Recent Observation

[Kdub]

Greetings folks!

Im a newbie as far as this message baord goes since the beginning of the NCAA tourney. I just registered yesterday though and I plan to post what I know.

Anyway, while I have been coming here to see what people are picking, I have used a few other tools to make my own wagers. Every once in awhile, I will see people say "Its a cant miss pick, Im taking the Spurs -2" Or like a few nights ago, everyone laying the luber on the Heat to cover against the Wolves....I am kinda looking for a huge consensus one way or the other, and then use some betting charts and whatnot to make some picks.

I dont know about you, but it seems like Vegas always is up to something, and when something seems like A GIVEN, its usually the exact opposite.

Yesterday, I came in and I seen a lot fo wood beinglaid on the Spurs again, so I took Denver and the points. Then I seen a few take the Knicks and the points....and betting charts reflected that 66% of the public were taking the Knicks and the points as well, so I took the Magic, and the Magic covered.

I screwed up here and took Missouri St +3 against Luoisville, and that looked promising for 1 half of play, then I do not know what went wrong, but they got it taken to em. So of those 3 plays, I played 1 unit each and came out ahead. However, I also put a unit down on a 3 team parlay using the same picks and lost it because of Missouri St..............

Good luck to you all, hopefully I will have some picks up later.

[Naderhodroj44]

You make a great observation, we need to go against the popular pick that public loves to go for, public loves the favorites and they have hard enough time giving enough credit to underdogs here.

I mentioned something earlier that we need to do a better job of forecasting things. I mean when you see the public all over Miami or San antonia, there is something going on. I warned Frankied yesterday with taking San antonio and still took them. There record back to back is horrendous, plus the line is too good to be true.

[frankied]

ya i learned my lesson :bang: :bang: :bang: lol thanks for callin me out lol but it was the coach fault cause he took all his starters out an then they started losen bad then he puts them bac in to make them have a comebac and they did have a combac but if he would of jus played his starters more and have them rest 4 a littlebit they would of had that game i mean theres lot of time to rest ur players still why is he doin it now i dont get it but oh well

[illmatic]

I agree with Kdub.

Frankie bro, you gotta start using sentences instead of using one long run-on. lol

[Outlaw82]

I agree, someone give me some odds on getting frankie checked into some type of a literacy program.

[frankied]

stop makin fun of me lol

[frankied]

outlaw lines are 2 to 1 lol

[Outlaw82]

Hey, don't get me wrong though. I do like hearing what you have to say. So keep the info coming. Who else you like tonight besides Memphis and Wash?

[HawkPL]

just a quick observation:

Don't forget, we, as in everyone who posts here... is a part of the betting "public."

[Underdog88]

Originally posted by HawkPL
just a quick observation:

Don't forget, we, as in everyone who posts here... is a part of the betting "public."

Well said Hawk:thumbs: Although KDub has some very good points I have to say that purely fading the public may work for a bit, but IMO you can't base your plays solely on that. Vegas was not "up to anything" when they set this line. The line wasn't low because they knew the Nuggets were going to win. It was low because of the Spurs poor B2B record paired with the trip away. They were forced however to make them a favorite because they are a top tier team & win a ton more than they lose. Vegas set the line low to get even $$ on both sides, not to trick you. Like I said this can work in some instances, but there are other factors that come into play (such as scheduling & travel, matchups, motivation & momentum). The other day the Bucks were only favored by 2 to the Blazers & the public was on the Bucks big. They went on to lead the whole game & covered rather easily. Also why would you say you screwed up taking Miss St if you used the same method to pick that game?
Naderhodroj while I agree that over time you are better off taking mostly faves, there are plenty of instances where the public is giving way too much value to a dog, & the favorite is probably the wiser play (Magic yesterday). As far as Frankified, why would he change his mind just because you "warned" him? I know I wouldn't LoL
KDub I agree that consensus can be a helpful tool as I look at too. Maybe we should have a thread open to everyone each day to discuss these kinds of plays going against consensus:thumbs:

[frankied]

i couldnt of said it any better underdog :bow: lol

[getthispaper]

Originally posted by Outlaw82
Hey, don't get me wrong though. I do like hearing what you have to say. So keep the info coming. Who else you like tonight besides Memphis and Wash?


This would be my classic example of one of my BIGGEST pet peeves when it comes to sports betting forums. Its just when you think you've got it figured out. :puke: Seen it happen FAR TOO OFTEN! And its always the newbs.... I never pay them any attention :thumbs:

[frankied]

getthispaper i forgot ur such an expert lol

[Underdog88]

Today was another example of the public cashing in on a heavily bet fave-Memphis. Fading the public would have had you on the Clipshow:mad:

[getthispaper]

Originally posted by frankied
getthispaper i forgot ur such an expert lol

You completely missed my point. :roll:
Besides if you research my picks, you'll see my record speaks for itself.

[Naderhodroj44]

good feedback guys, I am really impressed. Here is the thing with Frankied. I wouldn't change my pick because someone told me so. But having said that look at their back to back record games. The best thing to do is stay away from this game. I got burned 2-3 times before and I learned my lesson. The only time you go back to back with a team if there isn't too much travel involved plus there is the motivation factor. Which team is desperate for the game more.

[Kdub]

Just wanted to say thanks for the feedback and try to answer a few questions....

I said I made a bad play on Missouri St because when I seen the line, I thought it was too good to be true (-3 I believe)....in addition, many here were taking the Cards and the points and various betting charts showed the same. I went against that, and it cost me a parlay....that was what I was getting at as far as making a bad play on Missouri St.

While I do not totally agree with going against the public in every instance, I guess it would more-less fall under the category or "Too Good To Be True"

Someone mentioned that it would be nice to have a thread designated specifically for this type of discussion. We could post the lines that seem to good to be true, and those are the lines in which you may bank on fading the public........

Also, I am a little rusty on betting vocab, so correct me if I am wrong, but am I correct thinking that "fading" means going against?

Also, I work 2nd shift, so I could not return to the computer yesterday to get my 1 play in, which was a parlay. I took Memphis ML and West Virginia -10.5 (bought 5.5 pts). I out 2 units on it and did cash in a few bucks. I started with a small deposit, so my units are a whopping 5 bucks right now........

1 question....when would be a good time to increase my units? Right now, 1 unit is 5 bucks, but when would you say is a good time to up a unit to 6 bucks or 10and so on?

Thanks for your help and lets win some mulaaaaaa!!

[Outlaw82]

This would be my classic example of one of my BIGGEST pet peeves when it comes to sports betting forums. Its just when you think you've got it figured out. Seen it happen FAR TOO OFTEN! And its always the newbs.... I never pay them any attention


enough said!

[Outlaw82]

Originally posted by Outlaw82
This would be my classic example of one of my BIGGEST pet peeves when it comes to sports betting forums. Its just when you think you've got it figured out. Seen it happen FAR TOO OFTEN! And its always the newbs.... I never pay them any attention


enough said!