?How do you make money off football?

[MrCanuck]

I don't get this "units" concept. Sure you can play disciplined and maybe go 30-20 in the season and minus the juice, you make a tiny, steady profit. But where's the fun at?

What I do is simply this: I make regular plays throughout the season, ranging from $20 to $100 for example, parlays, and all kinds of stuff. Then comes the Bowls. I pick 5 games that I am ABSOLUTELY SURE OF and I parlay something that HURTS.

Last year it was a 5-game parlay for $250 over 10 days. I think I had GB/MIN OV - easy win, the Hawaii (DrunK) Bowl OV - 99 points scored!, the OAK/KC game OV the next day - Biggest miracle ever! Dying seconds... close game... 3 feild goals in the last 2 minutes!, the DEN/IND game OV the next day - Another Miracle!... Manning faced with two 4th downs on the last drive, REBELS his coach to go for it and gets it. and to cap it all off: the AutoZone Liberty Bowl on New Year's eve, LOUISVILLE/BOISE-ST OV - last minute of play; going for it on 4th and 1, Timeout, LeFore's mom tells them to kick the feild goal instad, they kick it to take a 44-40 lead for the backdoor cover!

And after all the ups and downs, I finish the year off deep in the plus. Hey, it worked for the past 3 years for me.

[ILLZ]

The difference is that you sir, are a gambler, and most of these people are handicappers, simply put. They'll take steady profit year in and year out for 10 years, watch their BR grow, and eventually going 30-20 and making a "small, steady" profit turns into making a "LARGE, steady" profit. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you look at it), I'm somewhere in between you, and them.

GL this season!

[Horfin]

Units are simply a standard meseaurement.

A unit could be $20, it could be $50, it could be $100.

So a person says 4 units, if their normal unit is $20 their bet is $80, if their normal unit is $100 then the bet is $400.

This works to determine the strenght of peoples picks.

Illz explained it best: you don't look for the $5,000 parlay, you look to make $100 this week, $900 next week, lose $300 the third week, win $125 the fourth and so on.

Horf!n

[bigbag12]

parlays suck. money management and straight bets. youre right you wont win much every week but say you average +120.00 every week college and pro combined by betting $30.00 units. 120.00 x 18 $2160.00 over a yr.

bigger units and a good capper can make 5-6 k or more per yr.

one losing yr in the last 6 for me was last yr and i lost $800.00 for the yr.

parlay pay big but suck it away big if your not careful. if you notice on these boards will you find very very few parlays.

no parlays for me this weekend and im up on posted picks $400.OO LAST WEEKEND

[MrCanuck]

Sometimes parlays are the best choice. Say you have Louisville playing at home against a shitty team favored at -32.5. And you 'know' Louisville will cover, why not Parlay Louisville and the OVER (64.5) ?

You'd actually be risking the same for 2.6 times return. Here's how: Since Louisville "will" cover and if they don't you lose one unit anyways, but IF they do, all the other team has to do is score 16 points... 16+16+33= 65.

It's like IF Louisville covers, it WILL go over. If the score stays UNder, Louisville is likely not to cover.

Similarily a few weeks in I had Texas and USC, both at hefty spreads. IF one team covers, the other HAD to win just as big to show they are just as good, since both teams are fighting for number 1.

The same theory can go for picking the Underdog and the UNder.

If the spread is too high, usually in the 30's, along with the totals, some bookies will restrict the total and will not allow you to parlay it with the side.

Just like you can't parlay the Colts at the first half at -7.5 with the Colts for the game at 14 in the same parlay.

[ozz]

Moneyline parlays and luck. Stick with a system and if it works, then it's for you.

The key for me was finding a good sportsbook. My favorite is 5dimes... I found BoDog impossible to win at simply because of their a) whack lines and b) major lack of options.

Some people prefer to play the majority of their picks with single ATS plays, which works very well if you can maintain a winning ratio. It seems to work best if you play an odd amount of games, like pick three of your favorite ATS teams and wager even (or extra amt) of money based on how confident you are.

The most success I've had personally is probably the riskiest of all. I chose to make the vast majority of my plays in moneyline parlays. I typically pick home teams with a lot of chalk. For example, this weekend I have strong leans on Georgia (-18), OU (-14) & Texas (-16) at home. And instead of playing 3 ATS plays, I'll parlay them and a few other teams to get the best payout possible.

Tonight, for example I have Indy -1000 ML as the last leg of two parlays (6 and 8 team respectively) and with $150 wagered, It'll net $700+ if Indy wins. So in short, pick a method, try new methods and stick with one you like. And don't let other people influence your picks too much. If you have a good lean, go for it.

gl
ozz:thumbs:

[MrCanuck]

Oh and speaking of money management, I use Linear Programming to determine on how to wager according to the degree of confidence.

Theory #1: I will only find a bunch of great plays once a month, so consider 4 games that I am unusually confident about. Let's look at the straight plays vs. parlay pros and cons:

Win 0 out of 4: Parlay: -1 Straight: -4.4
Win 1 out of 4: Parlay: -1 Straight: -2.3
Win 2 out of 4: Parlay: -1 Straight: -0.2
Win 3 out of 4: Parlay: -1 Straight: +1.9
Win 4 out of 4: Parlay: ~+12 Straight: +4

So as you can see, I would virtually ONLY be worst off with the parlay if I win 3 out of 4 here. So if my parlay is on two inter-related events (sides + totals) the likehood of 3 out of 4 is even less likely.

Theory #2: Linear Programing:

-Let x be the wager on a 4-gamer and y be the wager on a 5-gamer. The payout factor is given at 11.5 and 22 respectively (included needed buy-points).

-I want to win a maximum of $1500 and risk no more than $100.

11.5x + 22y = 1500
x + y = 100

11.5x + 22y = 1500
-22x - 22y = -2200

-10.5x = -700 ; x= 66.67 ; y= 33.33

PRESTO!

[Personafied]

I say do both. Parlays arent as bad as people say. I mean you dont win them all, but keep your bets low. For instance, find a game u would straight bet, then find another game you like, lower your bet amount, chances are if you lose, the one u would have bet stright would have lossed, so instead of being down a unit u may be down half a unit or whatever. Sometimes there isnt anygames you particularly like, so just do a all moneyline parlay. Look at this past weekend. If you took any favored team ml you would have won, if u avoided pittsburgh in the parlay that is.

[rgm]

Don't agree with your logic in theory #1:
Just because a side and over/under selection are on the same game, it does not affect the chances of winning or losing both bets. They may be inter-related, but they are not mutually inclusive. (not dependent on each other)

[matt71211]

I don't agree with you theory simply because most skilled cappers will get 45-70 % of their games right over the year... at that percent you'd be bette roff playing four striaght bets over the year because there are stronger odds of you taking 2 or 3 out of 4 most weeks, which would net you the same profit as hitting a 4 team parley every 6 or 7 tries... of course, o nthe other hand I do love two teams parleys, because most cappers will have succes hitting two of their surest game si nthe week... a 4 teamer is always bound to get screwe dby a backdoor cover, a late turnover or an upset.