Week of 11-6 & 11-7 NFL

[WildBillPicks7]

Here's my weekend NFL plays....GLTA

WB:thumbs:

Sunday, November 6


NFL GAME OF YEAR: Eagles +2 (10 units) system play 100% this year 82 % since 2002, when a team loses and is an underdog after giving up more than 40 pts the previous week...Dog in this series is also 90% play.

Saints +3 (1 unit) Bears in for a shocker on the road..

Over 36 Houston/Jacksonville (3 units) Both teams should put up points on the ground and air ways.

Over 37 1/2 Vikings/Lions (1 unit) Brad Johnson might spark something in the air as well as Garcia for the Lions.

Added play 11/3/05

Carolina -1 (3 units) Panthers have won last 4 straight up vs Tampa Bay.

[DJTranks]

GL WB!!

[Daws1089]

GL wildbill

[WildBillPicks7]

Thanks DJ & Daws...GL to you as well this week...


Garcia is listed as out for the Lion Tilt and enter Joey Harrington...Wasn't there a gal years ago named joey Harrington that was in Playboy? LMAO!!

Still think that game will go over the 37 or 36, it don't matter...

WB:thumbs:

[patsfan]

I liked the Phili pick before this tread. GL with your picks, you've had good success this year, until last week, so I'm expecting you to bouch back nicely. On your tail.

:thumbs:

[WildBillPicks7]

Thanks Pats... Yep last week was a disaster...I had circled the Pats/Colts match up last week as a potential GOY until I saw the Eagles as dogs to the Skins...

I like the Patriots Monday night too so I'm adding them as a 5 unit play +3 1/2....Time for the Unbeaten to go down in flames as they have many times before and an underdog has not won on MNF in a few weeks...or has any of them won?

Patriots +3 1/2 (5 units)

Teaser 6 pts: Patriots +9 1/2 & over 41 (5 units)

GL Pats!!

WB:thumbs:

[BaMan]

hope you hit GOY and Pat's GL!!!!!!!!

[Griswold]

[i]I like the Patriots Monday night too so I'm adding them as a 5 unit play +3 1/2....Time for the Unbeaten to go down in flames as they have many times before and an underdog has not won on MNF in a few weeks...or has any of them won? [/B]


MNF
Dogs are 5-3 ATS and 3-5 SU
There has only been one Home Dog this year on MNF and that was week 1 when ATL beat Philly straight up.

GL WildBill

[stugots]

The Philly game is the game to lay the wood down. I like that play ALOT, IMO. GL with you plays.

[WildBillPicks7]

Thanks for the info Griswold... That's right the Falcons are the only home dog to win. :thumbs: (Pittsburgh, Redskins & Falcons, hmmm....) Let's add the Patriots!! YES!!

Thanks also Stu & BaMan!! Let's dew ett!!!

WB:thumbs:

[patsfan]

You still like the Eagles pick with Terrel Owens out.

[gopherbroke]

Depending on what happens the rest of the week, I'm on those totals, WB! I likey.

GLTY!

[WildBillPicks7]

Originally posted by patsfan
You still like the Eagles pick with Terrel Owens out. Doubtful isn't meaning he's out....TO changes like the daily newspaper headlines...LOL... I like Reggie Brown, Greg Lewis, LJ Smith and the fact that Westbrook had a good game for the Eagles vs Denver even though they got smoked. Washington held their own at Denver, however, this game is always down to the last quarter when Gibbs was HC of the Skins years ago and it should go the same route. I like Cortez to win the game for the Eagles 19-17...

GL Pats!! :thumbs:

WB

[DJTranks]

I will take a look at the Eagles myself!

System you use is interesting- hope it works out!

[Stifler's Mom]

GL with the Eagles.

I feel strongly the other way. Until they start running the football, they aren't going nowhere.

Love getting less than -3 with the Skins at home vs a team that hasn't done a damn thing but beat up on San Francisco.

At least one of us will win, lol :thumbs:

[WildBillPicks7]

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom
GL with the Eagles.

I feel strongly the other way. Until they start running the football, they aren't going nowhere.

Love getting less than -3 with the Skins at home vs a team that hasn't done a damn thing but beat up on San Francisco.

At least one of us will win, lol :thumbs: GL Stif...

Washington 0-11 getting less than 3 at home...last 11 and they opened I believe at +1, Philly was favored...Wizeguys I'll almost guarantee you are waiting to pounce on this number...

WB :cool:

[WildBillPicks7]

added play above:

Carolina -1 (3 units)

GLTA

WB

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by WildBillPicks7
Wizeguys I'll almost guarantee you are waiting to pounce on this number...



They already did! Now Skins are -3... GL with your plays!:gulp:

[yomonte]

GL Bill. After reading your thread, it seems this MNF makes only the second time the home team is a dog. Week 1 Atl. Now NE makes it the second time. And other than Atl winning SU as a dog, Pitt did in week 5 against SD. I played Indy as soon as I seen it. Too many woes in NE for me and Peyton is getting it done. The more pressure, the better he is. Just a small bet for me and I lose more than I win, LOL, so GL chief.

[GameBreaker]

GL with your picks Bill.

Like your NE pick and the line could hit +4. Already there in a couple spots.

I agree with Stiffler and will probably be on the other side of your Philly pick.

I ran those system numbers you were talking about. Seems like the system was stronger many years ago. Here's what I saw in the last 5+ seasons in this situation (since 1999):

Dogs: 38-32-1 ATS (54.3%) (Cover average by -0.3 ppg)

Dogs of +3 or less: 8-7-1. Dogs of +5 or less : 9-13-1 (40.9%)

Teams with problems seem to have a tendency to perform better at home off the bad loss. Using those numbers above:

Away Dogs: 21-21-0 and Away Dogs of +5 or less: 3-6-0


I'm wondering if it's human nature to still see the Eagles as NFC Champs and Wshington as NFC chumps? But in reality the Eagles got blown out on the road at Dallas, won a fortunate one vs the Chargers at home, then followed it up with another blowout loss on the road. Now they travel for a 2nd straight week and the most important piece of their puzzle isn't 100% (McNabb). I expect Owens to play by all accounts.

Then there's the matchups. Philly has abandoned their running game which makes the health of McNabb even more important. Regardless, McNabb will be facing the #1 pass defense (total yards allowed), and #4 in yards per pass. I think it's a bad matchup. Te Redskins run D has sprung leaks but I'm not sure Philly is a good fit to take advantage.

Defensively the Eagles aren't right. #25 in yards allowed, #20 yards/rush, #27 in yards/pass, #21 in sacks, and #24 in points allowed per game.

I think the whole +40 points allowed thing points to an emotional edge a team gets by being embarrassed. With Washington off a similar blowout loss I think that whole thing is a wash.


My 2 cents. Regardless of what happens in this one I hope we all have extra cash in our pockets come late Monday night!

[patsfan]

Originally posted by yomonte
Too many woes in NE for me and Peyton is getting it done. The more pressure, the better he is.

Hey Yo,

You were talking about Brady right...."the more pressure, the better he is" Manning folded under the pressure in Foxboro last two times the pressure was at it's highest.

[WildBillPicks7]

Thanks HomeDawg..GL with your plays this week... :thumbs:

Best of luck yo...You always make sense with your plays! :thumbs:

Appreciate the insight Gamebreaker...Very valuable info you have..:thumbs:

Also looking at this year's teams that gave up 40 points and what they did the next week straight up and ATS.

Week 1, Arizona lost to NYG 42-19 @ NY
Week 2, Arizona -1 to Rams, lost 17-12 (0-1 ATS)
Week 2, SF loses 42-3 to Philly
Week 3, SF +6 1/2 to Dallas, lose 34-31 (1-1 ATS)
Week 3, Giants lose 45-23 to SD
Week4, Giants win 44-24 -3 vs St Louis (2-1 ATS)
Week 4, San Diego beats New England 41-17
Week 5, New England +2 1/2 to Atlanta wins 31-28 (3-1 ATS)
Week 5, Green Bay beats New Orleans 52-3
Week 5, St Louis -3 to Seattle, loses 37-31 (3-2 ATS)
Week 6, New Orleans +5 1/2 to Atlanta Covers 34-31 (4-2 ATS)
Week 6, Seattle beats Houston 42-10
Week 6, Indy beats St Louis 45-28
Week 7, St Louis -5 beats New Orleans 28-17 (5-2 ATS)
Week 7, Houston +14 1/2 Loses 38-21 to Indy (5-3 ATS)
Week 7, Washington beats SF 52-18
Week 8, SF +11 beats Tampa 15-10 (6-3 ATS)
Week 9, Denver beats Philly 49-21

Year to date 66.67% if a team gives up 40 points and loses has covered 6 of 9 games this year.

Food for thought...

GLTA

WB
:beer2:

[birdsfan5]

GL WB

[DJTranks]

Cant' wait for the NE game- going to take a look myself at that one!

[WildBillPicks7]

Hey Birds? I have a feeling tonight we're going to start chanting this name soon for the Birds "Reggie, Reggie, Reggie!!"" hehehe....

There is a lot of excitement and adrenaline flowing in the Eagles for this evenings action....I'm in DC now and on my way to tail gate..Look for me at the 50 yard line behind the Eagles Bench wearing a Black Shirt with an Eagle on It....next to a Blonde!!LMAO!!

GL DJ..Love the Patriots!!

WB:thumbs:

[WildBillPicks7]

Well Reggie got his shot, too bad Donovan McNabb can't get that offense going. The Skin's defense did cause some problems for him, however, "We played good tonight and some players stepped up" as Donovan McNabb said after the game, is a lot of farking bullsheet...Donovan can't own up to his poor performances and many a time he did this shit with Syracuse. His true colors came to the forefront last night as he just couldn't get it done in the prime areas he had opportunities for. Their running game as well has been abandoned for some un-mentionable reason. They have a fullback and you would think he'd be able to block and help BW find some holes, however this offensive line is busy back peddling to block for D Mac rather than moving forward to blow open holes. Coach Reid needs to get back to the drawing board or as someone mentioned before, the Eagles ain't gonna make the playoffs.

Losing 17-10 feels worse than a bad beat having watched that game from beginning to finish and Joe Theisman reminds me how much I despised him ever since his days as QB for the Fighting Irish. Mr Patrick said it best last night is all I'm gonna say.

The eagles :puke: :puke: :puke: ...missed fumble recovering opportunities and bad judgement calls on trying to have reviews which cost them timeouts and another review opportunity in the game in the second half.

Let's hope the Patriots get to Manning tonight. Time for the last unbeaten in the NFL to go down this evening.

Come on Teddy Brushi, cause some havoc tonight.

Plus I need the "D" for the Patriots to give me some points so I can win in FFL...LMAO...

GO PATRIOTS!! (both plays previously posted)

Patriots +3 1/2 (5 units)

Teaser 6 pts: Patriots +9 1/2 & over 41 (5 units)



GLTA

WB:thumbs: