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View Full Version : Will Mike Lowell get a Hit: No +230?

Estimated Prophet
08-01-2005, 07:14 PM
hey yall, any thoughts on this one?? i never play props but for some reason this jumped out at me.


Yes -300
No +230


everything points to a Yes:
-he's .364 lifetime against Marquis,
-5 for his last 8, and 15 for his last 31 (.484)
-he's had a hit in 7 of his last 10 games, and 11 of his last 13 road games


that being said do I take a chance at +230 that he comes up empty? he's been inconsistent all year and the Marlins couldn't give him away the past couple weeks. is it worth a .5 unit or should I just lay off?


lol man props are a joke
rjp
08-01-2005, 07:17 PM
What's the average number of times he gets a hit?

You can use the Poisson distribution to get the "odds"...
Estimated Prophet
08-01-2005, 07:28 PM
poisson distribution, ha you lost me there? no idea on those odds, but he's 18 for his last 41 at Busch (.439).
ehh, i just liked the payout on someone who hasn't consistently hit for shit until the last 3 weeks. thanks though
rjp
08-01-2005, 07:31 PM
OK so the Poisson distribution says 0 hits will occur 41% of the time. Odds are with NO.

I based this on 0.9 hits per game. :thumbs:
rjp
08-01-2005, 07:33 PM
If you use the last 10 games then it's an average of 1 hit per game, so the probability of 0 hits is down to 37%.
rjp
08-01-2005, 07:35 PM
41% = +144 / 59% = -144
37% = +170 / 63% = -170


:thumbs:
Estimated Prophet
08-01-2005, 07:40 PM
lol i understand the logistics but i'm still alittle lost. i appreciate the help.


so he's had 18 hits in his last 11 games at Busch, or 1.64. what would that come to?
rjp
08-01-2005, 07:46 PM
That would be 19% of 0 hits... or +426

81% = -426

So at -426 expected odds, your expected ROI at -300 is 8.13%. I'd like to have more ROI, but it's your $$.

:thumbs:
rethumor
08-01-2005, 07:50 PM
Mike Lowell grand slam tonight :beer2:
Estimated Prophet
08-01-2005, 07:53 PM
right on, many thanks rjp!


Originally posted by rethumor
Mike Lowell grand slam tonight :beer2:


sure hope so now.
larry4498
08-01-2005, 08:31 PM
LOWELL JUST HIT A 2 RUN HOMER
rjp
08-01-2005, 08:32 PM
Nice hit. :thumbs:
rethumor
08-01-2005, 08:36 PM
told ya :beer2: beer

mike lowell :yeah::beer2:
Estimated Prophet
08-01-2005, 08:51 PM
good call dude, thanks for saving me on that! the exact reason props are a joke
rjp
08-01-2005, 08:53 PM
Ah, I thought you were looking for a reason to play YES.

Glad you saved some $$. :yeah:
Estimated Prophet
08-01-2005, 08:58 PM
lol i wouldn't lay -200+ for ichiro to get a hit, let alone mike lowell
rjp
08-01-2005, 09:02 PM
That's good to hear. Some people are nuts and would do it without any research. LOL
Loaded Shooter
08-01-2005, 09:25 PM
Dude.

I'm a numbers freak and you just whacked me on them stats.... MOST impressive.

I have been on the down low for a while. No cash and summer is way to fun to waste watching ball on tv. good to come back and see the guys.

Good luck to you all.

:thumbs:
rjp
08-01-2005, 09:40 PM
Good to see ya around, Loaded. :thumbs: