JoePa's CFB Week #6

[joepa66]

UPDATED YTD: 21 - 15 - 3
UNITS: +7.5
Tuesday: 1-0
Thursday: 0-1
Saturday: 3-2
Last Week: 4-3

THIS WEEK'S EARLY LEANS
The games that jump out at me first.....

Wednesday -
NORTHERN ILLINOIS -3 vs. Miami, OH

Saturday -

BOSTON COLLEGE -5.5 vs. Virginia
AKRON -12.5 vs. Buffalo
BALL STATE +10.5 vs. Western Michigan
EAST CAROLINA -5 vs. Rice
LOUISVILLE -11.5 vs. North Carolina
ARIZONA STATE -8.5 vs. Oregon
LSU -15 vs. Vanderbilt
WYOMING -6 vs. Tcu
PURDUE -5 vs. Iowa
GEORGIA +3 vs. Tennessee
MINNESOTA +8 vs. Michigan
INDIANA -6 vs. Illinois

Let's rock this week!:cool:

[Eagles2005SB]

gl joe ... like AKron and BC alot

[FlyersFan]

JoeP- GL!.....you'd better get on BC if you like them...they are at 7 already....GL!

[Q-Unit]

Joseph Paterno got some ass last week after beating Minny, I know it!!! LOL not pretty to think about, but go Lions!! :thumbs:

[zenzenzen]

:thumbs: BC Louisville Wyoming, was looking at those games too...

GL joepa

[kilbane]

You are missing one game! Bucks vs Penn St. I gotsta know from a fellow Ohio guy; what's it gunna be? lol

[Underdog88]

like Az St & Wyoming thinking Georgia too:thumbs:

[birdsfan5]

GL Joepa

[acefrehley24]

BOL joepa!


:thumbs:

[ozz]

Good luck with your plays !!

I like the majority of them except I think Iowa wins SU, so what do I know?

ozz

[Pincenzo]

GL Joepa

[joepa66]

BOSTON COLLEGE -5.5 vs. Virginia

The Eagles are in a great spot here at 4-1 overall and 3-2ATS while the Cavaliers are 3-1 but 1-3ATS coming off a big loss @ Maryland in which they gave up 45 points to a very average Terp offense.
Take a look at that Eagles D to see a secret to their success.....they allow just 53 yards rushing per game, rank 4th in scoring allowing only 10.2ppg, are 39th in pass defense at 198 yards per game, and are 31st in turnovers netting 2.4 per game and are +8 in TO margin on the season. And if that's not good enough they can run and throw the pigskin. BC averages 167 yards per game on the ground and 246 thru the air and have WON THE STATS IN EVERY GAME so far this season....beating BYU in Provo 20-3, whipping Army 44-7, losing at Florida State 28-27 despite winning the stats 380-256, winning 16-13 at Clemson racking up 385 yards to the Tigers 251 in Death Valley, and shutting down Ball State 38-0 rolling up 471 net yards to BSU's 159.
Virginia's schedule doesn't have a Florida State or Clemson on it, or even an away game at BYU for that matter. The Cavs opened by beating Western Michigan 31-19 despite giving up 357 yards, beat that's not your mother's Syracuse 27-24, beat Duke....no not Coach K's team, and last week lost to Maryland 45-33 surrendering 570 yards in total offense. Yikes! UVA's offense doesn't look too bad on paper, passing for 220 yards per game and running for 176, but they average 1.3INTs per game and 1.8 TOs per game, and look at the Sisters of the Poor they've played! They'll get another chance against a strong parochial team this weekend, and BC is on a mission.....pun intended....their looking at the ACC title and VA is a small hurdle in that quest!

[BaMan]

GL Joe!!:thumbs: :thumbs: :prtytme:

[joepa66]

NORTHERN ILLINOIS -3 vs. Miami, OH
Don't let the names fool ya in this game.....or the records! NIU is just 1-3 on the season but 2-1ATS, while the Redhawks are 2-2 in both categories. However when ya delve deeper into the numbers and schedule everything points to a why the Huskies are a favorite adding that they are at home in the corn of Dekalb.
Miami's schedule features Ohio State in their opener where they lost 34-14, and followed that game with a 38-37 loss to Central Michigan giving up 569 total yards of offense to the Chipps. The Redhawks then traveled to Kent and won 27-10 but the amazing thing is that they allowed Kent their biggest game rushing on the season of 176 yards and over 300 yards passing and this is without Josh Cribbs, and also to a team who's leading rusher had his highest game rushing of the season last week vs. Eastern Michigan with 54 yards???? Yes that's right! And then the Redhawks beat a lowly freshman laden Cincinnati squad 44-16 and got 4 free gifts in that game.
The Huskies have loaded their pre-season MAC schedule with better competition and they have been up to the task. NIU opened with a 33-17 loss at Michigan and it was much closer and could have been much different had they not had 4TOs and only lost the stats 447-411. They lost 38-37 to Northwestern and won the stats 539-502 with one TO, bombed Tennessee Tech 42-3 winning the stats 583-205 and won the stats vs. Akron although losing 48-42 in OT but did have 486 yards to go with 2 more costly turnovers. TOs have been costly to the Huskies as they average 2.5 TOs per game but their offense is a high powered. They rank 21st with 209yards rushing and 308 yards passing ranked 16th. Miami's pass D ranks 108th giving up 291 yards per game. I look for the Huskies to be almost unstoppable because the Redhawks have a penchant for giving up the big play this year. It's tough to win on the road in the MAC and Dekalb is not an easy place to play!

[Florida Shark]

GL joepa!

[joepa66]

AKRON -10 vs. Buffalo

Two MAC teams on different ends of the spectrum in the Eastern Division.....Akron at 1-1 in conference play and Buffalo at 0-1, Akron at 2-2 overall and 3-1ATS while Buffalo is 0-4 overall has lost 5 straight games and 35 of their last 39 and during that span are 3-22 in MAC play. All 3 of their wins in that span have come at home but I don't look for it to happen this weekend.
The Zips have 4 of their next 5 games on the road and really couldn't afford that home loss last week to Central Michigan because they now have to go to Bowling Green, Miami, OH, and Ball State so this road game is a must win. In that loss to the Chipps the Zips had 313 first half yards but were held to 41 yards on 10 plays in the second half due to 4 TOs.....quite unlike the Zips team that hung in vs. Purdue although losing 49-24, went on the road and beat a great defensive Middle Tennessee team 17-7, beat Northern Illinois 48-42 in OT before the 31-17 debacle vs. Central. Akron QB Luke Getsy was 30/57 vs. the Chipps, 4th most passing in history even surpassing the great one Charile Frye in completion and atttempts, and has 1278 yards passing in just 4 games this year 4 yards ahead of Frye's record setting pace in his senior season.
In the head to head UA is 4-2ATS and has won all 6 meetings with Buffalo averaging 35ppg to the Bulls 15ppg and have covered the last two meeting in a row. Akron ranks 9th in passing in the nation at 339 yards per game and just 3 INTS on the year, and their O-line has allowed just 5 sacks on the season. WR Domenik Hixon will be pivotal in this game as always, and almost single-handedly destroyed CMU with 273 all purpose yards.
The Zips are scoring 26.5ppg to Buffalo's 6ppg. The Bulls are ranked 111th in rushing with just 80ypg and 98th in passing with just 162ypg. The Buffalo D has not been too stout either and force just 0.5 TO's per game something UA's offense has failed to do. The Bulls lost to UConn 38-0, Cuse 31-0, Rutgers 17-3, and Western Michigan 31-21. The defense has made average running teams look great yielding 232ypg and 144ypg thru the air.

[payday]

GL joe :thumbs:

[saidzeppelin]

Very solid record JP and nice call on the No IL. I won a little $$$ on them last night as well. Good info on BC. I have not seen Virg or BC play but BC always seems to be a solid team with very good coaching. I do not think many teams want BC on their schedule. I know they screwed up ND more than once.. BOL to you..
:prtytme:

[bigbag12]

GL joe..nice hit last night

[Q-Unit]

schooly D is fat cake yo

[MParris86]

Keep on rollin' in those MAC games bro....:thumbs:

[joepa66]

ARIZONA STATE -8.5 vs. Oregon

The Ducks go into the Valley of the Sun with the better overall record at 4-1 overall, but that "better" record includes wins over Houston (38-24), Montana (47-14), Fresno State (37-34 and they lost the stats), and Stanford 44-20. Their lone loss came in their bowl game for this year in a 45-13 pounding by SoCal in which the green and yellow jumped out to a 13-0 lead before wearing themselves out and giving up 593 yards of total offense to the Trojans.
The Sun Devils are 3-2 overall and 4-1ATS, and are also 5-4 SU in the series but 7-2ATS including covering the last 3 games in a row! ASU's schedule features a blowout of Temple 63-16 where they racked up 559 yards of offense, a 35-31 stunner at the end loss to LSU even though they won the stats 560/434, a 52-21 whipping of Northwestern where they rolled up 773 yards of offense, a 42-24 waxing of Oregon State where they were +6 in TOs, and a disappointing letup loss to SoCal 38-28 where they were -4 in TO margin.
The ASU offense is ranked 2nd in the nation in passing with 386ypg going against the 95th rated pass defense yielding 263 yard per game. The Devils also run for 170ypg vs. the Ducks D that only gives up 117 per game, but Oregon opponents haven't had to run the ball against them much! The Devils also average 43ppg which is 8th in the nation. Expect the Ducks to throw the ball as well because they haven'f found their running game as yet with just a 130ypg average. But flying Ducks beware, the Devil D averages 2.6 takeaways per game and this is not a Montana, Stanford or Houston defense.

[hackman]

keep em comin Joe.....GL this weekend

[cardinals]

gl joe

[DJTranks]

GL Joe!!

[Pincenzo]

GL Joe...I like Wyoming... :thumbs:

[ToP]

GL Joepappy

[PackAttack]

GL JoePa!!

[joepa66]

WYOMING -6 vs. TCU

Banking on the fact that the Cowpokes can throw the ball and they do it rather well. They just have to hold off the push that the Horney Toads get from their big D line. However, lately that has been rather easy for TCU opponents who have thrown for 930 yards in the last 3 games.
The TCU Defense has given up 208 yards passing to Utah, 517 to BYWho, and 245 to New Mexico. The Frogs have been the beneficiary of lots of gifts lately, 5TOs from New Mexie, 3TOs from BYU, 2 from Utah. Wyoming has capitalized from mistakes as well getting 3 TOs from Ole Miss and UNLV, and 2 from the Air Force...all wins! The Cowboys are 5-0ATS on the season and 2-0ATS @ home and average 247 yards passing per game and TCU's D plays right into that average giving up 240 yards per game.
A big part of both teams' success has been their ability to force turnovers on defense. The two rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the Mountain West in turnover margin. TCU leads the league in turnover margin, with a +8 margin, and also leads in forcing turnovers, having forced 16 opponent turnovers. Wyoming is No. 2 in the league in turnover margin, with a +5 margin, BUT LEADS IN COMMITTING THE FEWEST TURNOVERS having turned the ball over only 7 times.
TCU's O barely outscores their D in ppg average 30ppg/26ppg. They do have wins over down Oklahoma 17-10, Utah 23-20, BYU 51-50, and New Mexico 49-28, and a 21-10 loss vs. SMU for a 4-1 overall record. And word on the street is that their starting QB Tye Gunn is still out for the game, he did not play vs. New Mexico and they didn't need him too. Wyoming is also 4-1 on the year having lost down in the swamp 32-14, beat LA Monroe 38-0, won @ Air Force 29-28, @ Ole Miss 24-14, and beat UNLV last week 42-17. It's a big WAC showdown and the driver's seat is up for grabs. Wyoming has grabbed national attention and votes and are ranked 34th in the nation, a big win this week at home could propel them into the top 25 and believe it or not they would be just 1 win away from being bowl eligible!

[SkinsFan]

Like your analysis on Akron... I might tail...

[Dancally]

GL Joepa...like the Purdue Pick:yeah:

[Eagles2005SB]

Like Akron alot Joe ... gl with all picks

[joepa66]

GEORGIA +3 vs. Tennessee

Both teams struggled last week, no doubt in anticipation of this annual tussle.......
The Bulldogs are 4-0 on the season while the Vols are 3-1, however both teams sport horrible 1-3ATS records so I wouldn't want to be the favorite in this game. Both teams have stout run defenses with UGA holding 3 of its' opponents to under 100 yards rushing at 43, 49 and 88; while UT has held 4 opponents under 100 yards are well...2 in the 50s, one 60+ and one 98. But Georgia's defense seems to have a little more bite to it.....forcing 3.5 turnovers per game, they are +8 in TO margin on the season, and the most yardage they have given up on the season was 292 to offensive juggernaut Boise State and lots of those came at mop up time in a 48-13 Dawg rout!
UGA can do it on both sides of the ball if you will and their QB has already found his way while UT has struggled to find consistency.....vs. Boise they Bulldogs rolled up 574 yards of offense with 394 coming thru the air, vs. So Carolina they rammed thru for 238 yards on the ground, vs. LA Monroe they ran for 280 and passed for 263, and vs. Missy State they again eclipsed the 300 yard passing mark with 312! The Dawgs average 198ypg rushing and 270ypg passing......on D the Dawgs allow just 87 yards rushing and 172 passing. Tennessee is 4th against the run giving up 67ypg, and 205ypg passing. On offense the Vols run for 111ypg and pass for 219 thanks to a resurgent Clausen. However the Vols still struggle to find the mark with just 50% pass completions and 1.3INTs per game.
I'll take the points and the better defense in a mathcup that has seen some brutal hitting over the years. The UT secondary had better be ready to tackle and make some plays because the Dawgs are coming through!

[joepa66]

BP's FADE 'EM SPECIAL
YTD: 1-0

UCLA -1 vs. California
Lots of offense and lots of scoring with both teams averaging over 40ppg.....Bruins have covered the last 2 meetings, they have the better D and are +7 in TO margin on the year. Me thinks they have more weapons that Cali......GL

:prtytme:

[HOMEDAWG]

GL Joepa:thumbs: BTW, where's that osu/psu pick?

[Pee Wee]

Jo...all over the Boilermakers. I have watched every Iowa game and see this as an early Xmas gift. Boilers steamroll by 14 points!! GL!:mad:

[The War Dogs]

Good luck Joe!

[joepa66]

UPDATED YTD: 25 - 18 - 3
UNITS: +8.5
Last Week: 4-3