Looking for some help...

[prhof14]

First off I have been a long time follower of this site and am very thankful for all the capping support that I have picked up.

I could really use some advice on what to do on the following scenario. If Fla wins Sat over GM I will lock up my bracket and take home a cool $1000 for my $25 investment.... However if GM can pull the upset I am left with nothing. Would it be wise to make a play on GM +6 and hope for a close game where Fla wins by 5 or less or just let it ride???

Hope this is the right form for this sort of question. I could really use some advice on what to do.

[MRAB54]

Interesting situation you have there, wish I were in it :thumbs:

I guess by putting money down on GM +6 would be sort of an insurance that you at least win something with the added bonus of possibly hitting both. I guess it comes down to if you really think GM will cover the points or have a chance to win outright for that matter.

I bought points for Florida @ -4, I definately think the 6 number will be pretty close so it might be worth a shot. In my opinion I would probably put around 250 on GM and hope the line moves up to 6 1/2, I wouldn't think it would move back down at all. If you dont hit it, thats still 750 bucks!

If your at all scared GM is going to win outright I'd say might as well bet them , otherwise that is 1,000 bucks in your pocket. But I'd wait til you hear some other opinions, don't want to screw this up for you lol :cool:

GL!!!

[williwonka05]

I need LSU to win the tourney at 77:1 . I have about 17 dollars on them to win over 1100..

I'm laying something down on UCLA +2.5 for sure ..


A play on G Mason +6 wouldn't be a bad idea .... for you

[jimbosmmgl]

You are in a nice situation.........Personally I think that midnight strikes on G Mason vs Fla.........I like Fla in a pretty convincing win.
However, you are blessed with an opportunity to hedge to insure you will get something no matter what happens..........pretty substantial amount......your choices are to
1. stand pat (if you think Fla will most surely prevail, as I Do)
2. Hedge your bet with G Mason + the points(i'd wait to do this as I suspect that the line in this game will go up ....perhaps to Fla -7 or more). then the question is the amount? the max I would do here is 500 to win 454.........that assures you to win at least 500 with the possibility to win both 1000+454=1454
3. You could also hedge by betting G Mason on the moneyline (i'm not even sure what it is but it has to be at least 2.5/1....... here you could wager 150 to win like 375..........this assures you of at least a plus 375 if the unthinkable happens... A George Mason Win.
4. or a combination of taking the points and the money line w George Mason...............

personnally.....I like option 2, for one....I really like Fla in this matchup and two, this option affords the opportunity to walk away with the most cash............

hope this helps.............gl and out

[williwonka05]

Good Breakdown..

[SeanieKGB]

Ok, so you basically already have 1000 wrapped up, right? How about this, forget about hedging the bet and put more on FLA. Drop $300 on Florida minus the points. They win and cover you net $1300, they win and don't cover, you net $670, they lose, you lose $330, but it would make for a great rush!
There are a ton of scenarios you can choose from, the only thing you DO NOT want to do, is tie this into any other game, like a tease or parlay or A/R.
The way I see it is like this, UF has gotten you this far, a NCAA pool is a great win, I have already locked up 2 of the 3 pools I entered, and am currently tied for 3rd in the last pool, if UCLA beats LSU, I will win that pool too, if they lose then its off to the tie breaker, I have 72-65 in the championship game.
GM has been playing great ball, no doubt, but UConn has been barely surviving lately and its not like they were playing like a #1 seed, UNC had a bunch of Freshmen in the limelight and assumed they would walk thru the game. Florida has been convincing in each of their tourney games, and will be amped up for this game. You can't look past a team when it comes down to reaching the championships, I think UNC and maybe even UCONN looked past GM. I look for a very concentrated Gators squad, and a 15 point win.

[CuseFan10]

You are in a no lose siutatio ndespite what the dude above this post wrote, so ignore him. I would bet 300 on the George Mason moneyline (which is liek 2.5 to 1). If George Mason wins, then you hit for over about $700. If Florida wins, you win $700.

Either way you are winning $700 no matter what happens.

If you REALLY feel that Florida will crush them and GMU has no chance to win, then maybe only place $150-200 on GMU moneyline.

I would do the above because I am guaranteed $700 either way.

[williwonka05]

:thumbs:

[williwonka05]

:thumbs:

[rooter]

Originally posted by CuseFan10
You are in a no lose siutatio ndespite what the dude above this post wrote, so ignore him. I would bet 300 on the George Mason moneyline (which is liek 2.5 to 1). If George Mason wins, then you hit for over about $700. If Florida wins, you win $700.

Either way you are winning $700 no matter what happens.

If you REALLY feel that Florida will crush them and GMU has no chance to win, then maybe only place $150-200 on GMU moneyline.

I would do the above because I am guaranteed $700 either way.

bingo :thumbs:

[Uncle Phezter]

Only thing I'll add is this: you could hedge on your hedge.....

Play $200 on GM moneyline (to win $500)

Play $150 on GM +6

That way if Florida wins but doesn't cover your "hedge bet" only costs you $50 and you net $950. If GM wins outright you win $650. If Florids wins and covers you win $650.

This is the safest play IMO....and I would ABSOLUTELY hedge in this way or one of the plays mentioned above.