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Stifler's Mom
07-07-2006, 06:32 PM
First Half 362-437 (-79.58 units)
Second Half 21-16 (+12.68 units)
Total 383-453 (-66.90 units)

Tampon Bay +134

They beat up on Boston, who has far better pitching than the Yanks and just as much offense. Seo is no Cy Young candidate, but there's no reason for me to think this isn't a strong dog tonight against a really shitty Yankees pitcher and a really up and down team half comprised of replacement players.

Pittsburgh +160

Their road woes are well documented, but I am getting probably the better team here at a big dog price. Go ahead and laugh, but the I watch alot of Pirates games, and I think they are a better all around team than the Phils. In addition, I get to fade a pitcher coming off the DL, who sucked ass before going on it. No reason for me to think sitting out for over a month did Lieber any good what so ever.

Florida -130

This seeming low line looks trappy...and I considered avoiding it. But then I asked myself, would you play the Mets with Lima starting? The answer was hell no, so I'll take my chances. If Lima doesn't last, we all saw how poor the Mets "long relief" was in that game against Pittsburgh 4 days ago....so it's not like they have anyone dependable to bring in to stop the bleeding should Lima falter.

In reality, how much could they really favor Florida by at the Mets and expect any action on them? The Mets aren't playing that great the last few weeks either, and Randolph is sitting one of his all stars each night. Last night was Beltran. Tonight maybe David Wright? Delgado? Is he even going? LOL, I think he is....but I don't really keep close track of who goes to the all star game cause it's a popularity contest and a joke really, but it would make sense sitting the left handed batter against Willis.

Braves -139

Wow. A hot offense going against a bad pitcher in Milton, and then the worst bullpen in baseball. Ramirez has impressed recently. Hoepfully Sosa has menstrual cramps tonight or something and can't pitch if it's close. IMO this line is low just because of the threat of the Reds busting out 10 runs with their good offense. I think it should be more like -170.

KC +180

Has anyone but me noticed that KC is one of the hottest teams in baseball? They're 13-6 in their last 19 games, including putting a halt to Minnesota's excellent run, and also taking that series from them. They could have swept Minny, as they had Santana beat, but their pen gave it up late. Burnett on the other hand is a career .500 pitcher with great stuff. Toronto hasn't been hitting either, and it appears KC can hit and score off of just about anyone right now. Another dumb line on KC cause everyone still thinks they suck.

SF -106

I'm not a huge fan of playing on SF, and will probably get burned on this one, but Billingsley is bad. His control is poor, and he gets himself into trouble with walks, which 9 times out of 10 leads to disaster. Maybe if Billingsley struggles, they'll being in Odalis Perez or someone. He's been great. Not, LOL....

Dodgers won a bunch at home recently cause they were playing Pittsburgh and the D'Bags. After a rocky start, Morris on the other hand has done quite well since "settling in" for SF, and I can't ignore the apparent pitching mismatch tonight.

2 units each

Will also probably play on Seattle later. I'd just be fading the easy winner of the night. It appears Detroit should crush Seattle in that match up, yet the line opened pretty low. Don't like to back teams with geeks like Pineiro pitching all that much though, so I'm still undecided.

The War Dogs
07-07-2006, 06:43 PM
Good luck Stif!

HawkPL
07-07-2006, 08:00 PM
The guys who had a system to play against TB, KC, FL, and PIT have probably quit gambling since these 4 teams that are supposed to be shit are actually playing with teams they should lose too.
Florida and PIT are fun to watch, especially FL. they play hard, don't quit, Joe Girardi could win manager of the year and there would be no reason to argue against it... except that Leyland is going to win 120 games in DET, but other than that. lol

Stifler's Mom
07-07-2006, 08:03 PM
Originally posted by HawkPL
The guys who had a system to play against TB, KC, FL, and PIT have probably quit gambling since these 4 teams that are supposed to be shit are actually playing with teams they should lose too.
Florida and PIT are fun to watch, especially FL. they play hard, don't quit, Joe Girardi could win manager of the year and there would be no reason to argue against it... except that Leyland is going to win 120 games in DET, but other than that. lol

Ahhh....I remember the old "play against TB and double up until they lose" system.

Then they won about 20 straight that year.

I calculated it out back then and it was well over a million units lost had you faded TB every game during that streak and kept doubling up, LOL

HawkPL
07-07-2006, 08:09 PM
Well, Ramirez laid an egg... but, if there is any team to be down 6-0 too, its the Reds.

Stifler's Mom
07-07-2006, 08:19 PM
Yea....looks like Atlanta's going down tonight.

Oh well, it just goes to show how you can make the sensible plays, and they can go to shit just as easy as the ones that don't make a hell of alot of sense....like Seattle tonight.

Willis just hit a grand slam off Lima though, lol :yeah:

I don't understand how any team with Lima on the mound can be less than +200....ever. Especially when facing a quality starter like Willis, and a team like Florida that plays good fundamental ball and never quits. Lima is just horrible, and no team, no matter how "good" they are otherwise, has a very good chance to win when he's making the start.

For example, if it had been KC or Pittsburgh vs Florida tonight, and Lima was on KC or Pittsburgh, they would have been +250 or +300. Now why JUST because he is wearing a Mets uniform should there be any less chance of him getting his ass lit up?

I think I'm gonna have 2 more plays shortly and then call it a night. Just checking out the lines....

Stifler's Mom
07-07-2006, 08:28 PM
Seattle +135

I'm just going against the most popular pick of the night here. No real reasoning other than that, LOL. Should be an easy win for Detroit. Pineiro sucks.

Diamondlosers +128

Kim is the type of guy who will throw a great game or a crap game....there usually isn't much in between with him. He has an 0-2 record with a 7.88 ERA vs Arizona, which is hopefully telling me he has more of a chance of being lit up than being lights out. That, combined with Colorado's declining offensive production lately is what landed me on Arizona in this one.

2 units each

Wouldn't call either one of these gems POD material....but I'm basically looking for the split and to pick up a little change, as every little bit helps when you're down like 68 units, LOL. With that being said, they will probably both lose :puke:

Stifler's Mom
07-07-2006, 11:16 PM
I can't help but wonder why a guy (Morris) can be solid for so long, and then as soon as I jump on him, he sucks monkey shit....

Kinda makes me feel like I really am jinxed, lol

Ramirez for the Braves also falls into the same category for me tonight.

The reverse also holds true often for me too. Tonight for example. Wright for NYY has had a pretty poor overall season, and was lucky to even record a single out in his last start vs NYM, and then tonight I get on the Rays wagon and he comes out looking like a world beater and shuts out the Rays for 6 innings. Not that I expected Seo to do as well as he did either, but it didn't result in a win for me, so it's really of no consequence. He could have given up 1 or 100 and it wouldn't have changed the result for me.

I'm surprised Lima didn't throw a perfect game tonight, LOL. It would have fit the pattern....

Getting the 2 big dogs helped alot tonight though. Both of those lines were made on past reputation and not present play, and the wrong team was favored in both of those games. Luckily those did work out.

I can't believe both KC and Pittsburgh are mid sized dogs again tomorrow, especially KC. 14-6 in their last 20 games, scoring runs out the ass, and they're a +140ish dog against an average pitcher in Ted Lilly and the suddenly non-existant Toronto offense again? They should be favored there in the -120 range or so. With all these wins though, I'm just sorta getting worried about the wheels coming off the ol' KC bandwagon. Might have to jump off soon....sorta like knowing when to get up from the blackjack table and walk away while you're ahead, LOL

BoilerBacker
07-08-2006, 12:07 AM
Originally posted by Stifler's Mom


I can't believe both KC and Pittsburgh are mid sized dogs again tomorrow, especially KC. 14-6 in their last 20 games, scoring runs out the ass, and they're a +140ish dog against an average pitcher in Ted Lilly and the suddenly non-existant Toronto offense again? They should be favored there in the -120 range or so. With all these wins though, I'm just sorta getting worried about the wheels coming off the ol' KC bandwagon. Might have to jump off soon....sorta like knowing when to get up from the blackjack table and walk away while you're ahead, LOL

Playing both....

KC still sucks but they are home....

Stifler's Mom
07-08-2006, 02:15 PM
I would venture to say KC would have a winning record and actually be in wild card contention if they were in the NL.

Avoiding being beaten up by the White Sox, Boston, Yankees, Detroit, etc, and replacing that with the Brewers, Pirates, Phillies, Flubs, etc would make one hell of a difference in anyone's record :thumbs:

They're every bit as good as just about any NL team IMO....unfortunately for them they're in the wrong league and wrong division at the wrong time, LOL