Stifler's Mom
06-15-2005, 05:29 PM
Had a little extra time this afternoon, so I figured I'd do some write ups with why I'm choosing the plays that I am today....who knows, it might actually help someone.
Toronto Blue Jays +128 2 units
The line jump here from Toronto +145 to Toronto +128 with only 41% on the Jays is pretty much enough reason to make a play on Toronto by itself. Also, the fact that St. Louis doesn't normally fare as well vs LHP added to me playing Toronto today. Another side note is that the home team is 8-2 in DiMuro's last 10 games BHP, so that can't be a bad thing, lol. Basically just following the bigger money here...as I see no other reason to play either side in this contest. Jim Edmonds will also not be playing in this game due to injury.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +120 2 units
Milwaukee is an awful road team. They just don't score on the road. Tampa is hitting nearly .300 at home for the entire season. The Brew Crew is 3-7 in Santos' last 10 starts, despite him having some pretty good numbers, which shows that they just don't score for him. Milwaukee is just 12-23 on the road this season, 6-16 in their last 22 road contests (since May 1st), after an impressive (for them) 6-7 start on the road in the month of April. Tampa is actually an above .500 team at home (17-13 i believe), so with the weak Brewers road bats combined with the productive Tampa home bats, this looks like a good spot for Nomo to settle down and collect his first win since May 26, when he shut down the also weak road sticks of Oakland in a 2-1 Tampa home victory.
San Diego Padres -119 2 units
Basically making a play on Eaton here. The Padres are 9-1 as a team in his last 10 starts and he has compiled a very impressive 1.10 WHIP and 2.25 ERA in his last 3. It doesn't hurt that the Tigers are 0-5 as a team in Maroth's (1.53 WHIP, 4.58 ERA last 3) last 5 starts either. Least importantly I did notice that the road team is 6-2 in the last 8 games with Hudson BHP for those who like to look at the umpire stats and trends.
This seemlingly low line worries me a bit, but I believe it can certainly be explained by SD being 3-7 in their last 10 games and not having much offense to speak of during that span. I'm banking on that they shouldn't need a ton of offense to win tonight with Eaton on the hill however, and if Eaton gets rocked, then the basis for my play (the strength of Eaton's pitching) is out the window anyway.
Cincinnati Reds +160 1.5 units
Not the strongest play of the day IMO, but the fact that Harang (1.12 WHIP, 4.12 ERA last 3) is facing Arroyo (2.29 WHIP, 11.37 ERA last 3) and that the line has dropped from +170 to +160 for Cincinnati, despite 77% being on Boston makes this worth a slightly smaller play....and believe it or not the REDS bullpen actually has better numbers than Boston's for the last 3 and overall for the season as well.
Cincinnati's 4-20 road record is the only thing keeping me from making this a full 2 unit play like the rest.
Oakland A's -124 2 units
To start off, Oakland is 9-2 in their last 11 home games, and 16-13 overall at home. The Mets are 10-17 on the road and have lost 5 of their last 6 games overall. A's starter Dan Haren has won his last 3 starts, while Mets starter Victor Zambrano has lost 3 of his last 4, mostly due to lack of offensive support however.
I don't really see things getting any better for the Mets offensively tonight though, and here's why.
They are hitting only .238 on the road vs RHP and .245 overall vs RHP. They have failed to score more than 3 runs in 6 of their last 7 games, 6 of which were home games. The Mets have faced 3 rookie starters this year. Each one has shut them out, with Joe Blanton being the most recent just last night. I feel this is significant because despite the fact that Haren is not a rookie, Beltran is the only Met that has any experience against him. Beltran is 2-5 against him. The rest of the Mets are all batting .000 vs Haren, of course most have not faced him...but that is why I think the 3 rookie shutouts vs NYM are significant in the first place, because the Mets just don't seem to be able to hit a pitcher they haven't seen before.
Of lesser importance (to me) is that the Mets have not won a game with Hirschbeck BHP since 2001 (0-5 in that span) and that their bullpen stinks (1.89 WHIP and 7.84 ERA last 3).
If I had a such thing as a "POD" where I raise the size of my play, this would be it....but I don't, so I ain't, LOL
Seattle Mariners +104 2 units
Despite a very good 36-29 record, the Phillies are only 14-18 on the road. The Phils also just had a streak of 12 wins in their last 13 tries (all at home) snapped last night by Seattle. Oddly enough Sele (0.98 WHIP, 2.33 ERA last 3) has been rather impressive this season after a few shaky, injury plagued seasons. Padilla (1.40 WHIP, 4.60 ERA last 3) has gotten better as time has gone on this year, but still nothing too impressive. Philly has a rather poor .238 road batting average vs RHP, and combined with Sele's impressive numbers, I think Philly will have a hard time scoring runs tonight, while Padilla should give up his share of walks like he usually does and that should translate into enough Seattle runs to get the job done here. I also like that the line has moved from Seattle +110 to Seattle +104 with only 38% of the plays coming in on Seattle, although that is not enough of a movement for me to make a play strictly based on it alone if I had not liked the play to begin with.
Adrian Beltre is likely out for Seattle in this contest, but he hasn't done shit anyway this year...so who cares.
Hope I didn't waste my time doing those writes and end up 0-6 :bang:
GLTA tonight :thumbs:
Toronto Blue Jays +128 2 units
The line jump here from Toronto +145 to Toronto +128 with only 41% on the Jays is pretty much enough reason to make a play on Toronto by itself. Also, the fact that St. Louis doesn't normally fare as well vs LHP added to me playing Toronto today. Another side note is that the home team is 8-2 in DiMuro's last 10 games BHP, so that can't be a bad thing, lol. Basically just following the bigger money here...as I see no other reason to play either side in this contest. Jim Edmonds will also not be playing in this game due to injury.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +120 2 units
Milwaukee is an awful road team. They just don't score on the road. Tampa is hitting nearly .300 at home for the entire season. The Brew Crew is 3-7 in Santos' last 10 starts, despite him having some pretty good numbers, which shows that they just don't score for him. Milwaukee is just 12-23 on the road this season, 6-16 in their last 22 road contests (since May 1st), after an impressive (for them) 6-7 start on the road in the month of April. Tampa is actually an above .500 team at home (17-13 i believe), so with the weak Brewers road bats combined with the productive Tampa home bats, this looks like a good spot for Nomo to settle down and collect his first win since May 26, when he shut down the also weak road sticks of Oakland in a 2-1 Tampa home victory.
San Diego Padres -119 2 units
Basically making a play on Eaton here. The Padres are 9-1 as a team in his last 10 starts and he has compiled a very impressive 1.10 WHIP and 2.25 ERA in his last 3. It doesn't hurt that the Tigers are 0-5 as a team in Maroth's (1.53 WHIP, 4.58 ERA last 3) last 5 starts either. Least importantly I did notice that the road team is 6-2 in the last 8 games with Hudson BHP for those who like to look at the umpire stats and trends.
This seemlingly low line worries me a bit, but I believe it can certainly be explained by SD being 3-7 in their last 10 games and not having much offense to speak of during that span. I'm banking on that they shouldn't need a ton of offense to win tonight with Eaton on the hill however, and if Eaton gets rocked, then the basis for my play (the strength of Eaton's pitching) is out the window anyway.
Cincinnati Reds +160 1.5 units
Not the strongest play of the day IMO, but the fact that Harang (1.12 WHIP, 4.12 ERA last 3) is facing Arroyo (2.29 WHIP, 11.37 ERA last 3) and that the line has dropped from +170 to +160 for Cincinnati, despite 77% being on Boston makes this worth a slightly smaller play....and believe it or not the REDS bullpen actually has better numbers than Boston's for the last 3 and overall for the season as well.
Cincinnati's 4-20 road record is the only thing keeping me from making this a full 2 unit play like the rest.
Oakland A's -124 2 units
To start off, Oakland is 9-2 in their last 11 home games, and 16-13 overall at home. The Mets are 10-17 on the road and have lost 5 of their last 6 games overall. A's starter Dan Haren has won his last 3 starts, while Mets starter Victor Zambrano has lost 3 of his last 4, mostly due to lack of offensive support however.
I don't really see things getting any better for the Mets offensively tonight though, and here's why.
They are hitting only .238 on the road vs RHP and .245 overall vs RHP. They have failed to score more than 3 runs in 6 of their last 7 games, 6 of which were home games. The Mets have faced 3 rookie starters this year. Each one has shut them out, with Joe Blanton being the most recent just last night. I feel this is significant because despite the fact that Haren is not a rookie, Beltran is the only Met that has any experience against him. Beltran is 2-5 against him. The rest of the Mets are all batting .000 vs Haren, of course most have not faced him...but that is why I think the 3 rookie shutouts vs NYM are significant in the first place, because the Mets just don't seem to be able to hit a pitcher they haven't seen before.
Of lesser importance (to me) is that the Mets have not won a game with Hirschbeck BHP since 2001 (0-5 in that span) and that their bullpen stinks (1.89 WHIP and 7.84 ERA last 3).
If I had a such thing as a "POD" where I raise the size of my play, this would be it....but I don't, so I ain't, LOL
Seattle Mariners +104 2 units
Despite a very good 36-29 record, the Phillies are only 14-18 on the road. The Phils also just had a streak of 12 wins in their last 13 tries (all at home) snapped last night by Seattle. Oddly enough Sele (0.98 WHIP, 2.33 ERA last 3) has been rather impressive this season after a few shaky, injury plagued seasons. Padilla (1.40 WHIP, 4.60 ERA last 3) has gotten better as time has gone on this year, but still nothing too impressive. Philly has a rather poor .238 road batting average vs RHP, and combined with Sele's impressive numbers, I think Philly will have a hard time scoring runs tonight, while Padilla should give up his share of walks like he usually does and that should translate into enough Seattle runs to get the job done here. I also like that the line has moved from Seattle +110 to Seattle +104 with only 38% of the plays coming in on Seattle, although that is not enough of a movement for me to make a play strictly based on it alone if I had not liked the play to begin with.
Adrian Beltre is likely out for Seattle in this contest, but he hasn't done shit anyway this year...so who cares.
Hope I didn't waste my time doing those writes and end up 0-6 :bang:
GLTA tonight :thumbs: