Kentucky Derby Betting Guide

Kentucky Derby betting can make even the most elite handicappers tear their hair out. Horses shipping in from all over the country to run further than they've ever run before over an unfamiliar racing surface, for unknown trainers and jockeys - all factors which make the Kentucky Derby the most difficult race on the planet to handicap - but also the most lucrative.

Last year, a $2 bet on the winner, Giacomo, returned $102.60. The $2 Exacta returned $9,185 and the $2 Trifecta returned $133,134.80. And you could have retired on the $2 Superfecta, which returned $864,253.50.

Thousands of excellent handicappers missed Giacomo - but history would have told them he had a shot in the race. He'd run a good fourth in the Santa Anita Derby -a race that has historically been a leading producer of Derby winners. And he'd finished fourth in his final prep. Not one Kentucky Derby winner had finished worse than fourth in their final prep race since 1957.

With history in mind, here are a few factors to consider when betting the Kentucky Derby.

Favorites rarely win the Derby. The average win payoff over the last 20 years is almost $30. In the last 15 years only two Derby favorites have won, and one of those still paid double digits. Betting against the favorite is a smart statistical move in this race.

Lone speed horses rarely win the Kentucky Derby. Only three of the last 20 Kentucky Derby winners were able to lead from flag fall to finish. It is a very rare horse indeed, that has the class speed necessary to open up early on the Derby field and maintain a clear advantage for a mile and a quarter. Pressers/Stalkers (within 2-4 lengths of the lead) have won this race five times in the last 20 years and rallying types have won it 12 times.

Horses with less than six career races rarely win the Kentucky Derby. In the last 20 years only one horse with less than six career starts has won the Derby and he had five starts. In the last six decades no horse with less than five starts has won the Derby. Foundation counts.

Horses that can't win stakes as a 3-year-old, probably can't win the Kentucky Derby. Sixteen of the last 20 Derby winners won a stakes race as a 3-year-old. Stakes wins as a 2-year-old aren't as important. Only eight of the last 20 Derby winners won a stakes race at the age of 2.

Workouts can't necessarily identify the winner of the Kentucky Derby, but they can reveal the losers. Horses that work slow prior to the Derby rarely win the big race. Sixty percent of the Derby winners in the last 20 years worked more than once at Churchill Downs, 65 percent of those winners posted one or more bullet works, and a whopping 70 percent of the Derby winners in the last 20 years had a fast work listed as "breezing" for their final workout.

The highest Beyer Speed Figure does not point to the Derby winner, but horses incapable of breaking the 100 Beyer mark at least once in their racing careers prior to the Derby, rarely win either. The horse with the top Beyer Speed Figure has won the Kentucky Derby only four times in the last 14 years. Keeping that in mind, only two horses who have failed to break the 100 Beyer mark in their racing lines prior to the Derby, have managed to win the big race in the last 20 years.

Only four horses since 1929 have managed to win the Kentucky Derby with a Dosage Index of 4.0 or higher and only two horses have won the Derby with a Dosage Index of 5.0 or higher.

Trainers and jockeys are important. The Kentucky Derby is a special kind of race with an elevated type of pressure like no other. If a trainer or jockey has proven they can handle the pressure with a Derby win or an in-the-money finish in the past, they deserve extra consideration. A winning jockey-trainer combo gives an even bigger edge to a horse. Even trainers that have won hundreds of graded stakes have trouble getting the job done in the Derby.

History is not infallible, but it can help you intelligently narrow down your Kentucky Derby betting options. And history does tend to repeat itself.

Does that mean we'll get another $100 winner this year?