 29 points against one opponent. And, Duke's defense isn't all that bad. However, Duke has been shut out in 3 of 4 contests, and Bama is coming back home after two road losses. Look for a Tide rebound to the tune of 37-3.
TCU -2 @ Utah - Utah was supposed to take out Boise last week. Instead, the broncs straight jacked them up at home. TCU lost a tough Friday night game to a BYU team that is two plays from being undefeated themselves. TCU will rebound this week, taking it to the Utes. By the way, Utah's 3 wins have come against powerhouses Utah State, SDSU, and N. Arizona.