Fading the Public Picks, It worked tonight

[adamfred]

I am new to this forum but have been betting on the NFL for many ages. The trend in the topic I am referring to is "Fading the Public." What I mean by fading the public is betting AGAINST popular belief, meaning betting AGAINST what everyone else thinks will happen. If you log onto NO LINKS they will give you a percentage of the total money that has been bet on each team. Lets face it, Vegas is smarter than you and Vegas is smarter than me. Vegas does not have Billions of dollars from people cleaning house on NFL games. Put your ego aside and admit, Vegas is smarter than all of us. They set the lines they set for a REASON. When you look at NO LINKS and see 90% of the money going on Green Bay +3, you think to yourself, "yeah thats an easy bet, Detroit looked AWFUL in their last preseason game", and nobody wants to bet on Detroit, Miami, or San Francisco. Well newsflash, those teams were 3-0 against the spread this week and Vegas CLEANED UP. Now if you were like me and "Faded the Public" and went against what everyone else was betting on these 3 teams, exactly what Vegas doesn't want you to do.... then you were 3-0. I know this isn't a new system, its been talked about many times before but I feel it is a system that should be utilized more often. It is almost impossible in the long run to bet the NFL and win, the average margin of victory is 4 points. Professional NFL gamblers only win 57% of the time. By looking at NO LINKS, if you faded the public you went 10-5 this weekend, thats 66% winning percentage! I would LOVE to hear all your thoughts on my theory and if any of you bet this way or have bet this way in the past. Lets hear your responses!!!! Thank you.
Adam

[woodfall]

Where do you find that on sportsbook? Used to check all the time, but have not used them in a while. Just looked and cant find it.

[Baseballer]

Basic system, until the colts come along where the public is 70% and cleans house. Sometimes you just have to stick with your own gut feeling and not look at public percentage, they tend to throw you off because not everyone wagers the same unit. The public is certaintly going to be on Philly tonight, so go Falcons.

[DoO'RaGz]

Originally posted by woodfall
Where do you find that on sportsbook? Used to check all the time, but have not used them in a while. Just looked and cant find it.


All you have to do is go to scores, and they have a list of all the games, and they have the % of wages on every game.

[tedward]

I don't think it's impossible to bet the NFL long term and win. I had a great season last year, and so far so good this year.

As far as fading the public, I don't see how that can make for a profitable system. Your looking at a short-term result. What are those some statistics from last season? What will the long term results be this year? I usually try to find the match-ups that don't make sense to the spread on that game. Sometimes, the odds makers get it wrong and the spread leans way too much in favor of one team. That's why we're a capping forum, to see what are the best games to jump on.

There's alot of great cappers here. I would bet most of them don't use the "fade the public" system.

[DoO'RaGz]

The public was 8-7 on sports book,

47% betted on Green Bay on the spread, 49% betted them on the ML. 90% public pick the game to go over .

[Silver & Black]

old system, I'm thinking that adamfred works for a Book, but I can't seem to put my finger on which one!!

:dunno:

[Daws1089]

his system actually sort of works, i use it but a bit differently. i look at the public and all the games that over 65% i take the team that isnt being bet huge by the public and tease it with another game that is over 65% public play. so you fade it when its over 65% and tease. cuz i have found that this hit around high 60's or 70 % last season, played it a bunch of times when it applied and usually won some. now its up to you which 2 or 3 or 4 games you decide to tease, but it usually works better with 2. yesterday i teased san fran to +12 and tampa to +12 and they both ended up winning outright. but just fading the public on the spread doesnt always come through, and neither does the tease, but it hits at a better rate. this does not apply to over/under bets though. just my 2 cents...

[cdhender]

Can someone tell me which books post the public betting percentages? Thanks.

[Roober]

I think that some of what hes saying has value. I tend to take a couple of games a week that i bet on purely due to public plays. However in order to factor in the whole part about "Vegas being smarter than us" you have to look at line movement. Anytime that the public is playing heavy to one side and yet the line isnt moving, thats when i tend to go against the public.

[Whistler]

Actually, SportsBook goes one step further. If you look towards the bottom of their 'Matchup' reports, they also offer "the betting public is correct when moving the line in TEAM A games xx% of the time"

For instance, here's the "stats" that they have for tonights MNF game:
(I know the rule about posting URLs, so for all practical purposes this is a copy/paste from "SportsBook")

"As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring ATLANTA in this game

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in PHILADELPHIA games 50.3% of the time since 1992. (83-82)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in PHILADELPHIA games 61.3% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (19-12)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ATLANTA games 47.7% of the time since 1992. (74-81)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ATLANTA games 50% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (14-14)

NO EDGE

As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game

The betting public is correct when moving the total in PHILADELPHIA games 57.6% of the time since 1992. (98-72)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in PHILADELPHIA games 58.1% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (18-13)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in ATLANTA games 45.7% of the time since 1992. (74-88)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in ATLANTA games 26.9% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (7-19)

Edge=Over "

gl,

-= Whistler

[SkinsFan]

People... the thing is... would you actually TRUST these numbers that are being provided by a BOOK??? Seems to me that the book might have some serious motivation to exxagerate the numbers, one way or the other.... If 90% are on team A, and the line moved the OTHER way.... then the book posting the REAL percentages would be like showing you their cards in a poker game.... don't buy into that bullshit.

[Q-Unit]

Originally posted by SkinsFan
People... the thing is... would you actually TRUST these numbers that are being provided by a BOOK??? Seems to me that the book might have some serious motivation to exxagerate the numbers, one way or the other.... If 90% are on team A, and the line moved the OTHER way.... then the book posting the REAL percentages would be like showing you their cards in a poker game.... don't buy into that bullshit.

man what a good point

Originally posted by Silver & Black
old system, I'm thinking that adamfred works for a Book, but I can't seem to put my finger on which one!!

:dunno:

I agree with this one too

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by SkinsFan
If 90% are on team A, and the line moved the OTHER way.... then the book posting the REAL percentages would be like showing you their cards in a poker game.... don't buy into that bullshit.


$$$$ moves the line, Not the number of bets..

example: 10,000 bets 70% on TEAM A & 30% on TEAM B


$10, 000,000.00 total bet, $8,000,000.00 of it could be bet on TEAM B with only 30% of the bets placed on TEAM B...

Therefore the line can move against the betting percentages..

SHARPS!!!!:beer2:

[cdhender]

I think the point Q is making is, how do you know the numbers are accurate, regardless of how they're derived?

What movitivation would a book have to provide accurate information? None really.

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by cdhender
I think the point Q is making is, how do you know the numbers are accurate, regardless of how they're derived?

What movitivation would a book have to provide accurate information? None really.



There are multiple sites that show the betting trends (sportsbooks & contest sites, & info sites), & most of the time they are within a couple of percentage points of each other. Looking everywhere, Ya just gotta know there are more on PHILLY then ATL tonight at about a 3-1 pace... :beer2:

[HOMEDAWG]

here's 2 unrelated sites:


A- # bets 25305 philly 70% atl 30%

B- no # just % Phila. 79% Atlanta 21%







:beer2:

[billsfan]

If you've bet on football long enough you don't need numbers to tell you who the public favorite is. I mean if you want to go look it up at a book site and get the "acutal" % then that's on you. but me personally i don't need numbers to tell me who the public is on. like homedawg said money makes a line move. so that's all the % i need when i fade the public.

[Florida Shark]

The best trend I have ever seen is that if you do not bet on the game, there is NO way you can lose.

Case in point, I did not bet on the IND/BAL game last night and guess what? I didn't lose. Never have! LOL :cool:

Can't wait till tonight! GL guys! :thumbs:

[beermantm]

I think the point Q is making is, how do you know the numbers are accurate, regardless of how they're derived?

What movitivation would a book have to provide accurate information? None really.

What would motivate them not to share the information??

None that way either.............the info does nothing but help them.........and you at the same time. Now they won't show you the money though..........They might have a reason or two not to share that with you.

Why would the info be purposefully inaccurate??? To drive action from one side to another?? Fair enough but then they could just move thier line again and maybe off a key number.

Not gonna get into this one to much but the information can be used to help make an informed choice.

[adamfred]

I do not work for a book I am just tired of seeing lines that look so obvious on paper then betting them and getting hammered. Can people please admit Vegas is smarter than all of us? Every line they lay is for a reason and it showed this week and is showed all of last year as fading the public worked about 61% of the time. Theres your long term result stat. The nay sayers can look no further than this last weekend to see the trend already beginning this NFL season. As for the Colts, the public was picking the Ravens until about an hour before game time when they went heavy on the Colts making them the publics pick. Sure there will be losses fading the public, but it will work around 60% of the time and like i said in the original post, professional gamblers win the NFL about 57% of the time. As for the person who said he had a great year last year and its not impossible to win the NFL long term, in my opinion he is flat out lying. You can make money betting the NFL, but in terms of wins and losses, you will be right around 50% or lower every single year. The key is to bet different amounts of money on games hoping to get lucky and win that big bet. If you bet the same amount of money on all your bets, by the end of the year you have LOST MONEY. Guaranteed. I appreciate the response though guys as you all have made valid points. Keep up the good work.
Adam

[HOMEDAWG]

What happens in vegas, stays in vegas...:gulp:

Can't agree with ya on changing the size of the bets, if ya bet $100.00 on 4 games and $500.00 on 1 game, and all 4 @ $100.00 wins and the $500.00 loses... you go 4-1 and lose money.. wrong way to do it my friend! :beer2:

[rjp]

I don't have the time to explain in detail right now but the books lose too. You can't just fade the public and win tons of cash (just ask Billy, lol :thumbs:).

Basically the books expect to hold a given % of all money they book. They limit liability based on limits and such and in the end want to even out the money bet on each side, not number of wagers.

Last year the books lost a ton of cash in the first few weeks. Public cleared house!

[adamfred]

That is why I said you bet big on the game you feel the strongest about and "hope" it comes through. You bet the same amount on every game you will NOT make money, just like in Blackjack. Blackjack and betting on the NFL are very similar. You hope to win that one big hand a shoe in blackjack just like you hope to win that one big bet in football every week. You do that you're up money, if not, you hope the smaller bets do well enough where you can almost break even. The house advantage percentage in blackjack is just about the same as the sportsbook advantage. Heed my words people, if a line looks to good to be true, more than 60% of the time... IT IS!!!!
Adam

[The War Dogs]

Betting is about situational selectivity and money management. The key is to try to find an element of the game that you find predictable and influential so that you have a clear advantage, at least in your mind, of the way the game should play out. Outside of that, I like broad trends "what happens in the first two weeks of the Nfl" historically and follow blindly. I see nothing wrong with that and usually you will end up with some pretty unusual picks that you wouldn't probably make yourself.

I never really thought about just solely fading the public. The problem is that there are periods where the public does well and periods where Vegas gets their money back and more. Thats why for now I stick with "situational selectivity" as my thing, not that I'm that good at it. I do understand the point, and certainly there are times when the right way to go is just the opposite of what seems obvious.

[HOMEDAWG]

BLACKJACK SAME AS SPORTSBETTING???? LMFAO




blackjack you got 1 opponent, sportsbetting you got multiple opponents...

both with a 50% chance of winning, but here is the problem,


in blackjack, bet 10 and lose, bet 20 and lose, bet 40 .. etc....
each hand dealt you are at 50% but it all evens out,

you are in the same game with the same opponent, ya gonna get it back..

you bet a football game, bet 10 and lose, then start chasing your bet, you will lose $$$... The problem here is, you are going to another game with a different opponent....

and dont forget the JUICE!!!!!!!





:beer2:

[Silver & Black]

Well adamfred....BOL to you this season, as stated earlier, by someone else, In my opinion it's not the number of PEOPLE on a side, it's the DOLLAR figures that need to be looked at, and a sports book will probably not give you that info correctly without some form of motivation.

As for adjusting bets....bottom line, if you "LOVE" a play, bet it. If you "LIKE" a play don't. People lose money when they bet games without doing their homework...and if you don't do your homework, might as well toss a coin!!

Comparing Sportsbetting to Black-jack. I've spent years counting cards, in doing so, I "Know" when the cards are in my favor. Sports betting is different. Your homework allows you to "Believe" you're looking in the right direction, but you really never know until the game is played. And when you count cards, and you know that they're in your favor, it's still no guarantee.

:prtytme:

[adamfred]

Well I hate being right. I really really do. TCU received 30% of the wagers tonight and of course, covered the spread. Vegas cleaned up on you 70% of people, AGAIN. Anyway, onto this coming NFL weekend -

Minnesota +3
San Fran +13.5
Buffalo +2.5
Oakland +1

All wagers are going against the public and could someone please explain to me the Atlanta and Seattle pick em spread?!?!?! I mean I'm ALL FOR fading the public, but I don't know if I can hop on Seattle for this game. But like i've always said, Vegas is smarter than us and I can almost guarantee they know something we don't. When they set this line they knew EVERYONE would go Atlanta and they plan on cleaning up. LOL they will probably get my money this one time too unless someone can give me an explanation of why this so seemingly mismatched game has a PK line. The only explanation I have is Atl will be drained from their emotional win at home on Monday night, its a short week for them, and maybe Vegas sees a letdown this coming weekend for them. Who knows but this bet seems too good to be true. Thanks guys.
Adam

[Daws1089]

fading the public doesnt always work dude. it only works when the line doesnt move and the people still stay heavy on one side. and even then there are no gurantees. the favorites will win sooner or later it all levels out. but stop talking down to us in your thread like you are better than us. and i only saw 62% on utah at wagerline. so not a huge public play. so ease off a little bit. and how are you fading the public on these plays, only 53% on phlly and 55% on cincinnatti. wouldnt a more suitable play be denver or carolina???

[rjp]

daws, adam doesn't realize it's about money wagered, not number of wagers. Who knows... maybe TCU actually had MORE money wagered? A few limit bets will outweight a ton of $20 wagers.

[adamfred]

LOL I realize its the amount of money, the system is still going against popular belief and betting with Vegas. And of course it doesn't work all the time, and yes all my picks are against the public. Last I checked if I bet on a team that has 45% of the money going on it thats against the public. lol.... anyway good luck to you all and we will see how it plays out

[Daws1089]

if you bet 45% public plays thats pretty much even in the betting world. thats not really going out on a limb

[Stifler's Mom]

When you are fading the public, what you want to fade is the public "opinion" (using last night's game for example....the public opinion was that Utah would steamroll a weak TCU defense, and -3.5 or -4 was just too easy) and they public opinion showed with 70% being on Utah.

The amount of $$ wagered on each side is irrelevant....

Playing against 55% or 58% is pointless also. That's not a very strong opinion, and the true public opinion may actually be with the side that has 42% or 45%, while the smarter bettors are the ones making up the rest of the wagers on the 55-58% side.

Also, you have to get a line that is set in your favor due to this public percetion....for example, a team getting points when really the TRUE line should be a pick em or the dog maybe even favored by a few points....or getting something like +18 in a rivalry game that ends in a close game year after year (South Carolina/Georgia was a good example last Saturday)

Remember, linesmakers could care less if the lines are accurate, or even close to it, as long as that line brings in the money they want on each side so they can make their vig.

Point being, there's ALOT more to it than just playing against the team the higer percentage is on.

[JB]

adamfred knows what he is doing guys....lets just sit back and watch him rake in the winnings with his brand new...patentent....original system called "fade the public"

I am going to sit back and take some notes and hopefully cash some of these plays myself!

[beancounter]

Originally posted by JB
adamfred knows what he is doing guys....lets just sit back and watch him rake in the winnings with his brand new...patentent....original system called "fade the public"

I am going to sit back and take some notes and hopefully cash some of these plays myself!


LOL :gulp:

[FearTheRaven]

I have noticed that fading the public works toward later in the year, mainly playoffs & the super bowl. Because the beginning of the year the linesmakers are not great at setting the lines because they don't know what each team has and can do. But towards the end of the year they get better and better, ultimately getting all the publics bets. But then again it can always come back to haunt you, because anything can happen man.

[HOMEDAWG]

Come on A-FRED, if ya gonna fade, make it BIG:

HOUSTON
CAROLINA
SEATTLE





:gulp:

[maroon_tiger]

Originally posted by adamfred
The only explanation I have is Atl will be drained from their emotional win at home on Monday night, its a short week for them, and maybe Vegas sees a letdown this coming weekend for them. Who knows but this bet seems too good to be true. Thanks guys.
Adam [/B]

give me a break... drained??!? and seattle aint drained from that highly competive loss in JAX?!?!

the defense did a wonderful job on t.o. on mnf, so i expect the falcons defense to get at matt hasselback.... and contain the recevers... the only way the seahawks will win is if alexander runs for 150+/2-3tds

i could see atlanta taking this cuz nobody will get to mike vick...

the games you need to be worried about, in terms of VEGAS MAKING A KILLING are..

indy(-9)
dal(-6)
no/nyg
nyj(-6)
bal(-3.5) {b/c they dont have boller}
philly{-13} (this spread is very big}


sometimes i wonder if vegas or bookies have any influence on the games, cuz some of the stuff that happened last weekend was ridiculous

[rjp]

Oh shit JB's right. :yeah:

[BillyBarooooooo]

Originally posted by adamfred
LOL I realize its the amount of money, the system is still going against popular belief and betting with Vegas. And of course it doesn't work all the time, and yes all my picks are against the public. Last I checked if I bet on a team that has 45% of the money going on it thats against the public. lol.... anyway good luck to you all and we will see how it plays out


Ahhh your full of shit! You would of gotten killed this year in bases playing your system! Its a fact the guys that followed this system this year over at SI got there balls kicked in! You also would have had your balls kicked in last year in the NFL cause the public cleaned house!!!!!! Why isn't that you come in hear and talk like you have just struck gold? Did the gambling gods summins you????


ALSO DO ME A FLAVOR! This isn't breaking news here at Ultimate capper! There are many that have been doing this for years. You just have to know what your doing! There is more to it than just what side the public is on........................

So stop with all the "I hate being right" bullshit we don't need it here. Why don't you just pick up your bags and hit the road, there are many AOL Chat boards that will welcome you with open arms....................


Your really a arrogant ass hole and your personality is conflicting with the members we have around here!!!!!!!!!!!


BB

[BillyBarooooooo]

Originally posted by adamfred
I would LOVE to hear all your thoughts on my theory and if any of you bet this way or have bet this way in the past. Lets hear your responses!!!! Thank you.
Adam


Your fucken theory???? I have been playing dogs and fading the public long before you! Who do you think you are coming into my house talking this nonsense???
Your theory this is too fucken funny!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I can't take it anymore!!!!

BB:puke:

[BillyBarooooooo]

Originally posted by adamfred
That is why I said you bet big on the game you feel the strongest about and "hope" it comes through. You bet the same amount on every game you will NOT make money, just like in Blackjack. Blackjack and betting on the NFL are very similar. You hope to win that one big hand a shoe in blackjack just like you hope to win that one big bet in football every week. You do that you're up money, if not, you hope the smaller bets do well enough where you can almost break even. The house advantage percentage in blackjack is just about the same as the sportsbook advantage. Heed my words people, if a line looks to good to be true, more than 60% of the time... IT IS!!!!
Adam


Your lucky Beerman is out of town for the week or he would eat this shit up!!! You are 100% wrong Adam!!!


ANOTHER THING DO NOT POST .COM or links to other sites or you will be banned! READ THE RULES AT THE TOP OF EVERY FORUM!!!!


BB

[BillyBarooooooo]

Ok Went over this past weekend from your site. Which I might adds is one sided cause it only represents one book! It does not I repeat DOES NOT REPRESENT VEGAS! It represents the action they are getting! If your going to do this you really need to open up your Horizon and get with a program that offers 5 or more books!

Sides went 3-2 with 30% or less
Totals wnet 3-3 with 30% or less

These are the closing numbers!
Miami 17% Winner
Cleveland 13% Loser
San Fran 11% Winner
Baltimore 23% Loser
Atlanta 21% Winner


BB

[BillyBarooooooo]

Now if you would have been playing Smart and watching where the Smart money went you would have went 2-0!

69% on Washington yet line moved from 6.5 to 5
79% on Philly yet line moved from 2 to 1


Smart money was where it was this past week!

As of Friday night there is no smart money moves! Will see what happens come Sunday!!!!


BB

[BillyBarooooooo]

Why are you not playing these plays???


Tennessee 11%
Houston 4%
Chicago 22%
Carolina 23%
Seattle 16%
Arizona 19%
Denver 26%
Washington 19%

:dunno:

BB

[mike333]

Whats up with this whole Vegas thing??? Really... how much of the betting public bets in Vegas...Not to mention your #s probably only cover one book. Try 45.

[rjp]

Billy, a move from 2 to 1 doesn't take a lot of cash... neither does the Washington move from 6.5 to 5... book doesn't have a huge risk on moving off those numbers so they just take action until they receive a set amount and then move!

[silence]

Where's the real "Adam", when u need him?:dunno: Has he retired or been recruited by Vegas?:confused:

[jazzman]

So stop with all the "I hate being right" bullshit we don't need it here. Why don't you just pick up your bags and hit the road, there are many AOL Chat boards that will welcome you with open arms....................




LMFAO- What i am trying to figure out was.......where did he get this genious idea? My god- I thought Einstein was already dead!

:out:

[beermantm]

LOL I realize its the amount of money, the system is still going against popular belief and betting with Vegas. And of course it doesn't work all the time, and yes all my picks are against the public. Last I checked if I bet on a team that has 45% of the money going on it thats against the public. lol.... anyway good luck to you all and we will see how it plays out

Hmmmmm........... "Playz against the public" vs "fade the public"

Sounds pretty damm close to me when I started that 2 or three years ago on this board............. which I'm sure wasn't anythihng new then either...........

In your quote there you say the last time you checked when you bet a team that has 45% of the money going on it........

Can you tell me how you know how much money is going on a game?

Maybe you can teach me a bit about how this whole things works..............you know this unique betting system and information...............While your at it why not write up everything we need to know to get us all up to speed??



:puke:

[Pee Wee]

Isn't everybody entitled to his/her opinion here? There are no perfect systems or cappers....simmer down and let's not crucify his idea until it fails...but not before!:argue:

[Q-Unit]

Originally posted by Pee Wee
Isn't everybody entitled to his/her opinion here? There are no perfect systems or cappers....simmer down and let's not crucify his idea until it fails...but not before!:argue:

Good point, only thing is it isnt a new idear. :thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

Yes, everyone is entitled to their opinion.

I believe what most of these guys were pointing out that there's more to it than just playing against the public, and really the plays he made plays against, or actually suggested making plays against since I don't really see anything officially stating he played them, are not even the biggest public plays, or even close to it...as Billy pointed out.

[Stifler's Mom]

Vegas cleaned up on you 70% of people, AGAIN

I also don't think too many people take too kindly to this type of attitude.

[yomonte]

Good one stif. I don't think he is going to make it. He sure sounds familiar. He has 5 posts and they are all being merged as I have already meerged some this morning. Yeppir, he sure sounds familiar. LOL

[MORTY48]

newbie to newbie -I think you would be better off Just putting down your picks with some brief explanations why you like em -maybe keep a record-ask a few questions and earn some respect first from the veterans.Ive tailed alot of these guys for a while .Your not going to teach them anything new.
Keep it humble brother!!!!!!!1

[howdywinner]

How do we know about that Fading the Public Picks and where we can go to Please ! I need that Info real bad
Thanks alot

[BillyBarooooooo]

Originally posted by Pee Wee
Isn't everybody entitled to his/her opinion here? There are no perfect systems or cappers....simmer down and let's not crucify his idea until it fails...but not before!:argue:

I'm Not Crucify his idea and I don't think anyone else is either NEWBIE! Its all in the way he presents it and talks to the people in the forum! NEWBIE you hear to post plays or just get in the middle of things???? 23 post and not one play! :dunno:


BB

[BillyBarooooooo]

Originally posted by adamfred
Well I hate being right. I really really do. Vegas cleaned up on you 70% of people, AGAIN. Anyway, onto this coming NFL weekend -

Minnesota +3
San Fran +13.5
Buffalo +2.5
Oakland +1

All wagers are going against the public and could someone please explain to me the Atlanta and Seattle pick em spread?!?!?! I mean I'm ALL FOR fading the public, but I don't know if I can hop on Seattle for this game. But like i've always said, Vegas is smarter than us and I can almost guarantee they know something we don't. When they set this line they knew EVERYONE would go Atlanta and they plan on cleaning up. LOL they will probably get my money this one time too unless someone can give me an explanation of why this so seemingly mismatched game has a PK line. The only explanation I have is Atl will be drained from their emotional win at home on Monday night, its a short week for them, and maybe Vegas sees a letdown this coming weekend for them. Who knows but this bet seems too good to be true. Thanks guys.
Adam


Damn it and I was going to unload on Oakland tonight!!!!!

BB:thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

Guess Vegas cleaned up on him today.

Sucks when you're a sarcastic MF and the tables get turned on ya, doesn't it?

I like Oakland too by the way Billy :gulp:

[GMoney]

Good thing you hate being right Adam, because so far today you are completely wrong

0-3:thumbs:

I'm going to do the most worthwile thing anyone has done in this thread...





















:flush:


ahhhh

[yomonte]

:cheers:

Go Atlanta, Jeeez

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by BillyBarooooooo
I'm Not Crucify his idea and I don't think anyone else is either NEWBIE! Its all in the way he presents it and talks to the people in the forum! NEWBIE you hear to post plays or just get in the middle of things???? 23 post and not one play! :dunno:


BB



B.Barooooooooooo!!:bbang: WORD!!!!! :thumbs:

[Q-Unit]

blah blah blah he's wrong, so what
like he ACTUALLY played em. never said he did, just that we the "public" are stupid and Vegas will keep taking our money.
:huddle: :bbang: :yahoo: :punch: :welcome:

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by Q-Unit
blah blah blah he's wrong, so what
like he ACTUALLY played em. never said he did, just that we the "public" are stupid and Vegas will keep taking our money.
:huddle: :bbang: :yahoo: :punch: :welcome:



:gulp:

[GMoney]

i got the runs



:flush:

[beermantm]

Another good example of moronic people thinking they know something when they know almost nothing.............

I can garantee this guy thinks he pays juice when he loses a wgaer too!!!

I can already tell he has no concept of anything in sportsbetting..............

I explain juice or vig to people and they say yeah but thats not how it works in the real world..............

Well if you don't understand the mechanics how can you understand anything??

It's like trying to shoot par on an 18 hole course but you never golfed before...........

If you don't know how the beast works...........you can't beat it, hurt it or kill it........... But when you learn what it takes............ You can wear it down and wear it out...........and eventually win the fight.

[recovering77]

Well I'm gonna risk getting harassed here, but he's right.

I just took a look at the ATS on wagerline.
There were 8 games today where the public bet 60% or more on.
The public went 2-6 today.

I'm sure it will even out by the end of the season, but I go with this quote......

"If gambling made sense and was easy, everyone would be a winner and Vegas would be out of business."

Therefore when 80% of public is picking a game like San Fran and the Rams, theres no way the Rams are gonna cover.

[rjp]

beerman, you missed our earlier discussion on vig in the NCAAFB forum. :gulp:

[JulieH]

I used the "fade the public" (goofy name I think) but only bet on NFL O/U lines. I combined it with my long held theory that the refs play around with that number all the time.

I date a big time gambler - by that I mean he gambles a lot, not that he's any good. He always seems to be working a system, and they always seem to work just long enough to convince him that he's hit on something, and then they fall apart - so I'm not getting too excited, but.........

Playing the O/U in only games played in the NFL I would have gone 8-3-1 by "fading the public". I didn't play everygame and actually went 2-0 on the games I played. In any case, it seems like a worthwhile system to watch.

[Rothko1000]

Something very similiar which is popular in this forum is fading my plays! LOL!

I've always said a shiny coin or a good service can make you loads of cash! LOL!

Fading the public, listening to "steam", playing trends/stats can't account for fumbles, interceptions, bad snaps, missed field goals, etc........

Using some info is fine but computer generated programs that spits out plays are equal to or worse than gambling services! No offense to anyone! LOL! It's bullshit and it's insulting to good ole' traditional capping skills!

Do what you enjoy and roll with it! That's the fun in betting these ball games! There isn't one sure fire way of capping/betting games! Everyone has their own niche!

[SkinsFan]

I make my NFL plays based on the color and texture of my dookie on saturday morning!

:thumbs:

:flush:

[JB]

Based on the color of my dookie this morning...I feel it time to close this thing.