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Stifler's Mom
08-20-2006, 07:31 PM
8-3 (+9.01 units)

Holy fucking shit baseball sucks. Even if i lose both of these wagers, i will just be glad to have action on something other than fucking every fave with 80% of the public pounding them wins baseball.

Seattle +3.5 (-106)

Good Lord....I was going to take Seattle at +1 last night. Good thing I waited. Indy doesn't win preseason games, and nor do they care to. Heaven forbid precious Peyton or one of their other "finesse" players might get hurt....and I can understand the reasoning too. Why put these guys out there, some of them who are getting up there in years now, and risk injury when they know who their starters are going to be, and the guys already know the offense and what they're to do in it. If Peyton goes down, so does Indy's entire season....so I really seriously doubt he sees much action here....despite what Dungy says.

Plus, it's on national TV, the public is pounding the living shit out of Indy, and +3.5 seems like a gift for Seattle in the first place, who, if past preseason trends hold true, should win SU.

This line opened at Indy -3, quickly dropped to -1 opposite the public, and has now taken so much public action that the line is upped back to +3.5....so I upped this to 2 units because of the favorable line.

Sure, some bet smaller in the preseason, but anyone who thinks preseason football takes "light" action should know that there have been more bets placed on this game than any baseball game today. Actually, more than twice as many as most.

The only one close is tonight's Yankees/Red Sox matchup, which is still 4000 wagers behind the Colts/Seahags game.

2 units

SF +3 -122

Oakland committs FAR too many penalties. They beat Philly because Philly has no depth, and after the first string guys, they suck complete ass. Once the Eagles backups came in, it was curtains for em in that game. Then they beat Minnesota by 3....in a game where Minnesota shot themselves in the foot so many times I lost count, AND failed to kick a game tying field goal (by not even attempting it - coaches decision), which would have forced the game into OT....so at the very least, an even game.

SF on the other hand has GOT to want to perform, weather it be preseason or otherwise. They're a young team who has just got to be eager to take the field and play....and I believe they are the type of team, like Houston, that puts some weight in preseason wins. They put up 28 points on the Bears, and I see no reason they can't hit 20 against Oakland. I would think that should be enough to do it. Keeping this at my normal 1 unit for preseason, cause despite liking it, I have found no reason to grade it any stronger than any other play.

1 unit

The War Dogs
08-20-2006, 07:35 PM
Good luck Stif!

benrik
08-20-2006, 07:38 PM
Is there a site where you get the info for wagers placed and line movement from hour to hour or do you just watch it yourself?

Good Luck with the plays!

birdsfan5
08-20-2006, 07:41 PM
GL Stif i am goin to tail you on the Sea pick

Underdog88
08-20-2006, 07:43 PM
Gl Stif-agree with you on Seattle. Dungy will pull Peyton early (despite what he says) if Seattle starts to get a good rush on him-played the moneyline -currently+172 imo a really good value:thumbs:

Stifler's Mom
08-20-2006, 07:53 PM
benrik - I get most of my betting stats from sports insights. Good stuff there IMO. They give the public percentage on each side...not just ATS, but also ML, parlay, and total. They also show exactly how many people bet on any given game (from their contributing sportsbooks....not the entire world, lol)...so you can tell if a game is taking heavy public action or not. That can be a good tool in determining if a line move was due to the public playing a team, or otherwise.

Udog88 - Yea, I really don't see Indy going all out to win a preseason game. I think it's been said that Dungy has hinted that he wants to win this game in a press conference. Don't all coaches say that though? What kind of reaction would he get if he stood up and said "It's the freakin preseason man, who gives a shit"

Therefore, I see 1 qtr max for Peyton, IMHO. I mean it's only the 2nd preseason game, and about par for the course for a guy with his experience, that has absolutely nothing to prove, and everything to lose....so even if they jump out by as much as 10 points in the 1st qtr, that gives Seattle 3 to catch up against a not so hot group of backups for Indy.

Birds - Hope Seattle doesn't let us down :thumbs:

Stifler's Mom
08-20-2006, 10:35 PM
Well, assuming no dramatic comebacks, it looks like 1-1 for +.78 units tonight Almost up to the 10 units I was hoping for now at 9-4 and +9.79 units.

I thought SF could score a bit more than 7...LOL. Looks like the 20+ I was hoping for would have been enough in that one, but no such luck. Congrats to those on Oakland.

Easy winner with Seattle though....and I'll gladly take the split and small profit for the night.

birdsfan5
08-20-2006, 11:08 PM
you are the man stif:thx: