Stifler's Mom
08-18-2005, 05:09 PM
NY Mets -126
Duke has shown lately that he's human, with his ERA jumping from under 1.00, to 2.13 because of a 4.12 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Mets excel against LHP, hitting .276 overall and a very nice .289 at home for the season. Mets are 12-3 in their last 15 games, 5-0 in their last 5 at home, and just have much more offensive firepower than the Pirates, even without Piazza and Cameron. 70%+ hammering Pittsburgh as a dog is never good in any situation either.
Nationals +1.5 -135
OK, so both of these pitchers suck, and to make a play on this game based on either one of them seems a bit futile....but I am looking at the fact that when they lose, Washington loses by 1 run nearly every game. Combine that with the % at which ML doubleheaders split and I think the value of this play far exceeds the -135 odds. I did take notice that the Phils have swept 9 of their last 13 doubleheaders however, which is why I went ahead and took the +1.5 runs.
Brewers +1.5 +100
Houston just isn't scoring lately. Clemens has had so many outstanding performances this year, yet has often been the victim of little/no offense. Everyone and their mother, sister and brother are pounding Houston -1.5 it would seem, and I've found that in these situations, normally the team giving -1.5 does not cover....so put me down on Milwaukee and I'll take my chances.
Arizona +137
Wrong favorite here. Vargas has far outperformaned Marquis recently, and had an outstanding performance vs the Cards in his last start against them, yet was the victim of a 2-1 hard luck loss. Marquis has a 7.50 ERA and a WHIP of almost 2 in his last 3 starts, while Vargas has an ERA of 2.53 in his last 3, and a WHIP of under 1 in the same time. I don't care for going against the Cards, but these numbers show way too much value to pass up IMO.
San Diego/Florida over 7 +120
I see a whopping 90% on the under in this game...plus a few touts calling it a "sweet" play. I'll just fade everyone and hope these 2 shitbag offenses can score some runs here, lol. One concern I do have is that home plate umpire Mike Winters has gone under in 7 straight, 9 of his last 10 and 18 of 26 this season, despite only calling 62.3% strikes, which really isn't very high.
This game actually stinks so badly of an under I'm surprised it's not O/U 6.5 or less. I've learned however, that these umpire normally things start to average out, and that more often than not these "obvious" plays end up losing, so I hope tonight is the night that happens with this umpire and this is one of those games.
Atlanta/LA Dodgers over 9 -120
Both of these teams have been going over the total at an alarming rate lately. Both have shitty bullpens and neither starting pitcher tonight is anything special. Atlanta has been tearing the cover off the ball, and I expect they will get to Weaver for a big inning at some point tonight, as I have seen Weaver implode many times in the past when he gets in trouble. Thomson is fresh off the DL and to me that means an early entrance for the crappy Braves bullpen and plenty of chances for the Dodgers to score. Tonight's umpire Paul Nauert has been calling some unders lately, but the over is 5-0 in Weaver's last 5, 7-3 in the Dodgers last 10 games, and 6-1 in the Braves last 7 games....and I believe the stats and points I made above are more important than who the umpire is, so I am looking for the over trend for these 2 teams to continue.
2 units each
Duke has shown lately that he's human, with his ERA jumping from under 1.00, to 2.13 because of a 4.12 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Mets excel against LHP, hitting .276 overall and a very nice .289 at home for the season. Mets are 12-3 in their last 15 games, 5-0 in their last 5 at home, and just have much more offensive firepower than the Pirates, even without Piazza and Cameron. 70%+ hammering Pittsburgh as a dog is never good in any situation either.
Nationals +1.5 -135
OK, so both of these pitchers suck, and to make a play on this game based on either one of them seems a bit futile....but I am looking at the fact that when they lose, Washington loses by 1 run nearly every game. Combine that with the % at which ML doubleheaders split and I think the value of this play far exceeds the -135 odds. I did take notice that the Phils have swept 9 of their last 13 doubleheaders however, which is why I went ahead and took the +1.5 runs.
Brewers +1.5 +100
Houston just isn't scoring lately. Clemens has had so many outstanding performances this year, yet has often been the victim of little/no offense. Everyone and their mother, sister and brother are pounding Houston -1.5 it would seem, and I've found that in these situations, normally the team giving -1.5 does not cover....so put me down on Milwaukee and I'll take my chances.
Arizona +137
Wrong favorite here. Vargas has far outperformaned Marquis recently, and had an outstanding performance vs the Cards in his last start against them, yet was the victim of a 2-1 hard luck loss. Marquis has a 7.50 ERA and a WHIP of almost 2 in his last 3 starts, while Vargas has an ERA of 2.53 in his last 3, and a WHIP of under 1 in the same time. I don't care for going against the Cards, but these numbers show way too much value to pass up IMO.
San Diego/Florida over 7 +120
I see a whopping 90% on the under in this game...plus a few touts calling it a "sweet" play. I'll just fade everyone and hope these 2 shitbag offenses can score some runs here, lol. One concern I do have is that home plate umpire Mike Winters has gone under in 7 straight, 9 of his last 10 and 18 of 26 this season, despite only calling 62.3% strikes, which really isn't very high.
This game actually stinks so badly of an under I'm surprised it's not O/U 6.5 or less. I've learned however, that these umpire normally things start to average out, and that more often than not these "obvious" plays end up losing, so I hope tonight is the night that happens with this umpire and this is one of those games.
Atlanta/LA Dodgers over 9 -120
Both of these teams have been going over the total at an alarming rate lately. Both have shitty bullpens and neither starting pitcher tonight is anything special. Atlanta has been tearing the cover off the ball, and I expect they will get to Weaver for a big inning at some point tonight, as I have seen Weaver implode many times in the past when he gets in trouble. Thomson is fresh off the DL and to me that means an early entrance for the crappy Braves bullpen and plenty of chances for the Dodgers to score. Tonight's umpire Paul Nauert has been calling some unders lately, but the over is 5-0 in Weaver's last 5, 7-3 in the Dodgers last 10 games, and 6-1 in the Braves last 7 games....and I believe the stats and points I made above are more important than who the umpire is, so I am looking for the over trend for these 2 teams to continue.
2 units each