WildBillPicks7
03-23-2006, 10:58 AM
Last year was a horrendous year in MLB for the wildster. It was my second consecutive year of being below 200 plus units in 25 years of capping MLB and it was my second year at being negative units.
The goal this year is to be plus 150 units and cut down the number of plays.
After digging out my old information from my storage closet, I found the tools that helped me before the computer age became about and if you use these tools as I have in the past, they should be proven to be profitable for you in 2006.
What are the tools?
First and foremost, know the history of each starting pitcher that is pitching. Use their last 3 years of winning percentage based on the total number of starts and play equal units each start they make. For instance, a Chris Carpenter had a winning percentage last year over 80% and was 29-7. The last 3 years his winning percentage is over 75% when healthy. If you played equal units on the money line, you would of been positive, depending on the average money line posted for him being listed as the SP.
Secondly, pitchers coming off career years, ie., CY YOUNG winners, for some reason are heavier favorites the following season and seem to have down years in the beginning, such as a Johan Santana, 2004 CY Young Winner who had it rough last year but still managed to win 72.2% of his starts.
Pitchers who are notoriously bad bets would be Jose Lima, 25.5% and pitchers with huge money line losses would be Randy Johnson, even with a winning percentage over 61%, RJ is a bad bet with money lines unless he's the underdog or near pick em. As a favorite of -250 or more, he's negative 3,000 the last 3 years on the money line, even with a winning record as far as stats go.
Thirdly, know the teams. Some teams dominate other teams. Last year Tampa Bay crushed the number vs the Yankees. The worst money line teams last year were:
Florida 51.2% -1571
Detroit 43.8% -1877
NYY 58.6% -1658
Seattle 42.6% -1762
Cubs 48.8% -1526
Pirates 41.4% -1574
Dodgers 43.8% -2455
Orioles 45.7% -1982
Early in the season last year the Orioles fooled many of the experts and got out of the gate quickly and they fell flat on their assets the second half and fired Lee Mazilli who's now with the Yankees.
Another team that fooled many in the beginning last year was the Nationals.
Top Money Line teams in 2005:
White sox 61% +2300
Cards 61.7% +973
Angels 58.6% +1029
Indians 57.4% +1180
Bluejays 49.4% +869 (Even with Halladay's injury)
Knowing the teams as mentioned, these teams dominated certain opponents last year:
D'backs 13-5 vs the Dodgers
Braves 13-6 vs the Muts
Cubs 11-5 vs the Pirates
Astros 12-4 vs the Reds
Astros 10-5 vs the Brew Crew
Mets 6-1 vs the D-backs
Phillies 6-0 vs SD & 5-1 vs SF
Cards 11-5 vs the Reds, Astros & Brewers 12-4 vs Pittsburgh
Nationals 5-1 vs the Cubs & Pirates, 4-2 vs the Dodgers
O's 12-6 vs the D-Rays
Red Sox 13-6 vs D-Rays
Red Sox 7-2 vs Texas
White Sox 14-5 vs Cleve
White Sox 13-5 vs KC
White Sox 12-6 vs Detroit
White Sox 6-2 vs O's & 6-3 vs Seattle
Angels 15-4 vs Texas
A's 12-6 vs Seattle
Yankees 12-6 vs Toronto
Texas 13-6 vs Seattle
Toronto 5-1 vs Angels
Over/Under players beware:
Most overs in 2005-
Hendrickson T-Bay 20 overs 10 unders
Myers-Phillies 17 overs 13 unders
Claudio Vargas with DC & D-backs 13 overs 6 unders
Oliver Perez-Pirates 15-4 over/under
Halsey-Dbacks 16-10 over/under
Eric Milton-Reds 20-13 over/under
Morris-Cards (now with SF Giants) 19-12 over/under
Pineiro-Mariners 19-11 over/under
Horacio Ramirez-Braves 18-12 over/under
Teams with most overs:
Florida 81-70-11
Reds 87-71-4
D-Rays 83-72-7
Teams with most unders:
White Sox 63-90-9
Angels 71-85-6
Indians 67-83-12
DC Nats 61-90-11
Orioles 68-85-9
Tigers 74-84-4
Rockies 72-83-7
Pitchers with best Under % in 2005:
Blanton-A's 22-9
Lackey-Angels 22-13
Contrerars-White Sox 22-10
Saarloos-A's 19-6
Oswalt-Astros 25-12
Wang-Yankees 13-5
Millwood-Indians (Now Texas) 20-7
Teams that helped themselves in 2006:
Indians: picked up Paul Byrd & Jason Johnson & Guillermo Mota
Yankees: picked up Octavio Dotel, Kyle Farnsworth & Johnny Damon.
