Miami Dolphins (9-7 last season, 2nd in AFC East) +1, o/u 34 ½ at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5, 2nd in AFC North), 8:30 p.m. Eastern Thursday, NBC
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
The 2006 NFL season kicks off Thursday night when the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers play host to the resurgent Miami Dolphins in a nationally televised bout at Heinz Field.
Pittsburgh struggled through a good part of last season, but won its last four regular-season games to claim a wild-card playoff berth. Then, of course, the Steelers went on that great road run through Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver to reach the Super Bowl, where they defeated the Seattle Seahawks for their fifth NFL title.
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This season, however, Pittsburgh will be without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first couple of games after he underwent an emergency appendectomy Sunday. So back-up Charlie Batch will get the season-opening start Thursday. Batch started two games for the Steelers last year when Roethlisberger was hurt, and Pittsburgh won both games. But they were against Green Bay and Cleveland, a couple of teams that combined to win 10 games last year.
Miami won its last six games last season to finish at 9-7 in head coach Nick Saban’s first season at the helm. But five of those wins came against Oakland, Buffalo, San Diego, the Jets and Tennessee, who went a combined 26-54 last season, and the sixth victory came against a New England team that was already locked into its’ playoff slot and had nothing to play for.
Off-season acquisition Daunte Culpepper will culminate an incredible recovery from a terrible knee injury by getting the start for Miami Thursday. Culpepper showed some promise during the exhibition season by completing 73% of his pass attempts, but his mobility is undoubtedly not was it has been in the past.
Miami is listed at +1163 to win the AFC title this season, and +1746 to win the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh is posted at +689 to win the AFC and +1459 to repeat as Super Bowl champs.
The Steelers averaged 139 rushing yards per game last year, while the defense held opponents to just 86 yards on the ground.
The Dolphins averaged 119 rushing yards per game last season, while the defense allowed an average of 111 ground yards.
These two teams last met for a regular-season game in 2004, when Pittsburgh held Miami to 169 total yards in a 13-3 Steelers win.
Miami and Pittsburgh played six games against common opponents last season. The Dolphins beat Denver 34-10 in Miami in the season opener, while the Steelers knocked off the Broncos in Colorado 34-17 in the AFC title game. Miami beat San Diego 23-21, while Pittsburgh beat the Chargers 24-22. The Dolphins defeated Tennessee 24-10, while the Steelers beat the Titans 34-7. Miami lost miserably to Cleveland 22-0, but Pittsburgh beat the Browns twice by scores of 34-21 and 41-0. And the Dolphins split two games with New England, losing 23-16 and winning 28-26 (in that game that meant nothing to the Patriots). The Steelers lost their game vs. New England 23-20.
Miami went 4-4 both straight up and against the spread in road games last year. Pittsburgh went just 5-3 SU at home last season, 3-4-1 ATS.
Pittsburgh opened up as 4 ½-point favorites for Thursday’s game, but after the news of Roethlisberger’s situation broke, that number was bet all the way down to a pick ‘em. The total on this game opened up at around 37 ½, but has been dropped three points to 34 ½.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: We really like Miami this year and even go as far as saying that we think they be a playoff team. With regards to this game however, we think too much is being made of Big Ben being out. The Pitt gameplan is one that allows for an interchangable QB. Charlie Batch is no John Elway but he is experienced and won't make mistakes. We LOVE the Steelers here at the deflated line! | 
