View Full Version : On The September 1AA-II-III Gridiron
Most of you should know the deal by now. I tend to concentrate on 1AA-II, & III foots over 1A. However this year I am going to make an effort to play more 1A as I love to pick my spots. If I have time writeups will come along with some of my top games during the season.
Stephen F. Austin +25.5 -115 over Tulsa
Wagner -8.5 -115 over LaSalle
Hofstra -25.5 +100 over Stony Brook
Morehead St +22.5 -115 over Western Illinois
Rhode Island +27 -115 over Connecticut
Alcorn St +20 -115 over UL Monroe
Northern Iowa -20.5 -115 over Drake
Tennessee Chattanooga -1.5 -115 over Tennessee Tech
Boise St -39.5 -115 over Sacramento St
Northern Arizona +35 -115 over Arizona St
Eastern Washington +22.5 -115 over Oregon St
08/31/06 Recap:
06-05-00 55% +40 (Based on to win $100 per wager for record purposes only)
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Season:
06-05-00 55% +40 (Based on to win $100 per wager for record purposes only)
Hampton -1 -115 over Grambling
Montana +27 -115 over Iowa
Gardner-Webb -10 -115 over Jacksonville
Indiana State +46 -115 over Purdue
Holy Cross -1.5 -115 over Georgetown
Colgate +12 -115 over Massachusetts
Robert Morris +23 -115 over Dayton
Florida A&M +2.5 -115 over Delaware St.
Albany +25 -115 over Lehigh
St. Peter's +10 -115 over St. Francis PA
Davidson +18.5 over VMI
Furman -14 -115 over Jacksonville St.
Sacred Heart +22.5 -115 over Lafayette
Northern Colorado +10 -115 over UC Davis
Weber St +25.5 -115 over Colorado St
William & Mary +23.5 -115 over Maryland
Richmond +6.5 -115 over Duke
Appalachian St +18.5 over North Carolina St
Villanova +18 -115 over Central Florida
Monmouth +7 -115 over Fordham
McNeese St +21.5 -115 over South Florida
Murray St +41.5 -115 over Missouri
Tennessee Martin +28 -115 over Ohio
Oklahoma St -29.5 -115 over Missouri St.
The Citadel +35.5 -115 over Texas A&M
Eastern Illinois +20.5 -115 over Illinois
Northwestern St +25 -115 over Kansas
Coastal Carolina -9.5 -115 over Elon
Illinois St +20 -115 over Kansas St
Eastern Kentucky +17.5 -115 over Cincinnati
Portland St +18.5 -115 over New Mexico
Virginia Tech -39.5 -115 over Northeastern
I have a few extra minutes before I catch a nap. I should have been sleeping already as it is almost 5:20AM here in NY. Anyhow I'll briefly make a statement or two about a couple of these games. =
Montana: This team has no problem facing any 1A team & quite frankly I think they could compete with any in the land. Last season was awful by their standards & they will make up for it. Iowa imo is highly overrated & think they might just overlook the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies aren't just going to showup for a payoff & laydown. They'll go toe to toe with the Hawkeyes & have a realistic shot at an outright win. At worst they lose by 14-17. This should be a wire to wire cover.
Gardner-Webb: This is a plain mismatch as the talent level between these two teams is quite obvious. GW should be able to almost double the spread here.
Indiana St: They are not a good team which is why they have lost 17 games in a row. Their last win came in the Gateway Conference opener in 2004 in double OT over Illinois St. Why would I back them? I'll tell you why, for as bad as this team is record wise over the last almost 2 years, they actually showed improvement. I noticed the team playing hard for their coach even when things were bad. I recall how I had a Gateway Conf GOTY on S. Ill last year over this squad. I won but let me tell you it wasn't a cakewalk as I thought it would be.
The big reason why they seemed to show some life is because of their ability to put up points. The weakness with this team is their defense. I know this doesn't bear well when stepping up against a 1A team. However Purdue's D is nothing to get too worried about. I know Tiller doesn't care for games against 1AA teams so it is just a game to get through & move on. He doesn't think much can be determined from a game like this. With this kind of attitude & the fact their D has alot of question marks, do you really trust them to win by 7 TD's? I don't think it is happening. Indiana St should only have to score 10-14 points to cover here.
Holy Cross: This line is way too short as I'd make it about a TD, I'll take the gift here in what should be an easy win.
Colgate: This line is one of the many I mentioned in another thread that seem to happen 2 or 3 times a week throughout the season. No offense to the lines guy at 5D but this line is a joke. We all know the better talent doesn't always win S/U much less cover the spread. UMass is a good team, one of the better 1AA teams in the country. They could give a game to most 1A teams & probably beat a few.
Colgate is not far behind talent wise & they seem to have UMass's #. Colgate is 4-1 all time vs UMass with its only loss coming at UMass back in 2004 in a game that could have gone either way. Both teams are about equal on both sides of the ball with the slight defensive edge to UMass. However Colgate's D has been known to give the UMass offense fits like last year's 8 turnover nightmate. Colgate picked off UMass 5 times & recovered 3 fumbles.
Colgate should win a tight game S/U & if by some chance they lose, I don't see it being by over a TD much less almost 2!
Albany: The one thing that will keep Albany in the game & within this # is their defense. Their offense isn't pretty & wouldn't stand a chance matching scores with Lehigh. If they play their defensive game, this should be a cover. If they don't, well they'll probably get beat by about 35. However I like my chances of Albany bringing the D & losing by 14-17 at most.
Richmond: This is an underrated 1AA team which plays solid D & I think their D is what will help them pull off a S/U win. However it won't be that big of a deal or shock to me as Duke is well Duke.
Appalachian St: The #1 team in the land has the goods & horses to give most 1A teams a good game & beat some as well. NC St better take this team seriously as they won't lay down. I expect a tough game from these guys who have the talent on both sides of the ball to not only stay close but possibly win S/U by 7-10 pts.
09/02/06 Recap:
19-12-01 61% +520 (Based on to win $100 per wager for record purposes only)
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Season:
25-17-01 60% +560 (Based on to win $100 per wager for record purposes only)
Eastern Washington +31 -115 over West Virginia
Stony Brook PK -115 over Georgetown
Northeastern -12 -115 over Holy Cross
Monmouth -16 -115 over Morgan St.
Duquesne -3 -115 over Robert Morris
Wagner -17 -115 over Iona
Nicholls St. +34 -115 over Nebraska
Howard +24 -115 over Hampton
Massachusetts +9 -115 over Navy
Montana -13 -115 over South Dakota St.
Samford +36 -115 over Georgia Tech
Western Illinois +36 -115 over Wisconsin
James Madison +4 -115 over Appalachian St.
Bethune-Cookman -31 -115 over Savannah St.
Maine +4 -115 over Youngstown St.
Hofstra +14.5 -115 over Marshall
Texas St. +11.5 -115 over Kentucky
Lehigh +3.5 -115 over Villanova
Fordham +15 -115 over Albany
Western Kentucky PK -115 over Eastern Kentucky
Gardner Webb -6 -115 over Tennessee Tech
Florida A&M +57 -115 over Miami Fla
Northwestern St. +19 -115 over Baylor
Bucknell +7.5 -115 over Lafayette
St. Francis Pennsylvania +28 -115 over Delaware St.
Eastern Illinois -7 -115 over Indiana St.
Sacred Heart -6 -115 over Marist
Southeastern Louisiana +28.5 -115 over Southern Mississippi
The Citadel -15 -115 over Charleston Southern
Illinois St. -23.5 -115 over Central Arkansas
Northern Arizona +25 -115 over Utah
Northern Colorado +28 -115 over Portland St.
Cal Poly -4 -115 over Weber St.
Ok it is very early & I should be getting some sleep. Before I do, I'll comment like last week on a few of my favorite 1AA plays this weekend. These are in no order of preference but instead rotation order/order they are listed in this thread. The plays I briefly wrote about did well last week at 6-2, & I hope to continue that this week. Now lets begin:
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1. Stony Brook PK -115: The bottom line in this game is that the Sea Wolves are the better team on both sides of the ball. I was more than impressed with how they competed with a Hofstra team who I think will surprise many in the best conference in 1AA foootball, that being the Atlantic 10. Stony Brook should find the Hoyas much easier to deal with & win by double digits & pick up the first win of the Chuck Priore era.
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2. Wagner -17 -115: This game has route written all over it. The Gaels are clearly overmatched on both sides of the ball. The series has been dominated by Wagner to the tune of 15-1 with the lone loss coming in 1993! The talent level at both schools is not equal & those results have played out in the series.
The big concern for Iona is the turnover bug which always seems to plague them. In the last season's meeting between these two, Iona was picked off 4 times. The Gaels showed that some things never changed as they demonstrated last week against Division III school Montclair St.
The Gaels lost to Div III Montclair St. 21-7 mostly due to their 6 turnover performance with 5 of them being interceptions. Yes, the game was played in bad conditions but it was a status quo game of theirs as far as costly turnovers go. The reason this is a big deal is because their mistakes in the passing game will prove costly against Wagner. Wagner was 2nd last year in 1AA with 21 INT's & Iona will be facing most of the same defense today.
Wagner should be able to name the score & probably shutout Iona who will be their own worst enemy as usual. If they do score, it would probably be 10 at most & Wagner should be good for 30+.
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3. Nicholls St +34 -115: This is a game some have commented on already. While I do respect someone who goes to the school & knows the team well, I have to stick with my #'s & analysis of the game.
The game is a perfect letdown spot for a Nebraska team who knows they will win this game. All they want to do is get some decent work in, escape injury free, & get ready for USC. Callahan can claim all he wants that he focused strictly on Nicholls St but he is full of shit. Who in their right mind would when you have a marquee game on the road next week.
The style of play Nicholls St plays also suits to them covering an almost 5 TD #. They are all about the run as they were 2nd in the country last year among 1AA teams in net rushing yards, yards per carry, & yards per game. The Colonels ran for 3,648 yards overall, 5.83 ypc, & 364.80 ypg. Their offense averaged 69 plays per game with 64 being running plays.
When I am looking for a big dog, I love to see a team that can pound the rock which will help even more with the new clock rules. If they can avoid turning the ball over 4 or 5 times & keep the game honest which I think they can, they should be able to cover this game wire to wire.
In the end, I can't pass up:
1. A huge scheduling advantage
2. A superior opponent with no incentive to play their best, show too much on offense, get any injuries in a meaningless game, etc....
3. An offense whose style of play is normally hard to prepare for & one of the best at executing it.
4. A style of offense that helps with the new clock rules
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4. Howard +24 -115: The line is way too high in this matchup. Yes, Hampton is the better team of the two but not by this many points. The #1 reason Howard will cover this game wire to wire is their defense.
Last season the Bison lead the MEAC in rushing & overall defense. They were the only team in to hold their opponents to under 100 ypg on the ground. They only allowed 1 100 yard rusher & that was against Florida A&M.
The game will feature Hampton's strength against the Bison's strength. The Pirates led the MEAC in net rushing yards & was 2nd with 238.42 yards per game on the ground.
Both teams want to open up the offense more & this has been a priority on the part of the Hampton Pirates. This would suit them well as it would take the advantage out of the Bison's hand with their rushing defense. However I was not impressed with their offensive showing even before starting QB Princeton Shepherd went down with an injury & was replaced by TJ Mitchell who was making his collegiate debut. Yes, they put up good #'s against Grambling but Howard's defense is much better.
The Bison's defense loses all conference safety & rookie Colts player Antoine Bethea but will still be lead by many upper classmen & starters at key defensive positions so I expect the same conference leading defense to keep the Bison in the game.
My only concern is the fact that they are starting Will Blanden who will start his first collegiate game at QB. However he has looked good running a new more wide open offense in practice so they head into the game with some confidence.
However in the end, I'm counting on the Bison's superior defense to keep this game very competitive & produce a wire to wire cover. The cause will be aided greatly if the Pirates all MEAC tailback Alonzo Coleman sits out or is limited in his effectiveness. He is coming off an injury he suffered in last week's game against Grambling which kept him out of the 2nd half. On Tuesday Coach Taylor said he was unsure if Alonzo would play this week. If I find out anything about this before gametime, I will post.
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5. Massachusetts +9 -115: This should be a great game & I urge people to check it out if they happen to have CSTV. UMass is one of the upper echelon 1AA teams who have a good shot at the 1AA National Title. They are no strangers to playing 1A teams as they have done so 7 of the last 8 years.
The Minutemen have proven to play 1A teams tough over the years including hanging real good against Boston College 2 years ago & losing a game they should have won last year against Army when they lost by 7. The intimidation factor some 1AA teams have when stepping up doesn't exist here for a team that imo has a great shot at winning outright.
Their defense is one of the best in the country as it led the country in scoring defense, 17th against the run allowing 116.09 ypg, & 3rd overall. Many of the same players are back on a defense that I feel is superior to Navy's. I also think their offensive skilled players are just as talented if not more than Navy's.
The game boils down to Navy's offensive strength vs Massachusetts defensive strength. I give the advantage to the Minutemen. On the offensive side of the ball, their OL is one of the best in the country led by senior & captain C Alex Miller & LG David Thompson who have started every game of their career. The OL not only blocks well, they also protect the passer well which will be key to exploit what I feel is Navy's defensive weakness, their secondary.
IMO this game will be won via the cover & very likely S/U by the Minutemen because of their superior defense along with the ability to exploit Navy's secondary for big plays along with some solid running from Steve Baylark who has topped the century mark in 8 of his last 17 games.
The Minutemen will be in this game to win it & as I said won't be intimidated by the competition, the crowd, or situation. Don't underestimate the fact that they have hung tough in much tougher environments & bigger stadiums so this should play well into their hands. Don't be surprised if the A10 produces yet another S/U win as if any conference is capabable of stepping up to deliver it is the A10. This conference has pulled off such wins in the last few seasons including Maine over Mississippi St in Starksville & New Hampshire over Rutgers on the road.
One last factor to consider is these 2 head coaches know each other very well. They faced off twice in 2 of their biggest games when Paul Johnson coached at Georgia Southern & Don Brown was the defensive coordinator for UMass. They split the matchups 1-1 as UMASS beat GSU for their only national title & GSU got revenge in the quarterfinals of the 1AA playoffs the following season. This game should be quite a good one!
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6. Western Illinois +36 -115: I am one of probably many who don't think much of Wisconsin this year. WIU is a pretty decent team with enough talent to hang with the Badgers.
One key factor I think will work to WIU's advantage is being prepared for the rowdy atmosphere that will be waiting for them at Camp Randall. The Leathernecks head coach Don Patterson knows the Big 10 well & how to handle a trip to Camp Randall. He was an assistant coach at Iowa from 1979-1998 & imo will have his kids ready for what to expect.
If by some chance the game gets out of hand, the backdoor possibility should be alive here as I don't picture new Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema running up the score. The reason being is he & defensive backs coach Kerry Cooks have known Don since they were 18 & coached alongside him after their playing days. The 3 have remained close over the years especially Bret & Don.
If this game turns into some sort of rout you are pretty much guaranteed the opportunity at the backdoor if needed & Wisconsin not trying to rub it in. The main quote that I found very important came from Don during this past week. The quote was: “We both obviously want to win the game, but not at the expense of losing a friend in the process." This game reeks of a backroom I'll call off the dogs on you if it gets out of hand deal. I'll take any advantage I can get & a generous 5+ td spread to boot.
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7. Bethune Cookman -31 -115: "Come on I shouldn't even explain this one. They are playing Savannah State which means it is pretty much an automatic cover. One of these days someone will get the clue that Savannah State is probably the worst 1AA team in the country. They have offensive talent & can put up some points. The problem is the defense which is allowing an average of almost 50 points. They couldn't stop most high school teams."
The paragraph above is what I had to say about this same matchup last season. Unfortunately for the Tigers not much has changed. The blunt truth is when I saw Savannah St on the board the last couple of seasons in football, they were an automatic bet against & I can't recall ever losing.
I think 5D eventually got the hint as I didn't see some of their later games up on the board during the season. While I respect their first year head coach Theo Lemon, he won't have this squad playing better defense & overall until late this season if not next. In the meantime I will keep taking the free money.
Lets look at some #'s & the #1 reason why BC should destroy Savannah St. The #1 reason why I see this game being more of the same from last year is the offensive strength of BC versus one of the many weaknesses of Savannah St.
Bethune Cookman's rushing attack was one of the better in the country last season finishing the season ranked #9 averaging 247.36 ypg. The rushing game picked up where it left off with the triple threat of Jimmie Russell, Eric Weems, & P.J. Smith. They must be the happiest kids on campus knowing the y are facing the Tigers defense.
The Tigers defense finished last season ranked 108th out of 116 teams against the run. The Tigers defense overall was horrible, just check out these final rankings:
Rushing Defense: 108th out of 116
Pass Efficiency Defense 111th out of 116
Total Defense 92nd out of 116
Scoring Defense 116 out of 116
& BC will be facing pretty much the same exact players from last year's awful squad. Coach Lemon has tried installing a new attitude on both sides of the ball but one man can only do so much with inferior talent. They want to pile on points but it won't matter as they could score 20 but will give up 50+.
The new attitude on both sides of the ball obviously didn't pan out as they were defeated for the second season in the row by Benedict College who isn't even a top 40 Div II school. Benedict beat them by 17 in 2005 & 14 last week. Don't get confused either as it wasn't a case of Benedict getting lucky, they outplayed Savannah St. Lets look at a list of catagories Benedict defeated Savannah in:
First Downs: 15-13
Rushing: 192-75
Total Offense: 302-215
Kickoff Yards: 214-94
Also let me point out how all of this was done with Savannah St. winning the time of possession battle by 13+ minutes (36:51 - 23:09). BC also missed a FG & lost 3 fumbles! The numbers do not lie & paint a real good picture of how bad this team really is.
In the end Bethune Cookman should be able to name their score here. If a barely average Benedict College could dice their run defense for 192 yards, what do you think Bethune will do? I just don't see how Savannah could even score enough to backdoor this game. One last piece of info which isn't good for Savannah & that is BC is coming into this game quite focused after losing a tough game against Southern last week due to a missed PAT & 3 costly turnovers. The Tigers should be BC's bitches this week!
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8. Fordham +15 -115: I am a huge fan of Albany's D as I mentioned last week when I was big on them against Lehigh. However the reason I'm against them is mostly on principal. I do not believe in laying double digits with a team that has trouble scoring. They could easily blank Fordham & still not cover this game. Fordham should lose by 10 the most.
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9. Florida A&M +57 -115: Sure they have no shot against Miami & for sure will get blown out. Two factors though which are important.
#1. As mad as Miami is about their loss against Florida St., do you really trust that offense to outscore anyone by 8+ td's?
#2 Coker is not the type of guy to run up the score. He knows this game is a gimmie. He will get his guys some work, get the big lead & run out the clock. Unless FAMU turns it over repeatedly within their own 20 3+ times, Miami should win by 40 the most.
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10. Eastern Illinois -7 -115: Yes, I know Indiana St. is improving & playing hard. I also mentioned how they can score a ton of points. However as much as they can score & have improved, they are not within 2 TD's of this squad even at home. E. Ill will win by a minimum of 17 so laying TD is an absolute gift which I will take all day. It will take multiple turnovers for Indiana St. to cover this #. I don't see it happening as E. Ill goes to town on the Sycamore defense.
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11. The Citadel -15 -115: Complete mismatch in this game. Although CSU has closed the gap compared to the prior meetings the last few years, it still isn't enough to stay within 21 of the Bulldogs in the 4th installment of the “Chucktown Throwdown”.
The Buccaneers would have to play mistake free football to cover this #. I don't see it happening in what should be an exciting environment. The Bulldogs want to erase the 32 point loss to Texas A&M last week & get a huge win in the home opener of the newly renovated Johnson Hagood Stadium. I see them doing just that & winning by 3 TD's.
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12. Illinois St -23.5 -115: This is another game that is a clear mismatch. I'm sure the line is a tad inflated due to the almost upset of Kansas St. last week in a game they should have won. Normally I would be worried about a possible letdown spot but am not one bit in this contest. Some reasons why include:
1. Home field as Hancock Stadium is a tough place to play.
2. The Redbirds are 5-1 under Coach Johnson in home openers with a 38.2 average winning margin.
3. The Redbirds are 10-2 under Coach Johnson against non-conference opponents.
However the main reason why this game has rout written all over it is the absolute talent mismatch between these two squads. The Redbirds could go through the motions & still cover this game easily. The Bears are in their first season as a 1AA team & will join the Southland Conference next season.
The fact is they do not have anywhere near the talent the Redbirds have to compete with these guys. The best they could probably hope for is to stay close for a half before the superior talent pulls away & takes over the game. This should be an easy cover for the Redbirds.
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13. Northern Arizona +25 -115: This team has good talent & can compete with its share of 1A teams. The Utes are probably not as bad as UCLA made them look but even with saying that, the Lumberjacks imo have enough talent to not only hang with the Utes but pull a possible upset. They handed the Sun Devils the victory in their first game against the big boys, I don't seem them making the same mistakes twice. They should easily cover this game wire to wire & stay within what would really need to be 4 TD's.
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14. Northern Colorado +28 -115: One of my main tools in capping any sort of college football especially is to take advantage of line scams. Northern Colorado is not 4 TD's worse than Portland St. The # is clearly inflated because Portland St. pulled off a so called shocker over a 1A team. Truth be told, Portland St. was the better team going in & they did what they should have done, won. I'm taking the extra 7+ points I'm getting because they did something "they weren't supposed to do".
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15. Cal Poly -4 -115: The linesmakers were fucking clueless with this opener. Cal Poly is double digits better than Weber St even on the road yet they throw up a -4 opener. I guess some others saw how ridiculous of a line it was as the spread has almost tripled to -11. Cal Poly's running game will be the reason why they win this game by double digits. If by some chance they lose it will be because of a ton of turnovers or lucky bounces for Weber. I'm not banking on that happening. The Mustangs should score early & often & cover wire to wire.
I'm tired, I need some rest!
Nicholls St. +35
James Madison +8.5
I thought I played New Hampshire when the lines came out during the week at the opener of +20. I logged into my account & noticed I skipped over it. I am not playing it now since it is down to 15.5 However don't be surprised if NH stays quite close (withing 2 TD's) if not wins outright against Northwestern.
NH is a dangerous team who is one of the favorites to win the national title. The #2 ranked Wildcats of New Hampshire will represent 1AA in a big way against the Big 10 & 1A overall. GL New Hampshire, I'll be rooting you on as a 1AA fan!
1AA GOTY:
Stony Brook +55 -115 over New Hampshire
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San Diego +9.5 -115 over Yale
Villanova +19 -115 over Massachusetts
Southern Illinois +10.5 -115 over Indiana
Update later tonight, will talk about a few games, etc.....
Thursday:
Tennessee Tech +30 -115 over Middle Tennessee St.
Austin Peay +38 -115 over Samford
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Murray St. +9 -115 over Indiana St.
Holy Cross +19 -115 over Harvard
Fordham PK -115 over Columbia
Georgetown +27 -115 over Brown
Pennsylvania +1 -115 over Lafayette
Colgate -12 -115 over Dartmouth
Duquesne -16 -115 over St. Francis PA
Lehigh +3 -115 over Princeton
St. Peter's +45 -115 over Monmouth
Iona +30 -115 over Sacred Heart
Hampton -36.5 -115 over North Carolina A&T
Southern -17.5 -115 over Prarie View A&M
VMI +41 -115 over Richmond
Penn St -25 -115 over Youngstown St
McNeese St +10 -115 over Louisiana Lafayette
South Dakota +30 -115 over Northern Iowa
Liberty +20.5 -115 over Towson
I will have more when more lines are put up. Some interesting games coming up this weekend.
Robert Morris -10 -115 over Butler
Idaho St. +14 -115 over Idaho
Bethune Cookman +8 -115 over South Carolina St.
Portland St. +28 -115 over California
Albany +25 -115 over Delaware
Tennessee Chatanooga +10 -115 over Western Kentucky
Furman +17 -115 over North Carolina
Coastal Carolina +10 -115 over Georgia Southern
Texas St. -11 -115 over Northern Colorado
Cornell -10 -115 over Bucknell
Marist -3 -115 over Wagner
Northwestern St. -4.5 -115 over Delaware St.
Se Louisiana -25.5 -115 over Jacksonville
South Carolina -25 -115 over Wofford
Maine +10.5 -115 over William & Mary
Eastern Illinois +18 -115 over Illinois St.
Sam Houston +10 -115 over SMU
Southern Utah +5.5 -115 over Weber St.
Cal Poly -12 -115 over Sacramento St.
Arizona -27 -115 over Stephen F. Austin
lol...i dont even think my book would let me play these..haha
NittanyLions94
09-13-2006, 06:05 PM
Where do you make plays on aa, II, and III games?
I'm glad you find it funny Pow, GL2U.
Nittany: 5 Dimes, Pinnacle, BetUs & Catalina offer 1AA lines. 5 Dimes will once in awhile have a line up involving a II or III team if facing a 1AA. They will have II & III lines up for the playoffs. Pinnacle has 1AA only, same with BetUs & Catalina.
5 Dimes has them up the earliest as they are up when I post selections. So on average sometime Wednesday afternoon or Thursday the latest.
San Diego +9.5 +100
Southern Illinois +12 -105
Coastal Carolina +13 -105
South Carolina -23 -105
Last week's recap:
12-23-00 34% -1435 (Based on to win $100 per wager for record purposes only)
Last week was not good but that was quite obvious. I'm not getting down as there is plenty of season left. This is not a sprint so I take this in stride.
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Season:
37-40-01 48% -875 (Based on to win $100 per wager for record purposes only)
Ok it is very early & I should be getting some sleep. Before I do, I'll comment like last week on a few of my favorite 1AA plays this weekend. These are in no order of preference but instead rotation order/order they are listed in this thread. The plays I briefly wrote about did well last week at 6-2, & I hope to continue that this week. Now lets begin:
Last week's breakdown picks went a subpar 7-8, but that isn't a surprise as the 1AA week was a downer for me. This now brings the breakdown picks record to 13-10. This week I'm here to breakdown some games again starting with my overall 1AA game of the year.
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1. Stony Brook +55:
Normally I don't have a game of the year this early in the season. However when I saw this line, I just knew this would be it. So last week I thought I played New Hampshire +20 but later noticed I skipped over it by accident. I didn't take the line of 15.5 with the fear of a meaningless td for them to lose by 17. However I did mention I wouldn't be surprised they kept it close (within 2 TD's) or won outright. So now I'm to believe that they are worth a 75 point opening line swing from last week until this week, I don't think so.
Yes, they beat a 1A team which I'm quite excited for. However they are not getting Savannah St on deck as that would be an easy lay of about 8 TD's. The Wildcats are now up against an improving Seawolves team from the Northeast Conference. Last year, a # like this would have made more sense. However with the improved play along with new coach, this team in its first two games has shown me it isn't going to be a pushover this season.
The #1 reason they will stay in the game is because of their defense. The Seawolves defense is ranked #33 in the country allowing 267 total yards per game. A key game for me is their matchup against Hofstra to begin the season. The reason the Hofstra matchup was key for me in this game is it gave me a good idea of where this defense is. The Hofstra Pride are imo a sleeper team in the always tough Atlantic 10 who could give any team in the country fits includnig #1 New Hampshire.
The Seawolves defense gave Hofstra's offense fits the entire game. I had to admit even I was shocked as I didn't think they could do that going into the matchup. This imo bolds well for them as the fear of facing another strong offense won't be there when they line up against the Wildcats. The Seawolves defense vs Wildcats offense should provide some interesting matchups.
Their defensive strength is the run but they do defend the pass well allowing 121.12 ypg. The Wildcats do have a great offense that could score tons of points, no one doubts that. However their D is not a shutdown defense that you can rely on to not give up its share of points. This is not the kind of scenario you want when laying 8 TD's.
Lets throw out the stats however & focus on the emotional aspect of this matchup. The Wildcats opened their season by beating a 1A team. No matter what you think of Northwestern overall, it is considered a huge win for the program when a 1AA can beat a 1A team. Lets not forget how 2 years ago in this same scenario, they lost the week after beating Rutgers. This imo is a perfect letdown spot for them as this game is a gimmie win for them along with next week's matchup against Dartmouth.
The Wildcats main focus will be to get through these two gimmie wins & get ready for the beginning of the A10 season in 2 weeks @ Delaware. The 8 TD's should be all you need & then some in the points department with a team facing the obvious letdown against an improved team with a sold defense.
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2. Murray St. +9:
This is another line that makes absolutely no sense. Yes, Indiana St has shown signs of being on the upswing since the middle of last season. However this doesn't justify a team winless since 2004 & having lost to this same team last season is now laying 2 scores. I know some will ask, what about the revenge factor? Well no offense but Indiana St must have almost 2 years worth backed up already & it hasn't done them much good.
I saw the Sycamores game last week against Illinois St. Do not be fooled by the final margin of defeat only being 10. The Sycamores were lucky to only lose by 10. Recall one particular statement I made about last week's game: "It will take multiple turnovers for Indiana St. to cover this #."
The Sycamores got the turnovers but still couldn't do anything with it. E. Illinois played like shit the 1st H as they shot themselves in the foot with gadget plays. When they stuck to the basics, they went to town on the Sycamores defense. The Sycamores could not stop the run even when they knew it was coming.
The Sycamores gave up 347 yards rushing last week which is a big reason why they got outscored 28-12 in the 2nd H last week. This won't help as they face a Murray St team who got their running game on track last week in a 25-15 loss to Tennessee St. The score is misleading as they played a good game but turned the ball over 5 times. The Racers running backs must be salivating to pad their stats against the Sycamore rush defense.
The Racers are coming into this game looking to make up for the game they gave away last week. They are motivated & have confidence knowing they handled this same team last year & can easily do it again due to the Sycamores poor defense. They are the overall better team, getting almost 2 scores on the road against a team desperate for a win.
The Sycamores would need to play a perfect game to beat Murray St & I'm not banking on that happen. If they were to somehow come out on top, I still feel confident the points are way too many for a poor defense that can stop no one. The wrong team is favored here & Murray St should win outright by 10-14.
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3. Fordham PK:
This game is the 15th meeting for the Liberty Cup. The matchup is the season/home opener as well as the much anticipated debut of new head coach Norries Wilson. His team has had a strong summer getting prepared to try & improve on a horrible season last year. While he has installed some confidence & attitude into the Lions, I just can't see them being game ready for a Rams team who has a 2-0 real game speed advantage.
The line is quite soft especially after Fordham's outright win against a good Albany team. The line is a gift considering the huge scheduling advantage the Rams have. The effects will really show in the 4th Q especially if the game is close. The Rams will be in a dog fight but should pull away late to win by a TD.
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4. Lehigh +3:
This line is a huge joke & I'm not surprised it has now swung 5 points & features Lehigh as a 2 point favorite. Yes, Princeton has dominated the overall series 36-11-2 heading into this game. However Lehigh has won the last 7 meetings. The last win for the Tigers in this series dates back to 1993. The Hawks are a pretty tough home team to begin with but beside that they hold some key advantages over the Tigers.
The first big advantage they have is the real game speed advantage. They already have 2 full games under their belt which includes last week's big win to give new head coach Andy Coen his first win as a head coach. The second big advantage they have is how familiar Coach Coen is with the Princeton Tigers. He served the previous 6 years as Penn's offensive coordinator. However the biggest advantage comes in the trenches.
The Tigers besides having the disadvantage of real game speed face a huge challenge on the offensive line. They are breaking in 5 new guys on the offensive line along with a new tight end. This is a huge factor as last year's OL featured 5 seniors. Last year's OL while having experience also had talent as it featured one All Ivy pick (Ben Brielmaier) & two All Ivy honors (Paul Lyons & Dave Szelingowski).
I think the inexperience along the entire offensive line will only further hamper an offense that will not be up to game speed against a solid Lehigh defense. This huge disadvantage alone should prove to be all we need for a cover & more likely a double digit outright win.
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5. St. Peter's +45:
This play is much like last week's Fordham + the # over Albany selection. I respect the Hawks of Monmouth as to me they are one of the best teams in the Northeast Conference. However like Albany, the strength of their team is their defense. They feature one of the best defenses in all of 1AA football. They don't need to score many points with the defense they have. They finished last season #21 in overall defense & have picked up where they left off as they currently sit at #13.
I can't see the Hawks giving up over 10 points in this game if even that. On the flip side though, their offense just can't be trusted to win by 7 scores. They will easily win by double digits but by 25-30 the most imo. I see them getting a big lead & just wanting to get out injury free in anticipation of the big game against Colgate next week. The points are generous with a potential look ahead spot upcoming, it should cash.
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6. VMI +41:
This matchup is another example of a # that is way too high. Richmond is an underrated1AA team who did not shock me when they beat Duke 2 weeks ago. If you recall prior to the matchup I made this statement: "This is an underrated 1AA team which plays solid D & I think their D is what will help them pull off a S/U win" The statement says it all about Richmond. When you talk about the Spiders, the defense is what is mentioned first.
The Spiders defense is what keeps them in just about any game & is what brought them to the dance. This team is not going to march up & down the field on you to score points which is something you want to see when laying 6 TD's. The line also happens to be inflated after the fact they beat a 1A team even if it was only Duke. On paper this is an automatic W as no way VMI could beat RIchmond. They have some talent but absolutely no depth & are severely undersized.
However even with this, I still feel confident in VMI getting 6 TD's here. Richmond's offense isn't known for putting up many points. When they get decent sized leads, they are known for playing even closer to the vest & getting out with the W. Also their QB is a redshirt freshman making only his 2nd career start. This same matchup last year was a 35 point win for the Spiders.
I'll take the 6 extra points with an offense that should be good for atleast 3-7 points & facing an offense with a QB making only his 2nd start in what should be a easy scrimmage. They will win by 28-32 points & be happy with the easy W.
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7. Penn St. -25:
I love setup games like this which usually play out exactly how they look. The Nittany Lions have a sandwich game at the perfect time of the season. I'm not one who overall likes backing teams in games like this but certain times it is the right thing to do. The Nittany Lions have a huge matchup against the #1 team in the land & rival next week at the Horseshoe. Yes, they are obviously looking forward to that game.
However they have a bad taste in their mouth after being embarassed on national tv by 24 to the Fighting Irish. They do not have any extra time to stew & think about it. Instead they get a 1AA team to take their frustrations out on. I know Youngstown is ranked # 6 (fraud #6 mind you) but they are in a bad spot here.
They are already outmanned in terms of talent on both sides of the ball & now have a team pissed & looking to take it out on someone. Wrong place wrong time for the Penguins who should get trounced by 35+ here. If Penn St somehow lets Youngstown make a game out of this, it will tell me alot about their manhood.
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8. Idaho St. +14:
This game is a in state rilvary game with a little twist. In my opinion Idaho is in a dangerous spot here as they are most likely overlooking Idaho St in this spot. Yes, it is an in-state rilvary but it is sandwiched between two Pac 10 games for the Vandals. As much as Coach Erickson would like to get a W after the beating Washington St put on them, this game can't mean anywhere near as much as next week's game. Next week he goes back to Beaver Country to face his old team.
Yes, Idaho is the better team of two on both sides of the ball & has better depth. I see this game going either of two ways, the Vandals whip ass for last week's debacle or they go through the motions & let State catch them offguard. I'm banking on scenario # 2 playing out as Idaho St either keeps it close or wins outright.
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9. Albany +25:
Delaware is the superior team without question. However one thing I know about the Blue Hens, they have a tendency to play down to their competition. Even if they didn't fall into that trap, they are going up against a real tough D that can keep Albany in the game against any team in the country. Albany's offense leaves much to be desired however I have full confidence their D can let them hang with the Blue Hens & even possibly steal an outright win.
The line is quite genroues & a tad inflated from Albany losing last week as a 15 point favorite. Well I'll take advantage of the generous line based on last week's result & line which lets be honest was a horrible line to begin with. When will people learn, you don't lay double digits with a bad offense!
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10. South Carolina -23 & -25:
I played the game at 25 when it opened & got some more when it dropped to 23. The news about Blake Mitchell is already common knowledge & the line drop seemed to reflect the news. However I'm thinking the opposite of this game. Spurrier is an offensive genius who got embarassed last week with his offense laying a goose egg.
This matchup against a mediocre Wofford team is the medicine he needs. IMO it wouldn't matter who he had at QB back there, they will score early & often in a game I see them winning by almost double this spread. Wofford is walking right into a huge example asswhooping & won't know what hit it. This # should honestly be covered by HT if not the 1st Q.
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11. Eastern Illinos +18:
Southern Illinois comes into this game real banged up after their game against Central Arkansas. They are running into an Eastern Illinois team with good talent on both sides of the ball & are desperate for a win. They really could use a win here for a playoff push with one loss already & a possible 2nd at Hawaii. They are catching the Redbirds limping in & should play them easily within this # if not outright. I'll back the team with as good talent, less injuries, & in need of a win with the generous 3 score #.
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12. Cal Poly -12:
Like last week, this line is way too short. Cal Poly like last week is the superior team on both the offensive & defensive side of the football. Sacramento St got shut out two weeks ago at Boise & face a Cal Poly defense looking for its 3rd straight shutout. Cal Poly imo will shut Sac St out & if they do give up points it will be 7-10 max. It won't matter as Cal Poly will score at minimum 35 on these guys. This one should be a easy cover by HT.
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13. Arizona -27:
Poor Lumberjacks of Stephen F Austin is what you will hear after this game is done. Arizona got their ass handed to them in the Bayou last week & come home pissed about it. This is where punching bag SFA comes in right on time. Arizona's offense isn't that good but it shouldn't matter as SFA should be the perfect way to get it on track. The Wildcats can be up 28-0 & I would probably mark it as a win.
The SFA offense has been flat out garbage especially their passing game. Arizona's d is just going to have a field day with this bunch. SFA will be lucky to score 7 points in this game. This game is another that can & should be easily covered by HT.
I am tired & need some sleep but look for Furman to either win s/u or lose by 7-10 at most against UNC. The # is way too high & especially for a Tar Heel offense that has not shown much of a scoring punch.
Thursday:
Tennessee Tech +17 -115 over Eastern Kentucky
New Hampshire -27 -115 over Dartmouth
Delaware -4 -115 over Rhode Island
Jacksonville -7 -115 over Butler
Georgetown +10 -115 over Columbia
Stony Brook +36.5 -115 over Massachusetts
Yale -1 -115 over Cornell
Brown +6 -115 over Harvard
Bucknell +24 -115 over Richmond
Monmouth +14 -115 over Colgate
Austin Peay +24 -115 over Dayton
LaSalle +10 -115 over St. Francis
Wagner -24 -115 over St. Peter's
The Citadel +36 -115 overe Pittsburgh
Nicholls St -7 -115 over South Dakota St
Montana -18 -115 over Sacramento St
Western Illinois -3 -115 over Northern Colorado
Central Connecticut +5.5 -115 over Albany
Morgan St +21.5 -115 over Hampton
Idaho St +4 -115 over Northern Arizona
San Jose St -2.5 -115 over Cal Poly
Lafayette +5.5 -115 over Princeton
James Madison -4 -115 over Northeastern
Appalachian St -21 -115 over Gardner Webb
Liberty -19 -115 over Savannah St
UC Davis -5.5 -115 over Youngstown St
Texas Tech -41 -115 over SE Louisiana
Western Carolina +12.5 -115 over Furman
Tennessee St +35 -115 over Vanderbilt
Hofstra -6.5 -115 over Towson
Eastern Illinois -3 -115 over Samford
William & Mary -28 -115 over VMI
Arkansas Pine Bluff +33 -115 over Southern Illinois
Portland St -14 -115 over Weber St
Stony Brook +39.5
Yale +5
Bucknell +31.5
Monmouth +16.5
LaSalle +12.5 -105
Howard +45
Morgan St. +25 -105
Lafayette +4 +109
UC Davis -3
Western Carolina +13 -114
Portland St. -12.5 -105
Ohio +21.5 -107
Ohio +1400
Stillman College +8 -115 over Miles College
Thursday:
Northern Colorado +8.5 -115 over Weber St
====================
Brown -2 -115 over Rhode Island
Texas -45 -115 over Sam Houston St.
Maine +27 -115 over Boston College
Fordham +11 -115 over Holy Cross
Pennsylvania -17.5 -115 over Dartmouth
Richmond -15 -115 over Northeastern
Yale +9 -115 over Lafayette
Dayton -25.5 -115 over Butler
Georgetown +15.5 -115 over Colgate
San Diego -24 -115 over Davidson
Lehigh +4.5 -115 over Harvard
Bucknell -13 -115 over Marist
Stony Brook +17 -115 over Monmouth
Wagner -5 -115 over Sacred Heart
Robert Morris -5.5 -115 over St. Francis Pennsylvania
Central Connecticut St -28 -115 over St. Peter's
Jacksonville +7 -115 over Valparaiso
James Madison -35 -115 over VMI
Hofstra +7 -115 over William & Mary
Princeton -8.5 -115 over Columbia
Liberty +38 -115 over Wake Forest
Furman -10.5 -115 over Wofford
North Carolina A&T +18.5 -115 over Norfolk St
Sacramento St +12 -115 over Eastern Washington
Northern Arizona -8.5 -115 over Montana St
Delaware +15.5 -115 over New Hampshire
Northern Iowa +14 -115 over Iowa St
Indiana St +33.5 -115 over Southern Illinois
Tennessee Tech +8 -115 over Murray St
Western Illinois PK -115 over Western Kentucky
Albany -6 -115 over Cornell
Austin Peay +24.5 -115 over Tennessee Martin
Hampton -7 -115 over Delaware St
Stephen F. Austin +17 -115 over North Dakota St
Youngstown St -17 -115 over Missouri St
Prairie View A&M +17 -115 over Grambling
South Dakota St +5.5 -115 over McNeese St
Cal Poly -14.5 -115 over Southern Utah
Montana +3 -115 over Portland St
Eastern Illinois +28 -115 over Hawaii
Fordham +12 -105
Lehigh +6.5 -105
Wagner -3.5 -105
Sacramento St +14 -105
Delaware +16 -105
Northern Iowa +14.5 -105
Northern Iowa +15 -115
Indiana St +35 -105
Albany -3.5 -105
Hampton -4.5 -106
Youngstown St -15.5 -105
Prairie View A&M +18 -105
Eastern Illinois +28.5 -115
DJTranks
09-29-2006, 12:08 PM
Good to see you TCSN! GL w/ the plays!
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