Horfin's Divisional Playoffs: Sunday

[Horfin]

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

Any game where one team only had one real loss is extremely difficult to cap. Pittsburgh was injured the last time these two matchedup. Indy lines are always inflated. Pittsburgh is almost guaranteed to score 20 points (in only 4 of their 17 games they scored less than 20 points and in 14 of 17 they scored more than 17 points). Pittsburgh only allowed more than 26 points one time (To Cincinnati). Indy on the flip side is hard (almost too hard to capp). First Indy had a six game span where they only played one team with more than six wins (NE). Indy has proven that they can win in low scoring and high scoring games (10-3 vs. Jax and 45-37 vs. Cincy). Pittsburgh is playing HOT and Indy has been off for a month. I don't think there is much of a chance (although there is a chance) that Pittsburgh wins this straight up. However, Pitt is good enough to Hang long enough to get the cover. This, by no means is a strong play, however, Pitt only had one loss by double digits (to Indy) the other losses were by 3,6,3 and 7. Leads me to believe that this line is TOO HIGH.
Indy 27 - Pittsburgh 20.

1 Unit: Pittsburgh +9.5

Carolina vs. Chicago
About 5 weeks ago I jumped aboard the Bears bandwagon. I am by no means a Bears fan, but I love the thought of a team that no one gave a chance in hell to go anywhere having a chance to go to the Championchip game. So I may be a little "biased." That being said what do these numbers have in common:
6
24
3
6
9
3
7
3

These are the points allowed at home by Chicago.
The one score that doesn't fit in is a Game versus Cincinnati. In that game Chicago threw 5 Interceptions and had 4 fumbles (1 lost). In their remaining 15 games Chicago had 10 Intereceptions and 12 fumbles. Thus, in my mind, the Cincy game was an aboration (sp?).

Grossman adds something to this team - an extra desire to win or a belief that the offense can do something.

Carolina has been rough for me this year. Everytime I bet against them they cover and when I bet with them they fail to cover. That being said, Carolina seems to lose their offense on the road. The public seems to be pounding Carolinabecause of what they saw last week against NYGiants...
NE couldn't win two consecutive road games in the Playoffs.
Washington couldn't win two consecutive road games in the Playoffs.

Chicago's Defense is not given enough credit and Grossman will be the first rookie (playoff) QB this year to win his first Playoff game

Capping the game based upon the season, Chicago wins this game 14-10. However with Grossman the final score should be 20-10 or 21-10.

Chicago -2.5 <---------2 Units.

Good Luck Everyone!

Horf!n:thumbs:

[Horfin]

Forgot to say this:

Since both of my projected totals are so close to the available line I am not touching either total.


Horfy

[tiencan]

good info horfin, GL!

[Stifler's Mom]

Nice winner with Denver.

Don't know if you saw my thread, but I actually did go with them (in a parlay with Indy ML), simply because despite liking NE, I felt I was getting suckered big time had I played them. I would have been.

I like the way I can give my thoughts about games in your threads, and not have people bitching and fighting if I disagree, but rather having it start a discussion like it's supposed to, so hope you don't mind....

First off, I really like Chicago. I think you're right on with your thoughts on that one. Hopefully it plays out that way on the field.

I think Steeltown is in for a long long afternoon tomorrow though.

GL :thumbs:

[DJTranks]

GL Horfin!!

[Horfin]

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom
Nice winner with Denver.

Don't know if you saw my thread, but I actually did go with them (in a parlay with Indy ML), simply because despite liking NE, I felt I was getting suckered big time had I played them. I would have been.

I like the way I can give my thoughts about games in your threads, and not have people bitching and fighting if I disagree, but rather having it start a discussion like it's supposed to, so hope you don't mind....

First off, I really like Chicago. I think you're right on with your thoughts on that one. Hopefully it plays out that way on the field.

I think Steeltown is in for a long long afternoon tomorrow though.

GL :thumbs:

The Indy/Pitt game is really hard for me to capp. It doesn't fit into a "normal" matchup (at least the way I capp games). I think Pitt should be able to "hang" around long enough to get me the cover. The only problem will be if the score is like 14-0 early (Indy on top), I don't see Pitt coming back like they did against Cincy.

Chicago gets no respect., the main thing that scares me about this game is:
No. 1 seed Seattle won
No. 2 seed Denver won
No. 1 seed Indy (if they win)
and Chicago is the remaining High seed team, every year one (at least) of the top 2 sides gets booted in this round. I don't see it happening to Indy, so it might hurt Chi-towns chances.

Horf

[Stifler's Mom]

That was my thinking PRE-yesterday.

Here goes.

Of favorites, USUALLY....

One team wins but doesn't cover (I was thinking Seattle....and they did push some/cover others, depending where you got the line and when...so does this count as ANYTHING?)

One game is a complete blowout (I was thinking Indy)

One will lose outright (I was actually thinking Denver, but I was wrong)

One will just win and cover in a competitive game (I was thinking Chicago)

Making 3 faves win, and 2 faves cover, while one dog wins and one dog loses but covers.

Kinda worried me too on the basis that it seems most times than not, these "trends" hold true, but I'm certainly not going to adjust my plays to fit a "trend"....as you said yesterday in your other thread, that would be pretty damn stupid, lol

Plus, in all reality Washington probably shoulda lost but covered if John Hall wasn't a butthole....and there hasn't been a "blowout" yet anyway, even if you count Seattle as a cover instead of a push.

I still think Indy blows Pitt out today, and the Chicago D will be too much for Carolina in the end.

[WHALEYDOG]

GL!!

[JoshKnows46]

Gl Horfin, we on the same page again today, But I think pitts gets the SU win today:thumbs:

[Horfin]

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom


I still think Indy blows Pitt out today, and the Chicago D will be too much for Carolina in the end.

I am scared of the Pitt/Indy game. Like I said it is so hard to cap a game when a team doesn't really lose more than one game. It is hard to get a "feel" on why or how they will lose when they only did it one time.

The other reason I went with Pitt is because I think Cower is a smart coach, he will do what SD did. But then DUngy knows what Cower will do so he will adjust. I think the win/cover issue comes down to caoching. In the past these two guys have been GREAT regular season coaches and kinda (no offense to either one) both of them blow it in the Playoffs. Cowher can never win that big game and Dungy can never win against NE. I still think Indy wins striaght up, but I think Pitt covering is more likely than Indy covering. My capping mirror's liklihoods and probabilities (that is my indy is so hard to cap).

Good Luck with your plays!

I will add Chicago/Carolina over if it looks like Indy/Pitt goes UNDER

Horf!n

[birdsfan5]

GL Horfin

[Horfin]

Just playing the ODDS:


OVER 31 in Chicago/Carolina. --- 1 unit

I don't see ALL four games going UNDER.

Horfin

[Horfin]

Added a Unit on Chicago -2.5

a total of 3 units.

[Horfin]

Originally posted by JoshKnows46
Gl Horfin, we on the same page again today, But I think pitts gets the SU win today:thumbs:


Good call my friend!!

[DJTranks]

Nice Pitt hit bro!!