Clippers + 5/2, o/u 208 at Suns, 10:30 p.m. Eastern, TNT
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
After coming back from almost dead, the Phoenix Suns have new life, and now take on the up-and-coming Los Angeles Clippers in a Western Conference semi-final series beginning Monday night in Arizona.
Second-seeded Phoenix came back from a 3-1 series deficit to beat the Lakers in seven games in an emotional first-round match-up, while the sixth-seeded Clippers dispatched of Denver in five games in their first-round series.
These two teams split four games during the regular season, each winning once on the other’s home court. And none of the games had real close finals. The Suns won by 10 and 31 points, while the Clippers won by 10 and 14.
L.A. had a distinct advantage, though, on the boards in those regular-season meetings, outrebounding the Suns by an average of 15 per game.
The over/under went 2-1-1 during the regular-season series.
Phoenix is 34-11 straight up at home this season, 23-21 against the spread, 37-30 ats as favorites.
Los Angeles is 21-22 straight up on the road this season, 23-19 vs. the number, and 16-17 ats as underdogs.
The Clippers are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, outboarding opponents by more than 3 per game. The Suns, on the other hand, get outrebounded by more than 4 per game.
Phoenix, of course, can shoot the heck out of the ball. The Suns this season are shooting 48% from the floor, 40% from 3-point range and 81% from the free-throw line.
The Clippers, however, defend pretty well, limiting foes to just 43% field-goal shooting this season, 4th-best in the league.
The o/u is 21-20 in Clippers road games this season, 23-20 in Suns home games.
Phoenix is a rather heavy –240 favorite to win this series over the Clippers, who are listed at +200.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: This spread is tricky. We think Phoenix wins at home (hands down) but the spread is questionable. Thbe total is as well. We're putting out necks out here with a chalk choking moneyline play on the Suns at -240!
