Week 9 Early Thoughts

[mikemac]

Hello everybody! I see a lot of value out there in week 9. I looked at the schedule and projected my own lines on this weeks slate of games. I then looked up the actual opening lines for week 9 and compared them to my projected lines. Here are my results (team and difference from my line to the actual opening line, + represents "adding" 6.5 to my number, - represents "subtracting" 6.5 from my number.

Vikings +7 (so I had the Vikings @ +3)
Cowboys -6 (so I had the Cowboys @ -3) *Wrong team favored*
Chiefs -4 *Wrong team favored*
49ers +3.5
Texans +2.5
Ravens +2.5
Packers +2.5
Lions -2
Panthers -2
Steelers -2
Seahawks -2
Broncos +1
Buccs +1
NE +0.5

To me these results have just reinforced the fact that the books like to "shade" favorites, becuase they expect the public to lean towards the favorites (as shown by the Panthers and Falcons lines). Yes those teams should be favored this week, but not by two scores.

Obviously these numbers are relative in nature. For example, many would have the Giants -7 over the Vikings and come up with a much lower difference from the opening line. My perception is that the Vikings are hot off a win, with Brad Johnson looking better than Culpepper did all year, and basically they look like a new rejevunated team. I see them giving the Giants a fight.

Anyone disagree with what I came up with. I welcome all negative feedback.
:thumbs:

[Fitchian]

Why are the Chiefs getting points in Buffalo? Is priest out or something?

[mikemac]

Fitchian - Holmes is listed as day to day with a mild concussion. Vermiel says "there is no timetable on his return". I am sure we will know as we get closer to sunday.

Why are the Chiefs underdogs at Buffalo? Good Question. I guess it has something to do with the Bills coming off a bye, and the uncertainty of Priest Holmes. Even with those factors, I still believe the Chiefs should be favored in this spot. I see little to no drop off from the KC Offense, with Johnson starting. I will be waiting till later in the week to make my play. It is always nice to get as much info as possible, before placing a play.

[nikolausuw]

Hey....thought I would chime in with my two cents on the Vikings/Giants game........

The Giants defense although lowly in the rankings right now (25th) is getting better. Playing the 49ers didn't hurt their numbers of course but they did shutout a decent offense in washington (overrated yes but not pushovers) and held Denver, one of the top 3 offenses in the league to 23 points. Most importantly for this weekend, they have tightened up a secondary that was getting torched early in the season, and have given up less than 100 ypg thru the air in the last contests. Combine this with the Vikings inability to run the ball (23rd in the leauge with only a single hundred yard game out of their backs) and I envision the Giants getting a good pass rush on a less than agile Brad Johnson and forcing him into making mistakes. One good game against the Lions doesn't sell me that the vikings are better off w/o Culpepper. And finally, I look at the Vikings on the road this year and see an 0-4 record. They've been outscored on the road 133-34, having lost by an average of nearly 25 points in those games with the smallest margin of defeat being 20 point by Atlanta. I just can't see the Vikes hanging close in this one. Their run defense is giving up over 125 ypg (good for 26th in the league) and Barber should be able to take advantage and this will make things easier on the steadily improving Eli Manning who should have time against an anemic Vikings pass rush (less than 2 sacks/game).

Thats all I got.......just throwing my opinion out there....any all feedback or disagreement is welcome

[DJTranks]

GL this week Mike!!

[puppet1111]

I THINK YOU MEAN WEEK 10!!!!!!!!!!!!
9 WAS LAST WEEK.

[mikemac]

Week 10 Plays

Chiefs ML +120
49ers +13
Broncos -3
Redskins ML +103
Vikings +9.5 -111
Patriots -2.5 -120
Colts -17 -108

All Risking 5 units

I would dig up my second half record, but it would be to depressing.

Puppet - thanks for pointing that out...dont believe i did that...lol

[birdsfan5]

GL Mike

[mikemac]

Rams ML +238 5 units to win 11.8 units

[mikemac]

Panthers -9 +108 Risking 5 units

Thanks birdsfan...GL to you!!!

Thanks DJ...BOL buddy!

GL to the rest of you guys!:thumbs:

[mikemac]

Redskins -1 -108 Risking 5 units