Not so fast my friend

[williwonka05]

Taking a look at the matchups



Willi Tourney to date
5-6 (STALEMATE -/+ 0 units)

[williwonka05]

I will be breaking down the matchups..

Instead of just saying .. " I think Memphis is weak and Bradley can play with them"


We need to break down the 5 of 5 matchup... See where teams can be exploited, and see where a teams weakness will hurt them.


Let's get away from THE HATIN that goes on and THE ROOTIN that goes on......


Let's have some productive conversation....

[HuskyDomains]

I agree.. When I get some time later, I'll make apost with some valid analysis as to why Bradley will cover against the Tigers...

[williwonka05]

I agree.. When I get some time later, I'll make apost with some valid analysis as to why Bradley will cover against the Tigers...


can't wait for that ....

[williwonka05]

LET'S PICK SOME WINNERS my friend..

believe me when i tell you , i am here to pick some winners ..

Just wanna let you know i'm your friend in all this ..

I hope there are no hard feelings ... I'm just stating my opinions and i know you are too... FOR THE RECORD ....

[williwonka05]

At the beginning of the year LSU couldn't buy a close win. First 5 losses of the season were by a combined 11 points.

1 pt loss to houston
4 pt loss to norther iowa
3 pt loss to cinci
1 pt loss to uconn
2 pt loss to ohio st.

THEY HAVE PLAYED A SOLID SCHEDULE and have yet to really get blown out . Worst loss was by 15 in SEC Championship game to Florida. Early on their youth seemed to keep them from winning close games. Being able to pull out a one point win over TEXAS A&M was big.

BIG MATCHUP at the point here with Mitchell a senior , and Paulus a freshman (most likely Dockery will get the assignment)... Mitchell playin well is key for LSU... AND HE FLAT OUT CAN LIGHT IT UP .. In late January/early February Mitchell went off in a three game span scoring 79 points . 24,28,27.... He also hit the big three ball to beat A&M..It will open things up for Davis 6'9", and Thomas 6'9" if Mitchell (their best outside threat) can get going .

Who is gonna get the assignment of Mr Reddick is the question. Could be Lazare, could be Temple... LSU has guys that can defend, and they are long .. 6 of the 7 players who lead LSU in minutes are 6'7" or better. They matchup quite well underneath. Big Baby and Shelden gonna see an awful lot of each other as well and Mr Tyus Thomas and Josh McRoberts...

Who has the more "impact" depth? Not too crazy about Dukes' bench at all.

If anybody is familiar with LSU do they pack it in alot or do they play nothing but man?

From the looks of this matchup on the court , I can see LSU beating Duke if the shots are fallin.. They only shot 35% in the win over A&M . To beat Duke, that number needs to be in the high 40's.

Here is a little statistical breakdown

REBOUNDING : Huge advantage to LSU ... +8.4 for LSU, -2.9 for Duke...

SHOOTING % : Both teams shoot a good %, 49.4 for Duke, 47.4 for LSU

DEFENSIVE FG % : small adv LSU 40.9 percent to 43.0 for Duke.

3 BALL : DUKE huge advantage in shooting the three 39.4% to LSU's 33.7 and Duke also defends it better, opponents are shooting 35.4% from 3 ball against LSU, while Duke yields a very solid 30.4.

[TheBeholdah]

nice break down willi, the thing is, matchups aside, duke plays a style of smart basketball that is tough to bet against, i couldnt bet against them at this point no matter what

[CuseFan10]

LSU's lack of a PG is gonna kill them IMO in that game. If it comes down to decision making the Tigers don't have a chance because Mitchell is not a PG. LSU needs to offset their porr decision making by hammering Duke dwn low and on the glass, and getting Shelden in to foul trouble otherwise I don't know if the game will be all that tight own the stretch.

[williwonka05]

I think Florida has great personnel. I love the work NOAH puts in. He works extremely hard on the offensive end and he plays good D. Horford and Noah vs Hibbert and Green is a good matchup and with Brewer's length they can win the rebounding against the HOYAS... When Brewer is hitting shots , HE IS A TOUGH, TOUGH matchup.....

When is Taureen Green gonna get going? He's struggled in the first two games shooting the ball (only 14 total points) in the two games and Florida has found ways to still win convincingly. i remember watching him play in the preseason tournament and he was sensational.

Any thoughts on this game out there ..

I've watched Georgetown really struggle to put the ball in the hoop at times. Particularly against Illinois in Champagne.


Noah
Humphrey
Brewer
Green
Horford

vs

Green
Hibbert
Owens
Cook
Bowman

Seems to me Georgetown has some serious issues playing with the lead in the second half of ball games..

IN 5 of their 9 losses they have led at the half

-against Vandy - Gtown led by 7 at the half, only to be outscored by 14 in the 2nd Half

-in both losses to WVU they led at the half only to be outscored by 9 in the second half of the first meeting, and 21 in the second half of the second meeting

-against South Florida they led by 1 at the half and were outscored 33-25 in the second half

- and most recently against CUSE in the BIG EAST TOURNEY. Georgetown gave up a 15 point halftime lead. Getting outscored 37-21 in the second half of that Big East Tourney semi...

[williwonka05]

Time to take an in depth look at the Mountaineers..


Key Cogs :

PITTSNOGLE - good shooter,big and tall, not much of a defender
GANSEY - their best all around player, good leader, shoots,rebounds
HERBER - Good player, good shooter, not super athletic,smart though, savvy player
JD COLLINS - Ok. Just an ok point guard. Adequate, but not extremely gifted player
FRANK YOUNG - Good athlete, good shooter, can play on the wing,plays hard

Bench :

BELEIN - 3 pt bomber, long range ones too, just a 3pt shooter though, not much else
NICHOLS - Similiar to Collins, contributes a little here and there, but nothing special at all... "not the deepest team"


What a rebounding differential !!!! My my my Mountaineers this could be the end of the road. That rebounding difference (Texas best in the nation, WVU 3rd Worst) is trouble,trouble, trouble... I know West Virginia is known to be a giant killer lately this time of the year, but that cannot be good for them in any way,shape, or form...

Basically Mountaineers will have to hit about 15 threes to have a chance in this one (MY OPINION). And Texas is pretty good at defending the three at 42nd in the nation (32%)....

I like Texas... Tucker is playin well and creats matchup problems with his size and athleticism, Alridge will force Pittsnogle in to the paint where he's not as effective offensively and not a great defender.

I like Texas by 8..... GOOD LUCK

[williwonka05]

Originally posted by TheBeholdah
nice break down willi, the thing is, matchups aside, duke plays a style of smart basketball that is tough to bet against, i couldnt bet against them at this point no matter what

I agree with the fact that Duke is tough to go against with the smart brand of ball they play...


But i'm goin with LSU ... At this point I can't pass up a solid basketball team like LSU gettin 7 points on a neutral court. I don't care who they are playin

[TheBeholdah]

i feel ya, the value is there

[Kevin]

There's always going to be value in a David vs. Goliath.

The bastard part of the equation is to figure out if the small school will have a letdown or not.

And that one is ROUGH to figure out!

[williwonka05]

And by all means LSU vs. Duke is far from DAVID vs. GOLIATH.....

[HuskyDomains]

Originally posted by williwonka05
And by all means LSU vs. Duke is far from DAVID vs. GOLIATH.....

If Williams gets played tough inside and/or gets into foul trouble, LSU might end up looking more like Goliath....



Just sayin'

[HuskyDomains]

In addition I hope you hit LSU to win the whole tourney @ 77-1, because if LSU ends up as champs, no one in my contest will have it, and I'll end up with the most overall pts...


Of course I'd much rather see a UConn championship, but if I had to pick a 2nd team it would be LSU

[Underdog88]

Very scary going against Reddick & Sheldon-can't wait to see Sheldon/Big Baby battle it out. LSU is a good team no doubt, but IMO unless Mitchell has a great game, Duke will run away with this one. Who has LSU beat? (WV when they were slumping) & Kentucky (pretenders). Although they played Uconn tough, they have lost to Florida twice(blown leads), Bama, Cincy, & Ohio st (blew a 15 pt lead in this one). Seems to me they are leading in virtually every game, then collapse late. I can see them keeping it close, but if Duke gets up late, they could pour it on. 6.5 seems like alot of pts to me, but late fts & the 3 ball potential of Duke make me nervous. IMO there is value in Bradley & i too like Texas to win:thumbs:

[williwonka05]

:thumbs: