PDA

View Full Version : Waldo's Week 5


Waldo
09-25-2006, 09:32 AM
Week 4 Record 9-2

YTD Record 36-19



UL Monroe -13.5 vs. FAU -

ULM has put together some decent stretches of football. QB Lancaster threw for more than 300 against Kansas, but was not productive against Bama's secondary. Against FAU, the ULM offense should look 10 times better than they really are. FAU has given up ass to every opponent, while failing to score in double digits even once. Look FAU to finally reach 10, but expect ULM to score in the 30s.

Navy +3 @ UConn -

I think the wrong team is favored. UConn's first game (vs. Rhode Island) inflates their performance rankings. Despite the win vs. Indiana last week, the UConn offense was horrible. Navy drilled Stanford on the road, and then lost to Tulsa in OT. They've held down some decent offenses while proving they can move the ball. Navy wins by single digits.

New Mexico +10.5 @ Airforce

One rule I go by is to not get too excited about Airforce when they play a non-conference opponent tougher than expecter (Tennessee). There aren't many option attacks left in D1, and BCS teams only face them when they play the little guys. UNM, on the other hand, sees this offense every year and have covered 7 of the last 11 in the series. They're 13-3 ATS in their last 16 conference road games. Airforce may win, but this game should go down to the wire. Check the ML when it comes out, and jump on 3-1 or better.

Rutgers -4 @ S Florida

Pow
09-25-2006, 11:16 AM
i REALLY like the Rutgers pick...

taking a look at the rest right now

brvannoy
09-25-2006, 03:16 PM
BOL! I like your picks and will be tailing you this week.

Waldo
09-25-2006, 06:51 PM
Adding

Ga Tech +9 @ Va Tech

JPix
09-25-2006, 08:01 PM
Congrats on that 36-19.....:thumbs:

Waldo
09-26-2006, 10:04 AM
I'm going to compose this as I research it, because I've somehow ignored these two teams thus far.

Both teams had an early date with the University of Florida and got beaten handily. S Miss managed to score, but that was on a 28 yard drive after a 1st quarter interception. They managed to get to the 18 of Florida in the 2nd half but were turned over on downs. UCF had penetration to the Florida 9, but they too were downed out. I don't want to get too caught up in the common opponent, but it shouldn't be ignored that S Miss moved the ball against the gators much moreso than did the Knights. In fact, UCF only managed more than 6 plays and/or 30 yards on 2 of 13 drives against the Gators. S Miss accomplished that on 5 of 11 drives vs. Florida.


Here's the records so far vs. each one's opposition. Note the difference in yardage and first downs gained.

Score (1st Down Margin / Yards Differential)
UCF-

vs Villanova 35-16 (+2 / -18)
@Florida 0-42 (-16 / -484)
vs S Florida 17-24 (Even / -74)

S Miss-

@Florida 7-34 (-4 / -96)
vs SE La 45-0 (+8 / +229)
@NCSt 37-17 (+8 / +168)


UCF QB Steven Moffett is 48/96 for 518 w/ 4TD & 2 INT on the season. However, he was 15/20 for 199 and 3 TDs against Villanova. Over the last two games vs. D1 opponents, he's just 33/76 for 319 w/ 1TD & 2INT/.

S Miss QB is 31/53 for 416 w/ 2TD and 3INT. He adds 18 carries for 98 net yards and a rushing TD.

The difference is on both sides of the ball, where the S Miss offense is more efficient while the S Miss defense has fared much better against comparable opponents.

Let me finish by noting that UCF hasn't been particularly impressive at home so far this season. They've been outgained by both of those opponents, so I'm not giving much advantage for playing at home.

The line moved from 5.5 to 6 while my dumb ass typed this, so I get it at S Miss -6, which I'll take for 2 units. S Miss 37 UCF 23

Waldo
09-26-2006, 10:38 AM
Adding 2 Team Teaser:

S Miss -.5

Over 40.5

Pays Even Money for 2 units

JoshKnows46
09-26-2006, 01:06 PM
Gl Waldo:gulp:

DJTranks
09-26-2006, 03:11 PM
GL!!

NCSUWolfpack2002
09-26-2006, 03:20 PM
GL Waldo! Like the picks:prtytme:

Pow
09-26-2006, 06:50 PM
revenge factor waldo... at home... in the rain...


field goals and fast clock... i see this game being a giant mess...


i see SoMiss winning, but by a field goal in this low scoring affair