Info on "fading the public"

[SICKUMBOY]

I read most of the discussions on "fading the public" yesterday. It seems like each individual has his own theory on this subject, and I'm not here to change anyone's mind. Just wanted to throw in my thoughts and record on the situation.

I do like to look at the % of the public on each game. However in order for me to bet on a game, I need 80% of the public to to be on one side. That's all I bet. No teasers, no parlay's, no RR etc.
All I bet is NFL.

Enough about me, here are the numbers: ( these #'s are from sportsbook). I've read how people do not like these #'s b/c its a book, but I wanted to let you know the source. I actually use BODOG.

Games where the public is 90% or higher y-t-d NFL

Week 1 -- GB/DET over 46.5, results 17-3 -- WINNER
Week 2 -- STL/ARIZ over 45.5, results 17-12- WINNER

Y-T-D -- 2-0

Games where the public is 80% or higher y-t-d nNFL

Week 1 -- 83% Denver -4, -- WINNER
Week 1 -- 87% Cincy -3.5, -- LOSER
Week 1 -- 83% NYJ/KC over - WINNER
Week 1 -- 89% STL -7 , WINNER
Week 1 -- 86% PHIL/ATL over, -- WINNER
Week 2 -- 84% BALT -3.5, -- WINNER
Week 2 -- 80% PITT - 5.5, -- LOSER
Week 2 -- 87% IND/JAX over, -- WINNER
Week 2 -- 89% MINN/CINCY over, -- WINNER
Week 2 -- 80% NE/CAR over 44, -- PUSH
Week 2 -- 82% ATL +1, -- WINNER
Week 2 -- 82% GB -5.5, -- WINNER
Week 2 -- 81% SD +3, -- PUSH

Y-T-D -- 9-2-2

TOTAL OVER 80% -- 11-2-2

I've also run the numbers for 70%'s & 60%:

70% -- y-t-d = 6-11
60% -- y-t-d = 3-8

Your winning percentage sure drops if you start "fading the public", anything under 80%.

Now i'm not looking to stir up any contraversy, I know I've never posted B4, I know its just my word that I've bet these games, and I'm not saying that they will win everytime.

What I am saying is that most people lose, including myself if I pick games because I like them. These are the only games I play. I play the same amount on each game, and I put zero thought or studying into it. Also, I do not bet on a game until 5 minutes B$ the game. Remeber have a system and add self control and your winning will increase.

As of right now, 81% on DALLAS. If this number remains at 80% or higher I will be betting the SKINS with the points.

I hope I din't offend anyone with my 2sense. I've been playing since 1990

[Andre]

You have the Rams and Cards over as a winner yesterday, the under came in FYI.

[Skw5r]

he has it as a winner because he faded the public opinion which was for the OVER, and he won

[SICKUMBOY]

faded the STL/ARIZ over.

DALLAS down to 79%.

[bigbag12]

Originally posted by Andre
You have the Rams and Cards over as a winner yesterday, the under came in FYI.

indeed the under hit. what he means is 80 % was on the over so if you went against the public(the under) you would have won.

ty for the info.

with that said LOL, is there a website to see the %'s of who bet who???

[SICKUMBOY]

the site i referd to is sportsbook.co

Note -- this is a online book. I do not use this book, its the only place I've found these %'s at. Also, this is only 1 book's numbers.

If you scroll down to the nfl lines, you will find this info.

Currently NO -- 54% WASH - 19%
NYG - 46% DAL-- 81%
over - 71% over -- 53%
under - 29% under - 47%

These numbers are constantly changing. I look a few minutes B4 gametime

GL to all 2night

[birdsfan5]

Good stuff Sickum

[Rawhide]

Hey folks, help me cus I must be stupid but:

1. why would the book share this info and be straight about posting the %'s

2. Why would the book take action so lopsided to one side exposing themselvs to getting crushed on having to much action one way , unless the %'s are before they " lay-off" action to another book.

???

[Andre]

Originally posted by Skw5r
he has it as a winner because he faded the public opinion which was for the OVER, and he won

Got it, my bad.

[Skw5r]

wagerline.com also shows the consensus percentages

[Skw5r]

hey sickum-

do those percentages from sportsbook reflect total money wagered on each side or individual # of bets placed on each side. i think on wagerline its just # of wagers.

[Stifler's Mom]

Numbers of actual wagers on each side. Has nothing to do with the actual money taken in on each side by the book.

[Horfin]

You could have 80% of the number of bets on say the Giants, but 80% of the money is on the Saints.

