The War Dogs
05-28-2006, 11:18 AM
Interesting that Phoenix point guard Steve Nash and two-time NBA MVP now plays for a team that mirrors his Mavericks of old. They can outscore people to win, but yet play no defense, and in crunch time, defense does win big games and conference titles. Although Dallas did not play much defense against the Spurs, head coach Avery Johnson has done a nice job with the defense of Dallas during the regular season, allowing 93 points per game, as opposed to the season average of the Suns defense. allowing 103 ppg. Nash now faces the same fate as he did with all those years in Dallas, a high-scoring team, only about six players deep, with no dominant frontcourt, and a coach who stresses offense and not defense.
Why Dallas in this series? A big reason is depth and speed with an emerging Jason Terry up top, a decent frontcourt, role players in Keith Van Horn and Devin Harris and all-world Dirk Nowitzki leading the charge. Add in bench players Jerry Stackhouse and others - all talented and all knowing the system, which is well-coached - and you simply have a team with more looks, weapons and a better defensive mindset than the Suns. The fact the Mavs won two games in San Antonio in the playoffs is impressive, and they are 38-8 at home this season and 30-17 on the road, with convincing playoff wins both in Memphis (ranked the #1 defensive team in the NBA this year), and then bagging San Antonio at home to take the series. Dallas simply has too much momentum and game for the Suns to shut down, unless the team falls apart, which I do not see happening.
The prop bet for the series here is the Mavs all the way. Oddsmakers were slow to post a line, but I can assure you it's worth betting. You will not be getting them at +365 to win the West like I did when the playoffs started, but assure Dallas is the better overall team and has many factors in its favor heading into this series. Do not forget the fatigue factor either, as the Mavs swept their first-round opponent in four games, whereas Phoenix has struggled to get wins in both their series against lesser teams. Look for Nash to wish he was back with his former buddies much like Mike Finley, who played for the Spurs this year and now is missing all the fun.
The Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks have all found a way to win both at home and on the road. All have dealt with fatigue and rest. All have been properly motivated. All are definitely contenders for the NBA title at this point. However, one key bet factor carried over from each of the first two rounds that will still be in play until the very end is team chemistry.
Chemistry: Since it's been mentioned before in my past two articles, I won't go into too much detail on this factor. The Heat proved in Game 1 against the Pistons how far they have come as a team since knocking off the Chicago Bulls 4-2 in the first round. Miami head coach Pat Riley's move to shake up the team in the offseason with the biggest trade in NBA history suddenly looks brilliant, bringing Antoine Walker in as a valuable third scorer alongside Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade with role players James Posey and Jason Williams. Point guard Gary Payton also was a nice addition, a hungry veteran gunning for one last shot at a championship. Riley though is the glue bringing these pieces together, making them believe as a team. He took over back on December 13th, relieving former coach Stan Van Gundy, who took the Heat one win from the NBA Finals last year. Will Riley be the difference in getting Miami past Detroit? That brings us to the next bet factor.
Coaching: Riley felt he could be the difference, as did Shaq, who was very critical of Van Gundy following last year's loss to the Pistons. Ironically, Detroit's offseason coaching change also is becoming an issue after the team struggled to put away the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round and fell at home to the Heat in the series opener of the Eastern Conference Finals. Flip Saunders looked to be a great replacement for the departed Larry Brown, leading the Pistons to the most wins in franchise history during the regular season at 64-18. But Saunders did not get his former team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, out of the first round of the playoffs until 2004, his eighth straight attempt. The Timberwolves had the top seed in the Western Conference that year but lost in the Western Conference Finals to the Los Angeles Lakers, who went on to lose to Brown and Detroit 4-1 in the NBA Finals. We will find out just how good of a coach Saunders really is over the next week.
In the Western Conference, Avery Johnson of the Mavs and Mike D'Antoni of the Suns have both done an outstanding job in leading their respective teams to the Conference Finals. D'Antoni in particular should be commended for getting both the Lakers and Clippers to run with Phoenix. Whether he will get Johnson's Dallas team to follow suit remains to be seen, as the Mavs are essentially the Suns from a few years ago, only much better defensively. Johnson took former coach Don Nelson's run-and-gun team and taught the players discipline, something viewed as mandatory in order to take the next step and get to the NBA Finals. He also made great adjustments against the defending NBA champion San Antonio Spurs in the previous round, finally getting Dallas over the hump and past its biggest nemesis. Tempo will be the story of this series against Phoenix. The Mavs can run with the Suns, but that might not be in their best interest because of the third factor.
Depth: Phoenix is the best conditioned team in the league and has backed that up by going the distance in the first two rounds, blowing out both LA teams in the clinching Game 7s at home. Nobody wants to let the Suns dictate the tempo and turn games into a track meet because they simply can't be beaten under those circumstances. Seven players scored in double figures for Phoenix in Game 7 against the Clippers, with Tim Thomas turning out to be the top late-season signing of any team. Leandro Barbosa has also been able to spell two-time MVP Steve Nash at the point, helping him save his energy for when the Suns need him the most.
Phoenix and Detroit are the two teams with the most balance that are least dependent on any one or two players to carry them. Dallas needs Dirk Nowitzki to come up big every game. Miami is not the same without Wade playing well, proven by the team's demise in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. But the Mavs and Heat are both deeper and get better contributions from their reserves than their opponents, which is why they've made it this far. That factor may ultimately lead each team to their first-ever NBA Finals.
Meetings: 2005-2006
11/01 - Dallas, 111-108 2ot (at Pho)
12/14 - Dallas, 102-96 (at Dal)
03/05 - Phoenix, 115-107 (at Dal)
04/13 - Phoenix, 117-104 (at Pho)
Meetings: 2004-2005
11/16 - Phoenix, 107-101 (at Dal)
02/17 - Dallas, 119-113 (at Pho)
02/26 - Phoenix, 124-123 (at Dal)
Meetings: 2003-2004
11/26 - Phoenix, 121-90 (at Pho)
03/08 - Dallas, 103-90 (at Dal)
03/13 - Dallas, 113-90 (at Pho)
04/03 - Dallas, 124-103 (at Dal)
Meetings: 2002-2003
11/02 - Dallas, 97-83 (at Dal)
01/17 - Phoenix, 111-106 (at Pho)
03/22 - Dallas, 102-95 (at Dal)
04/09 - Phoenix, 112-89 (at Pho)
Why Dallas in this series? A big reason is depth and speed with an emerging Jason Terry up top, a decent frontcourt, role players in Keith Van Horn and Devin Harris and all-world Dirk Nowitzki leading the charge. Add in bench players Jerry Stackhouse and others - all talented and all knowing the system, which is well-coached - and you simply have a team with more looks, weapons and a better defensive mindset than the Suns. The fact the Mavs won two games in San Antonio in the playoffs is impressive, and they are 38-8 at home this season and 30-17 on the road, with convincing playoff wins both in Memphis (ranked the #1 defensive team in the NBA this year), and then bagging San Antonio at home to take the series. Dallas simply has too much momentum and game for the Suns to shut down, unless the team falls apart, which I do not see happening.
The prop bet for the series here is the Mavs all the way. Oddsmakers were slow to post a line, but I can assure you it's worth betting. You will not be getting them at +365 to win the West like I did when the playoffs started, but assure Dallas is the better overall team and has many factors in its favor heading into this series. Do not forget the fatigue factor either, as the Mavs swept their first-round opponent in four games, whereas Phoenix has struggled to get wins in both their series against lesser teams. Look for Nash to wish he was back with his former buddies much like Mike Finley, who played for the Spurs this year and now is missing all the fun.
The Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks have all found a way to win both at home and on the road. All have dealt with fatigue and rest. All have been properly motivated. All are definitely contenders for the NBA title at this point. However, one key bet factor carried over from each of the first two rounds that will still be in play until the very end is team chemistry.
Chemistry: Since it's been mentioned before in my past two articles, I won't go into too much detail on this factor. The Heat proved in Game 1 against the Pistons how far they have come as a team since knocking off the Chicago Bulls 4-2 in the first round. Miami head coach Pat Riley's move to shake up the team in the offseason with the biggest trade in NBA history suddenly looks brilliant, bringing Antoine Walker in as a valuable third scorer alongside Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade with role players James Posey and Jason Williams. Point guard Gary Payton also was a nice addition, a hungry veteran gunning for one last shot at a championship. Riley though is the glue bringing these pieces together, making them believe as a team. He took over back on December 13th, relieving former coach Stan Van Gundy, who took the Heat one win from the NBA Finals last year. Will Riley be the difference in getting Miami past Detroit? That brings us to the next bet factor.
Coaching: Riley felt he could be the difference, as did Shaq, who was very critical of Van Gundy following last year's loss to the Pistons. Ironically, Detroit's offseason coaching change also is becoming an issue after the team struggled to put away the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round and fell at home to the Heat in the series opener of the Eastern Conference Finals. Flip Saunders looked to be a great replacement for the departed Larry Brown, leading the Pistons to the most wins in franchise history during the regular season at 64-18. But Saunders did not get his former team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, out of the first round of the playoffs until 2004, his eighth straight attempt. The Timberwolves had the top seed in the Western Conference that year but lost in the Western Conference Finals to the Los Angeles Lakers, who went on to lose to Brown and Detroit 4-1 in the NBA Finals. We will find out just how good of a coach Saunders really is over the next week.
In the Western Conference, Avery Johnson of the Mavs and Mike D'Antoni of the Suns have both done an outstanding job in leading their respective teams to the Conference Finals. D'Antoni in particular should be commended for getting both the Lakers and Clippers to run with Phoenix. Whether he will get Johnson's Dallas team to follow suit remains to be seen, as the Mavs are essentially the Suns from a few years ago, only much better defensively. Johnson took former coach Don Nelson's run-and-gun team and taught the players discipline, something viewed as mandatory in order to take the next step and get to the NBA Finals. He also made great adjustments against the defending NBA champion San Antonio Spurs in the previous round, finally getting Dallas over the hump and past its biggest nemesis. Tempo will be the story of this series against Phoenix. The Mavs can run with the Suns, but that might not be in their best interest because of the third factor.
Depth: Phoenix is the best conditioned team in the league and has backed that up by going the distance in the first two rounds, blowing out both LA teams in the clinching Game 7s at home. Nobody wants to let the Suns dictate the tempo and turn games into a track meet because they simply can't be beaten under those circumstances. Seven players scored in double figures for Phoenix in Game 7 against the Clippers, with Tim Thomas turning out to be the top late-season signing of any team. Leandro Barbosa has also been able to spell two-time MVP Steve Nash at the point, helping him save his energy for when the Suns need him the most.
Phoenix and Detroit are the two teams with the most balance that are least dependent on any one or two players to carry them. Dallas needs Dirk Nowitzki to come up big every game. Miami is not the same without Wade playing well, proven by the team's demise in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. But the Mavs and Heat are both deeper and get better contributions from their reserves than their opponents, which is why they've made it this far. That factor may ultimately lead each team to their first-ever NBA Finals.
Meetings: 2005-2006
11/01 - Dallas, 111-108 2ot (at Pho)
12/14 - Dallas, 102-96 (at Dal)
03/05 - Phoenix, 115-107 (at Dal)
04/13 - Phoenix, 117-104 (at Pho)
Meetings: 2004-2005
11/16 - Phoenix, 107-101 (at Dal)
02/17 - Dallas, 119-113 (at Pho)
02/26 - Phoenix, 124-123 (at Dal)
Meetings: 2003-2004
11/26 - Phoenix, 121-90 (at Pho)
03/08 - Dallas, 103-90 (at Dal)
03/13 - Dallas, 113-90 (at Pho)
04/03 - Dallas, 124-103 (at Dal)
Meetings: 2002-2003
11/02 - Dallas, 97-83 (at Dal)
01/17 - Phoenix, 111-106 (at Pho)
03/22 - Dallas, 102-95 (at Dal)
04/09 - Phoenix, 112-89 (at Pho)