No Limit Holdem.............

[beermantm]

Blank..............

Good Luck with your poker indeavors and thanks for reading.

[beermantm]

Blank..............

Good Luck with your poker indeavors and thanks for reading.

[beermantm]

Blank..............

Good Luck with your poker indeavors and thanks for reading.

[beancounter]

this is an awesome thread, thanks beerman


one question I have is about % chance of winning. if I have 5, 4 suited, and I think my buddy has a big pair, how to I figure out my % to win? to be able to make the correct bet size? I know it is a matter of the # of cards that will help me, but is there chart i can study or quick formula i can do in my head the table to help me figure it out in a short amount of time?

[beermantm]

Originally posted by beancounter
this is an awesome thread, thanks beerman


one question I have is about % chance of winning. if I have 5, 4 suited, and I think my buddy has a big pair, how to I figure out my % to win? to be able to make the correct bet size? I know it is a matter of the # of cards that will help me, but is there chart i can study or quick formula i can do in my head the table to help me figure it out in a short amount of time?

Yes and No........ In your example there is not enough information for me to decide to make a bet or to check. If you are in weak or early position and you are on a four flush with 4 5 suited up against a big pair you have to figure your hand strength as pretty weak. Even if you have 9 outs left you are trying to see the next card before you commit any money to the pot. In this case we turn to the 4-2 rule. With two cards to come you would calculate your outs and multiply it by 4.

9*4=36%

However there is a problem doing this. If you are not calling an all in or committing most of your stack you are only paying for one card so you would multiply by 2 instead of the 4.

9*2=18%

We go back to our chart and this is where we fall.......
(10-20% check or bet in late position)
If it's checked to you in late position it is worth a bet. If you are in early position it's better to try to get a free card. If you are likely up against a big pair then you want him to bet into you so you can figure your odds on a profitable call or a fold.

Please look at the attached chart to help you out.

[beermantm]

lllllllllll

[beermantm]

THIS THREAD WILL SELF DESTRUCT IN TWO DAYS!!!!!!

better copy it.

:gulp:

[BillyBarooooooo]

Originally posted by beermantm
THIS THREAD WILL SELF DESTRUCT IN TWO DAYS!!!!!!

better copy it.

:gulp:

LMAO I HAVE ODDS THAT YOU DO BEFORE THE THREAD DOES!!!!:laugh:


Thanks for your help the other day! The hedge worked out great! and I turned a profit! Not to metion the teaser hit too!

Thanks

BB

[Chris]

Raise 1X's
Raise 2X's


these bets are pointless unless you have a small pocket pair out of postion IMO because really if they just call you still dont have much of a clue where you are at.

[beermantm]

Raise 1X's
Raise 2X's


these bets are pointless unless you have a small pocket pair out of postion IMO because really if they just call you still dont have much of a clue where you are at.


Well you are somewhat right and very wrong. The very reason you make the raises is to take the lead in the hand. If you are openly trying to define your hand you become very readable to others but since you will take the lead in every hand and your raises are random spread over 4 different raise sizes people will hesitatate even calling a 1bb raise. Chances are also that if they will call the 1bb they will call a two or 3 bb also. The idea is to never broadcast what you have but just to take the lead in the hand. To play tight doesn't mean you have to play certain cards. If your VPIP is less than 17% you could be raiseing 26 offsuit or 72 all day and the math would still rate you as Tight. Then if you bet after the flop or raise even if it's 1 bet more you will still show a high agression level.

The exact reason I say 4 different levels and pretty much randomly is to keep your oppenents out of your head. If your on the random 4x's the BB raise in early position with 66 you are in great shape. You have bluffing potential and if rags fall and you catch your set you might wipe someone out who caught a rag or two pair by calling your large raise with raggy cards because he will assume you missed the board. On the other hand if you raise 4x's the BB every time you have a big hand in early position you might never get paid off on it because everyone will know what the raise means and lay it down to you. But if your on a random raise basis and never limp into hands they basically have no idea what you are raising so 1 2 or 3 times the BB gives little information as to what you hold. The AA or KK has a better chance to cash in these situations because your opponents are always assumming they are behind when they go up against you and they are trying to get you to pay them off when they make thier miracle happen.

Of course this is cash games........ not tourneys. Some of this is effective for tourney play but tourneys you can use leverage and in cash there is no leverage.

[beermantm]

Originally posted by BillyBarooooooo
LMAO I HAVE ODDS THAT YOU DO BEFORE THE THREAD DOES!!!!:laugh:


Thanks for your help the other day! The hedge worked out great! and I turned a profit! Not to metion the teaser hit too!

Thanks

BB

Cool then you got the max payout for the hedge!! Nice work!! Impressive picking!!

:gulp:

[Chris]

well that comment was from a tourney stand point.

[beermantm]

Originally posted by Chris
well that comment was from a tourney stand point.

This weeks win at UB was 7th place paying $700+ for $109..........


:gulp:

[beermantm]

This weeks win at UB..........

[beermantm]

Here is some limit stats but I didn't log alot of hands this month as I no longer feel the need to search deeply into my game but the six max tables for $1/2 are money machines. My stats say 5.86bb/100 but if I had all my hands logged I can tell you I've been pulling a hundred a day without trying and the BB's would be higher. This is about $14 an hour with one table only!!!!

[Chris]

going to get back in the swing of things very soon in regards to poker. be waching for some post my freind:thumbs:

[beermantm]

Originally posted by Chris
going to get back in the swing of things very soon in regards to poker. be waching for some post my freind:thumbs:

I will be extremely intrested!!

:gulp:

[Chris]

do you play at fulltilt at all? IMHO best software on the net.

[beermantm]

Originally posted by Chris
do you play at fulltilt at all? IMHO best software on the net.

I haven't played there in some time now. I play at PS, UB, PR, Party, and have accounts at Titan, all the prima's. I have yet to make a new account at Paradise as I really didn't like the software much. I think Fulltilt has to shore up thier card dispersement a bit. Reminds me of the party software before their major update.

[FlyersFan]

beer- passed your thread along to a buddy who plays a lot of poker and does real well in satellites and cash games (mostly in person)....he said it was good stuff, but that it was basically know your odds....but that you aren't factoring luck into the equation which is a big part of cards...he said good stuff though...:thumbs:

[beermantm]

beer- passed your thread along to a buddy who plays a lot of poker and does real well in satellites and cash games (mostly in person)....he said it was good stuff, but that it was basically know your odds....but that you aren't factoring luck into the equation which is a big part of cards...he said good stuff though...

Ahhhhh........... This is a betting system to limit liability and to maximize profit. Luck is the very reason for the system. Also there is much much more I have to do to really drive the system home. It's called the Up or Out system that is mixed with the betting system. This will determine if in each situation it is more profitable to bring the betting into an upward betting motion in order to end the hand before showdown or if it is more profitable to bring the hand to the next card thus costing the player less to get to showdown or improving. The up and out system will be more complex to explain but it's something I have been thinking about. Odds are important I agree but at this point I would put my play up against anyones. I would put my system up against anyones. I'm that confident that it's the stuff the pros will never tell you in thier books about how to play.

It's funny how I stumbled onto a money management system for sports and then later had it confirmed by reading books written by pro sports bettors. Now for three years I've been racking my brain on poker losing a good amount of cash testing theories. Reading books, making poker profiles for computer programs. I actually had to make a betting system that would make money in an actual cash game with only rules and no memory of what happened on the last street.(Yes I helped develope a profitable Bot they are out there now!!) I was the only one to make this happen. Once my work got out though people stole the work and improved on it. (or so they say) which put my poker profile making days to rest. I turned my attension to NL and combined the money management lessons I know from sports into a manageable system for betting at the NL tables. I put the theory to test for 1 day and turned $200 into over $4K. At the peak of that day I was at arround $5300. Since I have been using this system for touneys and cash games. I don't just beat the competition I crush them!! They never know where I'm comming from and the system itself used correctly is self adjusting to the enviroment. There is much more to it then what I wrote here but trust me with a full explaination you would understand the absolute power. I agree though the betting system itself is great stuff!!
Thanks Flyers!!

I love to share things with others.........but I can't stand being taken advantage of.