JoePa's CFB Week #5

[joepa66]

UPDATED YTD: 17 - 12 - 3
UNITS: +6.5
Weds. 0-1
Thurs. 1-0
Friday: 0-1-1
Saturday: 5-0
The Week: 6-2-1

The football gods were kind last week so let's get this week off to a good start and keep the momentum rolling. Iowa sucks, I was at the Ohio State game and they are just plain horrible! And Joe, well what can I say but that was an important road win and the first time since 1999 that the Lions are 4-0 and won a big ten road opener.....

THIS WEEKS EARLY LEANS - Check back later for the posted picks!

Tuesday -
FRESNO STATE -10 vs. Toledo

Wednesday -
CINCINNATI +13.5 vs. Miami, OH

Thursday -
AIR FORCE +5.5 vs. Colorado State

Saturday -
ILLINOIS +18 vs. Iowa
COLORADO Pk vs. Okie State
MARYLAND +3 vs. Virginia
CLEMSON -6 vs. Wake Forest
ARMY +10.5 vs. UConn
MINNESOTA -2.5 vs. Penn State
TEXAS -14.5 vs. Mizzou
ARIZONA STATE +16.5 vs. SoCal
UCLA -21 vs. Washington
BOWLING GREEN -28 vs. Temple
NOTRE DAME +3 vs. Purdue
SOUTH FLORIDA +23 vs. Miami, FL
VANDERBILT -15.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
UTEP -2 vs. Memphis

[saidzeppelin]

Bust'em up JP..Nice record. Keep up the good work.. :prtytme:

[tedward]

Joepa, what's going on with the Fresno line? My book has them at -12.5. Does that mean the public's on Fresno and they're trying to get plays on Toledo?

[joepa66]

Thanks Said.....:cool:
Tedward, looks as if the money is coming in on the Bulldogs and the the books are trying to even out their plays.....plus Toledo QB Gradkowski is listed as questionable/probable for the game thus some additional line inflation.....

[tedward]

Thanks Joepa. I'm hoping the line will come down closer to gametime. I'm with you on Fresno, wish I would have gotten the -10 earlier. GL:thumbs:

[quackattack]

Joepa I tail you quite a bit on alot of your picks and love your writeups but I'm curious what you see in the Iowa Illinois game I see Iowa winning handily. Also give me your take on ASU and USC I already ran a post on this and took USC minus 16.5 but I always like to hear another perspective. With you on several except those two and I also like Purdue at home. GL and thanks in advance.

Quack

[Eagles2005SB]

gl joepa like utep and arizona state

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Minny, Texas & ND :yeah:

Kill 'em bro! :thumbs:

[Q-Unit]

GL Joe, with ya on 2 of 3.

nice start for the nittanies....

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=103068

still early but its a step...

LOL just a refresher for you, though they havent done a good job of covering, but hey wins are wins through the eyes of those thick bottle glasses!:thumbs:

[birdsfan5]

GL Joepa

[THE POSSUM]

My book is at 13.5 I have never seen a line move this fast before 15 minutes ago it was 11

[BIGBALLER]

GL with the plays joepa!!!:thumbs:

[acefrehley24]

BOL this week JoePa!


:thumbs:

[BoKnows]

GL JP!!Looks like we will be in the same boat on a few again this week!:gulp: :yeah:

[golotb]

My book has the line know at 14 is the money just pouring in on Fres. St. or What? Joe Pa what ya think about getting 2 TD's with the rockets?:dunno:

[What ????]

GL joepa66:thumbs:

[joepa66]

FRESNO STATE -10 vs. Toledo
Holy Toledo, the Rockets are +7 in TO margin on the season and stand at 3-0 averaging a better than 54 pts. per game.......Whoa there boy, it's fairly easy to be +7 and average a heap of points when you're a playing the likes of Temple, Western Michigan and Western Illinois. Sure I like Toledo to challenge for the MAC title and they are probably favs to do so, but tonight they travel to Fresno to take on the Bulldogs, a 1-1 team with a penchant for playing the big boys close and making every other team cry for mercy. In their last game in Eugene against the Ducks the Bulldogs weren't phased by climbing up a rung and put up 34 points on their Pac-10 foes. Sure Oregon is now USC but it is a step up in competition and Autzen Stadium is not a friendly place to play. The Bulldogs are a bigger team and are not gracious hosts vs. non-conference foes.......even with Gradkowski I expect this to be a good game, for the most part, but after watching BGSU crash and burn against a west coast high powered offense and quick defense I just see more of the same for UT. Neither team let others run over them and have dined by the pass so far this season....this game may never get over unless they throw for a high completion percentage.

[Peterdragan66]

:gulp: Gl this week Joe, keep up the great work :prtytme:

[icruzwithbuzzon]

JoePa,

I was wondering your thoughts on Army covering against UConn as I see that its a lean of yours. I have UConn as my biggest play this week.

[Cashin in]

Like Fres St

love BG this weekend

GL joepa :thumbs:

[birdsfan5]

GL Joepa

[zenzenzen]

joepa you are the man, i find myself agreeing with almost all of your picks this week-great minds think alike? haha. gl to you my man...lets squeeze the book

:thumbs:

[joepa66]

AIR FORCE +5.5 vs. Colorado State
Falcons on a roll even though they sport a 2-2 record, however they are 3-1ATS failing to cover in a home loss to Wyoming. Trends for this game put AF at 14-5-1ATS before playing Navy while the Rams are 0-8-1ATS in their last 9 conference openers. In the Head to Head each team is 4-4-1ATS with AF covering last year 47-17 as 1.5pt dogs.
I'm convinced that nobody can completely shutdown the Flyboys since they've won the stats battle in all 4 of their games this season. They opened 2-0 winning over Washington 20-17 and San Diego State 41-29, lost @ home to a very good Wyoming team 29-28, and lost @ Utah 38-35 in a game which they didn't quit and took to surprised Utes to the closing bell....the Falcons HAVE HAD OVER 200 YARDS RUSHING AND PASSING IN EVERY GAME except for Wyoming when they were held to 53 yards rushing BUT they had 286 yards passing....and their D was up to challenge limiting the Cowpokes to 68 yards rushing! AF averages 257 yards rushing per game on the season and 181 passing and the Rams give up 188 yards on the ground and 266 thru the air.
CSU will throw the ball alot since their ground game only averages 137 yards per game.....the Rams throw for 292 yards per game but have averaged 1.7INTs per game.

[dead garcia]

not sure about tonite yet though.....

[joepa66]

CLEMSON -6 vs. Wake Forest
To me this game looks very lopsided.....Clemson although they are 2-2 overall they are 3-1ATS while Wake Forest is a disappointing 1-3 overall and 0-4ATS. The Tigers are 7-2 in the Head to Head matchup averaging 27ppg while Wake averages 19ppg. In the Head to Head ATS both teams are 4-4-1ATS and Wake has covered the last two. But the teams have played very different competition......
The Tigers opened with a win over Texas A&M 25-24 winning the stats, beat Maryland 28-24 and were +2 in TOs for the game, lost to Miami,FL 36-30 even though they won the stats, and lost to BC 16-13 last week even though they were again +2 in TOs.....for the season Clemson averages just 0.3 TOs per game.
Wake won the stats in their first 3 games but lost to Vandy 24-20, Nebraska 31-3, but managed to outlast East Carolina 44-34. Last week they lost the stats and the game to Maryland 22-12 and the Deacons aveage 2 TOs per game.
Clemmie's D average for rusing and passing is sub 200 in both categories for the year: 165 rushing/192 passing and Wake cannot pass averaging 129 yards per game (ranked 113th), but 230 yards rushing. Shut down the run, you shutdown the Demon Deacons! Their running prowess is skewed by 2 games when they had 407 rushing vs. ECarolina and 294 in their first game vs. Vandy, sandwiched in between were an 111 yard effort vs. Maryland and 130 vs. Nebraska.

[DJTranks]

GL Joe!!

[Q-Unit]

Originally posted by joepa66


FRESNO STATE -10 vs. Toledo

Wednesday -
CINCINNATI +13.5 vs. Miami, OH



:thumbs:

lets get em with Cincy tonight :gulp:

[shorts]

GL Joepa! Hope your back is feelin good because you're going to have 230 pounds on it with that Cinci pick!

I'm going to guess I'll have Cinci +10 tonight.

[TripleH]

GL - I am on board with you:Cinci +10
H3

[joepa66]

VANDERBILT -14.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
Everything points to a Commodore win here.....Vandy is 4-0 overall and 3-1ATS while MTSU is 0-3 and 1-2ATS. Vandy averages 20ppg while MTSU scores just 7ppg. Vandy is ranked 19th in passing with 286ypg and runs for 181 a game while MTSU is ranked 103rd in the nation in rushing and passing at 92 yards on the ground and 158 thru the air. Vandy averages 2.5 takeaways per game while Blue Raiders average 2 fumbles on offense per game and 1 INT per game. Vandy has played a pretty solid schedule winning @ Wake Forest 24-20, @ Arkansas 28-24, and won against Ole Miss 31-23 and also be Richmond 37-13. MTSU lost to Bama 26-7, Akron 17-7 but also lost 14-7 against North Texas. Their D is thier strength as they only allow 19ppg. Vandy will win, but can they cover? The Raiders have to be getting road weary....and this line has already dropped a point and here we are at only mid-week. They only had 54 yards rushing vs. Akron in their last outing which was nearly 2 weeks ago.....and if Vandy can get by the pivotal second quarter of this game they will cover....., MTSU has not scored in any quarter of a game this season except for the 2nd Qtr, unbelievable!

[joepa66]

Whoa there guys....that's just an early lean......after further review I don't like that game but if'n I still did I would be siding with the doggie for sure....better values out there, however....
I ain't laying nothing on that game....but GL to yous guys!

[golotb]

great call last night I should have know better!!

[Q-Unit]

Originally posted by joepa66
Whoa there guys....that's just an early lean......after further review I don't like that game but if'n I still did I would be siding with the doggie for sure....better values out there, however....
I ain't laying nothing on that game....but GL to yous guys!

sneaky! LOL

[WildBillPicks7]

GL Joe...Go Air Force!!

Vandy could be the Utah from 2004 in 2005? They surely are playing better than I originally figured they would on the year.

Clemson off two OT games back to back and Wake starting Randolph this weekend at QB. Lots of inner turmoil in Winston-Salem(home of WF) and griping between coaches... MTSU always tough in their dog role...as well...toughy game..GL with it!!

Nail the man this week!!

WB:thumbs:

[shorts]

Come on Joepa 230 pounds to much for ya!! LMAO!!! I'm not going hog wild on this one but after looking at some of the numbers I still like Cinci! Think the dog is gonna be close!

BOL to ya!

[ToP]

GL JoePa:thumbs:

[Pirate]

GL Joepa...really love the Clemson bet...they should roll...very soft line right now

[joepa66]

MARYLAND +3.5 vs. Virginia
The Cavaliers are 3-0 coming into this game but just 1-2ATS while the Terrapins are finally getting to their feet even at 2-2 overall and just 1-3ATS. Like the Terps in a doggie role at home especially in this series where they are 5-4ATS BUT covering the spread in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Virginia has played a light schedule so far beating MAC cellar dweller Western Michigan 31-19, Syracuse 27-24, and ACC non power Duke 38-7......and they still commit 1.7 fumbles per game and also 1.7 INTs per game. Their D ranks 22nd vs. the run at only 91 yards per game yielded but again, you have to look at who they have played. The offense averages 189ypg rushing and 203 passing.
Maryland won their opener vs. Navy 23-20, lost to a good Clemson team 28-24 even though they won the stats 344-292 in that game, lost to West Virginia 31-19 and had 2 TOs, and last week won at Wake Forest 22-12. Their D ranks 5th in the nation vs. the pass giving up 123 yards per game, even though their opponents haven't been Top 10 teams, they are still better that Virginia's.....and they also give up 193 yards rushing per game and against some pretty sound running teams in Wake, Clemson, and wVU. The Terps offense has lived by the pass averaging 241 yards per game and just 119 on the ground.
The jury has been out on Maryland, but at 2-2 the Fridge has a chance to make some noise at home vs. an overrated Cavalier squad. I'll side with the home doggie here!

[bigbag12]

BoL joepa :thumbs:

[joepa66]

BOWLING GREEN -28 vs. Temple
Thanksgiving has come early to BGSU and they will dine on Owl meat instead of Turkey this weekend. BG has come home finally after playing their first 3 games on the road and in some pretty tough places to play....they are 1-2 having beaten Ball State in Muncie, lost to Bosie State on the smurf turf, and lost a shootout in Madison to Wisconsin. Still the Falcons offense rolls on, averaging 369 yards passing and 106 yards rushing....and they have Omar Jacobs, who was shall we say slightly embarrassed by his performance in Boise where he only threw for 220 yards after 458 and 428 yard games in this first two outings. BGSU is 3-1ATS vs. Temple having won 70-16 last year in Philly as 7.5pt FAVS. I see more of the same here.
The Owls are plain horrible, and two weeks ago Toledo had them down by about 40 and laid down giving Temple a feel-good back door cover against the mighty Rockets.....but look at their stats....the O is ranked 111th in rushing at 78ypg, and their passing attack is ranked 100th at 165ypg. Thing are not much better on the defensive side were they rank 106th vs. the run giving up 227ypg and 61st in passing giving up 228ypg.
Compare the two against a common opponent, don't know why I'm wasting time to do this but here goes....vs. Wisconson....BG had 458 yards passing/Temple had 56, BG had 107 yards rushing/Temple had -11, BG scored 42 points losing 56-42/Temple scored 0 losing 65-0 and that was the score at the end of the 3rd Qtr.
It's a Homecoming of sorts for BG being their first homer of the season and really good for what ails them! The table is set boys, dig in!

[golotb]

Loven the Turtles

[saidzeppelin]

JP66,


I always wondered what owl tasted like, must taste like chicken.(LOL). I have not seen Temple play, but based on the ass kickings they have absorbed so far, this has to be one demoralized team and Omar and company is not the cure for Owl flu.. If they are half as bad as Cinci was last night they will lose by 50 or more. I may ride this one as well. BOL my man.. :prtytme:

[dead garcia]

very prudent move....gl the rest of the weekend my friend....I be thinking I will be adding the Force tonight as well.....

[joepa66]

Thanks GO....glad to be riding with ya:thumbs:

Said...trust me, they are just downright flatout plain bad......and BG will be out to prove the Wisky game was no fluke, the door is open if ya wanna jump in....

Dead....something was wrong from the get go on that one. Betts and Miami have not impressed me but I didn't wanna believe that Cincy was that bad......GL to you as well and watch for #37 Tony Norman the long snapper for AF, that flyboy is my cousin....his bro #58 is the long snapper at Ohio State.

[golotb]

Lets do it tonight...I'm flying with the airmen after reading your writeup and a little research...hammer time....

[Underdog88]

gl JoePa66:thumbs:

[bookiekilla]

GL!

[Rammajamma32]

JoePa-

On the Maryland game:

I'm a UVA alum, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson, our best offensive lineman, and Ahmad Brooks, our best defensive player (LB) look to be out for this game. Brooks might see limited action, but I'll be he's not 100%. I like the Maryland pick, and wanted to give you my full endorsement, as well as the injury info. GL!

[What ????]

GL joepa66:thumbs:

[BoKnows]

Originally posted by joepa66
AIR FORCE +5.5 vs. Colorado State
Falcons on a roll even though they sport a 2-2 record, however they are 3-1ATS failing to cover in a home loss to Wyoming. Trends for this game put AF at 14-5-1ATS before playing Navy while the Rams are 0-8-1ATS in their last 9 conference openers. In the Head to Head each team is 4-4-1ATS with AF covering last year 47-17 as 1.5pt dogs.
I'm convinced that nobody can completely shutdown the Flyboys since they've won the stats battle in all 4 of their games this season. They opened 2-0 winning over Washington 20-17 and San Diego State 41-29, lost @ home to a very good Wyoming team 29-28, and lost @ Utah 38-35 in a game which they didn't quit and took to surprised Utes to the closing bell....the Falcons HAVE HAD OVER 200 YARDS RUSHING AND PASSING IN EVERY GAME except for Wyoming when they were held to 53 yards rushing BUT they had 286 yards passing....and their D was up to challenge limiting the Cowpokes to 68 yards rushing! AF averages 257 yards rushing per game on the season and 181 passing and the Rams give up 188 yards on the ground and 266 thru the air.
CSU will throw the ball alot since their ground game only averages 137 yards per game.....the Rams throw for 292 yards per game but have averaged 1.7INTs per game.

Agreed!Nice work!Way to lay off the Bearkitty's:yeah: Wish I had of as well:bang: Gl with all your plays great information as usual!

[golotb]

How was the golf? Its time to start capping games!! LOL

[travmarley]

Will be enjoying owl meet on saturday as well!!


GL!!!:thumbs:

[joepa66]

Thanks for the infor Jamma:thumbs: :yeah:
That's the kind of stuff that makes this site work for all of us....

BO and GO.....thanks but damn the flyboys forgot something didn't they....their D fense.....:puke: Sorry to all who tailed, let's get it back this weekend!

Man I suck at golf too....LMAO hadn't played since about a month before I hurt my back and I couldn't hit anything.....:flush:

[Dancally]

Good Luck this weekend JoePA!!!!

[joepa66]

BP's FADE'EM SPECIAL

Nebraska +5.5 vs. Iowa State
Both are 3-0 and 1-1ATS.....The Clones force 3.3 TOs per game and the Huskers only allow 5.3ppg. Head to Head the Huskers are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS including covering 6 of the last 8 meetings.
The Clones beat Illinois State, along with horrible Iowa (but the Hawkeyes won the stats despite 4TOs) and beat Army even though the ISU was again outstatted.
The Big Red beat Maine, Wake Forest (and lost the stats), and beat Pitt (and lost the stats to the Panthers are well).
BP see's a stingy D shutting down an anemic O in a low scoring affair for Rothko1000's Birthday Celebration.

:beer2: :thumbs: :prtytme:

[birdsfan5]

GL Joepa get the man this weekend:thumbs:

[golotb]

Joe Pa were did that huskers number come from?

[joepa66]

UPDATED YTD: 21 - 15 - 3
UNITS: +7.5
Tuesday: 1-0
Thursday: 0-1
Saturday: 3-2
Last Week: 4-3

:puke: but still on the plus side at least.....:thumbs:

GO...early week line from Pinnacle