Week 6 Plays

[MParris86]

After a fantastic start to week 5 during the weekday games, I shit the bed this weekend, losing about 2 units total. Oh well, life goes on!

Small trend play for tonight:

Parlay
North Texas -2 vs. Troy & Under 45

Whats the cure for two defenses that have allowed teams to basically score at will? Two anemic offenses! While North Texas has fallen 54-2 and 54-7 in their previous two games, Troy hasnt done too much better, losing their last three games by an average of 25 points.

This is basically a trend play for me with one critical statistic standing out.

-In the last three seasons, North Texas is 7-1 ATS in October games.

-In their last 15 conference games, North Texas is 12-3 ATS.

-Troy is 0-3 ATS this season.

-Troy is 6-10 ATS as an underdog in the past three seasons.

As far as the statistic is concerned, Troy is a turnover prone team, ranking 118th in the country in TO margin. They have turned the ball over 12 times in four games, including 5 TOs in their last outing. When you give a struggling offense like North Texas a short field, they can suddenly look much better.

North Texas can run the football, while Troy has struggled at times stopping the run, including allowing a 303 yard rushing performance to Missouri in week 3.

The last time these two teams played, North Texas won 21-0. For two teams that are averaging 18.7 and 7.6 points per game respectively, I think 45 points is alot here, especially for two teams that like to run the football.

I like North Texas at home, with alot of trends in their favor to win in a boring, grind-it-out game behind the running of the best player on the field, Patrick Cobbs.

Prediction:North Texas 23 Troy 17

[Eagles2005SB]

gl MP

[birdsfan5]

GL MParris

[Andre]

GL MParris!!:thumbs:
________
roll blunts (http://howtorollablunt.net/)

[fsufanatic2000]

gl MPariss... we had a nice hit on va tech.. are we on any of the same this week?

[MParris86]

Thanks Eagles, Bird, FSU and Andre....need a big week in the worst way!

Akron -10.5 @ Buffalo

There are really only a couple things here worthy of discussing and they are glaring stats that, IMO, will tell the tale of this game.

First off, Buffalo has lost four straight games, all by double digits. The best opponent out of that bunch was Connecticut, who blanked them 38-0. Akron, on the other hand, beat Northern Illinois, the same team that took both Northwestern and Michigan to the wire, and also defeated Mid Tenn. State, who beat previously unbeaten Vandy this past weekend. Relevant? Who knows. At least the Zips know how to win some games.

Buffalo's offense is terrible. They finally put up double digit points in a game, scoring 21 in a loss to W. Michigan last week. Before that, they were averaging 1pt per game in their first 3 game. One thing is for certain, the Bulls CANNOT run the football. They are averaging 80 rushing ypg and only 2.2 ypc. Last game out, Western Michigan allowed a mere 72 yards on 41 carries: 1.7ypc.

Why is this relevant? Because Akron's two losses were to teams that ran the ball down their throat. In losses to Central Michigan and Purdue, they allowed an average of 224 rushing yards. Conversely, in their two wins, they allowed an average of 52 rushing yards.

Akron has an offense that is capable of putting up big numbers through the air. They will score enough to force Buffalo to try and get in a shooting match with them. Considering Northern Illinois couldn't win one, I dont think the Bulls can either.

Prediction: Akron 35 Buffalo 17


Others:

Georgia Tech -4.5 vs. NC State
Ohio State -3 @ Penn State
Arizona +37 @ USC
Houston -1.5 vs. Tulane

Writeups to Follow.....

[fsufanatic2000]

everyone likes akron.. i'm staying away.. i know buffalo is horrendous.. but i have a feeling about this game.. and that feeling was confirmed when the line dropped from 12.5 to 10.. weird.. but i said it sunday night to eagles that i think buff covers.. it'll be a no play so i'll root for a zips romp.. gl!

[joepa66]

GL Tightend....like the Akron play as well.....:thumbs:

[acefrehley24]

BOL Parris! I'm on the Mean Green myself!


:thumbs:

[MParris86]

Thanks JoePa, Ace....BOL to you also!

FSU-

I know the line movement is strange, but I'm going on basic football IQ in the Akron/Buffalo game: One team wins when they stop the run, the other cant run the football.


Arizona +37 @ USC

After finally getting a legitimate test from Arizona State, the Trojans finally might have some bumps and bruises to tend to, as well as some question marks swirling after allowing 350 passing yards and falling behind 21-3 at half.

This appears to me a classic sandwich game IMO. The battle in the hot desert with Arizona State was one legit test, while the trip to South Bend in two weeks has become a highly anticipated matchup. A ho-hum game with the Cats sits squarely in the middle.

There really isn't much need to talk about USC's prolific offense. They can run and pass with the best of them. But the defense does leave some room for concern. Despite the interceptions, Sam Keller carved up the Trojan secondary and USC continuously allowed ASU to put together long scoring drives. While Arizona wont have the same success as their in-state counterpart, they may be able to score a few points in the first half and make it at least a 2 half game.

Arizona certainly won't win this game, but they have a decent enough passing attack to test the USC secondary. The Wildcats' defense has also been fairly solid. Only Utah in week 1 managed more than 200yards passing. Arizona MUST hold on to the football however. They have been horrendous in TO margin, and they cant afford to turn the ball over to the USC offense.

I think that USC might get caught licking their wounds a bit and looking forward to the anticipated ND game next week. They will win comfortably, and Arizona should have enough to cover, especially if USC decides to rest some of their starters in the second half.

Prediction: USC 45 Arizona 14

[MParris86]

Well, its apparent the Green just arent very mean any more. :black: 100 yards rushing for NT, and 283 for Troy?!?:punch: Wow. At least I had the under!

Ohio State -3 @ Penn State

Welcome, Michael Robinson & Tony Hunt, to your worst nightmare. The Nittany Lions' QB and RB who are off to great starts running the football, now get the pleasure of facing the top rushing defense in the country. The Buckeyes allow a scant 41ypg rushing, including two ridiculously dominating performances in their last two outings. SDSU and Iowa combined for a grand total of......4 rushing yards!

The Buckeyes offense finally appears to be hitting stride as well, torching Iowa and their pretty solid defense for 530 yards in an easy win. Troy Smith looks back to his old self while Antonio Pittman has become a viable runner. The receivers are deep, with four guys already in double digits for receptions. So, unlike Minnesota, Penn State wont be able to key on one particular person or area.

OSU has played the tougher schedule and has had two weeks to prepare for the Nittany Lions. Expect the Buckeyes D to frustrate the Nittany Lions offense and force Michael Robinson, who is prone to making mistakes (6 INT) into turning the ball over. The Nittany Lions trip to the top 25 becomes only a pit stop.

Note: OSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 0-3pts.

Prediction: OSU 27 Penn State 17

[zenzenzen]

BOL MParris

[saidzeppelin]

MP86,

I reallllllllllly like the OSU call. PSU is due for a loss which I thought was coming last week but they played great against Minny and shut down the run(should have lost to NW on the road though). PSU is a good team but I think OSU will prove to be a step above everyone else in the Big 10 + 1 this year with that scary D and let's face it, Jim Tressel like him or hate him, is an excellent game planner... I will be posting this play later this week as well and may go as far as to say it's a GOTW. PSU still getting a little to much hype from what I have seen. I do however think it's great that Joe Pa is getting the love again(he deserves it).. BOL to you...



:prtytme:

[jdoster33]

MP, OSU was the first thing that stuck out big time when I saw the lines this week. One of my biggest plays of the year. I see this worse than the Iowa blowout at home. OSU by 20.

[BaMan]

like OSU also!! GL!!:gulp:

[MParris86]

Thanks Zen, Said, BaMan, JD....gl to you guys this weekend as well :thumbs:

No play tonight...hard game to cap IMO. I'll be a casual viewer. GL to anyone playing it....If I had to guess I'd say Miami 34 NIU 28. Last week the home favorites were great, this week somebody let the dogs out. ::):

[MParris86]

Georgia Tech -4.5 vs. NC State

NC State is 1-2 on the year (0-2 ATS) while GT is 3-1 (2-2 ATS). In all reality, every sign points to Georgia Tech in this game. Here's a few:

-NC State's only win came against a I-AA team, wheras GT has beaten UNC, Connecticut and Auburn.

-This is NC State's first road game.

-NC State managed just 13 rushing yards vs. UNC. GT had over 130.

-NC State has a turnover problem, giving the ball away 9 times in 3 games. GT has 6 turnovers in 4 games.

-Georgia Tech has a healthy Reggie Ball.

-GT is 10-2 ATS in this matchup since 1992, including 10pt and 8pt wins the last two seasons.

-NC State is 1-9 ATS in October games the last 3 seasons, and 5-13 ATS in ACC play the last 3 seasons.

NC State will keep this game within reach because of their defense, but too much GT at home in this one. Ball will make some plays, NC State will shoot themselves in the foot several times with mistakes and turnovers, and GT will capitalize.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 30 NC State 21

[jdoster33]

Haven't decided yet MP, but the line looks as if they want us to take NC St +4. I watched that GTech win over Auburn and they looked great but couldn't do anything on the road at VTech. May lay off this one.

GL with your play.

[birdsfan5]

GL MParris