Sat Sept 3 - Boise St @ Georgia

[Stifler's Mom]

Hey guys, don't know if anyone has posted anything pertaining to this game yet cause I haven't had the chance to get caught up with reading all the threads here in the college foots area, but this game really stands out to me as a LIVE dog.

I am NOT a big fan or Boise St, but without going into a ton of detail, I think Boise will win this game SU and they are currently getting +6.5 points (down from +8.5 at opening) and either ML (when it's posted) or taking the points (only place I've found the line so far is caribsports.com) looks like a helluva value to me.

I hate to lay bets so far in advance, for obvious reasons like unforseen circumstances, injury, suspension, etc...but I may have to do it here before this line moves down any further.

Anyway, I was curious as to what some of you other guys have to say about this game.

Nice to think that FOOTBALL season (college and pro) is almost here :gulp:

[Rammajamma32]

I was living in Athens all spring and my house was directly across the street from the practice field, so i got a chance to watch them every practice and every scrimmage at Sanford Stadium. here is my take:

UGA looks pretty strong despite losing Pollack, Greene, Odell Thurman, and Thomas Davis. I think their biggest questions will be on the D-line and linebackers, as that is where they stand to play all new players. DJ Shockley is a very talented and gifted QB with plenty of experience in games over his career at UGA. All new wide receivers will be a huge question mark for the offense, but they have a stable of runningbacks with Thomas Brown, Kregg Lumpkin, and Danny Ware and an experienced OL which looked very good this spring and should be very strong this season.

My opinion of how the game will go is like this:
UGA is known for starting slow and struggling early on with opponents at the beginning of the season. Despite this, I think they will be very fired up for this game and Shockley will want to show the Georgia faithful that he's the real deal. Do you remember Charlie Ward at FSU? Well, Mark Richt was the genius behind that offense, and he's dusted off the ole Charlie Ward playbook for this season since Shockley is essentially his twin. I saw it in the plays they rand and the offensive sets, among other hints.

I think Boise State comes down and plays a hard game, keeping it close until the 3rd quarter, when the heat and humidity start to get to the team and they start cramping up and hurting from fatigue, brought on by the extremely different climate. I knew this game would open up at around 7 points for the spread, and I told myself that anyhting less than 7 and I was on the dawgs. I am taking the dawgs, expecting them to be leading by 7 and win by 10 going away with a late FG. Good luck, and again, these are just my opinions.

[DZbettin]

I would take boise state if it was more than a TD. No way i touch 6.5, though you may prove to be right.

[bpoint]

Similar setup second game of the season for Boise in 2002. Boise St. was a 7 point dog at Arkansas and lost 14-41. Their only loss of the season, Boise trounced all other teams by 20 or more points and went on a 9-1 ats tear. Seems like their QB may have been injured for that game though.

Boise has played Oregon St. tough the last 2 years, and was quite impressive against Louisville last year in the bowl game.

Had a tough time with UTEP, Tulsa, and San Jose St. on the road last year. (2 ot's at San Jose St. as a 33 point favorite...ouch!)

Tough call.

[ziqux]

Nice analysis. As Ramma pointed out, UGA DEF probably not going to be as strong with losses of those players, not to mention loss of DC Van Gorder to Jags. Add the fact that Boise probably wants to prove a point, I like BSU if its over 7 pts.

I'd like to see a O/U, i'd take the over up to around 50pts. I dont think UGA is going to stop the BSU passing game, and I dont think BSU is going to stop UGA rushing.

[dead garcia]

Stiff I am looking at Boise to struggle with this game.....they have been awesome against the WAC teams and lesser foes but have not fared well against the BIG schools.....in the past 5 years they are 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS against the larger schools when on the road.....they gave up 24 ppg last year and that was with limiting Hawaii to 3 and Idaho to 7.....they dont have the offensive guns they've had in the past....the grass and weather at Sanford Stadium most certainly favors the Dawgs and you cant expect GA to be looking ahead to my Gamecocks the following week as they play eachother week two or three every year and are 5-0 the last 4 years in games preceeding USC.....

[CANESBIGGDOGG]

As always Dead, Great insight.

[dead garcia]

nice to hear from you my friend....what's the skinny on the canes for 2005? I have them waaay up there to play this year.....their D should be very very tough to move the ball against this year.....what's the inside poop on our local Delaware boy Orien Harris this year....I see him joining older brother Kwame in the bigs next year.....also see he is topping 300lbs starting this year....jeez....what's in the water down there....andro?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally posted by dead garcia
jeez....what's in the water down there....andro?

the 'canes get their water shipped straight from Baltimore.

[Stifler's Mom]

Thanks for the great insight guys....and those are definitely some valid points. It's always nice to hear others opinions on things, cause at least for me, once I decide I like a certain play, I have a hard time considering the negative points to that play on my own. Plus, I am definitely not as wise in the college football world as many of you, as my capping style tends to favor professional sports more.

I was aware that Boise tends to struggle away from their ugly blue smurf turf, and that despite Boise looking flashy against WAC teams, this is definitely a step up in competition for them.

I just think that this seems like a bit too many points here for Boise to be getting against an UGA team with so many important losses from last year, and who isn't really known for blowing teams out in the past anyway.

I think I'll probably wait it out until the night before the game and watch the line movement and where the majority are going with their plays....and then decide.

If anyone is interested, when I checked last night, it was 75% UGA and 25% Boise St (at caribsports.com), despite the line dropping 2 points from opening, although it was just a small number of plays so far.

Thanks again :thumbs:

[kilbane]

Boise just lost 2 starters for disiplinary reasons. Will not play against Ga or maybe all year!

[Rammajamma32]

The line is now at 7.

[WildBillPicks7]

Stif good luck with this game. I had it circled when it first came out in advanced future odds back this spring.

While Ramma & Dead have some good insights they've failed to cover what both teams have coming back and what they have lost.

Georgia lost a quality QB and defensive players as well as WR Reggie Brown. They do return DJ Shockley who threw for 43.3% last year and 4 touches to 1 INT. They return their backfield with Thomas Brown and Danny Ware. Receivers they return Leonard Pope, Sean Bailey who caught 39 passes and 9 td's between them. On defense they are tough in the middle in the line and in the backer corps as well as DB's. I don't see this team duplicating the success they had last year where they scored close to an average of 28 pts and giving up nearly 17 points. That's only an 11 pt edge, granted they played in a tough conference in the SEC, if you call that tough last year, which I felt was a very mediocre SEC conference, anyways, Georgia as well in it's opening home games have failed to cover vs Middle Tennessee, Clemson and Arkansas St the last 3 lined openers.

Boise State on the other hand has a very under-rated coach and yes they play in a weaker conference, but you don't go undefeated and lose a close one to Louisville with subpar players do you? Boise State average 49 pts and gave up 26 pts per game last year, returning 7 offensive and defensive starters including QB, Jared Zabransky who ran for 570 yrds which could be something that the Dawgs won't be able to cover as this kid is not afraid to pull the ball down and run or call his own number. Lee Marks is a quality scat back as well running for over 1,000 yrds last year and 2 touches. Zabransky had 13 running Tds. Passing Z threw for 63%, 16 tds and 12 INTS and 2927 yrds. Drisan James is a good receiver and this club always brings in quality JUCO transfers that no one pays attention to all that much. The Broncos are also 9-5-1 on grass as stated in Phil Steele's preview and 7-2-1 last 10 as an away dog. Their front 4 is very tough and will give the Dawgs fits running the ball. Believe it or not as well, It does get hot in Idaho and it's a dry heat in which the kids have to drink more water. In Georgia it's not going to be a dry hot, but a humid hot as Ramma so kindly said, and that ain't gonna make a difference. Both of these teams have very good coaches and both make adjustments better than anyone in the country.

7 points in my book is right on the number from oddsmakers, however, talent, depth, coaching and special teams will make the difference in this game.

First instinct said to take Boise and I'm not going to change my mind on it. Last time I remember folks trying to change my mind on a game similar to this was my first wager in 1981 when Jeff Hostetler of WVA was a 19 pt dog to Oklahoma on the road and the Mountaineers won easily in Norman, Oklahoma. I'll remember that bet as it was my first one and I was the only nut out of 25 players in our locker room to take them and I ante'd up huge that day. IT was my only wager that year too..hehehe...

One other note, Dan Hawkins is in his 5th year this year with Boise and is 44-7 straight up and that's since 2001. Yes they got beat by S Carolina his first year and first game out and they lost to Washington State that year as well, however in those losses that he's had out of 7, 3-4-1 ATS...Richt is in his 5th season as well and vs Non-conference is, 14-0 straight up vs clubs like Northwestern Louisiana, Marshall, Middle Tennesse, undefeated vs GA TECH, Clemson, UAB, Georgia Southern 1-aa power, New Mexico State and Arkansas State. Dawgs beat UAB in 2003 16-13 at home as a 29 pt favorite. Vs Midd Tenn failed to cover 29 pts as well, failed to cover vs Marshall as 18 1/2 pt chalk, failed to cover as 8 pt chalk to Clemson. All of these games were at home.



GL Stif and anyone who plays the Broncos like us!!

OUTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!

WB:thumbs:

[dead garcia]

I have been really capping this game hard and it is all gonna boil down to how the Boise D line holds up against the gargantuan dawg O line.....experience abounds on both sides as GA returns their entire 5 starting O linemen who average 313 lbs....if they can push around the considerably smaller Boise D line they have a backfield with Brown and Ware that are both gonna rush for over 1000 yards this year.....they could really control the TOP and keep the Smurfs O off the field....gl on the pick....

[WildBillPicks7]

Originally posted by dead garcia
they could really control the TOP and keep the Smurfs O off the field....gl on the pick....

Thanks Dead for the luck...Smurfs? LMAO...not so fast my friend as Lee Corso would say...Newcomer DE, Dennis Ellis 6-3 270, 30 sacks in JC, Andrew Browning 6-0 278 DT, DT Alex Guerrero 6'1 293 and DE Mike Williams (4.6,40) 6'3 244, 4 1/2 sacks last year, these guys aren't that small and most O lines as you pointed out for the Dawgs are huge these days and if they don't average close to 313 lbs, then there is something wrong... I ain't afraid to eat crow if Boise loses by the spread, however at this moment and time, I just don't see it happening.

I'm sure you are good at what you do capping wise Dead. We all have our own systems and the way we match up clubs. Best of luck to you this season and on this game.


GLTA

WB:thumbs:

[Rammajamma32]

Nice analysis Wild Bill. And actually, I did cover who UGA lost and who they have coming back with the exception of the WR's. Didn't know so much about the Broncos, so I stayed with what I was most familiar with in providing insight. The game is a late afternoon game (5:30) so the humidity factor I brought in will not play out as much as I originally thought. I still like the Dawgs, and good luck to everybody on Boise State.

[BigDegenerate]

Jucos sound impressive for the smurfs, but they put up these numbers in juco, and on 9/3 they're lining up against an o-line with 2 years experience as a unit in the SEC.

I'm on UGAy. i see them pounding it out with the expereinced line and IMO a top 3 backfield in the nation.

A more interesting matchup to me is UGAy's secondary against Boisie's pass attack.

[Kevin]

Thanks for starting this post stif.

This game intrigues the hell out of me and the answer is probably to keep away from it. Lotsa bizarre intangibles.

The one I cant get over is strength of conference and the fact that boise doesnt play that well away from home.

I hate to lay points though. Id be surprised if Boise won at Georgia though.

[Stifler's Mom]

I have been watching this line as compared to the amount of wagers on UGA, and just after opening at +8.5, it dropped to +6.5, with 75% on UGA at that time, as I stated before.

Now it has gone back up to +7, and the number of wagers at the same place (Caribsports) has increased to a very large 90% on UGA, which I assume moving the line thru the key number of UGA -7 to UGA -6.5 after the early hit they apparently took on Boise at +8.5 was supposed to accomplish, so the book can even out their action as much as possible.

I remember this exact same thing happening on an early season game last year....the first game of the year actually. It was a Thursday night ESPN game between USC and VA Tech. The total opened at about 58 or something obscene, considering the strength of the 2 team's defenses and that defenses are normally ahead of offenses at that point in the season also.

It was NAILED by sharpies all the way down to about 50 or 51 (which is obviously a much bigger move than we're talking about here)....but then continued to climb back up to in the neighborhood of 54 by game time with the public siding on the over at nearly 75%.

I hopped on the under in the low 50's and started my season off with an EASY winner....as I believe the total number of points scored in that game was in the low 20's.

I expect to be able to get at least +7.5 or +8 on Boise by the time the 3rd of Sept rolls around, and if so, I can't pass it up and hope for the same results here.

Unfortunately this is the ONLY CFB game I have even made any attempt to cap so far, lol....i guess i better get my butt in gear cause the season is coming up sooner than later :thumbs:

[raidernick]

are you kidding me.....

boise is going to make a statement to the bcs and the rest of the nation by beating this georgia team by at least a touchdown. this is not just another slap dick team that tries to get out the shadows of the big market teams. coach hawkins has this team believing big and they will perform.

take the over and the points......

:thumbs:

[HACK]

BOISE ST!! you have got to be kiddin' me.

DAWGS roll BIG.

[knicks25111]

georgia should win this game by 2 TDS. They are too big up front and will wear Boise down in the 2nd half

[bpotter74]

Since I am a Bulldog fan I can say Boise St. is the enemy and must die. :fire: This is the SEC baby. I hope there is blood flowing through the streets of Athens and half of Boise's team leaves in meat wagons. Shockley gets his chance and it's gonna be a Shocker! LOL. GO DAWGS!!! :bbang: