Florida (29-6) –3, o/u 129 vs. Georgetown (23-9), 9:40 p.m. Eastern, CBS
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
It’s the Big East vs. the SEC as the 7th-seeded Georgetown Hoyas challenge the 3rd-seeded Florida Gators in an NCAA Minneapolis regional semi-final Friday night at the MetroDome.In the first two rounds, the Gators dominated South Alabama and UW-Milwaukee, covering both games easily. On the season, Florida is shooting 51% from the floor (#1 in D1) and 40% from 3-point range, and they hit exactly those same numbers in their two tournament victories. The Gators also shoot 74% from the line.
G-Town beat Northern Iowa 54-49 as 4-point chalk in their first-round match-up, then pounded Ohio State 70-52 as underdogs in their second-round game.
Georgetown finished in a tie for fourth place with Marquette and Pittsburgh in the Big East regular season, then lost to Syracuse in the conference tournament.
Florida finished second in the SEC East Division this season, then won the conference tournament.
Florida lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament last season. Georgetown hasn’t played in the NCAA since 2001.
Florida is 18-11 against the spread this season, a solid 16-9 ats as chalk.
Georgetown is 15-13 vs. the number on the season, 5-3 ats as underdogs. The Hoyas have won outright four of the eight games in which they’ve gotten points.
The Gators played two games vs. Big East teams this season. They beat Syracuse by five points in November and defeated Providence by 10 in December.
The Hoyas beat Providence by 10 points in their only meeting with the Friars this season, and split two games with Syracuse.
Georgetown played one game against an SEC opponent this season, falling to Vanderbilt by seven points in November.
Florida beat the Commodores twice, by five and 23 points.
On the season, the Hoyas are shooting 47% from the floor, 36% from long range and 71% from the line.
Florida holds opponents to 41% shooting from the floor, Georgetown 42%; and both teams own +4.3 rebounds per game margins.
The Gators are good and young, starting four sophomores. And they have five players averaging in double figures in points per game this season.
Georgetown starts three sophomores and has four players averaging in double figures.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at usatoday.com rank Florida 5th at 90.6, Georgetown 14th at 87.6. The RPI at NCAAsports.com ranks the Gators #15, the Hoyas #36.
The Sagarin conference ratings rank the Big East as the toughest out of 31 D1 leagues, the SEC 4th-best.
The under is a collective 34-22 in Georgetown and Florida games this season. And that’s been the trend lately; the last five Hoya games have stayed under the total, as have five of the last seven Gator games.
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The Ultimatecapper.com Pick: This is a matchup that consists of two very solid teams that can do it from the inside and out. We very rarely like to go against a line move or side with the public consensus but we believe Florida wins and covers here. In all candidness though, this is not a good game to bet on as it offers very little value. Good luck!
