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Zgoody
09-15-2006, 09:54 AM
NCAA YTD: 17-15 (-.5 units)

Nice hit last nite with the Mountaineers rolling again...was sweating the back door cover after the the tipped TD catch late in the 4th but snuck away with a nice win to start off the week.

Let's keep it going tonight! Need a big week to get back on the plus side after last week! (OUCH!)

Liking the home favorite again tonight...

Kansas @ Toledo (-3 1/2)

1. KANS gave up 377 passing yards at home last week vs. Louisiana-Monroe in winning by 2 points, 21-19 as a 24.5 point favorite. TOL has averaged 292.2 passing yds./game in their first 2 games, both on the road where they nearly upset IOWA ST in 3OT as 8.5 pt. underdogs. TOL suffered a big letdown last week on the road at W.MICH, losing 31-10 as 10 pt. favs, but were (-4) in turnover differential which was a major reason why…

2. TOL is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games

3. KANS are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 road games

4. MAC teams like TOL play week night games almost as often as they do on Saturday – five of the Rockets` 12 games this year are on school nights – while Big 12 squads such as KANS are accustomed to suiting up only on Saturday. The short week should definitely favor the home team...

5. TOL is 34-2 SU and 22-10 ATS playing at their home stadium, the Glass Bowl since 1999, while KANS is 3-17 SU (9-11 ATS) on the road since Mark Mangino took over the team.

This number has been dropping all week, but I don't see it going lower...think I will buy the hook here, just in case!


Toledo -3 (-120) 1 Unit WIN

Home Favs under the weeknight lights have been good to me over the last couple years...let's hope that trend continues!

Zgoody
09-15-2006, 10:13 AM
Already on these 2...

Wake Forest @ UCONN (-6)

1. CONN are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall
2. WF are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall
3. WF has beaten woeful Syracuse & Duke by a combined 13 pts in their first 2 contests, averaging a meager 17 pts/game. Duke also torched WF for 305 yds passing while UCONN averaged 18.6 passing yds/completion on their way to 567 total yds on offense.
4. UCONN has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game…extra rest & extra prep time.
5. Freshman QB for WF struggled to put up pts @ home vs. below average Duke defense. This UCONN defense held high powered Louisville offense to 30 pts in final game last year in a 10 pt loss (& cover as 14.5 pt dog)

UCONN (-6) -110 2 Units

Arizona ST (-10 ½) @ Colorado

1. AZ ST are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
2. COL lost to I-AA Montana ST in week one 19-10. Montana ST then lost to D-II Chadron State last week…UGLY!
3. COL is averaging 181 yards of total offense (3rd worst in the country) and have scored a total of 36 points in their last 5 games dating back to last year (7.2/game).
4. COL opponents have completed over 75% of their passes and they now face an offensive juggernaut that can put up points in a hurry. AZ ST thumped NEV last week 52-21 as AZ ST QB Rudy Carpenter threw for 333 yards and 5 TD’s.
5. AZ ST defense has given up nearly 75% of its total yardage allowed this year through the air, but have recorded 4 interceptions, the same number of TD passes allowed. Another capper on this site pointed out that it seems that the Sun Devils toughest opponent would be one with a veteran quarterback who can pick apart a defense without making mistakes. That’s not the case with Colorado...they don't have a signal caller who can effectively throw the ball. Cox is a poor pocket passer and Jackson is a run-first guy. Not the tandem who would seem to haunt AZ ST’s secondary. Plus these 2 are in the midst of a QB controversy as well.
6. AZ ST defense, which finished 114th out of 117 Division I-A teams last year, forced four turnovers and scored a touchdown for the 2nd consecutive week against Nevada as well. Looks like a much improved squad to me...

Arizona ST (-10 1/2) -110 2 Units

Zgoody
09-15-2006, 10:25 AM
OK...adding these 3

Oklahoma ST (-30) -110 1 Unit
Nebraska (+17 1/2) -110 1 Unit
Wisconsin (-13 1/2) -110 1 Unit

Zgoody
09-16-2006, 11:39 AM
I know better, but just for the action...

6 Team Parlay: All ML picks...1 Unit to win 38 Units
UCONN (-300)
ND (-250)
OK (+170)
LSU (+150)
AZ ST (-500)
CLEM (+160)