Texas: picked up Kevin Millwood, Vincente Padilla, Alfonseca & Adam Eaton, 3 starting pitchers and a set up man.
Bluejays: picked up Troy Glaus, Burnett, Molina & BJ Ryan.
Dodgers: added infield help with Furcal, Mueller & Garciaparra and return healthy Eric Gagne.
Teams that hurt themselves in the off-season:
Florida Marlins
Los Angeles Angels
Divisional rulers in 2005:
St Louis 51-29 vs Central
White Sox 52-22 vs Central & 52-29 away games
Red Sox were 54-27 at home
Yankees 25-14 vs AL West
Astros 53-28 at home
Indians 50-31 away
A's 25-15 vs AL Central
Phillies 22-9 vs NL Worst (west)
Mets 20-12 vs NL Worst & 48-33 at home
Texas 25-15 vs AL Central
Tampa 18-14 vs AL Worst(west)
Divisional Worst records in 2005:
Braves 13-17 vs NL West
White Sox 15-22 vs AL West
Twins 17-22 vs AL West
Cubs 11-23 vs NL East & 38-43 at home
D-Backs 11-21 vs NL East
O's 13-22 vs AL Central
Reds 31-50 away
Detroit 29-46 vs AL Central
Seattle 30-51 away
Rockies 27-54 away & 15-28 vs NL Central
Pirates 30-50 vs NL Central
Tampa 27-54 away
KC 22-59 away, 8-26 vs AL West
GLTA this year and let's make some money!!
WB :thumbs:
The goal this year is to be plus 150 units and cut down the number of plays.
After digging out my old information from my storage closet, I found the tools that helped me before the computer age became about and if you use these tools as I have in the past, they should be proven to be profitable for you in 2006.
What are the tools?
First and foremost, know the history of each starting pitcher that is pitching. Use their last 3 years of winning percentage based on the total number of starts and play equal units each start they make. For instance, a Chris Carpenter had a winning percentage last year over 80% and was 29-7. The last 3 years his winning percentage is over 75% when healthy. If you played equal units on the money line, you would of been positive, depending on the average money line posted for him being listed as the SP.
Secondly, pitchers coming off career years, ie., CY YOUNG winners, for some reason are heavier favorites the following season and seem to have down years in the beginning, such as a Johan Santana, 2004 CY Young Winner who had it rough last year but still managed to win 72.2% of his starts.
Pitchers who are notoriously bad bets would be Jose Lima, 25.5% and pitchers with huge money line losses would be Randy Johnson, even with a winning percentage over 61%, RJ is a bad bet with money lines unless he's the underdog or near pick em. As a favorite of -250 or more, he's negative 3,000 the last 3 years on the money line, even with a winning record as far as stats go.
Thirdly, know the teams. Some teams dominate other teams. Last year Tampa Bay crushed the number vs the Yankees. The worst money line teams last year were:
Florida 51.2% -1571
Detroit 43.8% -1877
NYY 58.6% -1658
Seattle 42.6% -1762
Cubs 48.8% -1526
Pirates 41.4% -1574
Dodgers 43.8% -2455
Orioles 45.7% -1982
Early in the season last year the Orioles fooled many of the experts and got out of the gate quickly and they fell flat on their assets the second half and fired Lee Mazilli who's now with the Yankees.
Another team that fooled many in the beginning last year was the Nationals.
Top Money Line teams in 2005:
White sox 61% +2300
Cards 61.7% +973
Angels 58.6% +1029
Indians 57.4% +1180
Bluejays 49.4% +869 (Even with Halladay's injury)
Knowing the teams as mentioned, these teams dominated certain opponents last year:
D'backs 13-5 vs the Dodgers
Braves 13-6 vs the Muts
Cubs 11-5 vs the Pirates
Astros 12-4 vs the Reds
Astros 10-5 vs the Brew Crew
Mets 6-1 vs the D-backs
Phillies 6-0 vs SD & 5-1 vs SF
Cards 11-5 vs the Reds, Astros & Brewers 12-4 vs Pittsburgh
Nationals 5-1 vs the Cubs & Pirates, 4-2 vs the Dodgers
O's 12-6 vs the D-Rays
Red Sox 13-6 vs D-Rays
Red Sox 7-2 vs Texas
White Sox 14-5 vs Cleve
White Sox 13-5 vs KC
White Sox 12-6 vs Detroit
White Sox 6-2 vs O's & 6-3 vs Seattle
Angels 15-4 vs Texas
A's 12-6 vs Seattle
Yankees 12-6 vs Toronto
Texas 13-6 vs Seattle
Toronto 5-1 vs Angels
Over/Under players beware:
Most overs in 2005-
Hendrickson T-Bay 20 overs 10 unders
Myers-Phillies 17 overs 13 unders
Claudio Vargas with DC & D-backs 13 overs 6 unders
Oliver Perez-Pirates 15-4 over/under
Halsey-Dbacks 16-10 over/under
Eric Milton-Reds 20-13 over/under
Morris-Cards (now with SF Giants) 19-12 over/under
Pineiro-Mariners 19-11 over/under
Horacio Ramirez-Braves 18-12 over/under
Teams with most overs:
Florida 81-70-11
Reds 87-71-4
D-Rays 83-72-7
Teams with most unders:
White Sox 63-90-9
Angels 71-85-6
Indians 67-83-12
DC Nats 61-90-11
Orioles 68-85-9
Tigers 74-84-4
Rockies 72-83-7
Pitchers with best Under % in 2005:
Blanton-A's 22-9
Lackey-Angels 22-13
Contrerars-White Sox 22-10
Saarloos-A's 19-6
Oswalt-Astros 25-12
Wang-Yankees 13-5
Millwood-Indians (Now Texas) 20-7
Teams that helped themselves in 2006:
Indians: picked up Paul Byrd & Jason Johnson & Guillermo Mota
Yankees: picked up Octavio Dotel, Kyle Farnsworth & Johnny Damon.
Texas: picked up Kevin Millwood, Vincente Padilla, Alfonseca & Adam Eaton, 3 starting pitchers and a set up man.
Bluejays: picked up Troy Glaus, Burnett, Molina & BJ Ryan.
Dodgers: added infield help with Furcal, Mueller & Garciaparra and return healthy Eric Gagne.
Teams that hurt themselves in the off-season:
Florida Marlins
Los Angeles Angels
Divisional rulers in 2005:
St Louis 51-29 vs Central
White Sox 52-22 vs Central & 52-29 away games
Red Sox were 54-27 at home
Yankees 25-14 vs AL West
Astros 53-28 at home
Indians 50-31 away
A's 25-15 vs AL Central
Phillies 22-9 vs NL Worst (west)
Mets 20-12 vs NL Worst & 48-33 at home
Texas 25-15 vs AL Central
Tampa 18-14 vs AL Worst(west)
Divisional Worst records in 2005:
Braves 13-17 vs NL West
White Sox 15-22 vs AL West
Twins 17-22 vs AL West
Cubs 11-23 vs NL East & 38-43 at home
D-Backs 11-21 vs NL East
O's 13-22 vs AL Central
Reds 31-50 away
Detroit 29-46 vs AL Central
Seattle 30-51 away
Rockies 27-54 away & 15-28 vs NL Central
Pirates 30-50 vs NL Central
Tampa 27-54 away
KC 22-59 away, 8-26 vs AL West
GLTA this year and let's make some money!!
WB :thumbs: