MP's Week 7 Plays

[MParris86]

Alabama -13 @ Ole Miss LOSER

Tulsa -7 @ Rice WINNER

UTEP -7 vs. Tulane WINNER

Northwestern +7 @ Purdue WINNER

Texas Tech -13.5 vs. Kansas State WINNER


Writeups to Follow.....

[joepa66]

Tightend.....you know I love all those cause they are exactly what I am playing with a "maybe" on the UTEP game.....GL:thumbs:

[MParris86]

LOL, thanks JoePa...Just think they are the strongest plays this week, as do alot of the cappers here! BTW, nice win for the Nittany Lions this week! :thumbs:

Add:

7pt Teaser (7 teams)

Auburn -0.5 @ Arkansas
Florida State PK @ Virginia
Georgia -8.5 @ Vanderbilt
Louisville PK @ West Virginia
Oklahoma +1 vs. Kansas
Penn State +10.5 @ Michigan
Arizona +2 vs. Stanford

[MParris86]

Alabama -13 @ Ole Miss

The Tide are 5-0 and coming off a bye week after dismantling Florida 31-3 two weeks ago. They have a Heisman hopeful in QB Brodie Croyle and this game will be a good momentum builder for him and the team with LSU and Tennessee looming in the next few weeks.

Ole Miss has had major problems moving the ball on offense, including a mediocre effort against The Citadel, which they turned the ball over 3 times and only managed 7 first half points. The Rebels are barely managing 100ypg rushing on the season. This is bad news against an Alabama rushing D that is allowing less than 100ypg and held 3 opponents to date under 75 rushing yards.

Ole Miss has a pretty good defense, but has not been tested by a strong offense (Tennessee and Vanderbilt have been their biggest tests on D). Bama isn't electric on O, but they are efficient, have a good leader in Croyle and have been taking good care of the ball. Bama should score at least 24 on the Rebels.

The Rebels have a propensity for turning the ball over, losing the ball 10 times in their last 3 games. Bama will continue the trend with their strong swarming defense and the offense will capitalize on these errors. This one is over by the start of the 4th.

Prediction: Alabama 28 Ole Miss 10

[MParris86]

Tulsa -7 @ Rice

This game appears to be a big mismatch, as Tulsa and their strong offense faces the sieve that is the Rice defense. Tulsa, having gone 3-1 in their last 4 games, has scored an average of 37ppg over that stretch. Meanwhile, Rice is 0-4 on the season and has allowed 50ppg on the year. Not once has the Owls held a team under 40 points in a game.

In Rice's defense, this is their first home game of the year after playing at UCLA, Texas, UAB and ECU. They may find a different switch on their own turf, but Tulsa has played good on the road, going 2-1 in away games.

Rice has no assemblance of a passing attack, failing to throw for more than 100 yards in any of their first four games. Sure, it has alot to do with their option attack. Meanwhile Tulsa has shown a diverse offense, throwing for 235ypg and rushing for 160ypg.

One key to this game is turnovers. Tulsa has forced 15 turnovers while Rice has only 1 takeaway on the entire season and a -7 TO margin.

I believe Tulsa will pack the box and force Rice to attempt to complete some passes. They wont be able to do so and the Golden Hurricane will capitalize off mistakes. The diverse Tulsa offense will score points against a porous Rice defense and the Owls wont be able to come back with their grind-it-out style of offense.

Prediction: Tulsa 35 Rice 17

[BaMan]

GL MParris!!:thumbs:

[MParris86]

Thanks BaMan...GL to you also!


Texas Tech -13.5 vs. Kansas State (Bought 0.5pt)

Texas Tech is 5-0 on the year and they need this big home game before heading to Texas to face the Longhorns next week. The Red Raiders are 4-0 SU at home this season, although their first 3 opponents were cupcakes. Regardless, Texas Tech has put up some crooked numbers on the scoreboard and stat sheets, especially through the air. They torched one of the best defenses in the country a week ago in Nebraska, racking up 368 passing yards.

Kansas State is 4-1 with their only defeat coming by 22pts to a mediocre Oklahoma team. They got an ugly win last week, beating Kansas 12-3 at home. Kansas State has had major problems the past two weeks finding any sort of running game, getting 22 total rushing yards against Oklahoma and only 35 against Kansas. The passing game hasnt been too much better, averaging 185 yards over those two games. This doesn't bode well against a tough Texas Tech defense that is allowing only 119 rushing ypg and 182 passing ypg.

A BIG key to this game will likely be turnovers, as both teams have been involved in games with alot of them. Unfortunately for K-State, they have usually been on the wrong side. The Wildcats are turning the ball over an average of 2.4 times per game. Meanwhile, Texas Tech's defense has forced 14 turnovers, including 11 in their past 3 games. The Red Raider offense has been sharp, considering how they throw the ball around the field, only committing 6 turnovers.

Texas Tech has outgained their opponents this season by an average margin of 250 yards per game (551-301). Kansas State will not be able to run the ball effectively and consequently will turn the ball over trying to match scores with the Red Raiders.

Note: Since 1992, Texas Tech is 62-38 ATS against Big 12 opponents, 45-24 ATS at home, and 37-18 ATS in October.


Prediction: Texas Tech 34 Kansas State 14

[Eagles2005SB]

gl MP

[MParris86]

UTEP -7 vs. Tulane

UTEP has had an extra week to prepare for Tulane and straighten out some of the mistakes that plagued them in a 27-20 loss to Memphis two weeks ago--a game they should have won. The Miners turned the ball over 6 times, including 4 times in Memphis' red zone. They will look to their swarming defense to stop Tulane cold.

The Miners are tied for fifth in the country with 16 sacks this season and are 13th in the country with 34 tackles for losses this season. UTEP has already registered nine interceptions this season, which is tied for 11th in the nation.

The Miner D should have some success agsinst the Green Wave. Tulane's offense is nothing to get excited about, as they are averaging a mere 95ypg rushing and 216 ypg passing. Their best offensive output was 28 points against I-AA SE Louisiana. Still, they only managed 28 rushing yards on 21 carries.

UTEP has never lost two consecutive games on the road under Price. UTEP is 8-1 ATS the past three seasons in the month of October.

The Miners have too many playmakers on offense for the Green Wave to keep up with. As long as UTEP takes care of the ball, they should have good success putting points up against the Green Wave. Just like against Houston (outscored 28-7 in the second half) Tulane just doesnt have the firepower to keep up.

Prediction: UTEP 31 Tulane 19

[bigbag12]

GL hoss. TTU looks solid :bbang:

[acefrehley24]

GL this week MParris!


:thumbs:

[MParris86]

Appreciate it Bigbag, Eagles & Ace...Have a good one! :booz:

[kilbane]

Iggy upsets the Eagles in the Holy War

[MParris86]

Originally posted by kilbane
Iggy upsets the Eagles in the Holy War

haha, I dont know without a certain receiver out due to injury.

[fsufanatic2000]

MParris my good man.. i like tech and tulsa.. sorta like utep.. but a lil fishy with the status of the players and the line moving to 6.5.. weird.. let's take em down with the red raidgers and golden hurricanes! haha

[MParris86]

FSU-

From what I hear, the only players that are out for UTEP is one of their good DL and one of their good WR. Ebell is healthy as is the QB. The wideouts are pretty deep, so I think they wont miss too much. Tulane just doesn't have much offense and I don't think they will be able to keep up.

[joepa66]

Holy War indeed.....more like a jihad in ne ohio when Iggy and Eds meet....either of you two (Kilbane and Tightend) going to the "show".....:cool:

[birdsfan5]

GL MParris

[MParris86]

Thanks birdsfan...GL to you too!


Northwestern +7 @ Purdue

There is a point of every season where teams don't realize expectations and consequently pack up their bags and wait til next year. Purdue is one of those teams. After being pegged as preseason Big Ten contenders and starting the season 2-0, the Boilermakers have proceeded to lose 3 straight games...including the last two by 17 points or more.

Northwestern is riding high after knocking Wisconsin from the ranks of unbeatens. The Wildcats lost two games to Arizona State and Penn State in weeks 4 & 5, but they played Penn State tougher than anyone to date, falling 34-29.

Purdue's troubles lie in their defense, a unit that returned all 11 starters from 2004. In the past 3 games, the Boilermakers have allowed averages of: 41.7 ppg and 576 total ypg. Northwestern will be able to move the ball on them with the passing of Brett Basanez and running of Tyrell Sutton. The Wildcats are averaging over 35ppg and 500 ypg on the season.

Northwestern's defense is not exactly stopping people in their tracks, either. They are having just as much trouble as Purdue on the defensive side of the ball. A lone bright spot has been LB McGonigle, who is on the Butkus Award list.

Expect a game eerily similar to the Northwestern/Wisconsin game last week. The only difference is the fact that Wisconsin was playing good football heading into that one, while Purdue is coming into this game licking their wounds. Northwestern's offense should continue to pour salt on them. This one comes down to the wire.

Prediction: Northwestern 42 Purdue 38

[zenzenzen]

GL with your picks

:prtytme:

[matt71211]

Parris I know my wildcats and let me just tell you that they dont play very well on the road in the big 10..... They're a whole different team at home... then Again the Boilermakers flat out suck this year and I could easily see purdue winning by a field goal in this one... BOL

[MParris86]

Thanks Zen...Matt, I just don't like the direction that Purdue is heading this season, their defense is horrendous and Northwestern can score with the best of them. Despite being on the road, I think the Cats make this one very interesting and may grab the SU win. Also forgot to mention....

Purdue is 0-4-1 ATS this season. And in the past three seasons, Northwestern is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a 3-10 point underdog.

[MParris86]

4-1 on the weekend. No complaints here! :booz:

[joepa66]

Nice job Tightend.....:yeah: