Week 11

[SK35]

Ari 49
Stl -9.5

Don't expect a repeat of the low-scoring 17-12 Stl win in Ari in Week 2. Both defenses have been decimated by injuries, and there are enough good receivers on either team to take advantage of poor secondary play. The top priority for the Cards is containing the Rams' offense despite Ari lack of depth on the defensive line and CBs who give up too many big plays. Stl has featured much more balanced play-calling under interim coach Joe Vitt, so Ari needs someone to create turnovers on defense. Offensively, the Cards want to test one of the league's worst pass defenses, but they've had trouble with blocking all season. Stl isn't much better against the run, and Ari feeble running game must help avoid long passing situations.

The Cards should have no problem moving the ball. But two problems will be their downfall: poor red-zone production that has troubled them all season, and a defense that has little chance to slow Stl on the ground or through the air. While both teams have issues in the secondary, Ari offense won't be able to keep up with Stl scoring out-put.

The Cardinals can't run the ball, have a shaky line that gives its quarterbacks unreliable protection, and they are down essentially to Larry Fitzgerald as a receiving threat. That doesn't give coaches a lot of room to be creative in concocting a game plan.

Recently, the line starters have been shaken up, and the team has gone away from the three-wide formations in favor of using a fullback and tight end - at the same time - in an attempt to get more blocking and make the running game go. Now starting LG Reggie Wells has been lost for the season to injury.

Five of the top seven defensive linemen are lost for the season, including Pro Bowl DE Bertrand Berry, their best playmaker. Their next-best playmaker, OLB Karlos Dansby, is hurting, and the best cover corner, rookie first-round pick Antrel Rolle, remains sidelined by injury. And the unit faces an offense this week with scary big-play personnel.

Offensively, the Rams will seek to get off to fast start, build a lead, and then run the ball against a defense that allows 4.5 yards per rush.

The Rams' weakness defensively is against the run, and with Arizona's problems running the ball, the Rams will try and prevent big plays in the passing game.

Leaning on Stl -9.5 & over 49 (lost & won)

Car -3
Chi 34.5

Eventually the Panthers are going to need to prove they can move the ball effectively when WR Steve Smith is taken out of the game plan. The Bears' defense, which rank in the top 10 against the run and pass, has the ability to contain Smith, although he has repeatedly beaten double coverage this season. But if the Bears manage to slow him down, RBs Steven Davis and Deshaun Foster will have to lead the charge against a fast front seven. The Panthers have relied heavily on the big play this season, but they might have to settle for winning the field-position battle. Car own run defense is one of the best in the league and will get a chance to shine against Chi's run-heavy offense.

The Panthers would like to get Steve Smith more involved in the offense this week, but that largely will depend on not only the wind, but if the Bears use a safety over the top against him. Stephen Davis carried a season-high 27 times last week, which is a little more than the team might like. Davis will still get the bulk of the carries, but look for more of DeShaun Foster this week. After getting a combined 28 carries the previous two weeks, Foster had only six carries last week.

The Bears have built their division lead by feasting on many of the league's most talent-challenged teams. They have yet to beat a team with a winning record, and Car ability to stop the run and pressure Orton is a recipe for a convincing Panthers road win. This could be especially true if Chi best running backs are limited or out because of injuries.

The Bears have been able to run the ball against every opponent they've played this season, except for the season opener against the Redskins, but the Panthers are No. 2 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and No. 3 in average gain allowed per running play. So rookie QB Kyle Orton might need to make more plays in the passing games than he has this season. Only once this season has Orton thrown for more than 150 yards in a game, and part of the reason is that no one beside Pro Bowler Muhsin Muhammad has emerged as a legitimate target.

Defensively, the Bears believe their No. 1 defense (yards and points allowed) can handle the Panthers' weak running game (No. 24 in yards, No. 32 in average gain per rushing play). That will allow them to focus plenty of attention on NFL receiving leader Steve Smith and put pressure on QB Jake Delhomme.

Leaning of the under 34.5 & the Bears +3 (won & won)

TB 39
Atl -6

The Falcons are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL, averaging 179 yards per game. Much of that comes from QB Michael Vick. But there's no doubt that what the Falcons do best is run the football.

Defensively, the Bucs' speed negates some of Vick's play-making ability. Vick rushed for 73 and 81 yards against the Bucs last season, but the Bucs were able to neutralize Warrick Dunn and prevent him from gaining 100 yards on the ground in either game.

Tampa Bay is struggling rushing the football. The Bucs are averaging just 108.8 yards per game and have not rushed for more than 61 yards in the last three games.

QB Chris Simms is improving each week and did not have a turnover for the first time in three starts last week against the Redskins. The Bucs will try to get Cadillac Williams started to keep the pressure off Simms. But if need be, Simms has proven he can win a game with his arm.

When the NFL schedule was released seven months ago, the Falcons could see a tough stretch before their bye week.

Home games against Philadelphia, Minnesota, New England and the New York Jets would be tough. Trips to Buffalo, Seattle and New Orleans wouldn't be easy.

Hurricane Katrina, Chad Pennington's shoulder, J.P. Losman's struggles, Minnesota's nonexistent running game and Donovan McNabb's sports hernia each factored in victories for Atlanta.

So now that the Falcons are coming off an embarrassing effort against Brett Favre and a Green Bay team that entered 1-7, head coach Jim Mora isn't putting a "playoff-like" label on this week's home game with Tampa Bay.

Both teams are 6-3 and tied for second in the NFC South, one game behind Carolina. The Falcons are the only team without a loss in the division. They are 1-0. Carolina is 1-1, New Orleans 1-1 and Tampa Bay 0-1.

Perhaps in an effort to build Michael Vick's confidence, offensive coordinator Greg Knapp has called a lot of downfield passes in the first few possessions in recent weeks. Against Tampa Bay, the best approach is to run first, run second and pass only when targets are open and nearby. Warrick Dunn didn't top 100 yards rushing in the last two games, and T.J. Duckett was underused after sitting out against Miami returning from a sprained ankle against the Packers. Atlanta needs to prove it can dominate the line of scrimmage against the Bucs' physical front, but using Vick on three-, four- or five-step drops isn't wise given the presence of Simeon Rice bringing pressure on the right side.

Defensively, coordinator Ed Donatell must withstand the expected trickery of Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden, who loves to deploy his skill-position players in formations that confuse opponents and cause misalignment. QB Chris Simms can throw deep, but he's also susceptible to holding the ball too long and taking sacks. He went down 11 times in his first two starts and lost both games. The Redskins didn't sack him last week, and Simms won. UT Rod Coleman must return from two invisible games that followed his selection as NFC defensive player of October.

Both teams play five of their seven remaining regular-season games against NFC South opponents, so each is crucial in the playoff picture. The Bucs, who have already dropped a home division game to Car, now go into a hostile road venue hoping young QB Chris Simms can provide enough of a passing threat to open running lanes for rookie RB Carnell Williams. TB knows Atlanta will run the ball as much as possible, so getting production from Williams is essential. Also key is WR Michael Clayton's health (knee). He has struggled to reproduce his rookie numbers, but eventually he needs to step up to provide a threat opposite Joey Galloway. Atl would love to get a lead and pound away on the ground, while the Bucs want to force the game onto the arm of QB Michael Vick.

The absence of the veteran leadership QB Brian Griese provided will be especially apparent in a hostile environment on the road in a game with playoff implications. The Falcons will load up to stop the run on defense while controlling the clock when they have the ball. If Vick avoids turnovers, the Falcons should roll fairly easily.

Leaning on the under 39 & TB + 6 (lost & won)

Det 39
Dal -8

All signs point to Dallas dominating both sides of the ball, so what can Det do to turn the tide in a difficult road assignment? It must start with RB Kevin Jones, and it must start from the opening possession. Det can't afford to fall behind early and ask the offensive line to hold up in pass protection against Dal quick defense. Getting production from Jones and controlling the clock is essential to help the defense as well. Dal likes to set up the play-action pass by pounding away with the running game early. It will be important for the Lions' defense to stuff RBs Julius Jones and Marion Barber. If Det can force long passing situations, it does have playmakers in the secondary who can produce the turnovers the Lions will need.

Det is 1-3 away from home this year, and Dal has the talent advantage on both sides of the ball. The Lions have some rare confidence after last week's win, but as long as the Cowboys avoid significant turnovers, they should win easy.

The Lions can expect the same type of heavy pass rush and blitzes from Dallas they have been getting from most of the teams they have played this season. If they can take advantage of the Cowboys' blitzes, they will have a chance to move the ball; otherwise, they could have big problems. Defensively, they have to try to get to QB Drew Bledsoe early with the pass rush. With DT Shaun Rogers back in the lineup, they will have a better chance of clogging the Dallas running game.

The Cowboys have to establish the run and continue to control the clock. They must also get some easy scores with big plays in the passing game. Defensively, stopping running back Kevin Jones and containing receiver Roy Williams are the keys to victory.

Leaning on Dal -8 & under 39 (won & won)


Phi 41
NYG -7

The question will be asked every week - how will the absence of T.O. affect the Eagles? Phi rushed for 181 yds against Dal, more than in their past 4 games combined. But considering the Giants' secondary is the most vulnerable unit on the team, the Eagles could get pass-happy again, even if QB Donovan McNabb does not play. WR Greg Lewis has proved to be a solid complementary receiver, and rookie Reggie Brown has shown flashes of potential. RB Brian Westbrook is now the team's best playmaker, and the Giants will be wary of his ability as a runner or receiver. Offensively, NY needs to establish early momentum with the run. If the Giants build an early lead, they can wear down the Eagles' defense.

This is a crucial game for the Giants to keep the momentum going in the division and prove they really are among the NFC's elite. NY's balance on offense, combined with Eagles' inability to exploit the Giants' secondary, will give NY a benchmark victory and an important divisional win.

The Eagles ran the ball 36 times in Monday night's loss to the Cowboys. With Mike McMahon replacing Donovan McNabb at quarterback Sunday, the Eagles again will try to run the ball at least 40 percent of the time. What they want most from McMahon is a minimal amount of mistakes. The Giants are second in the NFC in turnovers with 25.

Leaning on the Eagles with the points +7 (lost)

[BaMan]

GL SK, nice write ups!!!

[DJTranks]

GL SK!!

[SK35]

Thanks guys, GL with your plays this week.

Jax -4
Ten 38.5

The Titans would be happy to hand the ball to RBs Chris Brown and Travis Henry as much as possible and control the clock against a Jaguars defense that has had trouble stopping the run. But with Jax boasting a strong pass defense and having little fear of Ten's inexperienced receivers, look for the Jax to stack the line and dare QB Steve McNair to beat them.

The Titans may not have to face RB Fred Taylor, in which case they'll get a big dose of Greg Jones, who they regard as a threat but don't expect to do as much freelancing as Taylor. The Titans will hope to slow Jones, get pressure on QB Byron Leftwich and keep the Jaguars receivers in front of them, minimizing big plays and making Jacksonville drive the ball. Offensively they will look to get RB Chris Brown going, then use play action. They may get some favorable one-on-one matchups if the Jags don't fear a receiving corps that has several key players coming off injuries.
With Fred Taylor listed as doubtful and likely to miss his second straight game, sidelined, the Jaguars are likely to stress the pass and try to exploit the Titans' two rookie corners, Pacman Jones and Reynaldo Hill. If the Jaguars get the lead, then they're likely to try to run Greg Jones, who has emerged as the leading runner in Taylor's absence.

Leaning on the under 38.5 & Ten +4 (lost & won)

NO 46
NE -9.5

The Saints are one of a handful of teams facing fewer than 30 pass plays (26.6) per game. That's because they have a habit of falling behind and opponents run at will (139.3 yds per game & 4.4 yds per carry). The good news is the Patriots have struggled to run the ball. RB Corey Dillons isn't seeing the same gaping holes he enjoyed last season, but the offensive line is protecting QB Tom Brady well. The game could hinge on the ability of the Saints' defense to avoid big plays and get the ball back for an offense that should be able to sustain drives. NE much-maligned secondary will be under attack, and it will be interesting to see how much new RB Anthony Thomas is worked into the mix with Antowain Smith and Aaron Stecker.

Even without two-time Pro Bowl running back Deuce McAllister, the Saints will try to run the ball against the Patriots on Sunday - because almost everyone else has. The Patriots are allowing 123.1 yards a game on the ground and rank 23rd in the league, so the Saints will try to pound them with Antowain Smith and maybe recently acquired running back Anthony Thomas. The Saints rank 12th in rushing offense with 122.4 yards per game despite McAllister's absence.

The Patriots don't want to repeat the script from last week when the offense flopped around for almost three full quarters before hitting its stride and the defense allowed tons of yardage but averted disaster by making some big plays. The Patriots ideally would like to strike early since the Saints have been outscored 72-37 in the first quarter this season. They also would like to apply steady pressure on QB Aaron Brooks, who has been sacked 26 times, third-most in the league.

It's not difficult to envision the Saints making this a much more difficult game than most anticipate. They should be mentally refreshed following a much-needed bye week and have the passing game to take advantage of the Patriots' secondary. But NE knows it must take care of business at home the rest of the way, so it won't overlook this game.

Leaning on NO with the points (won)

Oak 43
Was -6

Both offenses are known for their big-play receivers, but it could be a running back who has the biggest impact on the game. While Was has slipped to the middle of the pack in run defense this season, RB Lamont Jordan continues to look more comfortable in Oak's offense - he's got 1039 rushing and receiving yds, plus 9 TDs. Jordan is the key to setting up the play-action pass that will leave Was secondary vulnerable. And for the Redskins, RB Clinton Portis, an important blocker and receiver, is looking for another big game after rushing for 144 yds Sunday. The Raiders limit opponents to about 4 yds per carry, but they have had trouble settling on starting linebackers.

The Raiders will look to catch the Redskins for big plays on the blitz, particularly early in the game, so they can get Washington to ease off on the pressure. Opportunities early against Denver slipped away, and the Broncos got off to a 23-0 lead. Defensively, Raiders will attempt to seal off the run - the Redskins ran surprisingly well against a stout Tampa run defense - and keep Mark Brunell pinched in the pocket.

The Redskins are coming off a surprisingly strong running game against a stout Tampa Bay defense, so look for coach Joe Gibbs to keep feeding the ball to RB Clinton Portis. QB Mark Brunell and WR Santana Moss have cooled in recent games, but they could find success against a fairly inexperienced Raiders secondary.

Since the Redskins defensive line probably won't get the better of the Raiders offensive line, assistant head coach/defense Gregg Williams will probably try to win his matchup in the secondary. However, that unit had the worst game of his two-year tenure last week. CBs Shawn Springs and Walt Harris need to come up big against Raiders WR Randy Moss and Jerry Porter, especially if FS Sean Taylor is absent again.

Leaning on the Raiders +6 & over 43 (won & lost)

Mia 35.5
Cle -2

The Browns have yet to score more than 20 pts in 4 home games, so they need to make sure this remains a low-scoring affair. That shouldn't be too difficult against the one-dimensional Dolphins offense, but the Browns must be wary of giving up the big pass play when playing to stop the run. Mia defense is still getting used to coach Nick Saban's new scheme, although DE/LB Jason Taylor still has the ability to wreak havoc on an offensive game plan. Cle ideally wants to use RB Reuben Droughns on early downs to prevent Taylor from charging hard at QB Trent Dilfer on long passing downs. The game might turn into a battle of field goals, and the Browns' Phil Dawson and the Dolphins' Olindo Mare are two of the league's best.

It sounds simple, but the Browns are determined to start strong against the Dolphins and not let up. Last week they led the Steelers 7-0, missed a scoring chance the next time they had the ball and then gave up 24 straight points.

"When we understand what it takes, things will start clicking, but right now it doesn't seem like we understand," running back Reuben Droughns said. "You have to make the plays that are coming toward you. But we have to believe in ourselves first. If we don't believe in ourselves, then obviously we're going to lose more games. It seems like we figure something will go wrong. It's not supposed to be like that."

Protecting Trent Dilfer will be a key, as the team's pass blocking has been spotty. He has been sacked 18 times, although he wasn't sacked in three games.

Because of the uncertainty at quarterback and Cleveland's 28th-ranked run defense (132.7-yard average), expect the Dolphins to give the Browns heavy doses of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Brown is averaging 5.5 yards a carry in the past seven games. New England did an excellent job stopping Williams, limiting him to 13 yards on 11 carries.

Defensively, Cleveland will have to provide better protection for QB Trent Dilfer, who faced heavy pressure in last Sunday's 34-21 loss to Pittsburgh. In particular, Browns LT L.J. Shelton will be severely challenged by the speed of Dolphins DE/OLB Jason Taylor, who has registered a sack in two consecutive games and is tied with Kevin Carter for the team lead with four.

Despite the team from South Florida playing its first cold-weather game of the season, the Dolphins have the better overall ingredients for a low-scoring Nov game. They have the superior running game and the superior defense, while Cle has struggled all season to get either of those facets working.

Leaning on Mia +2 and under 35.5 (lost & won)

Pitt -3.5
Bal 34

As always, the Steelers will try to run first and foremost, but they also believe whoever is at quarterback will have to loosen up the defense by completing some passes early, including one or two deep ones. Defenses are ganging up to stop the run against them. On defense, the Steelers do not believe Kyle Boller can beat them with his arm. They will blitz, but it'll be a run-blitz as they focus their attention on stopping Jamal Lewis and Chester Taylor.

The Ravens know they will not be able to run on the Steelers because they have yet to manage a productive ground game against anybody this season. The Steelers rank third in the NFL against the run and should be able to stop running back Jamal Lewis with their front seven. That means the only way the Ravens can score - and win - is to exploit the Pittsburgh secondary. The Ravens have to go deep to tight end Todd Heap and receiver Derrick Mason. If they decide to go that route, their offensive line has to give quarterback Kyle Boller enough time to throw.

Defensively, the Ravens handled Pittsburgh's running game in the previous meeting by stacking the box. That has to be the strategy this time, especially if the Steelers are starting Tommy Maddox at quarterback. Pittsburgh won't put the ball in his hands too often, and the Ravens know that. Look for the Ravens to run blitz heavily to crack the highly-respected Steelers offensive line.

When the Ravens almost beat the Steelers 3 weeks ago, they still had ambitions of crawling back in the AFC playoff picture. That does not apply here, and the lure of playing spoiler won't be enough to overcome Pitt's physical edge and momentum.

Leaning on Pitt -3.5 & under 34 (lost & won)

[SK35]

Indi -5.5
Cin 47.5

Other than a win against Chi, Cin hasn't defeated a team with a winning record. To convince themselves, much less public, that they are a legitimate contender, the Bengals need to at least give the Colts a tough fight. The first step is getting off to a strong start offensively. An early lead and a few long drives would also help protect the defense. Indi also thrives on leads defensively, when it is able to unleash DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis in the pass rush.

Control the football on offense and limit big plays on defense.

The Colts can't afford to turn the ball over against Cincinnati. Indianapolis must attempt to control the tempo of the game and help the defense by keeping the Bengals offense off the field.

Defensively, the Colts must be able to hold up against the run and still keep a talented corps of receivers in check. Not allowing the Bengals offense to get into a rhythm will be key.

The Bengals want to have their offense on the field as much as possible in the hopes of keeping the ball out of Peyton Manning's and Edgerrin James' hands as much as possible. The Bengals think they can run the ball and could hit come big pass plays against Indianapolis' secondary. Against any defense that plays cover-2 pass defense, there could be some room to run. Again, the more attempts tailback Rudi Johnson has the better for the Bengals. On defense, the Bengals will try to make the Colts one-dimensional on offense. It's a matter of picking their poison. The sense around the Bengals is they will do whatever they can to control James and the Colts ground game and put their hope in a pass defense that has 20 interceptions.

The Colts answered their critics with a resounding victory over nemesis NE 2 games ago. The Bengals are still waiting for that benchmark victory, which won't come in this matchup. They have yet to prove they can stop a strong running game, which will set Manning up for more man coverage to pick on downfield.

Leaning on the Colts & under (won & lost)

Sea -12
SF 42

The 49ers are progressing, getting more comfortable with coach Mike Nolan's defensive scheme. DT Bryant Young is having a strong season and needs to provide a push up the middle - which is the only questionable part of the Seahawks' stout offensive line. If LT Walter Jones and LG Steve Hutchinson are controlling the line of scrimmage, SF is in trouble. RB Shaun Alexander is a great cutback runner, while the 49ers still miss assignments that could create those opportunities. All that leads to the need for a good game from RBs Kevan Barlow and Frank Gores. The longer SF holds the ball, the less time the defense is on the field.

The 49ers have been a much better team at home this season, playing competitive football and earning both victories at Monster Park. In order for the 49ers to succeed, they must use their threat of the running game to open things up for the passing attack. The 49ers are sure to see eight defenders in the box. They have to be able to take advantage of some one-on-one matchups on the outside, though neither WRs Brandon Lloyd nor Arnaz Battle has shown an ability to make consistent plays against single coverage. Battle will probably miss Sunday's game with a knee injury, and backup Johnnie Morton has not shown great playmaking ability, either. The 49ers' best hope on offense appears to be rookie RB Frank Gore. He has performed very well while getting about half the carries as starter Kevan Barlow. But Gore has shown a much more effective running style than the ultra-talented Barlow. Gore is good at finding a crease in the opposing defense and hitting the hole hard. Meanwhile, Barlow does a little too much dancing for the liking of the team's coaching staff. When he hesitates in the hole, it allows fast defenses to swarm to him. Still, coach Mike Nolan has been impressed with Barlow's play. He said he has noticed vast improvements in his play from what he saw on film last season. "I think (RB coach) Bishop Harris has done an outstanding job with Kevan Barlow," Nolan said. "Kevan is twice the back he was last year, if not more than that. And he's getting better all the time. It's unfortunate that Kevan really hasn't reached his potential as a player. Even three years ago when he had one of his better seasons, he's a better back (now) than that."

Seattle's offensive and defensive lines match up quite well against the 49ers. The Seahawks should be able to run the ball effectively with RB Shaun Alexander and even RB Maurice Morris, who topped 100 yards during a blowout victory over Houston earlier in the season. The Seahawks will find out whether RT Sean Locklear can handle 49ers OLB Julian Peterson without help. Locklear shut down Rams DE Leonard Little last week. This is another good challenge for the second-year pro from North Carolina State. Defensively, the Seahawks should have little trouble given the 49ers' obvious problems at the quarterback position. Seattle ranks second in the league with 30 sacks.

When fighting for a division title and possibly home-field advantage, there are no "gimme" games. With the 49ers up next, Sea coach Mike Holmgren will have his team focused and ready to take care of business. Barring a sloppy performance, the Seahawks have little to fear.

Leaning on the Seahawks and over. (lost & won)

Buf 42.5
SD -11

Buffalo has struggled against the run all season while SD RB Tomlinson should have fresh legs coming off the bye week. That means the Bills better get a strong performance from their own running game. The Chargers are allowing just 79.6 rushing yds per game and 3.5 yds per carry, so RB McGahee must hit the holes hard and avoid the "dancing" that has drawn him criticism at times. As bad as Buf run defense has been, the secondary has been strong. The Bills have held some quality tight ends in check this season, but SD Antonio Gates is another challenge altogether. Gates will get his receptions; it's limiting the damage he does after the catch that will be key for Buffalo.

The question for this week is can the Bills defense take this show on the road and into Qualcomm Stadium?

Buffalo is winless in four road games this year, and a big reason is that its defense has developed a reputation for being tough at home and soft on the road.

Buffalo has 25 sacks, but only seven have come on the road.

Buffalo has 12 interceptions, none on the road.

Buffalo has 19 takeaways overall, but only three on the road.

It's pretty basic for Buffalo - slow down RB LaDainian Tomlinson or go home with a loss. Tomlinson has accounted for 1,099 total yards while accounting for 18 touchdowns, including three by passing. The Bills are coming off their most complete defensive showing in last Sunday's win over Kansas City, but they can't expect to collect six sacks and four takeaways again unless they shut down San Diego's 10th-ranked running game and get QB Drew Brees into a passing mode. The Bills rank 31st in the NFL against the run and have allowed a league-most 13 rushes of 20 yards or longer. And while Buffalo wants to counter Tomlinson with RB Willis McGahee, taking the heat off either Kelly Holcomb or J.P. Losman at quarterback, that's a tall task, as well. The Chargers rank No. 1 in run stuffing at 79.6 yards per game. They've allowed only four 20-plus yard runs. Buffalo has to hit some big plays in the passing game and get WRs Lee Evans and Eric Moulds involved early or everything is likely to ground to a halt. Buffalo is 0-4 on the road and it's a no fluke. San Diego's 5-4 record is a fluke - its four losses are by a total of just 12 points.

Why wouldn't the Chargers run the ball with gusto? Give it to Tomlinson and step out if his way. Not only is Tomlinson rested after the bye, but the Bills can't stop the run. They are allowing an eye-opening 150 yards per game, which is ranked ahead of only the Texans.

After facing 4 teams in 5 weeks that were coming off a bye, SD finally get to know that feeling themselves. They are refreshed after a difficult first half. Buff poor run defense will try to contain Tomlinson and force Brees to have a strong game.

Leaning on the Chargers & over. (won & won)

[SK35]

Jets 40
Den -13

Again try to establish the run with a still-banged-up Curtis Martin and a patchwork offensive line. More rollouts and bootlegs might help disguise the fact that QB Brooks Bollinger, much like injured starter Chad Pennington, doesn't have a big arm, a fact that was driven home when he underthrew Laveranues Coles in the end zone, and his pass was picked off by Carolina CB Ken Lucas. Perhaps Bollinger will have better luck against Denver's rookie CBs, Darrent Williams and Domonique Foxworth.

The defense will have its collective hands full with Jake Plummer, who has 13 TD passes and only three interceptions this season, and is making much better decisions than he did earlier in his career. RBs Mike Anderson (669 yards) and Tatum Bell (606 yards) have both been quite productive for the Broncos, who use a zone blocking scheme for their running game. Veteran WR Rod Smith (47 catches, four TDs) still is going strong at age 35.

If the Broncos lose this game, they will be vilified in Colorado. The Jets are 2-7 and don't match up well against the Broncos. New York has had problems stopping the run and Denver is one of the best running teams in the NFL. The Jets can't pass the ball well, and the Broncos' weakness on defense might be that it will give up passing yards.

Even worse for the Jets would be if Denver can get an early lead. Then the Broncos could run the ball and let the defense put pressure on Jets quarterback Brooks Bollinger.

While the Broncos have done exceptionally well at home this season, winning every game in Denver, the Jets have also played poorly on the road. It's a long road trip for a team already out of the playoff hunt, so it's crucial for the Jets to get off to a strong start and build some early momentum. The Broncos will certainly dare QB Bollinger to beat them through the air, and WRs Coles and McCareins need to make a few plays. Most important, the Jets need to find a way to move the chains and give their defense a breather. Den will keep running the ball with RBs Anderson and Bell until the defense finallly wears down, a game plan several opponents have used with success. If Anderson and Bell are ripping off a lot of yds, the Jets will be hard-pressed to force QB Plummer into the mistakes they desperately need.

The odds are stacked heavily against the Jets. They are taking an inexperienced QB into a tough road environment with a running game that will struggle against one of the league's best run defenses. The Broncos play 4 of their final 6 games on the road and know they musta take care of business at home to reap the rewards come playoff time.

With the Broncos strong running game to chew out the clock at the end, I'll take the Jets with 13 pts. (lost)

KC -6.5
Hous 44

To avoid getting run out of their own building the Texans' defense is going to have to stop Chiefs RB Larry Johnson. Even without LT Willie Roaf, KC offensive line has too many talented veterans for the Texans' front seven alone. Expect Hous to creep an eighth defender into the box, most likely rookie SS Brown. FS Marcus Coleman will have his hands full trying to provide help over the top in pass defense while also keeping an eye on TE Gonzalez. But the Texans' best defense is their own running game. To keep the game respectable - much less winnable - they need production from the running game. RB Domanick Davis has missed 2 games with a hamstring injury, so it might be up to Jonathan Wells or Vernand Morency.

The Texans will be looking for big plays everywhere this week. A 102-yard interception return by Marcus Coleman last season was what propelled the Texans to a victory. The Texans haven't had an interception in three games, and the defense hasn't forced a fumble in the past two.

Last week when the special teams shortened the field position by forcing turnovers on punt coverage, the offense turned it into 10 points. Each time the field is shortened for the offense, Houston has capitalized. Those plays are still few and far between though.

The Chiefs have a real good chance of running the ball for a second straight week against the only rush defense that is ranked lower than Buffalo's. The trouble is, running alone won't get it done for the Chiefs, who got 132 yards from Larry Johnson alone last week in a 14-3 loss. Kansas City has to hold off the pass rush of Pro Bowl DE Gary Walker and give Trent Green the time he didn't have in Buffalo to get into some passing rhythm.

Defensively, the Chiefs have to get to QB David Carr like everyone else in the league has during this 46-sack season. If they do, they'll hold up better against an ailing Andre Johnson than they did a year ago when he had 96 yards on only four catches, including a killer grab in the drive for the winning field goal.

The Chiefs' final six regular-season games are all against playoff contenders, so they aren't about to overlook the final easy "W" on their schedule. KC offensive line will control the game from the outset, and Johnson's solid running, along with a strong passing offense, will be too much for Houston to handle.

Leaning on the over 44 (won)

Min 44.5
GB -4.5

Despite their win Sunday at NY, don't expect the Vikings to suddenly become an overwhelming force on the road. Turnovers will play a major role between teams that have struggled to move the ball most of the season, and the QBs will be at the forefront. Vikings QB Brad Johnson is a veteran familiar with GB in Nov, but he lacks the arm strength to truly stretch the defense. The Packers need help on offense, so CBs Al Harris and Ahmad Carroll need to take advantage of any interception opportunities. Packers QB Brett Farve, who has precious few healthy weapons left, could certainly use the boost from good field position.

The Vikings are coming off an upset victory over the host New York Giants, but the Packers also will have plenty of confidence, not to mention the home-field advantage, in Monday night's game.

The Packers, who had one victory before surprising the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday at the Georgia Dome, held a 17-0 halftime lead on the Vikings but were outscored 23-3 in the second half of their Oct. 23 game at the Metrodome.

The Vikings will need far more offensive productivity than they got from Brad Johnson and Co. against the Giants - no touchdowns and 137 total yards - and certainly can't assume that punt and kickoff returns for touchdowns will become the norm.

But going against Green Bay defensive coordinator Jim Bates' unit won't be easy. Bates' defense caused the Falcons all kinds of troubles, and the coordinator certainly will attempt to take a page from the Giants' game plan when he watches the film.

That will mean the Vikings can expect the Packers to go all out to stop the run and dare Johnson to beat them with his arm. The Vikings offensive line will have to do a better job of blocking and open up some lanes for either Mewelde Moore or Michael Bennett or the lack of productivity likely will continue. Of utmost importance is that the Vikings can use the play-action pass as a credible threat.

Defensively, the Vikings gave up 405 yards to the Giants but got key stops when they were needed. This was in part due to the ineptitude of New York quarterback Eli Manning, who tossed four interceptions. Such a performance certainly can't be expected from Brett Favre on a Monday night in Green Bay.

The Vikings will need to get continued solid play from the defensive backfield, including new starting corner Brian Williams, and the front four will have to get consistent pressure on Favre to help matters.

Although it might be wishful thinking that the Packers would have the aching trio of WR Robert Ferguson, TE David Martin and RB Tony Fisher all back in action Monday, the offense still needs to make some hay from the outset in a critical game between archrivals. The Packers scored on their opening possession Sunday for only the second time this season and didn't let up in rolling up 33 points, their second-highest output. Of course, building a sizable halftime lead (17-0) didn't work in the first meeting with the Vikings last month, but an encore performance out of the chute should be good enough to keep Minnesota down in this one since Daunte Culpepper won't be in uniform Monday. Long drives also are to be had by the Packers offense, which will put its No. 2 league ranking for third-down conversions (45.3 percent) up against the dismal last-place success rate (45.0 percent) of the Vikings defense. With the unimposing Brad Johnson at quarterback for Minnesota, the Packers can concentrate on what they do best on defense and devote most of their efforts toward stopping RB Michael Bennett, a non-factor off the bench in the first meeting. The Wisconsin native, though, is starting again and has three 100-yard games against the Packers.

Leaning on the under 44.5 (won)

[DJTranks]

Great writeups SK!

GL w/ the rest!!

[SK35]

GL to you too, DJ.

Taking
Stl -9.5 (LOST)
over 49.5 (WON)
Chi +3 (WON)
under 34.5 (WON)
TB +6 (WON)
under 39 (LOST)
under 39 Det/Dal (WON)
under 47.5 Indi/Cin (LOST)
Phi +7 (LOST)
Ten +4 (WON)
under 38.5 (LOST)
Oak +6 (WON)
Jets +13 (LOST)

7-6 for today

[SK35]

15-10 in the morning (leaning)

[SK35]

MNF

Taking Min +6.5 & under 44 (WON & WON)

[BaMan]

GL tonight!

[DJTranks]

GL tonight SK!!

[JerseyJ]

Very rare that the same scenario happens both times when divisional teams play twice (Min and Under earlier this season against the Pack).


Agree with you on the Under though. GL

[SK35]

I know Min offense sucks, but the line movement gave me the courage to throw it in. I wouldn't take Min with 4 pts though, but it move to 6.5 while I asked everybody around me go with GB. Like I always do on MNF, go against them. LOL

[SK35]

9-6 this week.

[DJTranks]

Great hits!!