AJPhilly
03-13-2006, 11:06 PM
Overall NCAA Basketball Tournament Trends (All stats are from 1999 and cover the last seven years)
Straight Up winners are 331-99-11 ATS during March Madness with the Favorites going (305-136 SU) 195-99-11 ATS (66.3%).
From that set of base results Underdogs that lose Straight Up cover the number just 33.7% of the time. That being the case, if you are going to play an underdog, you might be better served to play them on the money line.
Overall, Underdogs are a combinded 231-199-11 ATS (53.7%).
The best performing seeds ATS have been the #12 (60.3%), #10 (58.7%) and #8 (57.2%).
The worst performances from seeds have come from the #14 seed which has a 11-17-2 ATS (39.3%) mark and the not so lucky #7 seed (41.4%).
Favorites priced between -11 and -14 are 18-28-3 ATS (39.1%).
Favorites priced between -8 and -10.5 are 24-32-3 ATS (42.8%).
So putting those two parameters together and reversing them, you will see that underdogs priced between +8 and +14 are 60-42-6 ATS (58.8%).
Favorites at -3.5 or less are 50-71-5 ATS (41.3%).
Favorites priced between -4 and -7.5 are 68-65 ATS (44.4%).
Favorites of -14.5 or greater are 42-32 ATS (56.7%).
ROUND ONE
Straight Up winners in first round games are 161-57-6 ATS (73.8%).
Underdogs that lose straight up are 57-104-6 ATS (35.4%).
Underdogs are 114-104-6 ATS (52.3%).
#12 seeds vs. #5 seeds are 17-10-1 ATS (62.9%).
Both the #3 and #10 seeds are 59% ATS winning propositions in opening round games.
Favorites priced between -11 and -14 are 8-17-2 ATS (32%).
Favorites priced between -4 to -7.5 are 21-29 ATS (42%).
Favorites of -18.5 points in round one are 25-17 ATS (59.5%).
ROUND TWO
Straight Up winners in round two games are a blistering 91-18-3 ATS (83.5%).
Underdogs that lose straight up in round two games are 18-48-3 ATS (27.3%) including 9-33-2 ATS (21.4%) in round two games since 2001.
Overall, Underdogs in round two games are 61-48-3 ATS (55.9%). It should be noted that this angle is inflated somewhat because of the poor performances of favourites in 1999, 2000 and 2004 which went a combinded 11-36-1 ATS. Favourites during a three year span 2001 to 2003 went a combinded 28-18-2 ATS.
The best performing seed in round two has been the #10 seed, which is 11-4 ATS (73.3%). Next best is the #8 seed with an 11-5 ATS (68.7%) mark.
Underdogs of +3.5 or less are 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in the second round
Underdogs priced between +8.5 and +10.5 are 11-4-3 ATS (73.3%) in the round of thirty-two.
Upsets: (all predicted winners on the left)
NCST vs. California 1st Round
San Diego St vs. Indiana 1st Round
UAB vs Kentucky 1st Round
Wis.Milwaukee vs Oklahoma 1st Round
Syracuse vs LSU 2nd Round
Arkansas vs Memphis 2nd Round
Washington vs Illinois 2nd Round
Wichita State vs Tennesee 2nd Round
Florida vs Ohio st 3rd Round
Villinova vs Duke Finals
Straight Up winners are 331-99-11 ATS during March Madness with the Favorites going (305-136 SU) 195-99-11 ATS (66.3%).
From that set of base results Underdogs that lose Straight Up cover the number just 33.7% of the time. That being the case, if you are going to play an underdog, you might be better served to play them on the money line.
Overall, Underdogs are a combinded 231-199-11 ATS (53.7%).
The best performing seeds ATS have been the #12 (60.3%), #10 (58.7%) and #8 (57.2%).
The worst performances from seeds have come from the #14 seed which has a 11-17-2 ATS (39.3%) mark and the not so lucky #7 seed (41.4%).
Favorites priced between -11 and -14 are 18-28-3 ATS (39.1%).
Favorites priced between -8 and -10.5 are 24-32-3 ATS (42.8%).
So putting those two parameters together and reversing them, you will see that underdogs priced between +8 and +14 are 60-42-6 ATS (58.8%).
Favorites at -3.5 or less are 50-71-5 ATS (41.3%).
Favorites priced between -4 and -7.5 are 68-65 ATS (44.4%).
Favorites of -14.5 or greater are 42-32 ATS (56.7%).
ROUND ONE
Straight Up winners in first round games are 161-57-6 ATS (73.8%).
Underdogs that lose straight up are 57-104-6 ATS (35.4%).
Underdogs are 114-104-6 ATS (52.3%).
#12 seeds vs. #5 seeds are 17-10-1 ATS (62.9%).
Both the #3 and #10 seeds are 59% ATS winning propositions in opening round games.
Favorites priced between -11 and -14 are 8-17-2 ATS (32%).
Favorites priced between -4 to -7.5 are 21-29 ATS (42%).
Favorites of -18.5 points in round one are 25-17 ATS (59.5%).
ROUND TWO
Straight Up winners in round two games are a blistering 91-18-3 ATS (83.5%).
Underdogs that lose straight up in round two games are 18-48-3 ATS (27.3%) including 9-33-2 ATS (21.4%) in round two games since 2001.
Overall, Underdogs in round two games are 61-48-3 ATS (55.9%). It should be noted that this angle is inflated somewhat because of the poor performances of favourites in 1999, 2000 and 2004 which went a combinded 11-36-1 ATS. Favourites during a three year span 2001 to 2003 went a combinded 28-18-2 ATS.
The best performing seed in round two has been the #10 seed, which is 11-4 ATS (73.3%). Next best is the #8 seed with an 11-5 ATS (68.7%) mark.
Underdogs of +3.5 or less are 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in the second round
Underdogs priced between +8.5 and +10.5 are 11-4-3 ATS (73.3%) in the round of thirty-two.
Upsets: (all predicted winners on the left)
NCST vs. California 1st Round
San Diego St vs. Indiana 1st Round
UAB vs Kentucky 1st Round
Wis.Milwaukee vs Oklahoma 1st Round
Syracuse vs LSU 2nd Round
Arkansas vs Memphis 2nd Round
Washington vs Illinois 2nd Round
Wichita State vs Tennesee 2nd Round
Florida vs Ohio st 3rd Round
Villinova vs Duke Finals