HawkPL
07-08-2006, 12:06 PM
3-2 yesterday +1.8 units
july 8 bases picks:
San Diego -134 ----- 2.68/2
Colorado +100 ------ 2/2
Boston -107-------- 2.14/2
Florida Gm 1 -102 ------ 2.04/2
1st 5 Innings Cincinnati +117----- 2/2.34
Team Total Dodgers Over 4.5 -111------ 2/1.78
*San Diego -134*
Bullpens. Pedro Astacio making his 2nd start, he's 37 years old coming off an injury... probably a reason they pulled him after 5 innings last start when he only gave up 3 hits, walked 1 guy, and gave up 1 run. IMO he isn't going deep into a game which doesn't serve well with tired arms in the pen.
You just can't ignore Chris Young anymore either. his numbers are really really good... 2.14 era on the road... nearly 7 innings per start on the road..... So Young, SD Pen 2.22 ERA Road ERA. too big of an advantage IMO.
*Colorado +100*
If you had to pick a pitcher who want on your team, obviously you take Brandon Webb over Jason Jennings.
Webb's numbers on the road are very good...2.39 ERA, 7.2 IP per start...51-12 K/BB Ratio. Arizona is still only 5-5 in his 10 road starts.
Jennings numbers aren't as sexy... but last 3 starts against American League clubs he has a 1.71 ERA, only given up 12 hits in 21 Innings. At home on the year COL is 6-2 in Jennings starts.
Jennings Innings Pitched to Strikeout Ratio is just as good as Webb's on the season. Jennings has 43 K's in 54 Innings Pitched at home... Webb 51 K's in 71 Innings Pitched on the Road.
Both pens are pretty good-- I just don't think there is any reason to overlook what Jennings is doing.
*Boston -107*
This is mostly a play for entertainment watching the game. lol
I think BOS takes this series, I'm going to be on them today... if they win, no play tomorrow... if they lose today, I will be on them again tomorrow.
Garcia doesn't strike anyone out, he can give up a lot of hits... 20 hits in his last 12 Innings. Beckett has had 3 terrible starts on the road to make his road stats look really bad. Hard to ignore that, maybe he lays an egg again, but his last 2 road starts, last 5 starts overall hasn't given up more than 3 runs with a 33K/11BB ratio.
*Florida -102*
You could make a serious case that Josh Johnson should be an all-star. Look at his numbers, he is completely flying under the radar. 2.34 ERA in 80 Innings Pitched... 1.90 ERA in 23.7 IP on the road. Hard to be much better.
John Maine, based on his minor league numbers, based on his last start when he threw 107 pitches in 4.7 Innings.... I will make the assumption he isn't the most efficient pitcher. The last 2 years in the minor leagues he is averaging 5.1 Innings per start.
If Johnson was playing for the Mets and Maine was on the Marlins.... this line would be -170 or so, easily.
*1st 5 Innings Cincy +117*
I refuse to play a full game wager with the Reds..... A strikeout guy like Harang with his road numbers... And how the Reds hit everything in sight yesterday... I'll take my chances in 5 innings that this could be a 3-1, 3-2 advantage Reds after 5.
*Team Total Dodgers Over 4.5*
Dodgers averaging 6.2 runs per game against lefties...average 6 runs per game overall at home....Overall Dodgers hitting .308 at home, .380 OB%... they have arguably the best offense in their home park of anyone in the entire league. You can't ignore those numbers as much as you want to downplay a lot of their young guys, they just keep hitting.
Lowry is going to get hit around at times since he changed his game a bit, not striking anyone out...Lowry has 29 K's in 70 Innings, thats Jamie Moyer numbers... this is a guy who had 172 K's in 200 Innings last year and averaged nearly a strikeout per inning in his minor league career.
SF pen is mediocre, they'll go in stretches of good and bad... overall 4.40 ERA on the road.... I think LA can get 7 or so in this game.
That is all I do believe.... Good Luck Today
:thumbs:
july 8 bases picks:
San Diego -134 ----- 2.68/2
Colorado +100 ------ 2/2
Boston -107-------- 2.14/2
Florida Gm 1 -102 ------ 2.04/2
1st 5 Innings Cincinnati +117----- 2/2.34
Team Total Dodgers Over 4.5 -111------ 2/1.78
*San Diego -134*
Bullpens. Pedro Astacio making his 2nd start, he's 37 years old coming off an injury... probably a reason they pulled him after 5 innings last start when he only gave up 3 hits, walked 1 guy, and gave up 1 run. IMO he isn't going deep into a game which doesn't serve well with tired arms in the pen.
You just can't ignore Chris Young anymore either. his numbers are really really good... 2.14 era on the road... nearly 7 innings per start on the road..... So Young, SD Pen 2.22 ERA Road ERA. too big of an advantage IMO.
*Colorado +100*
If you had to pick a pitcher who want on your team, obviously you take Brandon Webb over Jason Jennings.
Webb's numbers on the road are very good...2.39 ERA, 7.2 IP per start...51-12 K/BB Ratio. Arizona is still only 5-5 in his 10 road starts.
Jennings numbers aren't as sexy... but last 3 starts against American League clubs he has a 1.71 ERA, only given up 12 hits in 21 Innings. At home on the year COL is 6-2 in Jennings starts.
Jennings Innings Pitched to Strikeout Ratio is just as good as Webb's on the season. Jennings has 43 K's in 54 Innings Pitched at home... Webb 51 K's in 71 Innings Pitched on the Road.
Both pens are pretty good-- I just don't think there is any reason to overlook what Jennings is doing.
*Boston -107*
This is mostly a play for entertainment watching the game. lol
I think BOS takes this series, I'm going to be on them today... if they win, no play tomorrow... if they lose today, I will be on them again tomorrow.
Garcia doesn't strike anyone out, he can give up a lot of hits... 20 hits in his last 12 Innings. Beckett has had 3 terrible starts on the road to make his road stats look really bad. Hard to ignore that, maybe he lays an egg again, but his last 2 road starts, last 5 starts overall hasn't given up more than 3 runs with a 33K/11BB ratio.
*Florida -102*
You could make a serious case that Josh Johnson should be an all-star. Look at his numbers, he is completely flying under the radar. 2.34 ERA in 80 Innings Pitched... 1.90 ERA in 23.7 IP on the road. Hard to be much better.
John Maine, based on his minor league numbers, based on his last start when he threw 107 pitches in 4.7 Innings.... I will make the assumption he isn't the most efficient pitcher. The last 2 years in the minor leagues he is averaging 5.1 Innings per start.
If Johnson was playing for the Mets and Maine was on the Marlins.... this line would be -170 or so, easily.
*1st 5 Innings Cincy +117*
I refuse to play a full game wager with the Reds..... A strikeout guy like Harang with his road numbers... And how the Reds hit everything in sight yesterday... I'll take my chances in 5 innings that this could be a 3-1, 3-2 advantage Reds after 5.
*Team Total Dodgers Over 4.5*
Dodgers averaging 6.2 runs per game against lefties...average 6 runs per game overall at home....Overall Dodgers hitting .308 at home, .380 OB%... they have arguably the best offense in their home park of anyone in the entire league. You can't ignore those numbers as much as you want to downplay a lot of their young guys, they just keep hitting.
Lowry is going to get hit around at times since he changed his game a bit, not striking anyone out...Lowry has 29 K's in 70 Innings, thats Jamie Moyer numbers... this is a guy who had 172 K's in 200 Innings last year and averaged nearly a strikeout per inning in his minor league career.
SF pen is mediocre, they'll go in stretches of good and bad... overall 4.40 ERA on the road.... I think LA can get 7 or so in this game.
That is all I do believe.... Good Luck Today
:thumbs: