Need advice on 3 week one NFL games [Archive] - Ultimatecapper Sports Gambling Forums

WildBillPicks7

08-31-2005, 10:54 AM

Hey Reaves, just a lil info to help ya.

St. Louis -4.5 over sanfran
In my estimation this line is under priced and it will jump before the kickoff. San Fran as a dog in this series has proven to be money, however last year they lost at home to the Rams 24-14. The average pts combined by both teams the last 3 games at SF is 42. The margin of victory is 4 1/2 for the Rams. Add to the fact that the 49'ers have a new coach and are trying to put a new system into place and look to put 2004's lousy season behind them, the team with proven vets and an opportuned defense will probably win this game. Play the money line if you can as well as Steven Jackson, Marc Bulger and the 4 amigo receivers will have a hay-day vs the 49'ers in the waning moments of this game in my opinion. You have to put pre-season stuff away but don't shy away from it as well when it comes to evaluating the talent and how that talent performed in the pre-season. Bulger looks good, and thus far the 49'ers have overachieved as most teams put in their 2nd and 3rd teamers in before the 2nd half in the 49'ers pre-season games. Tim Rattay has a quick trigger and is good with accuracy however the Rams' defense is quick and will blitz and stunt the Niners o-line the whole game.

Denver -4.0 over miami
Last year in Denver, the mile high air, the Broncs beat the Phins 20-17. New Coach Saban looking to make a statement in his first year and he's already being bashed by the presses and ESPN radio when the opportunity arises. He's not stupid, as evidenced by his career in college football yet many don't remember his days as an assistant in the NFL. Miami has some injured players returning from 2004 that are 100% this year and with the addition of very few free-agents, this club is going to have to discover itself pretty quick. The Broncos on the other hand have a healthy backfield to date with Mike Anderson, Quentin "smurf-man" Griffin, and others, as well as a decent receiver corps. The Broncos defense was taken from the Browns' roster cuts basically. Jake the snake Plummer has yet to prove he's a quality NFL caliber QB who can lead a team in the post-season. The Dolphins defense will be just as good if not better than last year in which they lost a lot of close games, even without a running game. They won't have Ricky Williams until game 5 and Ronnie Brown has yet to prove to anyone he's a stellar star to be. The QB situation isn't a bad one for the Phins and Feeley is just OK, however the Phins did come back and beat the Patriots when most folks went to sleep on MNF last year if you remember. Any home dog getting more than 3 points in their first game would be a decent play in my opinion if you look at the history between these two teams when they play each other. Pasadena or dog for me or play the under of 38 1/2.

Green Bay +130 over detroit
Lastly, Brett Favre has a new found energy to try and guide his team back to the promise land for 2005-06. He's been brutal playing in indoor stadiums on the road and versus the Lions, except last year he torched the Lions 38-10. The Pack also added a defensive guru from the Phins in Coach Bates, and the passion and leadership of Brett Favre could be enough for the Packers in this game. The Lions on MNF this past week looked like crap vs the Rams and Harrington proved he wasn't able to get out of the grasp enough times and scramble to find his receivers. The Lions have a capable receiver lineup with some huge targets and the addition of Marcus Pollard, however, they have to be able to stop people and the Rams ran over them and thus far in pre-season the Lions offense has stunk. Will it stink in week 1? More than likely unless something dramatic happens and Joey Harrington gets a match lit under his ass. Kevin Jones is a good RB, however if you watched him block, I'd cringe like he did twice, back to back trying to block during the blitz the Rams put on the Lions. Right now the Lions are favored by 2 1/2 and by game time the line will probably be a pickem or the Packers by 2. The Packers offensively have a very quiet list of receivers who Favre' can pass to including Donald Driver and Bubba Franks. The Packers defense has been inconsistent the last 2 years and they should improve this year but how much? These two teams have average a combined total of 50 pts the last 3 played in Detroit. I just don't see how the Lions are going to score and the Packers don't run up points as quickly as they did in the past and now with a defensive minded coach helping the Pack, this game could be a very boring tilt on TV. These two teams have quality kickers and it will come down to field position and who turns the ball over the least. The Lions thus far have scored, 3, 13 and 13 pts respectively going into week #4. The Packers have scored 10, 7 and 3 respectively as well with Favre playing more than he did last year in pre-season. This game is a Pasadena for me as well.

GL to you on your decisions.

WB:thumbs: