JoePa's CFB Week #7

[joepa66]

UPDATED YTD: 25 - 18 - 3
UNITS: +8.5
Last Week: 4-3

This Week's Early Leans
Will post my picks in this thread later in the week!

Thursday -
CLEMSON +5 vs. NC State

Friday -
UTEP -7 vs. Tulane

Saturday -
ALABAMA -12.5 vs. Ole Miss
NORTHWESTERN +9 vs. Purdue
NAVY -13 vs. Kent
AIR FORCE -13 vs. Unlv
PENN STATE +3.5 vs. Michigan
NOTRE DAME +13.5 vs. Usc
UCLA -6.5 vs. Washington State
CAL -16 vs. Oregon State
ARIZONA -5 vs. Stanford
FLORDIA STATE -4.5 vs. Virginia
TULSA -7 vs. Rice
EAST CAROLINA +2 vs. Smu

GL this week...:thumbs:

[zenzenzen]

GL Joe, I think there are some really good plays this week, and I was looking at alot of yours...UTEP and UCLA in particular. GL to you this week Joe...hammer that Man.

:thumbs:

[bigbag12]

GL joe..at a quick glance looks like some good plays this weekend. alot of capping to do this week.

[joepa66]

Liking this weekend already.....:thumbs:

NAVY -12.5 vs. Kent State

Kent is the absolute worst running team in the nation ranked 119th gaining just 43.4ypg.....damn, my grandma could do that with her eyes closed and 6 feet under! Their passing attack does average 288ypg, however, their starting QB got hurt vs. EMU and they had to throw an untested freshman into the fray. Most of Kent's yardage and "close" losses have come in the waning part of their games. Both Eastern Michigan and Ohio U had the games well in hand in the 4th quarter and subbed out their D's and Kent kept passing! They have lost the stats in EVERY GAMES including their 33-12 win over SE Missouri State where they were only able to muster 195 yards while SEMissou gained 295! In their last two contests the Flashes are -5 in TO margin no doubt due to having that freshman QB in there. I know the Flashes have had a week off for their starting QB to lick his wounds but I don't think it'll help them in Annapolis!
The Rams are ranked 10th nationally in running at 250ypg while Kent's pseudo defense is ranked 105th giving up 209ypg on the ground. Navy is ranked 105th in the nation in passing with 151ypg but the Golden Flash defense will be good for what ails them ranking 83rd giving up 244ypg. All Navy has to do is keep the right mindset after a big win over rival Air Force last week 27-24. The midshipmen have won 2 games in a row rolling up 326 yards rushing in a 28-21 win over Duke the week before. Their two losses have come to Stanford 41-38 in a game where they won the stats, and 23-20 vs. Maryland in turtleville where they still managed to run for 246 yards. I think Navy will continue their small streak and pound the ball against the overmatched Flashes, keeping Kent's air attack grounded on the sidelines for most of the game

[saidzeppelin]

Jp66,

Who does granny play for? I gotta see that(LOL)... Some nice looking picks. Solid record!! Keep up the good work my man!! I do think Navy will be able to triple option their way past the Golden Showers...:prtytme:

[joepa66]

ALABAMA -12.5 vs. Ole Miss

The Tide rolls in at 5-0 overall while the Rebels are 2-3.....in the head to head Bama is 7-2SU and 6-3ATS. Don't see anything but the Tide Rolling in on this one too and they thought Katrina was bad!?
Bama is ranked 6th in scoring defense holding opponents to 11.6ppg while the Rebel offense is ranked 108th in scoring at 16.8ppg. The Bama D is ranked 10th in passing allowing 153ypg playing against the Rebel offensive strength at 211ypg. The Bama D will get a lot of balls thrown at them because that is Ole Miss' only prayers. The Tide are 18th vs. the run allowing only 90ypg while Ole Miss is ranked 100th in run offense at 100.6ypg. Plus the Ole Miss offense is ranked 106th in total turnovers at 2.6 per game! On the offensive side Bama is balanced and can run and throw effectively to the tune of 172ypg rushing and 230ypg passing while beating MTSU 26-7, So. Miss 30-21, South Carolina 37-14, Arkansas 24-13, beat dem Gators 31-3 down in Too Ska Loosa and have had two weeks off to prepare for this game and had a 2hour practice on SUNDAY, wha, in the deep south, you betcha! Ya think Shula means business?!!!
“Hopefully, the couple of days off got some guys rested. We got a little extra preparation today on Ole Miss,” he said. “Injury-wise, Prothro (Tyrone) is still in the hospital,” Shula said, “we want to make sure everything is ok before he is released. He is doing fine.”
This game will be only the second road game of the season for Alabama, having 6 homes games on the schedule really sets them up well to control their destiny for the conference schedule as they host both Tennessee and LSU but have to finish on the road at Auburn! The only two road games left on conference schedule at in Oxford and Starkville vs. Miss St.
Ole Miss had a win vs. The Citadel last weekend 27-7, and has been outstatted in every other game this year including their 10-6 win over Memphis! Ole Miss has lost to Tennessee 27-10, Wyoming 29-14 and Vandy 31-23. In those losses the Rebels are -7 in TO margin. ROLL TIDE!

[Rammajamma32]

LOVE the Bama and FSU picks JoePa! I'll be jumping on both of those as soon as my book opens up its lines this afternoon. Wanted to congratulate you on the BIG win Saturday. While I was on the other side wager-wise, it was one of the few times where I can lose and still smile about it. It's great to see Paterno & Co. back in the limelight, as your program has suffered like my Crimson Tide over the past 5 years or so. GL this week.

[Eagles2005SB]

gl JP

like Bama Noles Arizona and UTEP .... gl this week

[joepa66]

FLORIDA STATE -4.5 vs. Virginia

Got this line when it was very undervalued......
The Noles are 5-0 on the season and 3-1ATS in lined games while the Cavaliers are 3-2 and just 1-4ATS. In the Head to Head matchup FSU is 9-0 SU and 6-3ATS averaging 37ppg in the series to UVA's 12.8ppg.
Nothing like a little defense to slap yer offense in the face after laying it to the likes of Western Michigan 31-19 (UVA gave up 357 yards), Syracuse 27-24, and Duke 38-7. And defense is what Florida State brings to the table and with a vengance. FSU has held 3 opponents to under 100 yards rushing, Cuse got 45, Citadel 26, and Miami,FL 81.......that 172ypg rushing average of the Cavs was mostly gained in their first 3 games of the season and have helped pad their stats a bit with 172ypg rushing average and and 215ypg passing average. The Noles also only allow 179ypg passing to their opposition.
The Cavalier D will get burned by the long ball as they allow 234ypg passing and the Noles rank 10th in passing at 319ypg. They don't have to run much and their 112ypg rushing shows it, but UVA's D also gives up 114ypg rushing which could prove to be good tonic for the Noles running game, either that, or it will simply be used as a setup to their passing game. UVA allowed 271 yards passing to Western, 320 to Maryland and 301 to BC! The Noles schedule includes wins over Miami, FL 10-7, Citadel 62-10, Boston College 28-17, Cuse 38-14 and Wake 41-24......if they don't toy around like a cat playing with a cornered mouse this one will be a blowout like last year!

[FlyersFan]

JP- GL!...you can close the curtain on this buckeye season...really a disappointment. Be careful on UTEP....they may be missing at least 2 of their top 3 skill people. Not a side i would be looking to play if that is the case. I sure wouldn't play it until the day of the game....UCLA is my favorite play...they are playing with 4x revenge vs. WSU. That win was huge and i don't think they are good enough (or think they are) to have a let down. Also, what book do you play at? Some of those lines have been steamed 2-3 points already. I would like to get them at that price if it is still available....thanks and GL!.....

[larry4498]

Joepa, I have tickets available to me if I want them. I went this past Saturday and my back still hurts from those bench seats. I think I'm turning the tickets down this week. I don't see how Mich is gonna score vs PSU, they couldn't move the ball vs Minny and they had given up 70 some pts the previous two weeks. I have no confidence in Michigan this week. GL on your plays!

[raidernick]

it's usc -11.5 not notre dame!!!!!

[WildBillPicks7]

GL this week Joepa!!

:thumbs:

[joepa66]

TULSA -7 vs. Rice

Gotta side with the Golden Hurricane here as they are 3-3 overall and 4-2ATS and 3-0ATS on the road! Rice-a-roni is 0-fer the season in 4 games overall and against the spread. Plus the Owls are ranked 119th in passing at a mere 86.8ypg and they go against Tulsa's 7th ranked pass defense. Rice is also ranked 118th in scoring defense giving up 50ppg, and are horrible at stopping anybody let alone not creating any opportunities for their offense at just 0.3 takeaways per game!
Tulsa ought to be able to pass and run all over the Owls......as the Golden Showers average 234ypg rushing while the Owls give up 293.5ypg which is ranked 112th in the nation. Tulsa also completes 60% of their passes for 161ypg while Rice's D allows opposing passers 70% completions (118th) and 213ypg (108th). That's 537 yards of offense allowed per game, along with Rice's inept offense which averages 3.3 fumbles per game (118th) and 0.8INTs.....and it's not even Christmas!
Rice lost to UCLA 63-21 giving up 578 yards, lost 51-10 to Texas giving up 483 yards, lost 45-26 to UAB giving up 506 yards, and lost 41-28 to East Carolina giving up 459 yards. The Owls D has given up 1543 yards thru the air in just three of their games this season. Tulsa lost to Minnesota 41-10, Oklahoma 31-15, drubbed North Texas 54-2, beat Memphis 37-31, lost to Houston 30-23, and hammered always tough Southern Miss in Hattiesburg 34-17 holding the Eagles to 169 net yards while racking up 475! Me thinks Rice and Temple might be a good matchup!

[fsufanatic2000]

last time fsu lost to UVA was back in '95 when warrick dunn scored from 2 yds out, but they ruled him down.. the old barber boys were on the cavs then.. a 33-28 loss, it was on like a thursday night.. i just remember not going to school the next day.. haha

[BaMan]

GL Joepa!!:thumbs:

[joepa66]

NORTHWESTERN +9 vs. Purdue

Neither team is setting the world on fire this season....Purdue was picked to win the Big 10 and they can just about forget about that, and they were also picked to be 3rd in the nation and they can surely forget about that one as well.....Northwestern was picked for 10th in the Big Ten and they are surprising a few people with their scoring prowess. NW is 3-2 on the season and 3-2ATS while the Boilers are 2-3 and 0-4-1ATS.
Look at their defensive stats to tell why they are not lighting it up this year and you will find that Purdue is ranked 118th in pass defense allowing 348ypg and NW is 117th allowing 308ypg. NW also is ranked 204th in run defense giving up 201ypg while Purdue is much better at 133.6ypg but why pass when you can throw. The Boilers have given up 357 passing to Iowa, 468 passing to Notre Dame, 362 to Akron, and 283 to Arizona...their low total came to Minnesota where they gave up 271 in passing yards but at the same time gave up 301 on the ground. NW has also let other teams throw all over them giving up 326 to Wisky, 271 to Penn State, 483 to Arizona State, and 283 to N. Illinois....their lowest total came vs. pitiful Ohio U who had 239 total yards and 177 in passing. The Cats also gave up 290 in rushing to Arizona State and 256 to No. Illinois.
There's gonna be lots of scoring as NW averages 35ppg and Purdue 32ppg, while Purdue allows 34.6ppg and NW 37ppg. It might be more prudent to play the over total in this game, however, after watching Purdue get shellacked by an average Iowa team and NW having two good games vs. Wisky and Penn State I'm leaning on taking the Wildcats and the points! Besides I think Basanez is the better QB and Sutton one helluva running back to stop!

[MountaineerFan]

BOL joepa66

I'm ridin FSU and Bama!

[joepa66]

NOTRE DAME +13.5 vs. USC

One of the oldest rivalries in the books....in the head to head in the last 9 games, USC is 6-3SU and 7-2ATS, however we have been thru some horrible Notre Dame teams especially in the Gerry Faust and Bob Davie eras. This Charlie Weiss team is not even close playing at the same Pop Warner level as those teams were! So throw the records out the window, Weiss & Company have had an extra week to heal and prepare, and they moved the pep rally to the stadium because there is so much Irich fervor on campus.
This ND team has shown they can score unlike last year's version and average 37ppg! And, it's a good thing they can score, because the defense allows 24ppg but it's been good enough to standup for a 4-1 overall record and a 4-1ATS record for the season. It seems Irish pride is back at least in shutting down the run where the Irish have limited Michigan to 114 yards, Washington to 41, Michigan State to 161 and Pitt 103. So, teams are forced to throw at a bend but don't break defense which averages 41 tosses against its' secondary per game which ranks 116th, however, the ND 'D' has limited the opposition to a 50% completion rate and lots of yardage underneath in allowing a misleading but staggering 306ypg (116th).
USC has been almost unstoppable, at least in the second half of its'games this season, scoring 52ppg (2nd), racking up 349ypg passing (4th) and 291ypg on the ground (1st). Their D is pretty much like Notre Dame's, ranked 11th in rushing yards allowed at 91ypg, forcing teams to pass at will with 37 attempts per game and allowing them 246ypg thru the air. In their last 3 games, the Trojans have trailed in the first half only to come roaring back in the second half. They have rolled up 3202 yards of offense thru 5 games. Against traditional passing teams such as Arizona State and Hawaii, the men of Troy gave up 347 and 377 yards passing respectively. Only one team has rushed for more than 100 yards against them, Arkansas got 197 against them and like Notre Dame the Trojans are +6 in TO margin on the year.
ND has had 2 games this year where Brady Quinn has thrown for nearly 500 yards, 468 vs. Purdue, and 487 vs. Michigan State. The Irish can run the ball effectivley as well and have amassed 2524 yards of total offense themselves. It has appeared lately that the Irish can almost score at will and toyed with Purdue and Washington before ending their routs with USC-like lopsided margins. Hopefully, Charlie has not tipped his hand yet and the Irish are laying in wait to avenge last year's 41-10 pasting at the hands of the Trojans. In the past three seasons USC has lopsidedly averaged 43ppg vs. ND while the Irish could only muster 12ppg, if that isn't enough to want to ruin somebody's Saturday afternoon I don't know what is! It's the biggest game on ND's schedule this year, probably this decade, and playing is South Bend can seem so confining for opposing teams but always cozy for the Irish!

[bigbag12]

ND solid :thumbs:

[joepa66]

GEORGIA -15 vs. Vanderbilt

The Bulldogs are 5-0 on the season and have a stout run defense with holding 4 of its' opponents to under 100 yards rushing at 43, 49, 88 and that includes Tennessee with 48! Georgia's defense has a lot of bite to it.....forcing 3.5 turnovers per game, they are +9 in TO margin on the season, and the most yardage they have given up on the season was 292 vs. Boise State before UT came up with 358!
UGA can do it on both sides of the ball if you will and their QB has already found his way.....vs. UT the Dawgs rolled up 405 yards/ 198 rushing and 207 passing, vs. Boise they rolled up 574 yards of offense with 394 coming thru the air, vs. So Carolina they rammed thru for 238 yards on the ground, vs. LA Monroe they ran for 280 and passed for 263, and vs. Missy State they again eclipsed the 300 yard passing mark with 312! The Dawgs average 198ypg rushing and 258ypg passing......on D the Dawgs allow just 79 yards rushing (8th) and 199 passing and only 11.8ppg!
Vandy was held to 25 yards rushing last week by LSU while getting embarrassed 34-6 at home in Nashville, and only managed 113 passing for a total of 138 yards offense. Their D gave up 479 yards vs. the Bayou Bengals with 194 on the ground and 285 thru the air. Now how do you suppose they stop Georgia. Those early games on the Commodores schedule boosted them to a 4-2 record and they only need 2 more wins to become bowl eligible, but there ain't no dubya this week either! Gone are the Richmonds, Middle Tennessees, Arkansas and Wake Forests from their schedule....they are running with the big dogs now but they probably should stay on the porch....it's a lot safer!
Surely the Dawgs are gonna score, the question is, can Vandy?

[FlyersFan]

JP- any thoughts on those games at the current lines, as one would have had to have played those games Sunday night to get those numbers?

[BoKnows]

Nice JP looks like we are on the same page on a few again:yeah:

[irishguy44]

GL Joe!

[MParris86]

Like 'em JoePa...especially NW and Tulsa. GL this weekend!

[joepa66]

Clemson +5.5 vs. NC State
Clemmie is 2-3 (2-1-1 ATS) while NCSt is 2-2 (1-2 ATS). In the Head to Head the Pack are 4-6 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings BUT the Tigers are 3-1 ATS in the LAST 4! Trends have the visiting team in the series at 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games played. Think you’re experiencing dejavu? Nah, you did see NCSt featured on ESPN Thursday night football last week in that thriller vs. GATech.
NC St has been off and on all season long never being able to get on a win streak and alternating wins and losses, while Clemson started 2-0 but has lost 3 consecutive games including a 36-30 OT loss to Miami,FL a 16-13 OT loss to Boston College and blew a 4th Qtr. lead at Wake Forest losing 31-27. All five of the Tigers games this season have been decided by less than 6 points.
The NCState game vs. the Jackets was Fugly. At times it looked like the Wolfpack D was dominant but their offense so inept. In their last two games their TOTAL RUSHING is 69 yards……56 vs. GATech and 13 vs. UNC…..Ugh! The Pack have also been bitten by the turnover bug, committing 2.8TOs per game which is ranked 110th. On the other side of the ball the Tigers are ranked 16th in TOs per game with just 0.6. Clemson also won the stats vs. Miami and Wake Forest both losses. Against Miami,FL they had a receiver drop a pass in the end zone at time ran out…..against WF they just couldn’t finish. Maybe the 2 weeks off has done them some good…..In a low scoring affair I gotta go with history!

[Andre]

GL joepa!!:thumbs:

[Q-Unit]

GL señor Paterno :thumbs:

[hackman]

GL JOE..

Except for Tulsa & Clemson.I like all the plays...

Have a friend thats NC state backer that think state could get it nasty in this one... But he's a homer and I took them vs Va Tech on similar info. So you may be solid here. I took the under.

But I haven't capped Tulsa Yet..Being a local I know they are "due' for a letdown...but the rest are on my radar....

Smack the books:yeah:

[dead garcia]

I see several winners in there pal....

[birdsfan5]

GL Joepa

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL JoePa!

Start it off with Clemson tonight! :thumbs:

[joepa66]

Thanks guys.....GL to you as well, hopefully we'll all be rich soon....LMAO

Flyer, sorry this is so late.....still like the ND line over +10, and I would still bet any of the games I've already posted at the current lines as they haven't fluctuated too much. The only one that might concern me is the FSU line at -7.5 or higher. There's just something about playing in Charlottesville under the lights that get's them Cavalier boys fired up!!!

[Pirate]

gl JoePa...

[golotb]

JOE PA
glad to see the coke bottles are coming clear after a few down year!!!!LOL
Started a new job my capping had to take the back seat but I see a couple of games this week that i will jump all over...

Gl this week

Great game last week....Did you make the game?

[Domer]

Love the play bro GL

[joepa66]

GO.....keeping a somewhat low profile myself.....congrats on the new job! Was gonna go to State College and double my pleasure, my brother's daughter plays golf for Youngstown State and they were playing over there on Friday and got "flooded" out so we decided against going since it was going to be wet. Wasn't too miserable afterall for us PSU fans....LMAO!

[Domer]

Gl tonight and the weekend joepa!!!

[bookiekilla]

GL!

[BIGBALLER]

GL this wknd joepa!!:yeah:

[joepa66]

UPDATED YTD: 30 - 21 - 3
UNITS: +10.5
Last Week: 5-3:thumbs:

No review and Lloyd Carr gets 2 seconds added to the clock....complete homer job.....along with a couple of very questions spots....:puke:

[bigbag12]

rock on joe..looking good so far. keep up the awesome work!!

HEY joe, do you not cap pro games?? just college??

[joepa66]

BigBag....usually not interested in pro foots until around playoff time.....my fav teams are the Giants and Raiders....now I know there's no explanation needed for not capping at least those games.....LMAO. I just keep a low profile on pros until the playoffs even though I am watching.....
:cool: