Johnny Racetracks
05-20-2006, 07:24 AM
Since my low risk exacta plays in the Ky Derby turned a decent profit I'll try to make a few bucks on the Preakness, though this will be a tougher race to make money on since it features a large favorite that figures to run well.
Normally a horse that will be bet so heavily in the win pool and proportionally much less in the place pool is an automatic bet to place, assuming the field has at least 7 horses - this one has 9. The problem with betting place in this race and the reason it will likely pay less than $3.00 (1-2 odds) is the fact that we have a secondary group of favorites that will take a lot of place money. Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, and to a lesser degree Like Now will all take much more place money than the remaining five runners. Obviously if one of those remaining five longshots finishes in the top two spots the place payout on Barbaro will go up, you won't get $4.00 but you'll get more than $2.40. But I don't see that happening because those five are simply in over their head.
Betting a favorite to place might seem like a boring bet but keep in mind that Smarty Jones paid more to place in the Belmont Stakes than he would have paid to win--which he did not of course. Small angles like this can mean the difference between winning and losing in the long run. The 7 % rebate Pinnacle gives you is even more important when taking low prices since you are likely putting more money in play with the generally lower risk of losing that comes with low odds. And the more money you play the faster the rebate builds up. Now while I don't recommend betting Barbaro to place in the Preakness, I do recommend doing so in the Belmont Stakes if he's alive for the Triple Crown.
Normally a horse that will be bet so heavily in the win pool and proportionally much less in the place pool is an automatic bet to place, assuming the field has at least 7 horses - this one has 9. The problem with betting place in this race and the reason it will likely pay less than $3.00 (1-2 odds) is the fact that we have a secondary group of favorites that will take a lot of place money. Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, and to a lesser degree Like Now will all take much more place money than the remaining five runners. Obviously if one of those remaining five longshots finishes in the top two spots the place payout on Barbaro will go up, you won't get $4.00 but you'll get more than $2.40. But I don't see that happening because those five are simply in over their head.
Betting a favorite to place might seem like a boring bet but keep in mind that Smarty Jones paid more to place in the Belmont Stakes than he would have paid to win--which he did not of course. Small angles like this can mean the difference between winning and losing in the long run. The 7 % rebate Pinnacle gives you is even more important when taking low prices since you are likely putting more money in play with the generally lower risk of losing that comes with low odds. And the more money you play the faster the rebate builds up. Now while I don't recommend betting Barbaro to place in the Preakness, I do recommend doing so in the Belmont Stakes if he's alive for the Triple Crown.