Question for you Tennis regulars...

[Stifler's Mom]

I was looking at Tennis matchups today....not that I know anything about Tennis, but I'm bored.

Anyway, at 2 separate books, I see R Nadal is a -2500 favorite to win his next match, and his opponent is just +650 at one of those (not a sponsor here at UC), and +800 at the other (bet365.com).

What the hell kind of odds are those?

I mean I can understand the Nadal guy being -2500 since he's won like 695 matches in a row on clay or whatever they're playing on (plus I would assume he's better than his opponent in the first place), but c'mon....at least give out a decent number to someone who wants to jump on the underdog, lol

At Pinnacle R Nadal is -1400, while his opponent is +1150, which certainly seems a bit more fair.

So my question is this....is it normal for tennis odds to have such little value on the underdog, especially when it's pretty obvious who is going to win? And if so, how do you guys make any money doing it?

Thanks :thumbs:

[Horatio]

this particular question.I tend to consider those matches"Off the Board" for me. I tend to make money in tennis in early round matches, and I tend to try to follow up and coming players that are breaking through (I did not bet on Vaidisova stupidly against Williams today, but she has been money for a long time. She is an example of what I like to be on early)
I have followed Nadal closely since well before his breakthrough last year at the French Open, so he was a perfect example of a relative unknown about to explode into greatness.Once there, though, they rapidly raise the line to unbettable heights.So you bet him on winning the entire tourney.
In truth,at the start of this tournament, there were only three truly likely ultimate winners: Nadal, Federer, or Nalbandian. Everyone else was very improbable. Nadal went off at -121 or something like that to win it all. Not a bad bet given his clay court dominance...
Tennis betting follows closer to form in majors as 5 sets for men really reduces the likelihood of the lesser player winning as opposed to 3 set mens matches. So you can make some cash early by just not going out on a limb and betting standard amounts on very likely winners, despite the odds that may reach -500 fo a favorite.
Ed plays a cautious underdog driven style, and he can tell you how he does it.I have taken some cues from him and incorporated them into my thinking.
Federer by the way is only at -325 or so against Nalbandian, but that is because he has a losing record (or they are even).To me, that may mean I finally get to bet ON federer at a reasonable price, whereas to Ed, it may be that Nalbo is the choice, as he is the dog and has a real real shot at the upset.
Any help? If not, Corey or Ed may be of better assistance.:thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

Thanks for the reply Horatio :thumbs:

Normally I'm a dog player (obviously) in the other sports, but when I look at sports I don't know as much about, I find myself looking at the faves for the most part, although I rarely actually place any wagers.

I played a few Nascar bets last year, and a few soccer bets, and actually did ok, but I've found normally I don't have enough time to be confident i'm making informed choices in anything other than MLB, NFL, NBA and NCAA foots and hoops. I even cut out NHL partway into the season because i felt it was making my basketball capping suffer.

ANYWAY....enough of my babbling. What I wanted to ask is this:

I If a Federer/Nadal final comes about, would do you (or anyone else that knows tennis) think would be the favorite, and who would probably have the best chance to win?

I know Nadal hasn't lost on Clay in forever, and Federer is pretty much the best in the world....so it would be an interesting match up, even to someone like myself who wouldn't be considered a huge tennis follower.

[rousea]

I would say Nadal would be the favorite, probably to the tune of -150 or so. However, the last time they met on clay, I believe they were both going off at -120.

In 2 of their 3 matches this year, I took Federer thinking he could beat Nadal on clay, especially with the even odds. Both times I lost. I learned my lesson the third time.

It will go at least 4 sets if not 5. Federer had a couple of match points the last time out, but I would take Nadal myself.

[Q-Unit]

if the odds are that much at disparity, is it best to shop around then for the best odds from the best books? a la NHL or baseball?

[coreyschucky]

Originally posted by Q-Unit
if the odds are that much at disparity, is it best to shop around then for the best odds from the best books? a la NHL or baseball?

Yes there are big odd disparities. For instance:

5Dimes:

Roger Federer -395
David Nalbandian +335

Pinnacle:

Roger Federer -377
David Nalbandian +347

Bet365:

Roger Federer -450
David Nalbandian +300

Olympic:

Roger Federer -400
David Nalbandian +320


In almost all cases the two best books when it comes to tennis is Pinnacle and 5Dimes. 5Dimes offers alot more things that Pinnacle doesn't like parlays and other types of tennis lines but generally speaking Pinnacle usually will have the better overall line.

[Q-Unit]

thanks corey! I read your post in the other forum and you got me convinced. I remember some of my first bets when I was in college was just blindly taking Sampras. LOL (this was when he was about to retire. but nevertheless he had some pretty good odds) and I think i made out OK when he won his last tourney at the US Open.

But other than that I am interested in taking tennis up again. I missed the boat on the French but will be lookin forward to the US Open here in a few months.

[coreyschucky]

Originally posted by Q-Unit
thanks corey! I read your post in the other forum and you got me convinced. I remember some of my first bets when I was in college was just blindly taking Sampras. LOL (this was when he was about to retire. but nevertheless he had some pretty good odds) and I think i made out OK when he won his last tourney at the US Open.

But other than that I am interested in taking tennis up again. I missed the boat on the French but will be lookin forward to the US Open here in a few months.

Wimbledon is just a few weeks away....LOL!!!!

Good Luck!!!!

[Q-Unit]

Originally posted by coreyschucky
Wimbledon is just a few weeks away....LOL!!!!

Good Luck!!!!

LOL! thats like me forgetting the Super Bowl was a few weeks away and I started capping the Pro Bowl.

LMAO