My Biggest Play this year

[BSanders20]

I know its foolish to bet "GOY's" and "Bet the house on it", so I want to make it clear that this wager is a wager amount that I can risk. I know have nothing to prove it, but since week 1 when I lost 3 units, I have gone on a huge ride to be up nearly 20 units. But obviously its not in my record since I didnt post and 70% of my wins have come from co-tailing some of the awesome cappers on this site like BirdsFan and JoePa....But last week I bet my biggest play to date on Houston Pk...from the minute I saw the line, I loved it...Houston coming in with arguabley their best QB of the decade in Kevin Colb, a magnificent arm and mobility and starting every game since being the prized recruit his freshman year...Started as a true frosh and hasnt lost the job since...He truley is amazing, in his frosh year he threw for 3000+ yards in a conference that still had a solid bunch of teams that transferred to the Big East a year later...He threw 25 TD's to only 6 INT's that year, and 3000+ yards...the hype surrounding him his soph year truley put a load on his shoulders, and although still throwing for 2700+ yards, he only had 11 TD's and 6 INT's in just as many attempts as his breakout freshman year. Last year he threw a career high 3258 yard and 19 TD's but raised his INT total nearly 3x (more INT's last year than his frosh/soph year combined), as a result of trying to lead the team all on his own and forcing alot of passes, but still nailing 60.5% of his passes...since the day he was signed, I had a gut feeling about this kid. He could have played elsewhere at some top Big12 schools with scholarship offers from TCU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. BOY would have Stoops LOVED to have Kolb right now with the QB dilemma going on their. Imagine a tandem of Peterson and Kolb with that Oklahoma defense. I cant say enough about this kid, and now Houston who many said would go OFF in their Preview of the Houston Cougars for 2006, are giving themselves high fives. With a receiving corps that many said would be the best in the league thanks to the return of Vincent Marshall and the arrival of Arizona transfer Biren Ealy, has proven to many that Houston would be lights out with Kolb under center, and even overachieved at that. Last week when I saw a Big12 suprise team in Okie St coming into Houston, at 3-0 and giving up only 8pts a game (although playing 3 of the worst teams in the nation), I knew the line would be POUNDED. I immediatley put 6 units on Houston (my biggest bet is usually 4 units, having one a week with a number of 2-3 plays with 7-10 plays at most)...Houston matched Okie St punch for punch, and when I realized the game was going to be a shootout, I had no doubt Houston was going to win...Kolb has become a 1st round draft pick- caliber QB this year, and against the Big12's best defense he went 21-28 with 312 yards, 4 TD's (ZERO Int's) and 47 yards on the ground on the way to a 34-24 win with a 217 passer rating. Houston's offense IMO is among the most dangerous in the nation. With a top-notch recieving corps to compliment the most complete QB in the nation IMO, and a defense that has yet to come into gear (allowing 30 pts to Rice, only 7 to Tulane, but then finding its gear after the Tulane blowout and allowing 22 and 24 its last 2 games). Miami is off the Top 25 for the first time in nearly half a decade, and the program is asking for Cokers head. Many see this game as a momentum changer for the U, where they can manhandle a "inferior conference" team and build some momentum for Kyle Wright. That is absolute garbage. Houston will be the suprise team of the year, and I completley stick to my assesment after I saw them battle it out with Okie St and win by DD's. Kolb himself threw for more TD's than OSU had given up all year. This team has a great chance to go 12-0 if they get past their biggest test, Miami, and to give them more than 2 TD's is COMPLETLEY obvious of the fact that the books are siding with the notion that C-USA team is playing a National Powerhouse of years past at home. I went ahead and put Houston +15 in as my biggest play this year, 8 units, and will be placing a unit on the ML. Offensively, Houston destroys Miami in any aspect. Kolb would be starting at ANY ACC school right now, and if this were last year I wouldnt be playing this for nearly as much, but with Miami having its worst defense in years (compared to a couple years ago where they had lineups where 50% of the team is now starting in the Big Leagues), but Miami is coming into this game banged up and empy in the gas tank. They are 1 and 2, and minus the beating of a Div IAA caliber Florida A&M team, they ahve scored a total of 17 points vs teams like Louisville and FSU...Houston will put up at least 28 in this one, and nothing tells me that Wright will do anyting to improve his 1 TD total for the year. Of course he will get his couple TD's against a less talented Houston secondary, but this game will be decided by offense and Houston's offense is UNDOUBTEDLY better than the 2nd team offense that put up 31 on Miami last week. Even if Louisville's backup QB and RB's didnt get in gear, their defense would have won the game, allowing one early TD to Miami, and responding with 31 unanswered points while missing their 2 biggest stars overrall. The line scares me, I thought it would be 10 at most. Vegas sees this game as a turnaround game for Miami, a game where they can get back to .500 before conference play and know the public thinks their is NO WAY Miami goes 1-3, especially when playing a Conf USA team. But this Houston team is one that is barely starting to get recognized. Kolb could be starting in 80% of the teams in the Top 25 right now. He has BLOWN up this year, his final year, throwing 12 TD's through 4 games with only ONE INT. He is on pace for 36 TD's and 1 INT, and yes I know those #'s where against defenses that arent nearly as good as the U, but where will Miami find the way to put up points to match Kolb. I wish I could make a bet that Kolb will end up in NY for the Heisman voting, although it will be a miracle for him to win it coming from the C-USA and playing a fairly easy schedule. I know it is very possible for Miami to BLOW UP this game and take out their frustrations on the Cougars, but I will side with what i see as one of the hottest/most confident squads in the nation, and this game to me is VERY VERY similar to the Akron/NC State game...the smaller programs have started to make a name for themselves, and Akron's defeat on the road vs NC State was the biggest in school and conference history. Lighting will strike twice, and based on #'s it is easy to see that NC State is almost identical to Miami and on the other hand, Houston would destroy Akron 99 times out of 100. Kolb was able to light up Big 12 athletes last week vs Okie St, and the confidence that gave them will follow them this week in the MIA. If they can beat the Big 12's best defense (stastically), their is nothing in their head that makes them feel like they cant beat one of the biggest busts of the year in MIA. SO much hype came around Kyle Wright and that he would be the next big thing in Miami history, and even with a 51 pt blow out of Rice, Wright still has ONE touchdown. Kolb is already being slated as a Heisman candidate, and this game hear wiill not only solidify his chances to be a Heisman contender, it will put Kolb on the top 3 list of QB's for the upcoming NFL draft. Houston will shock the world, and beat a flat Miami team 31-20....ANY OPINIONS AT ALL WOULD BE APPRECIATED

1.) Houston Cougars +16 (-120/BetDsi) --- 9.6 Units to win 8

and the moneyline for a unit when it comes out

GL boys

[JT]

As bad of a year that Miami is having, I dont expect this game to be close. Miami still has talent and D. Be careful.

They are still Houston playing MIAMI.

[BSanders20]

exactly...everyone sees "Miami", one of the most dominant teams of the decade..and they see them having a bad year, in desperate need of a win, and what better way then to beat up a inferior C-USA team...but this isnt your normal C-USA team, this is one of the most explosive offenses in the nation led by a QB that would start at "Miami" if he was playing their...Kolb leads them to a cover, and maybe even a W..ill take my chances with a team that knows it has a GREAT chance to go undefeated this year if they get passed their most difficult test of the year on paper, and this Miami team could lose to Wake Forest right now

[FlyersFan]

Originally posted by BSanders20
ANY OPINIONS AT ALL WOULD BE APPRECIATED

1.) Houston Cougars +16 (-120/BetDsi) --- 9.6 Units to win 8



what does anyone's opinion matter at this point...lol?....i am assuming you have already played it or you wouldn't have posted it as a play. If you feel that strong about it, then stick with it. You had a nice write up there. Just make sure that you liked the play before you made the write up.....:thumbs: . And remember, this is the same HOU team that barely hung on to beat Rice. And OKST hasn't played anyone this year, so their defensive numbers were skewed. To me, this is HOU first legitimate test this year and we will find out about them on Saturday. I really think that MIA is the side. Don't kid yourself, this may not be a NC Miami team but there is still a huge talent differential here and this is a HUGE step up in class for HOU. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 45-14 type game, especially with MIA off a bye. MIA defense has a ton of speed still. Hope it hits, but it would be MIA or nothing for me. HOU record is over inflated and so are their numbers with games vs. OKST and RICE. GL! hope you cash it.....:thumbs:

[mtnsage]

read this just this morning...Warning - G.o.y - Warning Posted Yesterday at 07:00 PM


Saturady September 30th

Miami Hurricanes -15.5 Against Houston In The Orange Bowl. Expet To See A Miami Team That Hasnt Showed Up Yet. This Game Will Get Ugly Quick, And Miami Will Keep The Pounding Up All Game Long.

I Seriously See Something Like 60-6

Believe Me, I Hate Miami, But This Game Is As Easy As It Gets

hope it helps....

[Waldo]

My main thought on the Houston play is that one would probably benefit from waiting and letting the line increase. I have a feeling that you could get 17.5 without a tease if you wait until Friday.

I'm considering this one a no-play.

[vazman05]

gl on houston!!!...have to respect this play as you have obv done your homework and provided us with more then enough info in your write up...gl on houston and gl on any other plays you may place this week:yeah: :gulp:

[FlyersFan]

Just reread your writeup....and...i really appreciat the effort you put into it, but i really think you are reaching for stuff to support your case....

1) as i said, OKST hadn't played anyone so who cares how many yards or points they had given up

2) you are seriously underestimating the speed and talent differential between these 2 schools

3) isn't this the same HOU team that almost lost to an atrocious RICE team a couple weeks ago. Rice is implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball this year and that was their first game of the year. They should have destroyed RICE in that game

4) Who has HOU played so far? RICE who is atrocious, OKST who is still way down and hadn't played anyone, Grambling State and Tulane?...are you kidding me? and 3 of the four were at home!.....and now all of a sudden, they are supposed to go down to MIA who has been off for 2 weeks and coming off a very poor performance and play right with them

As is said, MIA isn't the same MIA this year, but if you don't think there is still a huge talent differential here then you have missed something. Totally different ballgame going down to MIA and hanging tough, and beating Grambling state and OKST. You just can't use what HOU has done so far because it has no context in relation to what they are going to face. Now if you had told me they had gone to Oregon and lost by 7 or something, that is a different ballgame. You might be right, and i hope you are becuase i won't be involved here. But this is a major jump in class from anything HOU has seen and i can guarantee you that this will be the fastest defense Kolb has seen in a long time.....

GL with your play again...:thumbs:....you do have the trends in your favor and MIA hasn't been good as a DD home favorite.

[VolinArizona]

Not that I want to change your mind, but I don't think this is anywhere near a lock. You say it's the best play you've ever seen, but I see at least 10 games with more value THIS WEEK.

Sure, Houston could lose by 3 or win, but I think 16.5 is about right, and I won't be playing the game at that number. If it jumps up to 17.5 or 18, I might look harder. Remember, Houston beat Rice by 1, scored 34 on an Oklahoma State D that hadn't faced an offense yet, and allowed 22 to Grambling State. I am almost certain Miami will put up 21-24 if not more. Can Houston score on Miami's D? Houston isn't in the same stratosphere (yet) with Louisville's offense.

Like I said, you could come out of this a rich man and looking very smart. I will give you props RIGHT NOW for doing your research and being confident in your ability. In fact, I will now root for Houston. Go Cougs!

However, I see value in a lot of other places, and personally, I won't take this play at 16'.

BOL though! :)

[williwonka05]

Hope the Cougs come in for ya ... They should be pumped to play in Miami after their big win over OKIE ST ..


:thumbs:

[BoilerBacker]

I actually like the play on first glance. Louisville torched Miami for 14.7 yds per pass PLAY. That is mind boggling. Houston is not Louisville, but Miami is not Miami and there is lots of grumbling down there. The only thing I don't like about this game is the fact that Houston is undefeated. It puts a target on them....but they are not ranked...which is good.

Houston can definitely pass well. I live down here and Kolb has a cannon for an arm. Houston did not play well vs. Rice but did come back in a big rivalry game. Houston and Rice are a few miles apart. I know Rice blows.....

The line will most likely go up, so I would wait. I think Houston can hang within 2 TDs especially with the pass and backdoor opportunity.

You cannot take too much from week 1 especially in a rivalry game. Oklahoma was lucky to survive UAB in week 1 and UAB just lost at home to pitiful Miss State.

[MParris86]

It seems as if the perennial "big boys" of college football have followed up losses this year with massive wins against inferior opponents.

Texas lost to OSU, then won 52-7 vs. Rice
Oklahoma lost to Oregon, then won 59-0 vs MTSU
LSU lost to Auburn, then won 49-7 vs. Tulane
Tennessee lost to Florida, then won 33-7 vs. Marshall
Florida State lost to Clemson, then won 55-7 vs. Rice
Nebraska lost to USC, then won 56-0 vs. Troy

Now I don't know if Miami is going to follow the trend, but it seems to me that when a respected program gets knocked down, they usually come back with a vengeance the following week.

[EdwardHaney]

Houston may just be the correct side, but I don't know that I would necessarily pound this one.


Good luck though BarrySand!! :thumbs:

[BSanders20]

Originally posted by FlyersFan
Just reread your writeup....and...i really appreciat the effort you put into it, but i really think you are reaching for stuff to support your case....

1) as i said, OKST hadn't played anyone so who cares how many yards or points they had given up

2) you are seriously underestimating the speed and talent differential between these 2 schools

3) isn't this the same HOU team that almost lost to an atrocious RICE team a couple weeks ago. Rice is implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball this year and that was their first game of the year. They should have destroyed RICE in that game

4) Who has HOU played so far? RICE who is atrocious, OKST who is still way down and hadn't played anyone, Grambling State and Tulane?...are you kidding me? and 3 of the four were at home!.....and now all of a sudden, they are supposed to go down to MIA who has been off for 2 weeks and coming off a very poor performance and play right with them

As is said, MIA isn't the same MIA this year, but if you don't think there is still a huge talent differential here then you have missed something. Totally different ballgame going down to MIA and hanging tough, and beating Grambling state and OKST. You just can't use what HOU has done so far because it has no context in relation to what they are going to face. Now if you had told me they had gone to Oregon and lost by 7 or something, that is a different ballgame. You might be right, and i hope you are becuase i won't be involved here. But this is a major jump in class from anything HOU has seen and i can guarantee you that this will be the fastest defense Kolb has seen in a long time.....

GL with your play again...:thumbs:....you do have the trends in your favor and MIA hasn't been good as a DD home favorite.

I agree that Houston almost lost to Rice, and they should have dominated that game...but hwo many times have we had games that one side was supposed to DOMINATE the other and it came down to a final score where the better team won..it shappens every week...of course I noticed the Rice game on Houstons schedule, and the fact taht they have played crap programs and/or programs whose records were not a good indication of their strength (like OSU)...but all in all, OSU's has some BIG TIME Big12 recruits and their not just another team like Rice or Tulane who has nobodys...Oklahoma State gets top notch recruits (including the best player ever to play the game, Barry Sanders :cool: )...and I support MParris trend of the dominant programs coming out FIRIING after a bad loss...But look at the teams they played, Cincy, Rice 2x, Tulane to name a few...of course many people expect Miami to come out and POUNCE Houston before conference play, because of the "talent difference"...but Miami's talent is arguabley its poorest in years (at least performance wise), and Houston is playing its best football in a LONG time, with a quarterback who Bob Stoops would have leading his Sooners if not for Kolb choosing to stay close to home...the trend of taking a "great program" after a bad week against a week conference foe is a fairly obvious one, its in headlines all the time as the topic "so and so ready to pounce lowly School to make up for their loss to rival etc etc)....I dont care if Miami had a week off, that almost makes it even worst, an extra week for a team to realize that after being considered a Top 10 squad, they arent even on the map anymore, and Coker seems to have given up on this year and really just "rebuild", but he wont be given that chance at the U, with all that talent, no team should need to rebuild, they should be re-loading to fire for another NC...but Miami has no starts on offense...Moss is good, all ACC, but this is the worst year ive seen for quality of RB's in the ACC in a long time...and Wright has 1 td, sure he will triple that against Houston, but how will Miami stop a Houston offense that is play with the confidence of the world on their shoulders...I truley feely Houston upsents Miami for the biggest upset of the year, and goes on to a 12-0 season and dont even get a BCS birth due to sched...watch

[knicks25111]

i THINK YOU MAKE ALOT OF GOOD PTS. i AM FROM mIAMI AND FOLLOW ALL THE FLA TEAMS I PICKED LOUISVILLE TO BEAT MIAMI AND THEY DID. BUT REMEMBER 1 THING MIAMI IS SO FAST ON DEFENSE ITS SCARY. THEIR DEF DOES ALOT OF SCORING FOR THEM. CONSTANTLY PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE QB. I REALLY DON'T KNOW HOW GOOD HOUSTONS OFF LINE IS BUT IF THEY ARE GOING TO WIN, THEY BETTER PLAY THE GAME OF THEIR LIVES. GL

[Pow]

what? i cant hear you

[williwonka05]

I'm gonna play it too ..LET'S GET IT

[joepa66]

Barry......sorry I didn't get to ya sooner....but, here are my thoughts. I think there are far stronger plays on the board. It's a question of IF and HOW Miami is going to respond to all the crap going on down there. My sister lives in Miami and sends me all the clippings and they are after Larry Coker's head, the AD has given him a vote of confidence, albeit a very "soft" vote. There is alot of finger pointing and who knows how the "kids" will react.....and they are in fact still kids! They can either fall apart or pull it all together.....who knows! I think Miami has prepped better for the season with their strength of schedule, but Kolb and Company may be due! But this truley is a step up in scheduling for the Coogs and UH has been trying to find their way for nearly a decade. A win here could really push their program over the top. I really see no value in this game for me because I haven't been able to get a read on either team. It'd be a no play for me as there is too much risk involved, too many holes in either side of the argument FOR or AGAINST! I hope ya get the cash bro cause I love #20! GL Barry....

:yeah: :thumbs:

[CuseFan10]

Originally posted by BSanders20
I truley feely Houston upsents Miami for the biggest upset of the year, and goes on to a 12-0 season and dont even get a BCS birth due to sched...watch

Say what? How's that Kevin Kolb Kool-Aid? Undefeated?

First off, BOL with your play, and I don't at all think it's outrageous to think the Cougs will cover the ever-rising spread versus Miami. Solid 10 unit play... God no. But it's certainly possible.

BUT come on, to say that a team which beat Rice by 1 point and beat Okie State basically because of an overturned call before halftime (which led to an official being suspended and the Houston victory) is pretty ridiculous.

They have road games at Miami, Southern Miss, and two others plus still need to play all the "upper-echelon" C-USA teams such as Southern Miss, UCF, UTEP, and Tulsa.

[Horfin]

Originally posted by FlyersFan
Just make sure that you liked the play before you made the write up.....:thumbs: .

FF,

What an interesting statement. Please explain (I'm not being a dick). When I cap, I try to take myself completely out of it and look at the facts and not try to think about the names of teams or the names of the players or their history, just this season. (For Example: Favre in the NFL, what he did the last 10 year's don't matter, it matter what he does this year with his team). I'm really interested in why you say this.

Thanks
Horfy

[JoshKnows46]

BOL Bsanders....I hope it cashes for U:gulp:

[lucky strike$]

miami had the 4th ranked defense in the nation last year and returns 7 starters,BUT there are holes at the corners to fill,if kolb has some time,look out,i think last years peach bowl where lsu beat the shit out of miami still lingers,like one ot those silent but deadly BEER FARTS,houston possibly has the best receiving corps in the league,the running game avg. 166yds per and was 39th in the country,the rush dee. ranked a lowly 87th allowed 177yds per game,BUT has hope with 10 returning starters,also i read non conference T-E-S-T-S include oak st. AND MIAMI,WELL THEY PAST THE FIRST TEST..i do c at least a cover here and a lot closer game than the experts expected..C-O-U-G-E-R-S!!!!
:yeah:

[K-9 Buckeye]

Wow. When I saw the spread I immediately liked Miami. I guess what did it for me was seeing FSU obliterate Rice 55-7 and recalling Houston's 1 pt. win over Rice.

