Friday Discussion

[Half-Man Half-Amazin]

First time starting the discussion lol. In any case hope you guys keep the winning days going. For the most part we have taken each others advice/picks/suggestions and cashed in... Lets continue the trend...

Games that come to mind are:

Det -1 1/2 +170

Dont like playing -1 1/2 but the value is great considering Det is at home against a bad Chi team..

pit/NYI und 7 -130

Worst case scenario a 4-3, 5-2 game IMO

also Pit +1 1/2 -155

couple more in mind but those are the ones that come to mind and Carolina is a good play as well. Any thoughts on these??

[Angelus]

Where are you getting Detroit -1.5 +170?? I think you mean -170...the best I can get is -161. Way too much juice for a PL like that...

Pittsburgh +195 might be worth a shot. I like Columbus -105...they're better than the Blues. Much better. Other than that...I really dont' see much. I like the Canucks to win, but -191 is too high. Dallas/Anaheim is pretty much a coin flip.

[Drigger]

Alright, I haven't taken a look at the games... but a crazy stat here.

Goalies that are in the playoff race. Playoff experience in games.

Martin Brodeur - 144
Auld - 2?!??!
Graham - 2
Gerber - 0
Aubin - 0
Loungo - 0
Miller - 0
Nitty - 0
Emery - 0
Lundqvist - 0
Huet - 0
Lehtonen - 0

A lot of new comers this year! Just some food for thought!
Discuss some play later, when I take a look at them! I probably missed some... I'll take a look when they put the stat on TV again.

[FlyersFan]

Once again, looks like i may be lone wolf on my game...lol.....CAR is a great play tomorrow. FLA hasn't beaten a playoff team on the road in a month.....they are playing the last game of a mini road trip and CAR has owned them at home...plus how can you ignore Gerber being 14-1 L15 since DEC 13 at HOME?....feel in this one exactly like i did about Ottawa last night.....Stumpel is most likely out for FLA, as well and it has been the Stumpel, Roberts, Jokinnen line doing the damage......Gerber will be in net tomorrow....CAR is 5-2 this year vs. FLA and 3-0 at home......

play it if you want, don't if you don't.....

ANA is the only other play that jumps out at me....NYI have all been going under 7 but the PIT games have all been going way over 7 and the last one played was 7, so i would say that is a stay away game.....you have no way of knowing which of those variables will be the X factor....it is a guess pretty much if you play it......just as many arguments for the over as the under which means it isn't a good play....IMO...

GL to everyone!

[Angelus]

I don't mind the Carolina play. I just don't know if I want to lay -180 on a team that's lost 3 of 5...with those 3 being to Toronto and Washington (twice).

[FlyersFan]

Gerber is 14-1 at home......14-1 at home L15....14-1 at home L15...lol.....Ward was in net for WAS and the CAR had 50 SOG that night....Ward gave up 5 goals on 24 shots....and as far as the other 2....TOR was the last game of a 5 game road trip and 10 road games in 11 games....and WAS was the first home game back after the road trip....2 worst spots for teams are those 2 they lost.......and TOR has now beaten PHI and NJD on the road, as well....same thing with OTT last night...everyone kept finding reasons not to play them......i know a lot of people don't like juice or favorites...but i do very well with them because i am cautious with the ones i pick...you don't see me betting a lot of -240's and -180's.......when i do, it is with good reason....and home favorites that are involved in the playoff hunt win at a very high rate at thsi time of the year......CAR needs a win to wrap up the division and if they aren't careful, they will not only not catch Ottawa, but may get caught by the NYR or PHI....just my 2 cents....GL!

and angelus- this is a perfect example of a game to be played at 5dimes if you don't like juice...you can probably get this one tomorrow at -1 for about -110 to -125...somewhere in there....you would just come away with a push if they win by 1.....

[Angelus]

Well, I think you've sold me. I'll probably give it a go @ -180.

[Angelus]

Interesting trend over the last 3 days:

The Under has cashed in 10 games. The Over has cashed in 4.

[FlyersFan]

Originally posted by Angelus
Interesting trend over the last 3 days:

The Under has cashed in 10 games. The Over has cashed in 4.

i think that this will be the norm over the last couple weeks....playoff hockey is basically what most teams are playing...either trying to get in or move up in the playoffs.....little less wide open than you might have seen 2 months ago.....some of these teams are seeing each other for the 7th, 8th, 2400th times and there is some familiarity now with what a team is going to do on the PP, how certain lines play....i mean look at the ducks and stars playing for the 3rd time in about a week......you think they don't have each other figured out by now...lol....and i think the goaltending gets better and more "playoff quality"......good stat to toss up....:thumbs:

[Naderhodroj44]

Yeah I have noticed that too about the over and under trend. The under certaintly have taken force these last 3 days. I expect the same for the remainder of the season. Tommorow's game are going to be no different. Here are some under games to consider:

Min vs van (under 5.5), watched last game, boring as it gets, 3-1

Dallas vs Anaheim (under 5.5), goalies too strong in this game, game will stay close


Colorado vs Calgary (under 5.5), hard one because of colarodo's offence but I really see a 3-0 or 3-1 games here.

****I see at leat 2 of these game making the under if not all of them.
Worst case sceneraio , 2/3 correct, play them individually you'll be fine.

[Naderhodroj44]

Hey FF, your record speaks for itself. I love the way you break down these games. You sold me on Carolina also. I played Ottawa today and I was astonished that none of my buddies here in Vancouver wanted to play Ottawa, they all went for rangers. I tried convincing them but to no avail.

Anyhow, when a team of Carolina's calibre loses like that against Washington team, it will do wonders. Sometimes you need to get ass kicked really hard from a bad team to start regaining focus and work ethic. They will win this game, agree 100%. So lets hit it.

[Drigger]

Sorry FF...

I actually like Florida +1.5 tomorrow! But its not one of the games I am going to play. I am probably going to hit the Canucks again or maybe I should stick to the +1.5 Minni. I don't know yet... I think it should be another boring tight 1 goal game. I also like NYI over Pitts.

I don't like much of the other games.

Calgary / Colarado... leaning towards the over but ML it can really go either way. How about OVERTIME = YES! LOL

Jackets > St.Louis????!!
St.Louis has lost what??! 8 straight!

But I think I will just stick with NYI and Vancouver tomorrow

GL!

[David Vincent]

Best under of the night is Van/Minn. Checking the stats, at least the last 5 games between these teams, in Vancouver were under the total. Just my opinion.

[David Vincent]

Please somebody correct me if I'm wrong, There is only 7 games tonight, right? My Books Grand Salami is set at 50 goals ,thats an average of over 7 per game.

[Miklos]

Originally posted by David Vincent
Please somebody correct me if I'm wrong, There is only 7 games tonight, right? My Books Grand Salami is set at 50 goals ,thats an average of over 7 per game.


7 games showing at Don Best (March 31/06) and the following;

GRAND SALAMI
(All games must go official time)
Time Gm. # Open Stardu Mirage CRIS Olympc CRISPL

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3/31 91 AWAY GOALS +275 +275 +275
4:05p 92 HOME GOALS -325 -325 -325 -5-15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3/31 93 OVER GOALS
4:05p 94 UNDER GOALS 42½


What book did you find that number 50 at??

[David Vincent]

Sports Interaction. So naturally I jumped all over it. But I just got an E-mail telling me they voided all of my bets because their line was wrong. I don't think they should be allowed to do that once the bet has been placed. A couple of months ago they had a similar mistake when they had the Canes at +1.5 and the M/L at the same value, They didn't void my bets then, but they did correct their error shortly afterward.

[Angelus]

Originally posted by David Vincent
Sports Interaction. So naturally I jumped all over it. But I just got an E-mail telling me they voided all of my bets because their line was wrong. I don't think they should be allowed to do that once the bet has been placed. A couple of months ago they had a similar mistake when they had the Canes at +1.5 and the M/L at the same value, They didn't void my bets then, but they did correct their error shortly afterward.

Mistakes are made. Obviously they aren't going to allow anyone to make a bet on an incorrect line. The other night Pinnacle had the Oilers -0.5 +175 against the Kings. Obviously this was meant to be -1.5. I put 4 units on it anyway...even though I knew it would be voided (just in case). Of course, it was voided....

[FlyersFan]

Originally posted by Naderhodroj44
Hey FF, your record speaks for itself. I love the way you break down these games. You sold me on Carolina also. I played Ottawa today and I was astonished that none of my buddies here in Vancouver wanted to play Ottawa, they all went for rangers. I tried convincing them but to no avail.

Anyhow, when a team of Carolina's calibre loses like that against Washington team, it will do wonders. Sometimes you need to get ass kicked really hard from a bad team to start regaining focus and work ethic. They will win this game, agree 100%. So lets hit it.

nader- THX!....looks like you and me on this one tonight....lets get it.....:thumbs:

[FlyersFan]

Want to get inside the heads of you guys that are involved in this NYI/PIT total....i just don't know how you can pick either the over or the under in this one.....just like my feel on the Nashville total yesterday.....one team has been playing 5-4 games and the other is playing 3-1 games...and the last matchup was 7......NYI have only played but maybe 2 games over 7 goals in their last like 10+ games and PIT hasn't had a game under 7 in 6 of their L7 i believe....really tough call, IMO.....GL! to those on it....:thumbs:

[flmmkrz]

first off good call on the sens yesterday ff.

on to todays thoughts...

wings hawks- not worth betting either way for me. Lean wings and the over 6.5

Pitt isles - I like Pitt tonight for my lean. Just has one of those feels to it. Isles know the playoffs for them are done and its not a team beeming with pride to begin with. I could see them coast the season away. U7

Canes flo - I like the panthers tonight. Panthers still have an outside shot at the playoffs and while I dont like the loss of stumpel think they have more to play for. Canes are the question mark tho, the 2 losses to the caps may wake them up for a game or they may still not care either way I wouldnt bet it. Another under here.

Columbus will likely be one of my plays today. Blues stink and lost drake as well. Columbus isnt a bad squad and come to play most nights. Have a nice talent edge over the blues.

Avs flames , like the flames. wont touch the total

Van and the under against the wild. Van playing team hockey just have too much skill for the wild.

Leaning dallas as well. Esp if Turco goes. Ducks were due for a let down like the sharks and I think its kickin in now.

[Angelus]

Originally posted by FlyersFan
Want to get inside the heads of you guys that are involved in this NYI/PIT total....i just don't know how you can pick either the over or the under in this one.....just like my feel on the Nashville total yesterday.....one team has been playing 5-4 games and the other is playing 3-1 games...and the last matchup was 7......NYI have only played but maybe 2 games over 7 goals in their last like 10+ games and PIT hasn't had a game under 7 in 6 of their L7 i believe....really tough call, IMO.....GL! to those on it....:thumbs:

I use a formula (mostly a weighted average) that takes into consideration certain things and spits out a number forecasting the result of the game. Over the last month, the record on this formula is over 50% (i won't get into specifics) and higher when it is significant (I consider significance to be greater than a difference of .5 when compared to the line total). My formula is giving me a 6.02 on the Islanders/Pens game (assuming Fleury & Dipietro start). In my book, the under is a good play and one I may add later.

[Dr. Peebody]

Originally posted by Angelus
I use a formula.......

this could be interesting....

i'm gonna be watching the pitt/ny score now, let us know how it does in the future.

[Drigger]

Originally posted by David Vincent
Sports Interaction. So naturally I jumped all over it. But I just got an E-mail telling me they voided all of my bets because their line was wrong. I don't think they should be allowed to do that once the bet has been placed. A couple of months ago they had a similar mistake when they had the Canes at +1.5 and the M/L at the same value, They didn't void my bets then, but they did correct their error shortly afterward.

This is exactly why they say...

We have the right to void any bets if the line is deemed offset. They say that to protect themselves in cases like this.

[Angelus]

Originally posted by Dr. Peebody
this could be interesting....

i'm gonna be watching the pitt/ny score now, let us know how it does in the future.

Will do. :thumbs:

Looks like Caron starts tonight. That throws my number out the window and I'm going to pass on both the total and Pitts +204.

[benrik]

I wish I had been around earlier today when Columbus was the underdog to St. Louis. Still, I like Columbus there.

Other than that, I dont like much until the later games. Tonight I'm liking Vancouver, Colorado and Dallas.

[Angelus]

I'm starting to look at Dallas. I can get them at +105. The Ducks are 1-4 against the Stars this year. Of course, three of those losses came a while ago when they were really a different team...