cavorca12
10-31-2005, 05:16 PM
I haven't posted at all this year, but I have been paying attention every week to all you guys (especially xerri's college football). Anyway, I was going to start posting next week, but I am going to start with this MNF game.
Before I start with my thoughts, I'd just want to say that I am aware of the millions of reasons why the Steelers should win this game handily, but the line and public percentage has gotten to the point where I'm really thinking about the Ravens.
My thoughts:
1) Every thinks only the Steelers will show up for MNF. You know the Ravens will be pumped and ready to play too. I know something like %80 is on the Steelers, but I don't really prescribe to the %80 rule of fading the public. It all depends on the game, but I do think the public is underestimating how the Ravens will respond.
2) Whether or not this actually has significance or not, I'm sure the books will try their darndest not to get railed 2 weeks in a row on MNF. MNF is also the last chance for bettors to increase their weekend football record, so larger wagers are common for these games. I don't think the books would set a line too low 2 weeks in a row. (I'm not sure how much this really matters, but it makes me a little more comfortable in my thinking.)
3) The Ravens lost to the Bears last week, and if they have anything left, it will be all out there tonight. The Ravens are 2-4, so hopefully they realize they need a win - soon. There is no looking ahead to next week, this is it.
I just looked at my book and the line is up to +13. It is pretty tempting right now. I haven't decided yet, but these are my current thoughts given this huge line. I would really appreciate thoughts and input (good and bad). Thanks a lot guy!!! Good luck tonight!!!
Before I start with my thoughts, I'd just want to say that I am aware of the millions of reasons why the Steelers should win this game handily, but the line and public percentage has gotten to the point where I'm really thinking about the Ravens.
My thoughts:
1) Every thinks only the Steelers will show up for MNF. You know the Ravens will be pumped and ready to play too. I know something like %80 is on the Steelers, but I don't really prescribe to the %80 rule of fading the public. It all depends on the game, but I do think the public is underestimating how the Ravens will respond.
2) Whether or not this actually has significance or not, I'm sure the books will try their darndest not to get railed 2 weeks in a row on MNF. MNF is also the last chance for bettors to increase their weekend football record, so larger wagers are common for these games. I don't think the books would set a line too low 2 weeks in a row. (I'm not sure how much this really matters, but it makes me a little more comfortable in my thinking.)
3) The Ravens lost to the Bears last week, and if they have anything left, it will be all out there tonight. The Ravens are 2-4, so hopefully they realize they need a win - soon. There is no looking ahead to next week, this is it.
I just looked at my book and the line is up to +13. It is pretty tempting right now. I haven't decided yet, but these are my current thoughts given this huge line. I would really appreciate thoughts and input (good and bad). Thanks a lot guy!!! Good luck tonight!!!