They will never (I don't think) tell you the percent of Money on each team.

This is why they share it. Also they probably share it so that people will fade the public so the numbers even out.

Horf!n

[Huego]

yea its number of wagers. when you see 80% on dallas and the line not moving it means the 20% that bet on washington are bigger players putting down enough money to even it out.

(this is if you believe books only want to collect the juice)

[SICKUMBOY]

Currently -- DALLAS -- 78%

Going to lay off of this one. Sometimes the best bet is the one that is not made.

GL to everyone else, will post next week with percentages.

[beermantm]

Any member that has been arround here for a while should already know all this information and if you don't it's most likely because you decided not to listen..................

There is more going on with your system than you may think and if you have a thorough understanding of theoretical hold percentages.............practical hold percentages..........and line shading you would understand why your system is working.

The reason why this system, as you precieve it to be, enjoys a higher ATS percentage is because there is no downside for the books themselves.

One thing that might not be understood is the books are not into gambling...........they hate it...........they want to make money all the time but it's hard to do it on that business without limiting liability when the opportunnity presents itself.

One other thing I heard said was that Vegas is smarter than us..........That is laughable............it's not all that hard to win when you have a 4.5% head start and increases gradually.

Although you have found a small fragment of what sportsbetting on the whole is like you truely need to know a whole lot more information before you get the big picture.........

I just don't have the time to explain it all out.........there is so much to it..........from the basics to the most advanced understandings.

keep this in mind though because it's an important thing to remember and sets the scene for understanding alot of things..............

THE WINNER PAYS THE JUICE (VIG CHARGES) NOT THE LOSER!!!!

[GMoney]

Originally posted by beermantm
Any member that has been arround here for a while should already know all this information and if you don't it's most likely because you decided not to listen..................

There is more going on with your system than you may think and if you have a thorough understanding of theoretical hold percentages.............practical hold percentages..........and line shading you would understand why your system is working.

The reason why this system, as you precieve it to be, enjoys a higher ATS percentage is because there is no downside for the books themselves.

One thing that might not be understood is the books are not into gambling...........they hate it...........they want to make money all the time but it's hard to do it on that business without limiting liability when the opportunnity presents itself.

One other thing I heard said was that Vegas is smarter than us..........That is laughable............it's not all that hard to win when you have a 4.5% head start and increases gradually.

Although you have found a small fragment of what sportsbetting on the whole is like you truely need to know a whole lot more information before you get the big picture.........

I just don't have the time to explain it all out.........there is so much to it..........from the basics to the most advanced understandings.

keep this in mind though because it's an important thing to remember and sets the scene for understanding alot of things..............

THE WINNER PAYS THE JUICE (VIG CHARGES) NOT THE LOSER!!!!


Will you write a book beerman? I know you always comment on these subjects and know alot about it all....I'd like to read as much as possible:thumbs:

[The War Dogs]

The real Key: The books don't gamble, we do.

[Johnny Racetracks]

Originally posted by Horfin
Also they probably share it so that people will fade the public so the numbers even out.

Horf!n

I think they share it so people tail the team with the higher % so the book gets more bets down on the side that is historically the wrong side to be on. If it's too good to be true then it probably is. Most bettors aren't as savvy as people around here so if they see a team getting 80% they think it's a bad line and an easy opportunity to beat the book. Like you said, it's not wager volume but number of bets.

[SICKUMBOY]

WOW, you guys really over-analyze everything.

The main point was, to be successful in gambling, or anything else in life, one needs to have a plan, stick to that plan and not waiver from it.

I've shared my plan with you guys, which has worked for me for years. I am not trying to convert anyone. just thought it might be useful for someone who has not been doing that well.

However if you have a better record this year than 11-2-2 (winning percentage of 85%), disregard my thoughts.

Skw5r -- I believe the % is the number of wages on each team. This is what I look for in a bet. If 10 out of 11 guys are betting the ind/jax over, I dont really care how much $$ is involved. If more people lose gambling than those who win, I'll always go against the losers/ public.

[SICKUMBOY]

Even though I didn't take the Skins 2night, I hope my post led a few people to bet the Skins.

[Johnny Racetracks]

The fade worked well this week for 70 % and up sides.

http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/lines_nfl.html

Dallas, Indy, Carolina, Philly, St. Louis ALL took over 70 % of bets and ALL failed to cover the spread.

MNF tonight: 66 % on Kansas City and guess what, they are getting creamed.

NICE SYSTEM! :thumbs:

[Johnny Racetracks]

Anybody feel like checking for 70 % and up plays for the NFL and posting them on this forum? I always forget to check since I heard about this system.

[dgr81]

Originally posted by Johnny Racetracks
Anybody feel like checking for 70 % and up plays for the NFL and posting them on this forum? I always forget to check since I heard about this system.

70% or more:

CIN 76%
IND 84%
TB 72%
NO 78%
OAK 71%

[Johnny Racetracks]

These are the fade plays as of 5 AM eastern Sunday morning, sides & totals:

A) Houston +10 vs Cincy

B) Under 42.5 Houston/Cincy game

C) Tenn +7 vs Indy

D) Under 46 Tenn/Indy game

E) Under 45.5 Philly/Kansas City game

F) Detroit +7 vs Tampa Bay

G) Under 34 Detroit/Tampa Bay game

H) Under 47 St. Louis/NY Giants game

I) NY Jets +7 vs Baltimore

J) Minnesota +6 vs Atlanta

K) Under 45 Minnesota/Atlanta game

L) Dallas +3 vs Oakland

M) Under 47 Dallas/Oakland game

N) Under 43.5 San Fran/Arizona game (Sunday night game Mexico City)

O) Under 43 Green Bay/Carolina game (Monday night game)

[abravefan11]

I'm new to this and have a quick question about your system.

The Sportsbook sheet you reference for your stats has 3 rows of percentages.

Side

Money

Total

Does the Side or Money percentage need to be 80% or more for you to bet?

Thanks for the help.

[mike333]

Originally posted by beermantm

THE WINNER PAYS THE JUICE (VIG CHARGES) NOT THE LOSER!!!!


:thumbs:

[cogresha]

so should we lose so we don't have to pay the charges? if so I'm well on my way to fortune! :cool:

[BIGBALLER]

Originally posted by cogresha
so should we lose so we don't have to pay the charges? if so I'm well on my way to fortune! :cool:



Everybody wants to be a comedian! :bang: Plz take your childish attitude elsewhere!:thumbs:

[beermantm]

so should we lose so we don't have to pay the charges? if so I'm well on my way to fortune!

Must be a south sider!!! (Bwaaahahahahahhaa)

Bigballer he probably can't help it......... everyone from Chicago is like that!!!

:booz:

[Patch]

hello all,

just wanted to make sure i understand this theory, when looking at this weeks lines, there is only 1 over 80%:

10/09
16:05 ET Indianapolis -14.0 93%
San Fran. 7%


according to the theory, we should lay money on san fran and take the +14, correct?

Patch

[beermantm]

Will you write a book beerman? I know you always comment on these subjects and know alot about it all....I'd like to read as much as possible

I should write a book and combine all the information I have found out there. I'm afraid though that there is a very limited market on the people who actually want to learn.............

Even people arround here who should know better still tend to argue........but there is no argument to be made. Long term results depend on certain factors and no matter what you do to try and beat it the math of the equation always wins.

:gulp:

[Paingod]

Originally posted by abravefan11
I'm new to this and have a quick question about your system.

The Sportsbook sheet you reference for your stats has 3 rows of percentages.

Side

Money

Total

Does the Side or Money percentage need to be 80% or more for you to bet?

Thanks for the help.

X2!! whick percentage are you looking at?

[Johnny Racetracks]

Fade plays had 7 wins & 8 losses in Week 4.

These are the fade plays for week 5, sides & totals:

A) Over 35 Chicago/Cleveland game - LOSS

B) New Orleans +3 vs Green Bay - LOSS

C) Under 43 New Orleans/Green Bay game - LOSS

D) New York Jets +3 vs Tampa Bay - WIN

E) Under 47.5 Seattle/St. Louis game - LOSS

F) Atlanta +2.5 vs New England - LOSS

G) Under 41 Tennessee/Houston game - LOSS

H) San Francisco +16 vs Indy - LOSS

I) Under 43 Carolina/Arizona game - LOSS

J) Dallas +3 vs Philadelphia - WIN

K) Under 43.5 Dallas/Philadelphia game - WIN

L) Under 38 Cincy/Jacksonville game - LOSS (Sunday night game)

M) Under 47 Pittsburgh/San Diego game - WIN (Monday night game)

[Stifler's Mom]

I am sick of this thread always coming back to the top

It is now closed

[Horfin]

how do you get a win on SD/PIT Under when it is only 10 EST?


SOrry Stiff this is bringing it back to the top.