Cinderella Patriots Have Grown up Together
by Perry of
BetWWTS
George Mason’s unexpected berth in the Final Four is highlighting the value of experience, and is symbolic of the seismic effect the NBA is having on college hoops.
The No. 11 Patriots are a veteran-laden team with three seniors among their starters. Having played together longer, they have had a chance to develop team chemistry. They know each others’ strengths, weaknesses and style of play.
And even though the team may not have any NBA talent, the Patriots have the wisdom, poise and refined skills that can only come from additional experience at the college level, even if it is only in the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA).
That experience played a big role in the Patriots’ journey to the Final Four, especially against teams like North Carolina.
The Tar Heels have loads of talent, but the team is young and inexperienced. In fact, UNC lost its seven top scorers from last year’s national championship lineup. Of those seven, four were underclassmen who left college for the NBA draft.
As a result, coach Roy Williams was forced to start mostly freshmen this season. He did an admirable job leading the Tar Heels to a 23-8 straight up (SU) record, a Top 10 national ranking, and an invitation to the tournament. But once they made it to the Big Dance, UNC’s inexperience was evident and George Mason took advantage of it in their 65-60 victory in the second round.
The growing trend of underclassmen leaving college early for the NBA is undoubtedly having a bigger effect on major schools like UNC, which typically recruit the nation’s most talented players. Thus, as the top talent is skimmed off the top, we will likely continue to see a more level playing field in college hoops with more and more obscure schools like George Mason advancing deeper into the NCAA tournament.
That said, it will take a while before hoops watchers begin to overlook the hype and publicity surrounding big name schools. Because of this, major schools will continue to get the benefit of the doubt, and the most betting action.
This will mean more points for teams like George Mason, who are currently listed as a 6-point dog versus the No. 3 Gators, who they face on Saturday (6:07 p.m. ET, CBS).
In addition to the Tar Heels, the Patriots knocked off No. 6 Michigan St., a Final Four team from last year, and No. 1 UConn, chosen by many as a lock to win the tournament.
In all three games, the Patriots were listed as underdogs: +5 versus the Spartans in the first round, +6 versus the Heels in the second round, and +8 versus the Huskies in the Elite Eight.
The only game in which the Patriots were favored was against No. 7 Wichita St. in the Sweet 16. They beat the Shockers 63-55, covering the spread as a 2.5-point chalk.
The four straight wins against the spread (ATS) was nothing new for George Mason. The Patriots not only have the best betting record among the Final Four teams, they have one of the best betting records in all of college hoops.
GMU is currently 19-9-2 ATS, which ranks them sixth among all Division I teams. If you factor out the two pushes, the Patriots are beating the number about 68 percent of the time.
This is symbolic of how the Patriots, who have the most experience among all the Final Four teams, have continually been underestimated by bettors all year. Interestingly, their opponent this weekend has also been underestimated.
The Gators lost their three top scorers from last year and have no seniors among their starting five. Florida was no where to be found in the top preseason polls and few if anyone had them making a run at the national championship.
Yet, they were able to pull off a record of 31-6 SU as well as capture the SEC title for a second straight year. They then went on to knock off No. 1 Villanova to advance to the Final Four.
Like George Mason, Florida has covered the spread in all four of its tournament games. They also have one of the best betting records in college hoops at 19-11-1 ATS.
In the other Final Four game on Saturday, No. 2 UCLA will take on No. 4 LSU (8:47 p.m. ET, CBS). The Tigers opened as 2-point favorites.
UCLA is 2-2 ATS in the tournament but has an impressive 21-12 ATS record on the season. LSU is 3-1 ATS in the tournament and 15-14-2 ATS on the season.
