Horfin
10-01-2006, 01:10 AM
Miami @ Houston
Injuries: Mia: G-Berger(Q); LB-Pope(Q); CBs Daniels & Jackson (P)
Injuries: Hou: CB:Faggins (O); C-Flanagan (Q); DE Peek (Q)
When Miami has the Ball
The Injury Berger does not help the fact that Culpepper is in trouble every time he steps back to make a pass. However, the Hou DL has gotten no pressure on any team this year. However, the HOU DL has yet to apply pressure to any QB. However, they have played some good talent. Hou had no pressure on Manning, McNabb or Brunnell. Culpepper has yet to play a game with out a ton of pressure on him. Last week 12 of 26 passing plays were torn up because of sacks or scrambles. If Culpepper has time he should shred the secondary of Houston, but this matchup is one of the worst OL vs. one of the Worst DLs. The Houston D has not really gotten a good pass rush on anyone and they haven’t really stopped the run (See Indy piling up 125 yards rushing). Houston allowed 515 total yards to Indy and 485 to Washington. All 3 QBs have torched HOU for 280+ passing yards. Washington racked up 235 rushing yards on Hou.
Mia Rush O vs. Hou D: Advantage Miami
Mia Pass O vs. Hou D: Advantage Miami
When Houston has the Ball
The first two weeks, Miami couldn’t stop the run. Against Tenny, Mia couldn’t stop the pass. Their secondary was so bad, that when they blitzed K. Collins burned them. If not for Collin’s poor throws, Miami would have lost to one of the worst teams in football. If Carr has protection he has amazing stats, his QB rating has been above 102 in 2 of three weeks this season. Miami’s secondary is HORRENDOUS and with the weapons of Houston they can be destroyed. If Carr doesn’t fumble, he can destroy the defense. The WR of Hou will outplay the DBs, as long as carr has time to get them the ball. Last Week Houston gave up NO SACKS to Washington. That trend should continue as Miami has no pressure to speak of. In the Running Game, Houston hasn’t found a runner, they used Dayne last week who did produce. Against Washington and Indy, Houston averaged above 4 ypc. Miami couldn’t stop Pitts or Buffalo’s Running game.
Hou Rush O vs. Mia D: Advantage Houston
Hou Pass O vs. Mia D: Strong Advantage Houston
Special Teams: Welker is an excellent PR for Miami.
This is a hard game to come to a conclusion as both teams have terrible OL and DL’s that can’t get pressure. They both have QBs that get sacked and Running games that don’t exist. The both have Injuries on the OL. They both have Secondaries that are like swiss cheese.
Carr is a better QB, Houston can block better for the Run, Houston is at home..
Played 1.5 units on Houston +3.5 (-105)
New Orleans @ Carolina
When New Orleans has the Ball:
Brees has been playing well, making good decisions and winning the games. Against GB he made early mistakes and led his team back. Against Atlanta he didn’t have to do much, but what he had to do, he did. Green Bay, oddly, is the only team to stop the rush game of NO. Brees also faced pressure from GB. Carolina’s DL is much better than GB’s and the LB corps is not as good as GBs. Brees will make mistakes (as he did against GB, when after the first three possession he turned the ball over leading to a13-0 lead by GB). The Secondary of Carolina is better than any secondary that NO has faced and they should be able to stop the NO WR. Bush is best used as a Decoy and he has been successful in that role. McAllister should have a below average game. The key to this game is Julius Peppers and the Pass Rush. The ends of Carolina can have a tremendous impact on OLs and they will in this one. Pressue by the DL and Good secondary results in turnovers. In the last two games Carolina has held Min and TB to 4 of 27 on third downs. Carolina has defensive players returning which will help them against this offense.
NO Pass O vs. Carolina D: STRONG ADVANTAGE CAROLINA
NO Rush O vs. Carolina D: Slight Advantage Carolina
When Carolina has the Ball:
Carolina has players returning that when injured had an impact on their first two loses. The OL is still damaged with a Tackle as probable and C as questionable. The NO defensive numbers will appear to be overated as they have played FRYE and VICK. However, FAVRE passed for 340 yards and 3 TDs against this defense and he faced very little pressure. Don’t buy too much into the stats of the NO passing Defense. Carolina with Smith and Johsnon may be unstoppable particularly if NO doesn’t get a pass rush. After the ATL debacle, Carolina average 4.0 ypc against Min and TB. NO dominated the ATL OL, but it couldn’t stop Ahman Green from running.
Car Pass O vs. NO D: Slight Advantage Carolina
Car Rush O vs. NO D: Slight Advantage Carolina
Difficulty in this game is that both teams played Atlanta and NO dominated ATL and Car was Dominated by ATL. NO is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Should prove to be too much. Carolina is coming around and with the return of numerous injured players it should be enough. (And NO coming of a short week and a victory on Monday Night)
Played 1.5 on Carolina -7 (-105)
Minnesota At Buffalo
When Minnesota has the Ball
Johnson has been excellent in the Offense of Minnesota. However, this team could EASILY be 0-3. In the last two games, Chicago and Carolina have had pressure on Johnson. This should continue this week with buffalo’s Des. However, Buffalo’s DL seems to wear down late in the game. Against Minnesota this could be a disaster. The Bills completely outplayed the Jets (5 three and outs). Minnesota hasn’t been able to convert third downs all season and it should not get any easier against Buffalo. After a slow start against Washington, C. Taylor has averaged more than 4.0 ypc against Carolina and Minnesota while only Miami averaged more than 4.0 ypc against Buffalo.
Minnesota Pass O vs. Buff D: Slight Advantage Buff
Minnesota Rush O vs. Buff D: Slight Advantage Minn
When Buffalo has the Ball:
Minnesota’s defense is much better than anyone could have guessed. They maintained pressure on Chicago, Washington and Carolina. They have been in every game this year. Buffalo on the other hand has been limited on Offense (vs. NE and Mia) and when they explode on offense they lose (vs. NYJ). Honestly the Bills’ Offense is anemic. They had five possessions start inside the Jets 30 and only managed 13 points. Buffalo is just as bad as Minnesota on Third Downs. This is the strongest defense (yes, better than NE) that buffalo has had to face. Minnesota will get and maintain pressure all day on Buffalo. Other than one run by D. Williams (CAR) Minnesota has kept all RBs in check.
Buffalo Pass O vs. Minn D: Advantage Minnesota
Buffalo Rush O vs. Minn D: Advantage Minnesota
The Coaching of Buffalo has to be questionable. It could be argued that two attempts to go for it on 4th down has cost them two Wins. Minnesota could gain some good field position on Kick Offs.
Played 1.5 Minnesota PICK’EM (-105)
San Diego @ Baltimore
When San Diego has the Ball:
Look for a game from Rivers more like the game against Oakland. He won’t pass often and Tomlinson and Turner will get a bulk of the attempts on offense. S. Diego has only played the worste two teams in the league so it is really hard to gage them. For example in the Tenn game, SD had 3 possessions start inside of Tenn territory. The Running game of SD won’t be as successful as in the past as Baltimore has allowed 2.0,1.5 and 2.0 ypc in its first three games. However, Frye found a weakness in the Baltimore defense as he managed a 14-3 lead into the fourth quarter. SD does have injuries on the OL at T and G and TE. This could be a bad situation against a great DL/LB/CB group. If River’s has to pass too much this game will be over quickly as his WR are not great, although his RBs and TE are. Baltimore should completely STOP the passing game. With injuries on the OL, Baltimore could halt Tomlinson. But Baltimore has injuries at both DT and DE.
SD Pass O vs. Baltimore D: Advantage Baltimore
SD Rush O vs. Baltimore D: Even (or maybe very slight advantage SD)
When Baltimore has the Ball:
Like S.Diego, Baltimore has yet to play a team that has a win. However, Baltimore had a much harder time of it last week against clevealnd than anyone thought. McNair and the Baltimore O had a terrible first half, wherein Baltimore was 0/6 on third downs. McNair has not been himself in the Baltimore offense (although they are 3-0). He has completed less than 50% of his passes and has only one game with more than 250 yards. Baltimore has a very good running game and the same should continue against an untested DL. The SD DL may be a little small and untested against Baltimore’s running game. Baltimore doesn’t seem like it is built to pass with this OL (Although they have the QB and WRs).
Baltimore Pass O Vs. S. Diego D: EVEN
Baltimore Rush O vs. S. Diego D: Advantage Baltimore
This is a difficult game to cap as it would appear as both teams will focus on the run. Baltimore should get better field position throughout the game as S.D.’s special teams is missing something on coverages. Baltimore’s QB has experience and that should boost the home team to the victory.
Played 1.5 on Baltimore +2
Arizona @ Atlanta
When Arizona has the ball:
With Warner losing confidence and the Coach losing confidence in Warner, any bet on Arizona is a scary bet. Considering further that Atlanta is coming off an embarrassing loss on MNF. The OL of Arizona has not been able to block for Warner and everyone is taking it out on Warner (although he did single handedly lose the STL game). E. James is questioning his coach about the number of touches he gets. The play of the WR is the lone bright spot on this Offense. The DL of Atlanta dominated Carolina’s OL and TB’s OL, the same should continue. The NO game was an abhoration and after Warner makes mistakes, Warner should be benched by the end of this game (deservedly or not). Arizona may find some success running the ball, but it won’t be enough.
Arizona Pass O vs. ATL D: STRONG ADVANTAGE ATLANTA
Arizona Rush O vs. ATL D: Slight Advantage Atlanta
When Atlanta has the Ball:
There are three definite problems with the Arizona Defense: the DL, LB and 2ndary. The secondary of Arizona is the worst, followed by the LBs then the DL. The DL of Arizona has not allowed a 100 yard rusher, but it has allowed RBs to average above 4.0 ypc. Dunn should run and run well and often. Vick should be able to pass decent passes to Crumpler against these TEs. We saw last week that ATL can not come back when they fall behind. That is the ONLY worry in this game. If Arizona can somehow build a lead, then Vick may not be able to pass them back into it. However, the 2ndary of Arizona is not as good as NO and the DL is not as good either. Look for Atlanta to try to explode after the embarrassing MN game.
Atlanta Pass O vs. ARZ D: Slight Advantage Atlanta
Atlanta Rush O vs. ARZ D: STRONG ADVANTAGE ATLANTA
Atlanta should win this game easily, particularly is Lionheart comes in:
Played 1.5 UNITS Atlanta -7 (-115)
Dallas @ Tennessee
When Dallas has the ball:
The Tennessee Defense showed one thing this year: they can pressure culpepper,and that is it. Dallas has had an extra week to prepare for this game and expect Parcells to have Dallas ready. Owens, if he plays, will destroy, Pacman Jones on Coverage….If not look for Glenn to do the same thing. The OL of Dallas is the only part of the game where Tennesee can even think of seeing and advantage and it is not much. If the passing game is on, then expect the running game to pick up and Dallas will look like Indianapolis. There are advantageous Matchups for Dallas at WR-DB and TE-LB. Tenn allowed SD to run all over them and Rivers to pass for 240+ yards.
Dallas Pass O vs. Tenn D: STRONG ADVANTAGE DALLAS
Dallas Rush O vs. Tenn D: Advantage Dallas
When Tennessee has the ball:
There is very little that this Offense will be able to accomplish against Dallas. Tennesse has injuries up and down the offense. 3/5 of the OL are hurt, the TE is hurt, the RB is hurt and they couldn’t beat lowly Miami. If Young spells Collins expect this game to get out of hand fast as a QB that is repeatedly pulled from a game can’t get any rhythm. Short of inexplicable turnovers by Dallas giving Tenn a short field, Tenn shouldn’t be able to move the ball. Tenn only crossed the 50 2 times against SD. As bad as Tenn’s defense is, there Offense is worse.
Tenn Pass O vs. Dallas D: STRONG ADVANTAGE DALLAS
Tenn Rush O vs. Dallas D: STRONG ADVANTAGE DALLS
It is questionable as to whether Tennessee can even put up a field goal against this defense.
Played 1.5 units on Dallas -9.5 (-115)
Indianapolis @ NY Jets:
(Due to the nature of this game, my write up is set up differently)
The Jets can’t run and Indy really can’t stop the run. The only way to win against Indy is to keep manning off of the field. Without a Running game you can’t do this. Look for short possessions for NYJ and Indy with short possessions, the difference is Indy’s will end with points. In reality the Jets almost let Tenn steal a game away, were being blown out by NE before they attempted to play and got completely outplayed by buffalo. The Jets defense has scored points (or led to points) in their comebacks against Buffalo and New England. That doesn’t happen often against Indy and the Jets can’t count on that. With absolutely NO running game, the Jets can not hang with Indy. The Giants stayed with Indy by averaging 6.6 ypc and Jax did it by running the ball as well. With injuries all over both teams, you should see a lot of points and a cover by the Colts.
Played 1.5 units on Indianapolis -8 (-115)
San Fransisco @ Kansas City
When San Fransico ahs the Ball:
NEWSFLASH: SF has an offense. Really. Gore is a good RB, Smith is a Good QB and E. Johnson will sufficiently replace V. Davis. KC couldn’t stop Cincinnati and kept Denver in check. KC has had an extra week to prepare for this game. However, SF is impressive on offense: (The offense hung with Arizona, beat STL and hung(really they did) with Philadelphia). Even with an injured OL, San Fransisco has been putting up points against their three opponents. The OL is a definte weakspot and KC should be able to take advantage of it.
SF Pass O vs. KC Defense: Slight Advantage SF
SF Rush O vs. KC Defense: EVEN
When KC has the ball:
This should be a running game for KC. This is the strength of KC and a potential weakness for SF. SF can stop the pass and get a decent pass rush, however, their running defense can be suspect. Johnson should be rearing to go after the week’s rest and the 0-2 record. As much as the Offense has improved fro SF, the defense has not. SF has allowed a ton of points and a ton of yards, both rushing and passing, however, the secondary of SF can be torched, but it is unlikely the Huard is the guy to do it.
KC Pass O vs. SF Defense: Advantage KC
KC Rush O vs. SF Defense: STRONG ADVANTAGE KC
Played 1.5 on San Fransisco +7 (-105)
Detriot at ST. Louis
When Detriot has the Ball:
Kitna has been piling up yards and losses, however against this Defense, he may find some success. StL can not really stop the run. Denver, SF and Arizona all were able to establish the run against this team. If Detriot can do this it will be the first time for the year that they can lay down the run first and then focus on the passing game. If that happens look for Detriot to put some points on the board against this defense. St Louis does not get a ton of pressure. Without pressure, the WRs should get open. The OL of Detroit is bangedup, but it should nothurt as much against this defense.
Detroit Rush O vs. STL D: Slight Advantage Detroit (*but injury to OL)
Detroit Pass O vs. STL D: Slight Advantage Detroit (*but injury to OL)
When St. Louis has the ball:
Under the new offense, Bulger’s numbers have been off and with the Running game in S. Jackson’s hand the running game has been hit and miss, more miss than hit, the OL of STL has injuries which will cause Detroit to have some success with pass rush. Detroit can stop the run and probably will in this game, but it is a big question with the injury in the secondary as to whether or not they can stop STL passing game.
STL Pass O vs. Det D: Advantage ST Louis
STL Rush O vs. DET D: Slight Advantage Detroit.
MIKE MARTZ RETURNS TO ST LOUIS
PLAYED 1.5 UNITS on DETROIT +6 (-115)
I am out of time so here are the rest of my picks:
Jacksonville -3 (+105) vs. Washington
Oakland +3 (-120) vs. Cleveland
Cincinnati -6 (-105) vs. New England
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All Picks: (1.5 units on)
Indianapolis -8 (-115)
Baltimore +2
Minnesota PICK’EM (-105)
Dallas -9.5 (-115)
San Fransisco +7 (-105)
Carolina -7 (-105)
Atlanta -7 (-115)
Houston +3.5 (-105)
DETROIT +6 (-115)
Cincinnati -6 (-105)
Jacksonville -3 (+105)
Oakland +3 (-120)
I'll update the record in a bit
Injuries: Mia: G-Berger(Q); LB-Pope(Q); CBs Daniels & Jackson (P)
Injuries: Hou: CB:Faggins (O); C-Flanagan (Q); DE Peek (Q)
When Miami has the Ball
The Injury Berger does not help the fact that Culpepper is in trouble every time he steps back to make a pass. However, the Hou DL has gotten no pressure on any team this year. However, the HOU DL has yet to apply pressure to any QB. However, they have played some good talent. Hou had no pressure on Manning, McNabb or Brunnell. Culpepper has yet to play a game with out a ton of pressure on him. Last week 12 of 26 passing plays were torn up because of sacks or scrambles. If Culpepper has time he should shred the secondary of Houston, but this matchup is one of the worst OL vs. one of the Worst DLs. The Houston D has not really gotten a good pass rush on anyone and they haven’t really stopped the run (See Indy piling up 125 yards rushing). Houston allowed 515 total yards to Indy and 485 to Washington. All 3 QBs have torched HOU for 280+ passing yards. Washington racked up 235 rushing yards on Hou.
Mia Rush O vs. Hou D: Advantage Miami
Mia Pass O vs. Hou D: Advantage Miami
When Houston has the Ball
The first two weeks, Miami couldn’t stop the run. Against Tenny, Mia couldn’t stop the pass. Their secondary was so bad, that when they blitzed K. Collins burned them. If not for Collin’s poor throws, Miami would have lost to one of the worst teams in football. If Carr has protection he has amazing stats, his QB rating has been above 102 in 2 of three weeks this season. Miami’s secondary is HORRENDOUS and with the weapons of Houston they can be destroyed. If Carr doesn’t fumble, he can destroy the defense. The WR of Hou will outplay the DBs, as long as carr has time to get them the ball. Last Week Houston gave up NO SACKS to Washington. That trend should continue as Miami has no pressure to speak of. In the Running Game, Houston hasn’t found a runner, they used Dayne last week who did produce. Against Washington and Indy, Houston averaged above 4 ypc. Miami couldn’t stop Pitts or Buffalo’s Running game.
Hou Rush O vs. Mia D: Advantage Houston
Hou Pass O vs. Mia D: Strong Advantage Houston
Special Teams: Welker is an excellent PR for Miami.
This is a hard game to come to a conclusion as both teams have terrible OL and DL’s that can’t get pressure. They both have QBs that get sacked and Running games that don’t exist. The both have Injuries on the OL. They both have Secondaries that are like swiss cheese.
Carr is a better QB, Houston can block better for the Run, Houston is at home..
Played 1.5 units on Houston +3.5 (-105)
New Orleans @ Carolina
When New Orleans has the Ball:
Brees has been playing well, making good decisions and winning the games. Against GB he made early mistakes and led his team back. Against Atlanta he didn’t have to do much, but what he had to do, he did. Green Bay, oddly, is the only team to stop the rush game of NO. Brees also faced pressure from GB. Carolina’s DL is much better than GB’s and the LB corps is not as good as GBs. Brees will make mistakes (as he did against GB, when after the first three possession he turned the ball over leading to a13-0 lead by GB). The Secondary of Carolina is better than any secondary that NO has faced and they should be able to stop the NO WR. Bush is best used as a Decoy and he has been successful in that role. McAllister should have a below average game. The key to this game is Julius Peppers and the Pass Rush. The ends of Carolina can have a tremendous impact on OLs and they will in this one. Pressue by the DL and Good secondary results in turnovers. In the last two games Carolina has held Min and TB to 4 of 27 on third downs. Carolina has defensive players returning which will help them against this offense.
NO Pass O vs. Carolina D: STRONG ADVANTAGE CAROLINA
NO Rush O vs. Carolina D: Slight Advantage Carolina
When Carolina has the Ball:
Carolina has players returning that when injured had an impact on their first two loses. The OL is still damaged with a Tackle as probable and C as questionable. The NO defensive numbers will appear to be overated as they have played FRYE and VICK. However, FAVRE passed for 340 yards and 3 TDs against this defense and he faced very little pressure. Don’t buy too much into the stats of the NO passing Defense. Carolina with Smith and Johsnon may be unstoppable particularly if NO doesn’t get a pass rush. After the ATL debacle, Carolina average 4.0 ypc against Min and TB. NO dominated the ATL OL, but it couldn’t stop Ahman Green from running.
Car Pass O vs. NO D: Slight Advantage Carolina
Car Rush O vs. NO D: Slight Advantage Carolina
Difficulty in this game is that both teams played Atlanta and NO dominated ATL and Car was Dominated by ATL. NO is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Should prove to be too much. Carolina is coming around and with the return of numerous injured players it should be enough. (And NO coming of a short week and a victory on Monday Night)
Played 1.5 on Carolina -7 (-105)
Minnesota At Buffalo
When Minnesota has the Ball
Johnson has been excellent in the Offense of Minnesota. However, this team could EASILY be 0-3. In the last two games, Chicago and Carolina have had pressure on Johnson. This should continue this week with buffalo’s Des. However, Buffalo’s DL seems to wear down late in the game. Against Minnesota this could be a disaster. The Bills completely outplayed the Jets (5 three and outs). Minnesota hasn’t been able to convert third downs all season and it should not get any easier against Buffalo. After a slow start against Washington, C. Taylor has averaged more than 4.0 ypc against Carolina and Minnesota while only Miami averaged more than 4.0 ypc against Buffalo.
Minnesota Pass O vs. Buff D: Slight Advantage Buff
Minnesota Rush O vs. Buff D: Slight Advantage Minn
When Buffalo has the Ball:
Minnesota’s defense is much better than anyone could have guessed. They maintained pressure on Chicago, Washington and Carolina. They have been in every game this year. Buffalo on the other hand has been limited on Offense (vs. NE and Mia) and when they explode on offense they lose (vs. NYJ). Honestly the Bills’ Offense is anemic. They had five possessions start inside the Jets 30 and only managed 13 points. Buffalo is just as bad as Minnesota on Third Downs. This is the strongest defense (yes, better than NE) that buffalo has had to face. Minnesota will get and maintain pressure all day on Buffalo. Other than one run by D. Williams (CAR) Minnesota has kept all RBs in check.
Buffalo Pass O vs. Minn D: Advantage Minnesota
Buffalo Rush O vs. Minn D: Advantage Minnesota
The Coaching of Buffalo has to be questionable. It could be argued that two attempts to go for it on 4th down has cost them two Wins. Minnesota could gain some good field position on Kick Offs.
Played 1.5 Minnesota PICK’EM (-105)
San Diego @ Baltimore
When San Diego has the Ball:
Look for a game from Rivers more like the game against Oakland. He won’t pass often and Tomlinson and Turner will get a bulk of the attempts on offense. S. Diego has only played the worste two teams in the league so it is really hard to gage them. For example in the Tenn game, SD had 3 possessions start inside of Tenn territory. The Running game of SD won’t be as successful as in the past as Baltimore has allowed 2.0,1.5 and 2.0 ypc in its first three games. However, Frye found a weakness in the Baltimore defense as he managed a 14-3 lead into the fourth quarter. SD does have injuries on the OL at T and G and TE. This could be a bad situation against a great DL/LB/CB group. If River’s has to pass too much this game will be over quickly as his WR are not great, although his RBs and TE are. Baltimore should completely STOP the passing game. With injuries on the OL, Baltimore could halt Tomlinson. But Baltimore has injuries at both DT and DE.
SD Pass O vs. Baltimore D: Advantage Baltimore
SD Rush O vs. Baltimore D: Even (or maybe very slight advantage SD)
When Baltimore has the Ball:
Like S.Diego, Baltimore has yet to play a team that has a win. However, Baltimore had a much harder time of it last week against clevealnd than anyone thought. McNair and the Baltimore O had a terrible first half, wherein Baltimore was 0/6 on third downs. McNair has not been himself in the Baltimore offense (although they are 3-0). He has completed less than 50% of his passes and has only one game with more than 250 yards. Baltimore has a very good running game and the same should continue against an untested DL. The SD DL may be a little small and untested against Baltimore’s running game. Baltimore doesn’t seem like it is built to pass with this OL (Although they have the QB and WRs).
Baltimore Pass O Vs. S. Diego D: EVEN
Baltimore Rush O vs. S. Diego D: Advantage Baltimore
This is a difficult game to cap as it would appear as both teams will focus on the run. Baltimore should get better field position throughout the game as S.D.’s special teams is missing something on coverages. Baltimore’s QB has experience and that should boost the home team to the victory.
Played 1.5 on Baltimore +2
Arizona @ Atlanta
When Arizona has the ball:
With Warner losing confidence and the Coach losing confidence in Warner, any bet on Arizona is a scary bet. Considering further that Atlanta is coming off an embarrassing loss on MNF. The OL of Arizona has not been able to block for Warner and everyone is taking it out on Warner (although he did single handedly lose the STL game). E. James is questioning his coach about the number of touches he gets. The play of the WR is the lone bright spot on this Offense. The DL of Atlanta dominated Carolina’s OL and TB’s OL, the same should continue. The NO game was an abhoration and after Warner makes mistakes, Warner should be benched by the end of this game (deservedly or not). Arizona may find some success running the ball, but it won’t be enough.
Arizona Pass O vs. ATL D: STRONG ADVANTAGE ATLANTA
Arizona Rush O vs. ATL D: Slight Advantage Atlanta
When Atlanta has the Ball:
There are three definite problems with the Arizona Defense: the DL, LB and 2ndary. The secondary of Arizona is the worst, followed by the LBs then the DL. The DL of Arizona has not allowed a 100 yard rusher, but it has allowed RBs to average above 4.0 ypc. Dunn should run and run well and often. Vick should be able to pass decent passes to Crumpler against these TEs. We saw last week that ATL can not come back when they fall behind. That is the ONLY worry in this game. If Arizona can somehow build a lead, then Vick may not be able to pass them back into it. However, the 2ndary of Arizona is not as good as NO and the DL is not as good either. Look for Atlanta to try to explode after the embarrassing MN game.
Atlanta Pass O vs. ARZ D: Slight Advantage Atlanta
Atlanta Rush O vs. ARZ D: STRONG ADVANTAGE ATLANTA
Atlanta should win this game easily, particularly is Lionheart comes in:
Played 1.5 UNITS Atlanta -7 (-115)
Dallas @ Tennessee
When Dallas has the ball:
The Tennessee Defense showed one thing this year: they can pressure culpepper,and that is it. Dallas has had an extra week to prepare for this game and expect Parcells to have Dallas ready. Owens, if he plays, will destroy, Pacman Jones on Coverage….If not look for Glenn to do the same thing. The OL of Dallas is the only part of the game where Tennesee can even think of seeing and advantage and it is not much. If the passing game is on, then expect the running game to pick up and Dallas will look like Indianapolis. There are advantageous Matchups for Dallas at WR-DB and TE-LB. Tenn allowed SD to run all over them and Rivers to pass for 240+ yards.
Dallas Pass O vs. Tenn D: STRONG ADVANTAGE DALLAS
Dallas Rush O vs. Tenn D: Advantage Dallas
When Tennessee has the ball:
There is very little that this Offense will be able to accomplish against Dallas. Tennesse has injuries up and down the offense. 3/5 of the OL are hurt, the TE is hurt, the RB is hurt and they couldn’t beat lowly Miami. If Young spells Collins expect this game to get out of hand fast as a QB that is repeatedly pulled from a game can’t get any rhythm. Short of inexplicable turnovers by Dallas giving Tenn a short field, Tenn shouldn’t be able to move the ball. Tenn only crossed the 50 2 times against SD. As bad as Tenn’s defense is, there Offense is worse.
Tenn Pass O vs. Dallas D: STRONG ADVANTAGE DALLAS
Tenn Rush O vs. Dallas D: STRONG ADVANTAGE DALLS
It is questionable as to whether Tennessee can even put up a field goal against this defense.
Played 1.5 units on Dallas -9.5 (-115)
Indianapolis @ NY Jets:
(Due to the nature of this game, my write up is set up differently)
The Jets can’t run and Indy really can’t stop the run. The only way to win against Indy is to keep manning off of the field. Without a Running game you can’t do this. Look for short possessions for NYJ and Indy with short possessions, the difference is Indy’s will end with points. In reality the Jets almost let Tenn steal a game away, were being blown out by NE before they attempted to play and got completely outplayed by buffalo. The Jets defense has scored points (or led to points) in their comebacks against Buffalo and New England. That doesn’t happen often against Indy and the Jets can’t count on that. With absolutely NO running game, the Jets can not hang with Indy. The Giants stayed with Indy by averaging 6.6 ypc and Jax did it by running the ball as well. With injuries all over both teams, you should see a lot of points and a cover by the Colts.
Played 1.5 units on Indianapolis -8 (-115)
San Fransisco @ Kansas City
When San Fransico ahs the Ball:
NEWSFLASH: SF has an offense. Really. Gore is a good RB, Smith is a Good QB and E. Johnson will sufficiently replace V. Davis. KC couldn’t stop Cincinnati and kept Denver in check. KC has had an extra week to prepare for this game. However, SF is impressive on offense: (The offense hung with Arizona, beat STL and hung(really they did) with Philadelphia). Even with an injured OL, San Fransisco has been putting up points against their three opponents. The OL is a definte weakspot and KC should be able to take advantage of it.
SF Pass O vs. KC Defense: Slight Advantage SF
SF Rush O vs. KC Defense: EVEN
When KC has the ball:
This should be a running game for KC. This is the strength of KC and a potential weakness for SF. SF can stop the pass and get a decent pass rush, however, their running defense can be suspect. Johnson should be rearing to go after the week’s rest and the 0-2 record. As much as the Offense has improved fro SF, the defense has not. SF has allowed a ton of points and a ton of yards, both rushing and passing, however, the secondary of SF can be torched, but it is unlikely the Huard is the guy to do it.
KC Pass O vs. SF Defense: Advantage KC
KC Rush O vs. SF Defense: STRONG ADVANTAGE KC
Played 1.5 on San Fransisco +7 (-105)
Detriot at ST. Louis
When Detriot has the Ball:
Kitna has been piling up yards and losses, however against this Defense, he may find some success. StL can not really stop the run. Denver, SF and Arizona all were able to establish the run against this team. If Detriot can do this it will be the first time for the year that they can lay down the run first and then focus on the passing game. If that happens look for Detriot to put some points on the board against this defense. St Louis does not get a ton of pressure. Without pressure, the WRs should get open. The OL of Detroit is bangedup, but it should nothurt as much against this defense.
Detroit Rush O vs. STL D: Slight Advantage Detroit (*but injury to OL)
Detroit Pass O vs. STL D: Slight Advantage Detroit (*but injury to OL)
When St. Louis has the ball:
Under the new offense, Bulger’s numbers have been off and with the Running game in S. Jackson’s hand the running game has been hit and miss, more miss than hit, the OL of STL has injuries which will cause Detroit to have some success with pass rush. Detroit can stop the run and probably will in this game, but it is a big question with the injury in the secondary as to whether or not they can stop STL passing game.
STL Pass O vs. Det D: Advantage ST Louis
STL Rush O vs. DET D: Slight Advantage Detroit.
MIKE MARTZ RETURNS TO ST LOUIS
PLAYED 1.5 UNITS on DETROIT +6 (-115)
I am out of time so here are the rest of my picks:
Jacksonville -3 (+105) vs. Washington
Oakland +3 (-120) vs. Cleveland
Cincinnati -6 (-105) vs. New England
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All Picks: (1.5 units on)
Indianapolis -8 (-115)
Baltimore +2
Minnesota PICK’EM (-105)
Dallas -9.5 (-115)
San Fransisco +7 (-105)
Carolina -7 (-105)
Atlanta -7 (-115)
Houston +3.5 (-105)
DETROIT +6 (-115)
Cincinnati -6 (-105)
Jacksonville -3 (+105)
Oakland +3 (-120)
I'll update the record in a bit