The War Dogs
09-27-2006, 08:56 PM
Let’s take an in-depth look at the wagering results and trends resulting from Week 3, with the following caveats in play. The Indianapolis Colts opened up as much as 9-point favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, but by game time Indy had been bet down to as low as 6½ in some places. So we’ll call the Colts’ 21-14 win Sunday a push against the number for this analysis.
Also, because of pushes against the lines or the totals, and statistical ties, some records mentioned below will not add up to the exact number of games played.
And here we go. A review of the Week 3 betting sheets reveals:
Home teams went just 4-10 straight up and 5-8 against the spread during Week 3. This statistic has fluctuated wildly in just the first three weeks of this season. In Week 1, the homers went 5-11 SU and 3-13 ATS. But in Week 2, home teams went 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS. So overall this season, the home squads are now just 21-25 straight up and 19-26 vs. the spread.
Favorites won just eight of the 14 games outright last weekend, and compiled a dismal 3-10 record against the numbers. On the season, the teams the oddsmakers post as chalk are only 27-17 straight up and 18-25 ATS.
Home favorites went just 3-5 straight up during Week 3 and a lousy 1-6 against the spread. On the season, home chalk is 15-13 SU but just 10-17 ATS.
Home underdogs evened out their money record last weekend, going just 1-4 straight up but 4-2 against the spread. So home dogs are now 4-11 outright and 8-8 ATS on the season.
Outright winners covered the spread in nine of 14 games in Week 3 (with the one push). Four teams (Chicago -3½ at Minnesota, Baltimore -7 at Cleveland, Carolina -3 at Tampa Bay and Miami -11 vs. Tennessee) won their games but didn’t cover the numbers. On the season, the teams that have won the games outright are 37-8 against the spread.
The over/unders went 7-6 with a push on the Bears-Vikings game during Week 3. On the season, the O/U is 18-25. Taking a closer look, in the five games with the highest totals during Week 3 (Atlanta/New Orleans and St. Louis/Arizona at 44, and Cincinnati/Pittsburgh, Jacksonville/Indianapolis and New York Giants/Seattle at 43), the O/U went 2-3. So on the season, the few highest O/Us of each of the first three weeks have gone 4-7.
In the three games with the lowest posted totals during Week 3 (Carolina/Tampa Bay and Baltimore/Cleveland at 33, and New York Jets/Buffalo 34), the O/U went 2-1, giving the lower totals of each week a 4-4-1 mark on the season.
And of six games played in domes during Week 3 (Atlanta/New Orleans 44, Chicago/Minnesota 35, St. Louis/Arizona 44, Washington/Houston 38, Jacksonville/Indianapolis 43 and Green Bay/Detroit 39), the O/U went 2-3-1. So on the season, the O/U is 4-8-1 in games played in domes.
Other trendy notes from the Week 3 boxscores include:
Teams that made more first downs than their opponents in their respective games went 7-7 straight up and somehow just 3-10 against the spread. On the season, those teams are now 31-13 SU and 23-20 ATS.
Teams that garnered more total yards than their opponents went 8-6 straight up and just 6-7 vs. the number. On the season, teams that outgain their opponents are now 33-13 SU and 29-16 ATS.
Teams that outrushed their opponents went 8-6 straight up and only 6-7 vs. the spread. So on the season, the better running teams on the day are 32-13 SU and 29-15 ATS.
Teams that gained more passing yardage than their opponents went 8-6 straight up and 5-8 vs. the numbers. On the season, those teams are now 29-16 SU and 28-17 ATS.
Teams that committed more turnovers than their opponents went 2-9 straight up and 3-7 against the spread. For the season, teams that lose the turnover battle are now 6-30 SU and 8-27 ATS.
Teams that committed more penalty yardage than their opponents went 5-9 straight up but 7-6 against the spread. On the season, those teams are now 19-26 SU and, somehow, 23-21 ATS.
Teams that held a time-of-possession advantage went 9-5 straight up and 7-6 against the spread. On the season, those teams are now 37-9 SU and 31-14 ATS.
And all four teams (Washington, Seattle, Baltimore and Miami) that outrushed their opponents and won both the turnovers and time-of-possession battles came out victorious in Week 3, but only two of them covered the spread. So through three weeks of this season, teams that have won those three categories in the boxscores are 18-1 straight up and 16-3 against the spread. The Ravens have done it all three games, while Atlanta and Chicago have each done it twice.
Also, because of pushes against the lines or the totals, and statistical ties, some records mentioned below will not add up to the exact number of games played.
And here we go. A review of the Week 3 betting sheets reveals:
Home teams went just 4-10 straight up and 5-8 against the spread during Week 3. This statistic has fluctuated wildly in just the first three weeks of this season. In Week 1, the homers went 5-11 SU and 3-13 ATS. But in Week 2, home teams went 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS. So overall this season, the home squads are now just 21-25 straight up and 19-26 vs. the spread.
Favorites won just eight of the 14 games outright last weekend, and compiled a dismal 3-10 record against the numbers. On the season, the teams the oddsmakers post as chalk are only 27-17 straight up and 18-25 ATS.
Home favorites went just 3-5 straight up during Week 3 and a lousy 1-6 against the spread. On the season, home chalk is 15-13 SU but just 10-17 ATS.
Home underdogs evened out their money record last weekend, going just 1-4 straight up but 4-2 against the spread. So home dogs are now 4-11 outright and 8-8 ATS on the season.
Outright winners covered the spread in nine of 14 games in Week 3 (with the one push). Four teams (Chicago -3½ at Minnesota, Baltimore -7 at Cleveland, Carolina -3 at Tampa Bay and Miami -11 vs. Tennessee) won their games but didn’t cover the numbers. On the season, the teams that have won the games outright are 37-8 against the spread.
The over/unders went 7-6 with a push on the Bears-Vikings game during Week 3. On the season, the O/U is 18-25. Taking a closer look, in the five games with the highest totals during Week 3 (Atlanta/New Orleans and St. Louis/Arizona at 44, and Cincinnati/Pittsburgh, Jacksonville/Indianapolis and New York Giants/Seattle at 43), the O/U went 2-3. So on the season, the few highest O/Us of each of the first three weeks have gone 4-7.
In the three games with the lowest posted totals during Week 3 (Carolina/Tampa Bay and Baltimore/Cleveland at 33, and New York Jets/Buffalo 34), the O/U went 2-1, giving the lower totals of each week a 4-4-1 mark on the season.
And of six games played in domes during Week 3 (Atlanta/New Orleans 44, Chicago/Minnesota 35, St. Louis/Arizona 44, Washington/Houston 38, Jacksonville/Indianapolis 43 and Green Bay/Detroit 39), the O/U went 2-3-1. So on the season, the O/U is 4-8-1 in games played in domes.
Other trendy notes from the Week 3 boxscores include:
Teams that made more first downs than their opponents in their respective games went 7-7 straight up and somehow just 3-10 against the spread. On the season, those teams are now 31-13 SU and 23-20 ATS.
Teams that garnered more total yards than their opponents went 8-6 straight up and just 6-7 vs. the number. On the season, teams that outgain their opponents are now 33-13 SU and 29-16 ATS.
Teams that outrushed their opponents went 8-6 straight up and only 6-7 vs. the spread. So on the season, the better running teams on the day are 32-13 SU and 29-15 ATS.
Teams that gained more passing yardage than their opponents went 8-6 straight up and 5-8 vs. the numbers. On the season, those teams are now 29-16 SU and 28-17 ATS.
Teams that committed more turnovers than their opponents went 2-9 straight up and 3-7 against the spread. For the season, teams that lose the turnover battle are now 6-30 SU and 8-27 ATS.
Teams that committed more penalty yardage than their opponents went 5-9 straight up but 7-6 against the spread. On the season, those teams are now 19-26 SU and, somehow, 23-21 ATS.
Teams that held a time-of-possession advantage went 9-5 straight up and 7-6 against the spread. On the season, those teams are now 37-9 SU and 31-14 ATS.
And all four teams (Washington, Seattle, Baltimore and Miami) that outrushed their opponents and won both the turnovers and time-of-possession battles came out victorious in Week 3, but only two of them covered the spread. So through three weeks of this season, teams that have won those three categories in the boxscores are 18-1 straight up and 16-3 against the spread. The Ravens have done it all three games, while Atlanta and Chicago have each done it twice.