Johnny Racetracks
05-04-2006, 05:58 PM
First of all one word comes to mind in a 20-horse field: CHAOS. Don't take a short price on any horse, especially this year when there are a half dozen or so good horses but zero great horses. Of course the winner of this race will likely be called great, it kind of goes with the territory.
I'll post my final picks sometime on Friday but I'm leaning toward completely throwing out the favorite, Brother Derek, and not using the 2nd favorite, Lawyer Ron, much either.
My top 5 right now:
1. Sweetnorthernsaint
2. Point Determined
3. Barbaro
4. A.P. Warrior
5. Cause To Believe
I might play the race like this:
group A = Sweetnorthernsaint & Point Determined & Barbaro & A.P. Warrior
group B = Cause To Believe & Bob And John & Lawyer Ron & Keyed Entry & Showing Up & Deputy Glitters & Jazil & Sharp Humor & Steppenwolfer & Bluegrass Cat
2 unit Exacta box of all 4 horses in group A, cost = 24 units
1 unit Exacta wheel with group A horses in the win spot over group B horses in the place spot, cost = 40 units
if 1 unit is equal to $1, then cost is $64
for an economy plan I would exclude Bluegrass Cat, Steppenwolfer, Jazil, Deputy Glitters, Sharp Humor; then instead of 40 units the ticket costs 20 units.
Recent $1 exacta payoffs for the Ky Derby, yes $1 prices:
2005: $4,907.40 (crazy race, both big longshots)
2004: $32.60 (favorites finished 1st and 2nd)
2003: $48.50 (big favorite finished 2nd)
2002: $650.40 (2 non-huge longshots)
2001: $614.50 (10-1 over pretty big longshot)
If any of the exactas I gave out hits it should fall most closely in line with 2001 at best, or about $150 at worst (unless Lawyer Ron runs 2nd because he will take a lot of money), of course some are played for 2 units which would be $300.
Prices are hard to guess, for instance if Barbaro wins and Sweetnorthernsaint finishes 2nd the $1 exacta might only pay $70, you never know.
If A.P. Warrior wins and Cause To Believe runs 2nd the $1 exacta might pay $1,000.
I have serious doubts about whether Brother Derek can relax with dirt being kicked in his face and then accelerate down the stretch to hit the board. With the low price any tickets will pay with him getting in the money I'm willing to take my chances betting against him.
I'll post my final picks sometime on Friday but I'm leaning toward completely throwing out the favorite, Brother Derek, and not using the 2nd favorite, Lawyer Ron, much either.
My top 5 right now:
1. Sweetnorthernsaint
2. Point Determined
3. Barbaro
4. A.P. Warrior
5. Cause To Believe
I might play the race like this:
group A = Sweetnorthernsaint & Point Determined & Barbaro & A.P. Warrior
group B = Cause To Believe & Bob And John & Lawyer Ron & Keyed Entry & Showing Up & Deputy Glitters & Jazil & Sharp Humor & Steppenwolfer & Bluegrass Cat
2 unit Exacta box of all 4 horses in group A, cost = 24 units
1 unit Exacta wheel with group A horses in the win spot over group B horses in the place spot, cost = 40 units
if 1 unit is equal to $1, then cost is $64
for an economy plan I would exclude Bluegrass Cat, Steppenwolfer, Jazil, Deputy Glitters, Sharp Humor; then instead of 40 units the ticket costs 20 units.
Recent $1 exacta payoffs for the Ky Derby, yes $1 prices:
2005: $4,907.40 (crazy race, both big longshots)
2004: $32.60 (favorites finished 1st and 2nd)
2003: $48.50 (big favorite finished 2nd)
2002: $650.40 (2 non-huge longshots)
2001: $614.50 (10-1 over pretty big longshot)
If any of the exactas I gave out hits it should fall most closely in line with 2001 at best, or about $150 at worst (unless Lawyer Ron runs 2nd because he will take a lot of money), of course some are played for 2 units which would be $300.
Prices are hard to guess, for instance if Barbaro wins and Sweetnorthernsaint finishes 2nd the $1 exacta might only pay $70, you never know.
If A.P. Warrior wins and Cause To Believe runs 2nd the $1 exacta might pay $1,000.
I have serious doubts about whether Brother Derek can relax with dirt being kicked in his face and then accelerate down the stretch to hit the board. With the low price any tickets will pay with him getting in the money I'm willing to take my chances betting against him.