Monday's 2nd Half Watchlist

[odysseym]

Had my best weekend going with the 2nd Half strategy. The window of opportunity is very short, but I find that the results are much greater after the 'mood' of the game has been set. Yesterday, I scored big with the 10 Unit play on the MD/NC St 2nd H point total & the Niagara game.

Look for good teams down at the Half, preferably at Home v. mediocre teams. The larger the deficit, the bigger the probability of a cover, if not an outright comeback win. Just look at Hofstra @ Home v. Delaware or Arizona down @ UCLA by 16 at the H. I think it was AZ+3 2nd H and they lost by 11. Same with ND @ Louisville: Down 6 at the H, +2 2nd H, and lost by 3 in OT.

If any of these teams are down at the Half, I'm looking closely at the 2nd H props:

7pm: Delaware (-3.5? 2nd H) @ Jane Madison

9pm: Texas (-6? 2nd H) @ Tex Tech

10pm: @ SF (-3? 2nd H) v. Pepperspray

10pm: @ San Diego (-4.5? 2nd H) v. Loyola Marymt

10pm: Fresno St (-4? 2nd H) @ Idaho

12am: @ Gonzaga (-6? 2nd H) v. St. Mary's

Personally, I hope Gonzaga is down by 20 v. St. Mary's at the H. That would be a 20 Unit 2nd H play!

Good luck.

(YTD: 11-8-0, +20.67)

[nikkins]

Kinda tough to make such an early decision on 2nd half plays, but BOL to ya tonight

[odysseym]

Hi Nikkins, thanks for your input. I haven't made any of those plays. I was simply putting out a watchlist for myself and anyone interested as to which games would have value at the H.

If any of those favored teams were already leading at the H, I wouldn't bother. But in the event that they were down, and down big, I see value in that 2nd H line.

Gonzaga will probably be leading comfortably at the H, but if they're down, then that's a definite play. An even bigger play if they're down big since they'll most likely come back and not only cover the -6, but win the game outright. Same with San Francisco @ Home v. Pepperdine and Fresno State on the road @ Idaho.

I'll post any plays I acutally make after the Half of any of those games. It could be a no-play night if the scenario doesn't exist.

Good Luck!

[CuseFan10]

So you are posting guesses on what second half spreads might be if the favorite is losing? Its great that you had recent success with the strategy, but I don't think it's any great revelation that the favored team will make a second half comeback if they are down at halftime, do you?

GL if you wind up playing yous sytem tonight Odyssey!

[odysseym]

2nd Half spreads are typically half of the original entire-game line, irrelevant of the actual Half time score. Case in point was Arizona down by 16 at the Half at UCLA on Saturday and yet they were given another +3 at the half. It was an easy cover.

I accidentally posted on an old thread, but I just placed 1 Unit on:

Charleston -3 2nd H @ Elon. Down by 11 at the H.

Let's see how it plays out.

Good luck with your plays too Cuse!

[CuseFan10]

I don't agree with that statement at all. The score definitely has bearing on what the halftime spread is.

GL with CoC!!!

[odysseym]

GA Southern (9-1 @ Home) -3 2nd H; down 9 at the H to W. Carolina (3-8 Away).

Look for the tough Home Team to make a push in the 2nd H.

Original full-game line was GA Southern -8.5, yet the 2nd H line is only -3. If anything, the line moved to make the cover an easier one than the pre-game line.

3 Units for 2.73

[odysseym]

Coll of Charleston couldn't quite complete the comeback, but they did show just enough heart to cover the 3, losing by 7 (down 11 at the H)

GA Southern did even better and came back from 9 down at the break and won by 5 (a 14 pt swing) easily covering the 3.

So far tonight: 2-0 for 3.63 Units (YTD: 13-8-0, +24.3)

Right now, can't quite get a beat on the TX/TX Tech game. It might be a no-play at the H.

But I will be rooting for Pepperdine, Loyola-Marymt, Idaho & St. Mary's in the first H, hoping they somehow build a lead. Then I'll take a closer look at the line and will consider a play on the favored team.