I put 4 units on Miami -15.5 after taking a closer look at Houston. Houston has beaten arguably 4 of the worst teams in 1-A football. And they are going on the road for the first time this to year to face a hungry and pissed off Miami team that will want to make a statement on ESPN2 come Saturday at 6 PM. Larry Coker is fighting for his job and they've had a week off to wallow in their blow-out loss from a week before at Louisville.

As FlyersFan pointed out, Houston will see speed and physicality unlike any they've seen before. Miami has issues, but they are loaded with talent. I see Miami's D scoring outright and setting up scores. I think it's going to get ugly and I see a score of like 40-10, or worse.

We'll see. Good luck brother! :thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally posted by Horfin
FF,

What an interesting statement. Please explain (I'm not being a dick). When I cap, I try to take myself completely out of it and look at the facts and not try to think about the names of teams or the names of the players or their history, just this season. (For Example: Favre in the NFL, what he did the last 10 year's don't matter, it matter what he does this year with his team). I'm really interested in why you say this.

Thanks
Horfy

I understood it as that he was saying make sure you like the play, not make a "homer play" of sorts with your heart, and then when doing a write up, come up with anything you can to try and convince yourself that's it the right side thru the write up, after already making the play.

Could be way off though.

[BSanders20]

alotta good points boys...after reading your posts I went ahead and bought back 2 units on Miami -16...so now its 7.6 to win 5.8

[DJTranks]

Please use paragraphs lol- one long run on sentance!

GL w/ your play!

[K-9 Buckeye]

Congrats on your winning bet! :yeah: :thumbs:

I was dead wrong about that game. :puke:

I didn't fully realize how HORRIBLE the Canes have become. They are PATHETIC.

Anyway, good luck today and next weekend and I may have to fade you next time! :bow:

[FlyersFan]

nice job....:thumbs:

horfin- my point was just that sometimes you can look at a number and try and dig up stuff to support what you first thought. I have done that and try not and do it. You can always find stuff to support a certain side, no matter what. The key is to make sure, IMO, that it isn't smoke and mirrors stuff. Not saying it was, just was making the point that you can land on the wrong side of a game that was the wrong side all along, but you found ways to justify the play. That's all.

[CuseFan10]

Awesome job, never even had to sweat it!

:yeah:

[DJTranks]

Nice job!

[SDSurfn]

Congrats BSanders!

I guess I was too stubborn to believe Miami had fallen so far. But they have. They're terrible. Nothing against Houston, but the Miami of old would have won this game in Miami by a score of something like 45-7.


Well done.

[williwonka05]

man .. good job ...wish they would of won though


:win:

[I Bleed Black&Gold]

you really showed some brass with that post
your pick of the year etc...
you had me convinced just wish you wouldnt of pulled back
2 units listening to other posters a winners a winner Great Hit
I wish they would of won 2

[mad doggie]

nice hit....:thumbs:

~md

[BSanders20]

Originally posted by I Bleed Black&Gold
you really showed some brass with that post
your pick of the year etc...
you had me convinced just wish you wouldnt of pulled back
2 units listening to other posters a winners a winner Great Hit
I wish they would of won 2

B&G I feel you bro. But the point of these forums to me is to get hte opinions of those you respect and a majority as a whole, and they had alot of good points. The one post about big programs coming off bad losses and blowing out teams by an average of 40+ saved me...

Also like I said this wasnt the "Miami of Old"...but it was the HOUSTON of new like I said...still hit my game of the year, and damn pleased with everything I capped coming into play. Knew the line reflected Miamis program, not their playing.

To all of you who congratulated me, thank you very much. Got some big plays this week, but all cotails of guys like CoachLT and JoePa...Good luck to all of you