SK35
12-15-2005, 09:20 PM
TB 36
NE -4.5
With RBs Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk healthy again, the Patriots last week returned to the balanced offense that served them so well last season. They had 41 runs (a season high) and 40 passes in beating the Bills. Establishing Dillon on the ground is key for setting up play action, which QB Tom Brady sells as well as anyone and which can slow down an opponent's pass rush. With all three remaining games to be played in the frigid Northeast (two at home), the Patriots know this is the time they must get their running game in gear. However, that won't be easy to do against Tampa Bay's fifth-ranked run defense.
The Bucs will try to keep it simple. Over the past few weeks, they've settled into mostly a two-tight end formations designed to dissuade teams from blitzing and enhance a running game behind Cadillac Williams. It gives QB Chris Simms fewer reads, but the downside is fewer receivers are available.
Defensively, the Bucs have gone back to their Tampa Two roots. But QB Tom Brady is a zone killer, so Tampa Bay must mix it up to get pressure.
The good news is they have the superior running game, and rookie RB Carnell Williams will get plenty of early action. The Patriots' run defense has been much improved the second half of the season and will need to be stout against Williams. Otherwise, the Patriots will have a tough time forcing Bucs QB Chris Simms into mistakes.
Taking TB +4.5 (LOST)
KC 47.5
NYG -3
Kansas City must limit the running of New York's Tiki Barber and try to force young Eli Manning to throw more than the Giants would like him to in what could be some nasty December elements at the Meadowlands. It was just a week ago, however, the Chiefs got cut up by another Barber - Dallas rookie Marion - who gashed them for 82 yards and a 5.5-yard average.
Offensively, Kansas City will let LT Willie Roaf see if he can handle the pass rush of Osi Umenyiora by himself, especially now that Roaf is closer to full speed on his hamstring. But RT John Welbourn will probably get some chipping help, at least, from tight end Tony Gonzalez or Jason Dunn as he battles Michael Strahan. KC will try to exploit the Giants middle, with injured MLB Antonio Pierce would with an injury, with the inside running of Larry Johnson.
Offensively, the Giants will have to do two critical things - minimize turnovers, because the Chiefs can control the clock with their short passing game and the power running of Larry Johnson, and run the ball successfully with Tiki Barber. If they do, the Kansas City secondary, which is not awe-inspiring, will have to come up in support, freeing the passes the Giants want to throw - down the middle to TE Jeremy Shockey.
On defense, Johnson must be held to minimal production. That won't be an easy job with MLB Antonio Pierce and RDT William Joseph out with high ankle sprains. Controlling the damage that can be done by TE Tony Gonzalez is another must-do; that will fall mostly on SS Gibril WIlson and Nick Greisen, who moves from the weak side to the middle to replace Pierce.
There is every reason to believe the Chiefs - with their strong running game and ability to stop a ground attack - will give the Giants all they can handle. But Manning has been at his best at home, and the road-weary Chiefs will falter in the second half.
Taking Giants -3 (WON)
Den -9.5
Buf 34.5
It's Dec in Buffalo, so it's a good thing the Broncos have one of the league's most potent running games. The probability of windy conditions, and the possibility of snow make throwing the ball difficult. Expect Den to pound away until Buf porous run defense proves it can stop them.
If the Broncos can't run the ball against Buffalo, there will be plenty of concern in Denver. The Bills defense hasn't been very good against the run all season. Denver hasn't been able to control a game with its running attack for a few weeks, and the Broncos would like to get back to that formula.
Defensively, the Broncos have a different challenge against Kelly Holcomb than they would have against mobile J.P. Losman, who won't start because of a shoulder injury. Kelly Holcomb is more of a pocket passer and he isn't as prone to mistakes as Losman. The Broncos will still blitz Holcomb to force him into quick decisions.
Leaning on Den -9.5 but taking under 34.5 maybe adding a teaser at game time. (LOST)
NE -4.5
With RBs Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk healthy again, the Patriots last week returned to the balanced offense that served them so well last season. They had 41 runs (a season high) and 40 passes in beating the Bills. Establishing Dillon on the ground is key for setting up play action, which QB Tom Brady sells as well as anyone and which can slow down an opponent's pass rush. With all three remaining games to be played in the frigid Northeast (two at home), the Patriots know this is the time they must get their running game in gear. However, that won't be easy to do against Tampa Bay's fifth-ranked run defense.
The Bucs will try to keep it simple. Over the past few weeks, they've settled into mostly a two-tight end formations designed to dissuade teams from blitzing and enhance a running game behind Cadillac Williams. It gives QB Chris Simms fewer reads, but the downside is fewer receivers are available.
Defensively, the Bucs have gone back to their Tampa Two roots. But QB Tom Brady is a zone killer, so Tampa Bay must mix it up to get pressure.
The good news is they have the superior running game, and rookie RB Carnell Williams will get plenty of early action. The Patriots' run defense has been much improved the second half of the season and will need to be stout against Williams. Otherwise, the Patriots will have a tough time forcing Bucs QB Chris Simms into mistakes.
Taking TB +4.5 (LOST)
KC 47.5
NYG -3
Kansas City must limit the running of New York's Tiki Barber and try to force young Eli Manning to throw more than the Giants would like him to in what could be some nasty December elements at the Meadowlands. It was just a week ago, however, the Chiefs got cut up by another Barber - Dallas rookie Marion - who gashed them for 82 yards and a 5.5-yard average.
Offensively, Kansas City will let LT Willie Roaf see if he can handle the pass rush of Osi Umenyiora by himself, especially now that Roaf is closer to full speed on his hamstring. But RT John Welbourn will probably get some chipping help, at least, from tight end Tony Gonzalez or Jason Dunn as he battles Michael Strahan. KC will try to exploit the Giants middle, with injured MLB Antonio Pierce would with an injury, with the inside running of Larry Johnson.
Offensively, the Giants will have to do two critical things - minimize turnovers, because the Chiefs can control the clock with their short passing game and the power running of Larry Johnson, and run the ball successfully with Tiki Barber. If they do, the Kansas City secondary, which is not awe-inspiring, will have to come up in support, freeing the passes the Giants want to throw - down the middle to TE Jeremy Shockey.
On defense, Johnson must be held to minimal production. That won't be an easy job with MLB Antonio Pierce and RDT William Joseph out with high ankle sprains. Controlling the damage that can be done by TE Tony Gonzalez is another must-do; that will fall mostly on SS Gibril WIlson and Nick Greisen, who moves from the weak side to the middle to replace Pierce.
There is every reason to believe the Chiefs - with their strong running game and ability to stop a ground attack - will give the Giants all they can handle. But Manning has been at his best at home, and the road-weary Chiefs will falter in the second half.
Taking Giants -3 (WON)
Den -9.5
Buf 34.5
It's Dec in Buffalo, so it's a good thing the Broncos have one of the league's most potent running games. The probability of windy conditions, and the possibility of snow make throwing the ball difficult. Expect Den to pound away until Buf porous run defense proves it can stop them.
If the Broncos can't run the ball against Buffalo, there will be plenty of concern in Denver. The Bills defense hasn't been very good against the run all season. Denver hasn't been able to control a game with its running attack for a few weeks, and the Broncos would like to get back to that formula.
Defensively, the Broncos have a different challenge against Kelly Holcomb than they would have against mobile J.P. Losman, who won't start because of a shoulder injury. Kelly Holcomb is more of a pocket passer and he isn't as prone to mistakes as Losman. The Broncos will still blitz Holcomb to force him into quick decisions.
Leaning on Den -9.5 but taking under 34.5 maybe adding a teaser at game time. (LOST)