Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview and Pick

The Dallas Cowboys, in search of an East Division championship, travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons who are clinging on to playoff hopes in the NFL Networks inaugural Saturday night prime time game.

Dallas, at 8-5, currently holds a 1 game lead over the New York Giants in the NFC East. Atlanta, at 7-6, is currently tied for the wild card spot but would be left out if the playoffs were today because of the tiebreakers.

The Cowboys have won 4 of their last 5 games but are coming off an embarrassing loss in Primetime last week as they were blown out by the New Orleans Saints by score of 42-17. Dallas is 5-2 with Tony Romo as the starting QB.

The Falcons have won their last 2 games after stop a mid season 4 game losing streak in the middle of the season. The defense has been a very stout unit the past 2 weeks giving up a total of 20 points in the 2 games combined.

Dallas is 7-5 against the spread this season, they are 4-3 straight up and 3-3 ATS on the road.

Atlanta is 7-6 ATS this season, and 3-3 both SU and vs. the number at home.

After 14 weeks of play, NFL home underdogs are a profitable 39-25 (61%) against the spread on the season.

Dallas starting QB, Tony Romo, has 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions for the Cowboys and sports a QB rating of 96.6 with a 65.2% completion rate.

Atlanta is led by the erratic but elusive Michael Vick who has 15 TDs and 10 interceptions on the year. His QB rating is 73.7 with a completion rate of 52.0 %. The biggest threat that Vick poses is his running legs as he has rushed for an amazing (for a QB) 934 yards but only 2 TDs on the season.

The Cowboys are outrushing opponents this season by a 131-96 yards-per-game average, while the Falcons are outrushing their opponents by a 198-103 YPG margin.

Dallas is averaging a very impressive 5.9 yards per play on the season while Atlanta is averaging 5.5 yards per play. The Cowboy defense has given up an average of 5.3 yards per play while the Falcons have given up an average of 5.6 yards per play.

These two teams have played five common opponents this season. In these games Dallas is 4-3 and averaging 24.7 points and gave up an average of 21.4 points. Atlanta is also 4-3 and is averaging 16.7 points and giving up an average of 16.3 against these 5 teams.

These two teams haven’t met since the beginning of the 2003 season when Atlanta beat Dallas 27-13. The teams have split the past 10 matchups but Atlanta has won the last 4.

Dallas ranks 4th in total offense averaging 373.4 yards per game. Atlanta ranks 10th with 336.8 yards per game.

On the defensive side of the ball the Cowboys rank 11th in total defense giving up 307.8 yards per game while the Falcons rank 21st giving up an average of 337.4 yards per game.

In scoring offense, Dallas also ranks 4th averaging 26.8 points per game and Atlanta ranks 20th averaging 18.8 points per game.

In scoring defense Dallas ranks 13th and Atlanta ranks 10th giving up 20.0 and 19.7 points per game, respectively.

The Falcons have some injury concerns as their top 2 RBs, Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood are both listed as questionable.

The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks Dallas #8 at 25.39, Atlanta is 19th at 19.37.

The O/U is 8-4 in Cowboy games this season, 3-9 in Falcon games.

Dallas opened up as a 3 point road favorite at most sportsbooks with a total of 43. The line has stayed at -3 but the juice has risen from -110 to -125. At the time of this writing, the public was backing the Cowboys 66%-34%.

The Ultimatecapper Pick: We absolutely hate laying points on the road but with the injury concerns and the erratic play of Michael Vick we are going to go with the Cowboys.