***UDoggies NFL Week 4 w/ Homer Play***

[Underdog88]

Hoping for a profitable week.......


Buffalo-1-110

2 units


Not really a homer play as I did play Jets moneyline last week....What a difference one week makes....After beating Miami, there was some talk about Buffalo's tough defense etc but now everyone is down on the Bills. Minny on the other hand is getting way too much respect IMO. Yes they beat Washington & Carolina, nearly the Bears...but they also have had some offensive troubles. They haven't scored an offensive TD in 2 weeks (they had two against the Skins). While IMO they have a strong o-line, they seem to really struggle inside the red zone...The Bills are a fast defense that IMO should be able to put some pressure on Johnson with a four man rush....Kelsay & schobel on the ends have both been playing solid football. Spikes should also be returning, which provides considerably more depth & aggressiveness @ the LB spot. Clemens & crew in the defensive backfield had a bad game last week IMO, played a bit too far off the receivers, I expect them to be playing a bit tighter this week....Whitner playing good for a rookie for the most part. IMO if they can generate a defensive rush & disrupt the flow of the offense, the Bills could keep them out of the endzone....


The Vikings have allowed under 20 ppg the first 3 games, & allowed 287 yds per game (87 on the ground). Pretty solid #'s, but Willis is avg 103.7 per game & is currently the NFL's leading rusher with 311 yds. For those of you that don't know or haven't watched a Bills game yet -he is a Beast, can put his head down for tough yds & has surprising speed.... just needs to work on his blocking. Mind you this is with a very average o-line- Gandy is a liability @ LT, but I've been happy with Jason Peters' performance on the right side. Pat Williams & LB Leber are both questionable, & if Pat doesn't play IMO that could be huge....Losman, despite the turnovers, showed that he could thro the ball if given time. IMO the fumble wasn't really his fault as key blocks were missed. Last week the offense was finally opened up a bit, but turnover were killer. Lee Evans & Parrish both have big playmaking ability. I expect the Bills to be a bit fired up here, after this home game, they go on the road to face the Bears & Lions.... they are looking for at least 3-3 before heading home to face the Pats....this is a must win for them, & the Vikes had problems on the road last year. They lost the first 4 road games last year.....I'm gonna say 23-13 Bills victory.



Colts -8.5-103

2 units


I made this play Sunday night thinking it would jump a bit, but it has stayed around 9 or so..... After escaping with a 7 point win vs Jax, I expect Manning & company to shell out an offensive barrage. The Jets defense is bad, they allowed JP to throw for over 300 yds & Willis to rush for 150 yds. They got scores from turnovers, something I suspect that will be hard to get from the Colts offense. They have only lost one fumble & 1 int this year. Not really afraid to lay the points as Indy usually will only have trouble scoring against more defensive teams...I have the Colts winning by 14+ here.....could see them scoring 35+ themselves so I'm looking into the over as well

Looking into a couple more sides....likely a moneyline play on Skins, looking into other possible ml plays.....The Bengals inability to stop the run has me looking into the Pats, although they are not the Pats they used to be....GL to all this week...thought welcome , let's get some good discussion going this week

:thumbs:


NFL 37-16 (+$3753)

[DJTranks]

GL U-Dog!!

[birdsfan5]

GL Underdog

[A-Drive]

Gl UnderDog:yeah:

[EdwardHaney]

don't worry bout it bein a homer play, i like BUF too



good luck udog!

[Underdog88]

Thx DJ, Birds, A-Drive & Haney:thumbs:





Skins+140

Skins-3.5+218

1 unit each


This looks to be an interesting matchup....Portis looks to be back to his old self with 2 tds/ 86 yds on 16 carries as well as 78 receiving yds....Betts added 124 on 16 carries. Brunell bounced back for a miserable performance with 24-27 passing for 261 & a TD. I know they were playing the Texans, but IMO it shows how much Portis changes this offense. The Redskins will have to establish the run early vs the tough Jax defense...I expect him to get 24+ carries this week, & it should open up the passing game...Randall El & Moss are game changers.....
IMO Wash will be looking to stuff the run early, jump to an early lead & force Leftwich to play from behind. If you take away the run, Byron could be in trouble. I'm really not that high on Byron on the road to be truthful- Interesting to see how he plays as this is his first time playing in D.C. , where he grew up & played high school. Honestly, I was surprised to see Wash a dog @ home, & I figure that if they win, it will be by 7+. I am taking a chance laying the hook on the alternate pointspread, but in all of Jax losses last year except 1, they lost by more than 7 pts. Also, they allowed 90 or more rushing yds in every loss.....Edge ran for 128, Anderson & Bell combined for 175, Steven Jackson ran for 179, Edge again for 93 & Dillon & Faulk combined for 91. IMO if Portis eclipses 100, Washington wins.

[amikhchi]

GL

[TheBeholdah]

gl udog, got the colts in a ML parlay but may hafta lay some chalk with ya. also i like ur thought process on the bills game, the bills defense could really control that game and there is def value with the bills since a lot of people will read too much into the jets loss. wish i could go on that one, but losman is still the qb....lol get em homy, what u think about that raiders-browns game? i would consider temple-3 playing oakland at this point.

[A-Drive]

..GL my man:yeah:

[Huego]

i really like the skins play, great spot for them. most likely a play for me too. goodluck... :thumbs:

[ILLZ]

I don't usually tail people, I prefer to think for myself, but with that record this season, how can one not?

GL Underdog:thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Hate to be against you UD, but I'm against the Bills and Skins this week. One win over Houston does not a team make....I have Jax winning easy.

GL.....love Indy to cover. :thumbs:

[Daws1089]

2 straight weeks of over 100 yards in penalties for the redskins. that is not going to win any games. and portis didnt even have over 100 yds against the texans so i dont see him getting 100 yd vs. jax. redskins are just plain bad. i have jax winning by 12. GL though

[Underdog88]

Thank guys- bol to you all....


Beholdah- IMO Losman has shown signs of improvement, if they win the turnover battle, they likely grab the W. I lean towards Oakland @ home....Seems as if the public will back Cleveland after giving the Ravens a run for their money, but the line dropped .5 & the moneyline is dropping, kinda strange. Both teams in bottom 3 in offense, but the Browns have allowed 100 yds more total offense per game...& they are now on the road. Clev also is allowing a 48% conversion rate on 3rd down,(3rd worst in the league). IMO Gallery's return could help, Jordan will probably get a ton of touches.....Andrew Walter is the one thing keeping me away from playing this one.....

JML/Daws- I do realize they aren't playing the Texans, & I am not suggesting the Skins will blow them out, Jax is a solid team but IMO not as good as everyone is starting to believe. Portis didn't have 100 yds vs Houston because he only carried 16 times....he did avg over 5 yds per carry. He will get the load of carries this week. Daws, the penalties are a major concern for the Skins, I'm hoping they can pull their heads out of their asses & start playing D without late hits & facemasks lol. Byron is a turnover machine on the road.....last 6 games Leftwich started on the road he is 3-3 su with 9 tds, 6 ints & 3 fumbles lost. 5 of his 9 tds came vs Tennessee & the Jets last year....With the exception of last week he has fumbled in every single road game.

[viccer]

GL Underdog :thumbs:


vicc

[ANGELZ]

gl man

[Underdog88]

Thanks Viccer, Angelz, hope you both do well....


Patriots+5.5

Patriots+215

1 unit each


Oh boy, this one looks like suicide...Patriots looked flat out terrible vs Denver, now in Cincy to play one of the most high powered offenses in the game? Now that everyone's off the NE bandwagon, I'll give em a shot. The Pats haven't lost 2 straight since 2002, & although they are undoubtedly not the same team, I can see them pullig this one out....Cincy comes into the game 3-0, The Bengals are going again without C Braham....I really have nothing bad to say about the Cincy offense...IMO the battle will be won by keeping them off the field....Denver won last week because they were able to stop the run completely. Maroney was held to 18 yds on 12 carries, & Dillon only carried 5 times for 16 yds. Cincy will not duplicate that- they are once again below avgerage at stopping the rush. They are currently allowing 113 ypg on the ground, & last week Willie Parker ran all over them. I expect Maroney & Dillon to get a hefty # of carries, control T.O.P & keep that juggernaut of an offense off the field. Pitt shot themselves in the foot with 3 ints & 2 lost fumbles...you can't expect to beat a top tier team like the Bengals with 5 turnovers. Cincy is once again capitalizing off turnovers....tied for 2nd in the league with a +5 turnover margin, they benifitted off 3 turnovers each in the first 2 games. I have a feeling Brady & co will be protecting the ball today. This game also fits into the trend of fading a dog who won su & is favored the next week....also a good anti-public play (who woulda thought, NE an anti public play:thumbs:

[yomonte]

Ya fkn homer LOL

NE, Sea, Oak and Tenn fit a trend that I just had time to look at. Lines for a fav that move up 1 1/2, 2 or 2 1/2 i e Cincy -4 to -5 1/2 have only covered 1 of 6. Too early for a final line move but something to think about. I will update how these do on Monday.

GL chief

[yomonte]

BTW, your record has me scared on my Minny play. Dammlit

[Underdog88]

9.5 pt teaser.......


Colts+.5
Ravens+11
Panthers+2
Falcons+2
Skins+12
Car/No u51
Sf/Kc u49.5

$100 to win $350

[Underdog88]

Originally posted by yomonte
Ya fkn homer LOL

NE, Sea, Oak and Tenn fit a trend that I just had time to look at. Lines for a fav that move up 1 1/2, 2 or 2 1/2 i e Cincy -4 to -5 1/2 have only covered 1 of 6. Too early for a final line move but something to think about. I will update how these do on Monday.

GL chief


Thanks Yo....interesting trend, I'm probably going to be on the Seahawks tonight...won't touch those other two teams, though I could see them both covering. Then again maybe not lol. 3 totals.....


NE/Cincy u46.5-110

Car/NO u41.5-108

KC/SF u40-102

1 unit each

[Underdog88]

shits & giggles play....



Philly-620
Cowboys-500
Panthers-306
Raiders+103
Seahawks+173

$25 to win $231



Gotta play the home dogged Raiders somewhere....Randy Moss? please stand up:thumbs:

[The War Dogs]

Good luck Dog!

[Chauhan]

BOL UDog

[Underdog88]

Thx WD, Chauhan....last play



Oak/Clev o33.5-110

1 unit

[Underdog88]

Posted Texans 2ndh moneyline, but I guess it didn't go through......


Pats+3.5 2ndh

1 unit

[Underdog88]

Seahawks+182

1 unit


9pt tease.....



Seattle+12.5
Chi/Sea u46
Philly-3.5


$100 to win $94

[EMV01]

Love the ML as well, but just to be safe played the spread and the ML, hopefully another dog cashes on Sunday night..

[Rah-stah Man]

GL homey!
:beer2:

[HOMEDAWG]

GL UD...:thumbs: take dem points...:gulp:

[Underdog88]

Originally posted by HOMEDAWG
GL UD...:thumbs: take dem points...:gulp:


LoL I already have it to close out a parlay (unposted), so I'll root for the Su win:gulp:


Thx Rah :beer2:


9-4 +$1080 with late game pending....

[recovering77]

thanks for the ncaa/nfl ML parlay doggie. I did a small play on that. I was down in the dumps, so I put $57 on a 10 game 10 pt teaser, and I'm 2 games away from hitting.

Just need Philly -2.5 and over 38 to cash $456.

gonna put $50 hedge on GB ML OVER to win 552, so as long as the game goes over, im straighttt.

[Underdog88]

Nice recovering.....but I wouldn't hedge that, Philly gonna win IMO:thumbs:


Chi/Sea u17.5-115

1 unit



unless Hasselbeck throws a pick6, I don't think there will be much more scoring....

[EdwardHaney]

great day today udog!!

[Underdog88]

Thanks Haney:thumbs:


Sea+.5-140 2ndh
u24.5-410 2ndh
Philly-370 1sth

$50 to win $84

[recovering77]

hoping for a hassellbeck TD which forces the bears to keep throwing and putting up points. Going against u at +105, couldn't help myself. Line is telling you that under is the play.

[recovering77]

damn jackson drops a for sure TD, there goes my over.

[recovering77]

wow I'm really impressed with Grossman. This is my first real chance to see him play this season. Talk about threading the needle on that TD, this kid is no joke.

[Underdog88]

Yeah, I was wrong on the late one, Chicago is for real, congrats on all who backed them.....at least the 2ndh under hit. 10-7 +$940. For tomorrow.....I think the Eagles win, I could see it being by 2Tds....not sure if I'll play though


:thumbs:

[Underdog88]

Philly-11-120

1 unit


Philly-11-120
o48.5-110

$100 to win $250



I just gotta lay the points.....don't like going against mr. monday night, but I like Philly by 2+Tds:thumbs:

[NittanyLions94]

I'm leaning towards laying the points too U-Dog


GL :thumbs:

[DJTranks]

GL tonight U-Dogg!!

[Koofter]

ideas 2nd half?

[Underdog88]

Originally posted by Koofter
ideas 2nd half?


Decided to take my lumps on this one.....looking like a loss but didn't want to be middled :thumbs: